分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 光伏煤炭行业领涨 A 股小幅上行 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股震荡上行》 2026-02-03 《市场分析：电网酿酒行业领涨 A 股宽幅震 荡》 2026-02-02 《市场分析：农业通信行业领涨 A 股宽幅震 荡》 2026-01-30 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2026 年 02 月 04 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周三（02 月 04 日）A 股市场低开高走、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指低 开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在 4087 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震 荡，尾盘再度上行，盘中煤炭、光伏设备、航空机场以及玻璃玻纤 等行业表现较好；贵金属、游戏、文化传媒以及互联网服务等行业 表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡上行的运行特征。创业板市 场周三震荡整理，创业板成分指数全天表现弱于主板市场。 ◼ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the basic chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - In January 2026, the CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index rose by 10.13%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.37 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 8.48 percentage points, ranking 6th among 30 CITIC first-level industries [3][7]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in chemical product prices, with notable increases in liquid chlorine, lithium hydroxide, acetonitrile, lithium carbonate, and butadiene [3][8]. - The investment strategy for February 2026 suggests focusing on industries benefiting from anti-involution policies, such as chlor-alkali, pesticides, and polyester filament, as well as coal chemical sectors benefiting from rising oil prices [3][8]. Market Review - The basic chemical sector saw 30 out of 33 sub-industries increase in January 2026, with the dyeing chemicals, chlor-alkali, and spandex industries leading with increases of 30.94%, 26.69%, and 20.16% respectively [3][8]. - Among 529 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 424 stocks rose while 104 fell, with the top gainers including SDIC, Hongbaoli, and Runtu, which saw increases of 90.53%, 68.92%, and 68.54% respectively [3][8]. Product Price Tracking - In January 2026, international oil prices saw significant increases, with WTI crude oil rising by 13.57% to $65.21 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 16.17% to $70.69 per barrel [3][8]. - Among 319 tracked products, 207 saw price increases, with the largest gains in liquid chlorine (71.43%), lithium hydroxide (44.10%), and acetonitrile (32.86%) [3][8]. Industry and Company News - In 2025, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 376.62 billion yuan, although this represented a 7.3% decline from the previous year [15][17]. - The report notes that the chemical industry is expected to benefit from ongoing anti-involution policies, which may strengthen supply-side constraints and favor certain sub-industries [3][8].

Key Insights - The report highlights the acquisition of xAI by SpaceX, with a projected valuation of $1.25 trillion post-merger, indicating significant growth potential in the AI and aerospace sectors [5][8] - The report notes a rise in domestic fuel prices, with gasoline and diesel prices increasing by 0.16 yuan and 0.17 yuan per liter respectively, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures in the energy sector [5][8] - The macroeconomic analysis indicates that China's GDP for 2025 reached 14,018.79 billion yuan, growing by 5.0%, with a notable contribution from the tertiary sector [13] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the new materials sector, which outperformed the broader market indices, suggesting a growing demand for innovative materials in various industries [20][22] - The communication industry is experiencing supply constraints in key materials, particularly optical chips, which may impact growth in the optical communication market [29][31] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,067.74, up by 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.19% to 14,127.11, indicating a positive trend in the domestic equity market [4] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 16.49 and 51.57 respectively, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][11] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the strong rebound in the photovoltaic industry, with a 15.65% increase in the photovoltaic index, driven by developments in space solar power technology [23][24] - The semiconductor market continues to grow, with global sales reaching $75.28 billion in November 2025, a 29.8% year-on-year increase, highlighting the sector's resilience [21] - The report indicates a significant increase in the agricultural communication sector, which has led the A-share market in recent weeks, reflecting robust demand in this niche [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as AI, high-end manufacturing, and consumer goods, which are expected to yield substantial investment opportunities in the near future [8][9] - It recommends monitoring the performance of leading companies in the new materials and communication sectors, as they are poised for growth amid ongoing technological advancements [20][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [19]. Core Insights - The company, Zhongji Xuchuang, is experiencing rapid growth in orders for 1.6T optical modules, with a continuous increase in the proportion of silicon photonics [7][8]. - The company is a leading global supplier of optical modules, providing high-speed optical modules for cloud data centers and telecom equipment, with a significant market share growth [7]. - The demand for optical modules is driven by the increasing requirements for AI applications and data center interconnectivity, with the global optical module market expected to exceed $23 billion in 2025, growing by 50% year-on-year [8]. - The company has locked in supply capacity for core materials with suppliers, ensuring sustained growth in shipment volumes and competitive advantages in both scale-out and scale-up markets [8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.8 to 11.8 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 89.5% to 128.17% [5]. - The projected net profit for 2026 is 26.03 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 140.23% from 2025 to 2027 [10]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve due to the increased proportion of high-margin products and advancements in technology [7][8]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company ranks first among global optical module manufacturers, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from high-end optical communication products [7]. - The proportion of silicon photonics in the company's product offerings is expected to continue rising, with predictions that silicon photonics will capture 59% of the optical module market by 2030 [8]. - The company is actively developing scale-up optical interconnect products, anticipating substantial demand growth starting in 2027 [8].

通信设备 分析师：李璐毅 登记编码：S0730524120001 lily2@ccnew.com 021-50586278 1.6T 光模块订单增长迅速，硅光占比持续 提升 ——中际旭创(300308)公司点评报告 证券研究报告-公司点评报告 买入(维持) 市场数据(2026-02-02) | 收盘价(元) | 591.00 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 658.80/67.20 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 4,605.98 | | 市净率(倍) | 24.88 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 6,533.51 | | 基础数据(2025-09-30) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 23.75 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | 4.91 | | 毛利率(%) | 40.74 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 27.03 | | 资产负债率(%) | 29.47 | | 总股本/流通股(万股) | 111,111.83/110,550.05 | | B 股/H 股(万股) | 0.00/0.00 | 个股相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 -2 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of various sectors in the A-share market, indicating a mixed trend with certain industries like electric grid and liquor leading the gains while others like precious metals and fertilizers lag behind [3][7][13] - The macroeconomic analysis suggests that while the GDP growth target for 2025 was achieved, structural issues such as weak demand persist, necessitating policy support to sustain growth momentum [10][11] - The telecommunications sector is experiencing significant changes due to tax adjustments, which may impact revenue and profit margins for major players like China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom [3][6] Market Performance - The A-share market has shown volatility with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index experiencing declines of 2.48% and 2.69% respectively [1] - The telecommunications industry index outperformed the broader market, reflecting a 12.82% increase in December, driven by strong demand for communication equipment [27] - The new materials sector has also shown robust performance, with a 10.54% increase in January, significantly outperforming the broader indices [18] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the upcoming launch of DeepSeek's new AI model, DeepSeek V4, which is expected to surpass existing models in performance and could significantly impact the AI landscape [15][17] - The photovoltaic industry is highlighted for its strong growth, with over 300GW of new installations in 2025, despite facing challenges such as rising costs and regulatory changes [21][22] - The media sector is experiencing a surge in activity, particularly in gaming and film, with the upcoming Spring Festival expected to drive significant box office revenues [24][26] Economic Indicators - The report notes that China's GDP for 2025 reached 1401879 billion, marking a 5.0% increase from the previous year, with consumption playing a more significant role in growth [10] - The fixed asset investment showed a decline of 3.8%, indicating potential weaknesses in the investment landscape [10] - The telecommunications retail sector saw a year-on-year increase of 20.9% in 2025, reflecting strong consumer demand for communication devices [28] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to adopt a balanced strategy, focusing on sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing while also considering cyclical and resource sectors for potential opportunities [3][14] - The report suggests that the media sector, particularly gaming and film, presents high growth potential due to favorable policy environments and technological advancements in AI [26] - In the telecommunications sector, companies involved in optical fiber and AI mobile technologies are recommended for investment due to their growth prospects [31]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [16]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a low opening and wide fluctuations, with notable performance in the electric grid equipment, liquor, banking, and photovoltaic equipment sectors, while precious metals, fertilizers, mining, and non-ferrous metals lagged behind [2][3]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 16.90 times and 52.86 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][15]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges was 26,069 billion, which is above the median of the past three years, indicating robust market activity [3][15]. - The manufacturing PMI for January showed a slight decline, but the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs remain in the expansion zone, reflecting ongoing structural optimization in the industry [3][15]. - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy, focusing on AI and high-end manufacturing while also considering opportunities in certain consumer sectors [3][15]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On February 2, the A-share market opened low and experienced wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 4,103 points before retreating [7]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,015.75 points, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,824.35 points, down 2.69% [8]. - Over 80% of stocks declined, with only the electric grid equipment and liquor sectors showing slight increases [7]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates that the Shanghai Composite Index will likely maintain a slight fluctuation, advising investors to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments [3][15]. - Short-term investment opportunities are highlighted in the electric grid equipment, liquor, banking, and photovoltaic equipment sectors [3][15].

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -8% -1% 6% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 2026.01 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | 4,117.95 | -0.96 | | 深证成指 | 14,205.89 | -0.66 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 4,706.34 | -1.00 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 4,615.93 | -1.04 | | 中证 500 | 8,370.52 | -1.73 | | 中证 1000 | 6,116.76 | 0.33 | | 国证 20 ...

Market Overview - On January 30, the A-share market experienced a rebound after a dip, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 4064 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95 points, down 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89 points, down 0.66%[7] - Total trading volume for both markets was 28,627 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3] Sector Performance - Strong performers included communication equipment, agriculture, battery, and coal sectors, while precious metals, energy metals, mining, and non-ferrous metals lagged[3] - Over 50% of stocks in the two markets declined, with significant inflows into communication equipment, battery, agriculture, gaming, and coal sectors[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices were 17.07 times and 52.68 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years[3] - The current market conditions are deemed suitable for medium to long-term investments[3] Future Outlook - Regulatory measures are being implemented to temper speculative market behavior and guide the market towards a healthier "slow bull" trend[3] - The upcoming earnings reports from listed companies are expected to shift market focus towards performance growth and profit improvement[3] - Investors are advised to adopt a balanced allocation strategy, focusing on both technology growth sectors and cyclical, resource, and consumer sectors for future investment opportunities[3]

分析师：乔琪 登记编码：S0730520090001 qiaoqi@ccnew.com 021-50586985 全年利润大幅增长，Q4 或将创利润新高 证券研究报告-公司点评报告 买入(维持) 市场数据(2026-01-29) | 收盘价(元) | 475.50 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 668.00/198.21 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 4,753.87 | | 市净率(倍) | 6.37 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 342.56 | | 基础数据(2025-09-30) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 74.69 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | 25.80 | | 毛利率(%) | 93.31 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 22.56 | | 资产负债率(%) | 21.96 | | 总股本/流通股(万股) | 7,204.11/7,204.11 | | B 股/H 股(万股) | 0.00/0.00 | 个股相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 -5% 27% 60% 92% 125% 157% 189% 222% 20 ...