Market Overview - The A-share market opened high and experienced a strong upward trend on March 14, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3420 points during the day [3][4][8] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3419.56 points, up 1.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.26% to 10,978.30 points [8][9] - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets rose, with notable performances in the insurance, food and beverage, gaming, and liquor sectors, while aerospace, power equipment, and electricity sectors showed weaker performance [8][11] Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 14.24 times and 38.63 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [4][16] - The total trading volume on March 14 was 18,413 billion, above the median of the past three years, suggesting robust market activity [4][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support, particularly in technology innovation, consumer stimulation, and green economy sectors, as well as the anticipated return of foreign capital due to the central bank's accommodative stance and expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][16] - Short-term investment preferences are shifting towards defensive sectors, with high-dividend assets performing steadily, while technology growth sectors face valuation pressures [4][16] - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities while balancing defensive and growth strategies, with particular attention to software development, internet services, finance, and liquor industries for short-term investment opportunities [4][16]

11750 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 权重行业领涨 沪指突破 3400 点 ——市场分析 相关报告 电话： 0371-65585629 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股小幅震荡》 2025-03-13 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股小幅震荡》 2025-03-12 《市场分析：军工消费行业领涨 A 股低开高 走》 2025-03-11 联系人： 李智 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10 号18 楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2025 年 03 月 14 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周五（03 月 14 日）A 股市场高开高走、震荡上行，早盘股指高开后 震荡上行，盘中股指在 3420 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指强势震荡， 盘中保险、食品饮料、游戏以及酿酒等行业表现较好；航天航空、 电源设备、电力以及电网设备等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现 震荡上扬的运行特征。创业板市场周五震荡上涨，创业板成分指数 全天表现强于主板市场。 ◼ 后市研判及投资 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the domestic gaming industry, with a steady increase in market size and player engagement, driven by high-quality game development and supportive government policies [33][34] - The AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and applications, particularly in enterprise-level deployments, which are expected to drive demand for computing power [30][32][20] - The semiconductor industry is on an upward trajectory, with strong performance in the domestic market and a forecasted increase in global semiconductor sales, particularly in memory products [27][28] Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index maintaining average P/E ratios that suggest a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][12] - Key sectors such as coal, electricity, and banking have performed well, while technology and automotive sectors have faced challenges [8][10] International Market Performance - International indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have shown declines, indicating a cautious global market environment [4] Industry Developments - The software industry in China is projected to grow at a slower pace, with revenue expected to reach 13.73 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 10% year-on-year increase [16] - The RISC-V ecosystem is rapidly developing, with significant investments and advancements in open-source architecture, which is expected to enhance domestic semiconductor capabilities [29] Government Policies and Economic Outlook - The 2025 Government Work Report emphasizes expanding domestic demand and implementing proactive fiscal and monetary policies to support economic growth [13][14] - The report outlines ten key tasks for 2025, focusing on enhancing the modern industrial system and promoting technological innovation [15] Sector-Specific Insights - The gaming industry is expected to benefit from a growing player base and increased consumer spending, with a focus on high-quality game development and international market competitiveness [33][34] - The AI and cloud computing sectors are poised for growth, driven by increased demand for AI applications and infrastructure investments from major tech companies [20][21][30]

计算机 分析师：唐月 登记编码：S0730512030001 tangyue@ccnew.com 021-50586737 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 计算机相对沪深 300 指数表现 -28% -18% -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 44% 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 重点关注子行业的主要数据和动态包括： 相关报告 （1）国产化：随着 Q4 美国对华制裁政策的进一步收紧，2024 年我国集成电路在进口依赖度比例为 78%，较 1-11 月回落 2 PCT，英伟达来自新加坡和中国区域收入占比都出现了下滑。 《计算机行业深度分析：三大要素齐发力， AI 应用步入全面加速期》 2025-03-07 《计算机行业月报：DeepSeek-R1 带来 AI 技术突破，持续关注 GPT-5 的推出进程》 2025-02-13 （2）AI：2025 年 2 月以来，xAI 和 Anthropic 分别发布了推理模 型来对标 DeepSeek-R1，两大闭源模型在产品能力并未显示出显 著差异，同时结合训练成本来看，也 ...

登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -17% -12% -6% -1% 4% 9% 14% 20% 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,358.73 | -0.39 | | 深证成指 | | 10,736.19 | -0.99 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,911.58 | -0.40 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 3,748.91 | -0.38 | | 中证 | 500 | 5,993.97 | -0.77 | | 中证 | 1000 | 6 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -17% -12% -7% -1% 4% 9% 14% 19% 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 2025.03 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,371.92 | -0.23 | 深证成指 | 10,843.23 | -0.17 | | | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | 沪深 | 300 | 3,927.23 | -0.36 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | 中证 | 100 | 3,763.39 | -0.44 | | 中证 | 500 | 6,040.50 | -0 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the government's focus on promoting high-quality development in the environmental protection equipment manufacturing industry, aiming for significant market share increases by 2027 [4][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a primary task for economic growth, indicating a shift towards a more consumption-driven economy [12][14] - The report notes that the AI application sector is expected to see accelerated growth, driven by advancements in AI models and increased enterprise-level deployment [31][33] Group 2 - The gaming industry is projected to experience steady growth, with a rise in the number of players and average revenue per user (ARPU), indicating a healthy demand for gaming products [34][35] - The report discusses the increasing competitiveness of Chinese games in overseas markets, suggesting a positive outlook for game exports [34][35] - AI technology is expected to enhance game development efficiency and creativity, potentially boosting user engagement and spending [34][35] Group 3 - The report indicates that the semiconductor industry is in an upward cycle, with AI being a significant growth driver, and forecasts a continued increase in global semiconductor sales [26][27] - The RISC-V ecosystem is rapidly developing, with projections for substantial market growth, highlighting the importance of open-source architectures in the semiconductor space [29][30] - The report suggests that the demand for NAND Flash memory is expected to improve due to various market factors, including AI applications and domestic manufacturers' growth [28][30] Group 4 - The food and beverage sector is showing signs of recovery, with notable increases in stock prices for various sub-sectors, particularly in alcoholic beverages and dairy products [39][41] - The report mentions a significant rise in fixed asset investments in the food manufacturing industry, indicating a positive trend in production capacity [40][41] - The report recommends investment opportunities in specific food and beverage companies, particularly in the white liquor and health food segments [41]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with a high opening followed by a consolidation phase, facing resistance around 3392 points, and ultimately closing with minor declines in major indices [3][4][8] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3371.92 points, down 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10843.23 points, down 0.17% [8][9] - The total trading volume for both markets was 17,258 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [4][16] Sector Performance - Communication equipment, power grid equipment, securities, and consumer electronics sectors performed well, while energy metals, biopharmaceuticals, aerospace, and small metals sectors showed weaker performance [4][8] - Over 50% of stocks in the two markets saw gains, with notable increases in power equipment, jewelry, gaming, and cultural media sectors [8][11] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 14.28 times and 39.27 times, respectively, which are at the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [4][16] Future Market Outlook - The report anticipates a market characterized by leadership from technology sectors, defensive dividend stocks, consumer recovery, and domestic demand-driven growth as macroeconomic policies continue to be implemented [4][16] - Investors are advised to focus on structural opportunities while balancing defensive and growth strategies, particularly in sectors like communication equipment, power grid equipment, software development, and consumer electronics [4][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the communication industry [7][8]. Core Insights - The communication industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index in February 2025, with a growth of 2.67% compared to the CSI 300's 1.91% [7][13]. - The rapid expansion of AI models is accelerating the adoption of cloud computing, with global cloud infrastructure service spending expected to reach $321.3 billion in 2024, a 20% year-on-year increase [7][19]. - The enterprise-level ICT market in China is projected to grow by 11.7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching approximately $269.36 billion, driven by cloud computing, AI, and computing power deployment [7][23]. - The introduction of DeepSeek's AI model is expected to significantly impact the terminal market over the next 2-5 years, enhancing the intelligence of devices through natural language processing and multimodal reasoning capabilities [7][8]. - The report highlights the strong growth potential in the telecom sector, particularly with the integration of AI capabilities into cloud services by major telecom operators [8]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In February 2025, the communication industry index rose by 2.67%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 index [13][14]. - The telecom sector saw a diverse performance among sub-sectors, with network planning and engineering services leading with increases of 23.77% and 17.43% respectively [14][18]. Industry Tracking - Global cloud infrastructure service spending is projected to grow by 20% year-on-year, reaching $321.3 billion in 2024, with AI models driving this growth [19][20]. - The ICT market in China is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% from 2024 to 2028, with significant contributions from cloud computing and AI [23][24]. - The telecom business revenue in China reached 1.74 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 3.2% increase year-on-year [30][34]. Telecom Industry Tracking - As of December 2024, the number of mobile phone users in China reached 1.79 billion, with 5G users accounting for 56.7% of the total [34][37]. - The new business revenue in the telecom sector grew by 10.6% year-on-year, contributing to a 2.5 percentage point increase in overall telecom revenue [42][44]. Mobile Phone Industry Tracking - In December 2024, domestic smartphone shipments reached 34.528 million units, a 22.1% increase year-on-year, with 5G smartphones making up 88.1% of total shipments [48][50]. - The report anticipates continued growth in the smartphone market in 2025, driven by government consumption subsidy policies [51][53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" investment rating for the lithium battery industry [1][7]. Core Insights - The lithium battery sector has shown strong performance, with the lithium battery index rising by 13.47% in February 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 2.50% [7][10]. - In February 2025, China's new energy vehicle sales reached 892,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 87.0%, with a market share of 41.90% [7][17]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring upstream raw material price trends, monthly sales, and the implementation of industry regulations [7][10]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The lithium battery index and new energy vehicle index both outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in February 2025 [10]. - A total of 94 stocks in the lithium battery sector rose, with an average increase of 12.94% [10]. New Energy Vehicle Sales and Industry Prices - In 2025, new energy vehicle sales in China are projected to continue growing, with significant increases in both domestic and export markets [17][19]. - The report notes that the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 75,000 CNY/ton as of March 11, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 3.23% from early February [7][37]. Industry and Company News - The report discusses various industry developments, including government policies aimed at promoting new energy vehicles and advancements in battery technology [53][54]. - It highlights the strategic partnerships and technological innovations being pursued by key players in the lithium battery sector, such as BYD and CATL [54].