玻璃玻纤 24Q4 利润扭亏为盈，复价落地业绩望筑底回升 ——山东玻纤 2024 年年报&2025 年一季报业绩预增点评 山东玻纤（605006.SH） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 16 日 | 评级： 增持（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：孙颖 | 营业收入（百万元） | | 2,202 | | 2,006 | 2,393 | 2,672 | 2,828 | | | 增长率 yoy% | | -21% | | -9% | 19% | 12% | 6% | | 执业证书编号：S0740519070002 | 归母净利润（百万元） | | 105 | | -99 | 44 | 123 | 169 | | Email：sunying@zts.com.cn | 增长率 yoy% | | -80% | | -194% | 144% | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the AI packaging sector, with significant revenue growth projected in the coming years [4][13] - The company has achieved record-high revenue in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [6][10] - The company is heavily investing in advanced packaging technologies, which is expected to drive future growth despite current profit declines due to high R&D expenses [8][12] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 238.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, and a net profit of 6.8 billion yuan, up 300% [6][10] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 68 billion yuan, marking a record high for a single quarter, but net profit decreased by 46% year-on-year [6][10] - The company's gross margin improved to 14.8%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 2.8%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 22,269 million yuan, 2024A: 23,882 million yuan, 2025E: 26,857 million yuan, 2026E: 29,356 million yuan, and 2027E: 32,542 million yuan [4] - Net profit forecasts are: 2023A: 169 million yuan, 2024A: 678 million yuan, 2025E: 1,048 million yuan, 2026E: 1,436 million yuan, and 2027E: 1,605 million yuan [4] R&D and Technological Advancements - The company is actively developing advanced packaging technologies, with R&D expenses reaching 8.5% of revenue, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [8][12] - The company has established deep partnerships with leading firms like AMD, enhancing its revenue potential through advanced packaging solutions [9][10] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is the largest packaging supplier for AMD, handling over 80% of its orders, which provides a strong revenue base [10] - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 26.5 billion yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 10.96% compared to 2024, which is above the industry growth rate [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [15]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit significantly from the cyclical upturn in the sewing industry, with a projected revenue growth of 15% in 2024 and a substantial increase in net profit by 51% [4][9]. - The company has successfully implemented a "focus on explosive products" strategy, enhancing its market share and brand competitiveness through technological advancements and strategic partnerships [6][10]. - The global sewing equipment market is experiencing a recovery, with notable growth in both domestic and international demand, particularly in emerging markets [8][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 60.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.11%, and a net profit of 8.12 billion yuan, up 50.86% [4]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 13.87 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.21% year-on-year growth, with net profit reaching 1.93 billion yuan, a 53.03% increase [4]. Growth Drivers - The company’s industrial sewing machine sales reached 2.1211 million units in 2024, marking an 8.10% increase, with revenue from this segment at 5.264 billion yuan, up 14.69% [10]. - The company has signed contracts with 10 world-class benchmark clients, further promoting its high-end market expansion [6]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 32.76%, an increase of 4.34 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 13.57%, up 3.37 percentage points [6]. - The company’s R&D expenses were 488 million yuan in 2024, a 23.67% increase, reflecting its commitment to innovation and product development [7]. Market Outlook - The global sewing machinery export value reached 3.424 billion USD in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.39%, indicating a recovery to near 2022 levels [8]. - The domestic market for industrial sewing equipment is estimated to have grown by 27% in 2024, with a total sales volume of approximately 2.35 million units [8].

汽车零部件 Email：maoyx@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523020004 Email：hejy02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740522120003 Email：liuxc03@zts.com.cn 分析师：毛䶮玄 执业证书编号：S0740523020003 | 总股本(百万股) | 183.01 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 59.47 | | 市价(元) | 27.72 | | 市值(百万元) | 5,073.03 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 1,648.40 | 1、《业绩创单季新高，增长潜力持 续释放》2024-10-28 2、《悬架弹簧业务增长亮眼，产能 释放下业绩持续兑现》2024-08-19 3、《弹簧稳健增长叠加稳定杆上量， 产 能 扩 张 下 业 绩 持 续 释 放 》 2024-05-04 华纬科技（001380.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 15 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

油电转型低点已过，看好出口增量及新能源扭亏贡献利润弹性 乘用车 长安汽车（000625.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 15 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：何俊艺 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 151,298 | 159,733 | 191,680 | 243,705 | 292,446 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | 25% | 6% | 20% | 27% | 20% | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020004 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 11,327 | 7,321 | 9,135 | 10,684 | 12,875 | | Email：hejy02@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | 45% | -35% | 25% | 17% | 21% | | | | 每股收益（元） | ...

华泰苏州恒泰租赁住房 REIT 启动询价 评级：无评级 分析师：陈希瑞 执业证书编号：S0740524070002 Email：chenxr@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 64 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 1871.44 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 858.19 | 相关报告 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 04 月 14 日 报告摘要 本周行情回顾： 本周 REITs 指数下跌 1.18%，沪深 300 累计下跌 2.87%，中证 500 指数下跌 4.52%， 中证全债指数上涨 0.33%，中债 1 年期国债指数上涨 0.06%，中债 10 年期国债指数 上涨 0.45%，中证转债指数下跌 1.70%。上市以来 REITs 与十年期国债、一年期国债、 中证转债相关性分别为-0.08、-0.21、0.63，与沪深 300、中证 500 相关性分别为 0.27、 0.33。 行业基本情况： 行业-市场走势对比 重点事件：1）富国首创水务 REIT 等 5 只 REITs 发布分红公告。2）华夏特变电工新能 源 REIT ...

证券研究报告 信用业务周报 美关税政策对全球资产有何影响？ 2025年4月14日 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 • 一、如何看待美关税政策对全球资产影响？ 3 • 4月2日美国总统特朗普提出"对等关税"政策，并表态将大幅提升对华商品征税水平。本轮事件对于全 球金融市场影响较大，上周美债、黄金等资产也遭受了一定程度的短期大幅抛售。 • 周初黄金下跌或与流动性造成的抛压相关。上周五美股跌幅较大，部分机构可能被要求补足保证金而 抛售黄金用于补足流动性。但是，特朗普政策冲击下，宏观因素支持黄金上涨：第一，强关税带来的 强衰退预期使得实际利率下行，黄金保值需求上升。第二，宏观不确定性上升，支持黄金避险属性。 第三，"美国优先"主义或使得美元信用下滑，而黄金作为超越主权的全球资产，将受益于美元信用收 缩。故流动性危机告一段落后，金价持续补涨并刷新新高。美债方面，近期经济数据公布，且伴随特 朗普政策持续发酵，美债收益率上行。一方面，强关税预期带动美国通胀预期上行，驱动 ...

| 预计关税影响有限，期待阿迪放量 | | --- | ——华利集团 24 快报点评 纺织制造 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 Email：zouwj@zts.com.cn 基本状况 | 总股本(百万股) | 1,167.00 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 1,166.99 | | 市价(元) | 56.14 | | 市值(百万元) | 65,515.38 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 65,514.95 | 1、《收入符合预期，阿迪放量可期》 2025-03-14 放量》2024-10-30 2024-08-23 华利集团（300979.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 14 日 | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E ...

华泰苏州恒泰租赁住房 REIT 启动询价 评级：无评级 分析师：陈希瑞 执业证书编号：S0740524070002 Email：chenxr@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 64 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 1871.44 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 858.19 | 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 相关报告 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 04 月 14 日 报告摘要 本周行情回顾： 本周 REITs 指数下跌 1.18%，沪深 300 累计下跌 2.87%，中证 500 指数下跌 4.52%， 中证全债指数上涨 0.33%，中债 1 年期国债指数上涨 0.06%，中债 10 年期国债指数 上涨 0.45%，中证转债指数下跌 1.70%。上市以来 REITs 与十年期国债、一年期国债、 中证转债相关性分别为-0.08、-0.21、0.63，与沪深 300、中证 500 相关性分别为 0.27、 0.33。 行业基本情况： 行业-市场走势对比 重点事件：1）富国首创水务 REIT 等 5 只 REITs 发布分红公告。2 ...