| 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 李航 S0350521120006 | | | | lih11@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 邱迪 S0350522010002 | | | | qiud@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 王刚 S0350524020001 | | | | wangg06@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 李昂 S0350525030002 | | | | lia@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 吴亦辰 S0350125030017 | | | | wuyc@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 储能需求有望持续超我们预期，Rubin 全液冷 方案有望逐步起量 ——新能源行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2026/02/27 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 电力设备 | 1.9% | 12.4% | 48.1% | | 沪深 300 | 0. ...

研究所： 2026 年 02 月 28 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | | chenm | | --- | --- | | E券分析师: E券分析师: | 陈梦竹 张娟娟 | 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 张娟娟 S0350523110004 zhangjj02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 延续高质量增长，入境游成为强劲增长引擎 ——携程集团-S（9961.HK）2025Q4 及全年财 报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2026/02/27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 携程集团-S | -17.6% | -23.2% | -8.9% | | 恒生指数 | -1.8% | 2.6% | 12.3% | | 市场数据 | | | 2026/02/27 | | 当前价格（港元） | | | 411.40 | | 52 周价格区间（港元） | | | 397.20-613.00 | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | ...

2026 年 02 月 28 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 《百度集团-SW（9888.HK）2025Q4 财报前瞻： 昆仑芯等智能云基础设施业务促进公司云业务稳 健发展（买入）*数字媒体*陈梦竹，陈重伊》—— 2026-02-01 《百度集团-SW（9888.HK）2025Q3 财报点评： AI 业务商业化加速落地，同比实现高速增长（买入） *数字媒体*陈梦竹，陈重伊》——2025-11-21 《百度集团(9888.HK)公司报告：全栈 AI 构筑竞争 壁垒，AI 云国内市占率领先（买入）*数字媒体*陈 事件： 百度集团于 2026 年 2 月 26 日发布 2025 第四季度及全年业绩公告：2025 年，公司实现收入约 1291 亿元，同比下滑 3%；non-GAAP 经营利润约 150 亿元，同比下滑 43%；non-GAAP 净利润 189 亿元，同比下滑 30%。 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 陈重伊 S0350525010002 chency@ghzq.com.cn ——百度集团-SW（9888.HK）2025 ...

Group 1: Online Subscription Revenue Growth and AI Development - NetEase Cloud Music - Adjusted operating profit increased by over 30% year-on-year, indicating continuous improvement in profitability [3][4] - In 2025, revenue reached 7.759 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a more cautious operational strategy in social entertainment services [3] - The number of paid users increased, driving online music subscription revenue growth, with 2025 online music business revenue at 5.994 billion yuan, up 12.0% year-on-year [5][6] Group 2: Price Increase in Overseas MDI and Polyurethane Market Outlook - Wanhua Chemical - Major overseas manufacturers have raised MDI prices, indicating a potential price increase trend in the market [9][10] - As of February 24, 2026, domestic MDI prices were 13,900 yuan/ton, with TDI prices at 14,900 yuan/ton, showing stability compared to pre-Spring Festival levels [10] - The report anticipates a recovery in polyurethane demand post-Spring Festival, supported by low inventory levels [12] Group 3: Motorcycle Industry Analysis - Suzuki - From FY2014 to FY2024, Suzuki's motorcycle production increased from 1.799 million units to 2.042 million units, with a CAGR of approximately 1.3% [14] - The company's motorcycle revenue grew from 250.5 billion yen to 398.1 billion yen during the same period, with a CAGR of approximately 4.7% [15] - Suzuki's global motorcycle market share for FY2023 is estimated at around 4% [18] Group 4: Movie Industry Performance and Trends - The 2026 Spring Festival box office reached 5.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.9% due to high base effects [20][21] - The number of attendees during the Spring Festival was 119 million, down 36.3% year-on-year, with an average ticket price of 47.8 yuan, a decrease of 6.1% [21] - The report highlights strong performance in lower-tier markets, with a significant share of box office revenue coming from these areas [21] Group 5: Motorcycle Industry Analysis - Honda - Honda's motorcycle sales revenue increased from 1.85 trillion yen to 3.22 trillion yen from FY2015 to FY2024, with a CAGR of approximately 6.37% [25] - The company's motorcycle sales volume grew from 17.59 million units to 18.82 million units during the same period, with a CAGR of approximately 0.75% [26] - Honda's global motorcycle market share is approximately 40% [29] Group 6: Express Logistics Industry Trends - In the first eight weeks of 2026, the total express delivery volume reached 32.734 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [36][37] - YTO Express led the growth in business volume, with a year-on-year increase of 29.75% in January [38] - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the express logistics sector, anticipating steady growth in business volume [40] Group 7: Engineering Machinery - Shantui - Shantui is positioned as a leading enterprise in bulldozers, focusing on smart, high-end, and globalized products [45][46] - The company expects revenue growth driven by increased infrastructure investment in Southeast Asia and mining capital expenditure in Africa [46][47] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 15.4 billion, 17.4 billion, and 20.2 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.25 billion, 1.61 billion, and 1.93 billion yuan [49]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The report addresses key aspects of the company's development history, industry analysis of its core products (bulldozers and excavators), and the company's competitive advantages in these areas [3]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the bulldozer market, advancing towards smart, high-end, and global operations [3]. - The report highlights the stable industry structure and the potential benefits from increased capital expenditure in mining and accelerated infrastructure projects [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has evolved from its inception, fulfilling the mission of domesticating high-power bulldozers in China, thus eliminating reliance on imports for bulldozers over 180 horsepower [12][13]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with significant stakes held by Shandong Heavy Industry Group and Weichai Power [20][24]. - The company has seen a steady increase in overseas revenue, with the proportion rising from 38.7% in 2022 to 55.7% in the first half of 2025 [34]. Bulldozer Market Analysis - The global bulldozer market is expected to grow from 33.6 billion yuan in 2020 to 53.9 billion yuan by 2024, driven by infrastructure development and mining activities [45]. - The report indicates that the market concentration is high, with the top five manufacturers expected to hold a 66% market share by 2024 [45]. - The domestic market is projected to recover in 2024, with the company maintaining a leading market share of 64.7% [48]. Competitive Advantages - The company is recognized as the leader in the domestic bulldozer market, having maintained a market share above 60% since 2010 [49]. - The report suggests that the company's bulldozers are likely to benefit from a structural supply-demand imbalance, leading to potential price increases [3][6]. - The company has a unique position in the excavator market, with a focus on internal and external demand recovery, supported by various factors such as policy stimulation and large-scale engineering projects [4][6]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 14.22 billion yuan in 2024 to 20.16 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19% from 2020 to 2024 [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.10 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.93 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5]. - The report anticipates a stable gross margin and improved profitability due to effective cost control measures [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the motorcycle sector [1] Core Insights - Suzuki's motorcycle production is projected to grow from 1.799 million units in FY2014 to 2.042 million units in FY2024, with a CAGR of approximately 1.3% [10][15] - The company's motorcycle sales are expected to increase from 1.764 million units in FY2014 to 2.064 million units in FY2024, reflecting a CAGR of about 1.6% [10][15] - Revenue from motorcycle sales is anticipated to rise from 250.5 billion yen in FY2014 to 398.1 billion yen in FY2024, with a CAGR of approximately 4.7% [10][15] - The average price of Suzuki motorcycles is expected to increase from 142,000 yen in FY2014 to 193,000 yen in FY2024, with a CAGR of about 3.1% [10][15] - In FY2023, Suzuki's global motorcycle market share is estimated to be around 4%, based on Yamaha's reported global motorcycle demand of 49.94 million units [24] Summary by Sections Production, Sales, and Revenue - Suzuki's motorcycle production is expected to grow from 1.799 million units in FY2014 to 2.042 million units in FY2024, with domestic production declining from 154,000 units to 91,000 units, while overseas production increases from 1.645 million units to 1.951 million units [10][15] - Total motorcycle sales are projected to rise from 1.764 million units in FY2014 to 2.064 million units in FY2024, with domestic sales decreasing from 67,000 units to 35,000 units, and overseas sales increasing from 1.697 million units to 2.029 million units [10][15] - Revenue from motorcycle sales is expected to increase from 250.5 billion yen in FY2014 to 398.1 billion yen in FY2024, with domestic revenue declining from 21.3 billion yen to 18.4 billion yen, while overseas revenue rises from 212.6 billion yen to 379.7 billion yen [22][24] Regional Breakdown - In FY2024, Suzuki's motorcycle sales in India are projected to reach 1.048 million units, a significant increase from 313,000 units in FY2015 [21] - The average selling price of motorcycles in different regions for FY2024 is expected to be 52.6 thousand yen in Japan, 109.0 thousand yen in Europe, 132.7 thousand yen in North America, and 13.8 thousand yen in India [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the motorcycle sector [1] Core Insights - The report analyzes Honda's motorcycle global sales, focusing on sales revenue, volume, and market share breakdown [4] - Honda's motorcycle sales revenue increased from 1.85 trillion yen in FY2015 to 3.22 trillion yen in FY2024, with a CAGR of approximately 6.37% [5][10] - Honda's motorcycle sales volume grew from 17.59 million units in FY2015 to 18.82 million units in FY2024, with a CAGR of about 0.75% [5][10] - The average price of Honda motorcycles rose from 105,000 yen in FY2015 to 171,000 yen in FY2024, reflecting a CAGR of 5.58% [5][10] - In FY2024, Honda's sales volume by region was as follows: Japan (241,000 units), North America (498,000 units), Europe (440,000 units), Asia (1,601,600 units), and other regions (162,400 units) [11][12] - Honda holds a global market share of approximately 40%, with significant market presence in Asia and Europe [16] Summary by Sections Sales Revenue and Volume - Honda's motorcycle sales revenue and volume have shown steady growth over the years, indicating a robust market position [5][10] Regional Sales Breakdown - The report highlights Honda's strategic production and sales approach, emphasizing localized manufacturing and a strong dealer network across 23 countries [16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that domestic brands have significant potential for international expansion, maintaining a "Recommended" rating for the motorcycle sector, with key recommendations including Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the motorcycle sector, specifically for Kawasaki [1]. Core Insights - Kawasaki's motorcycle revenue is expected to grow steadily, with a CAGR of approximately 4.6% from FY2014 to FY2024, increasing from 220.6 billion JPY to 344.5 billion JPY [10][16]. - The sales volume for Kawasaki motorcycles is projected to stabilize at 480,000 units for FY2024, down from 523,000 units in FY2014 [22][28]. - The average price of Kawasaki motorcycles is anticipated to rise, with a CAGR of about 5.5% from FY2014 to FY2024, increasing from 421,800 JPY to 717,700 JPY [27]. Summary by Sections Kawasaki Motorcycle Revenue - Revenue growth is primarily driven by developed markets, with a CAGR of 8.6% in developed countries, while revenue in emerging markets is expected to decline at a CAGR of -1.3% [10][16]. Kawasaki Motorcycle Sales Volume - Sales in developed countries are projected to increase from 127,000 units in FY2014 to 234,000 units in FY2024, while sales in emerging markets are expected to decrease from 396,000 units to 246,000 units during the same period [22][31]. Kawasaki Motorcycle Average Price - The average price in developed countries is expected to grow from 848,800 JPY to 1,048,300 JPY, while in emerging markets, it is projected to rise from 284,800 JPY to 403,300 JPY [27]. Market Share - Kawasaki's global market share for FY2023 is estimated to be approximately 1%, with sales distribution across developed and emerging markets [28][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that domestic brands have significant potential for growth, with a focus on Kawasaki's stable sales and the increasing competitiveness of domestic brands. Key recommendations include Chuanfeng Power and Longxin General, with a suggestion to pay attention to Qianjiang Motorcycle [33].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has shown steady growth in online subscription revenue and is actively developing AI features to enhance user experience [2][6] - The adjusted operating profit has increased by over 30% year-on-year, indicating a continuous improvement in profitability [5] - The company is focusing on expanding its music copyright and has introduced several AI functionalities to enrich the music experience [11] Financial Performance Summary - In 2025, the company reported revenue of 77.59 billion, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, primarily due to a more cautious approach to social entertainment services [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.48 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 76.0% year-on-year [8] - The adjusted net profit reached 28.60 billion, up 68.2% year-on-year, with a notable reduction in tax expenses [8] - The gross margin for 2025 was 35.7%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted operating profit margin was 22.34%, up 5.9 percentage points [8] - The company ended 2025 with cash reserves of 121.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.2% [8] Revenue and User Growth - The online music business revenue for 2025 was 59.94 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.0%, driven by an increase in paid users and enhanced user experience [8] - The number of paid users has increased, contributing to the growth in subscription revenue, which reached 50.53 billion, up 13.3% year-on-year [8] - The company’s monthly active users (MAU) have shown stable growth, maintaining a daily active users (DAU) to MAU ratio of over 30% [8] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2026 to 2028 are 84.79 billion, 91.16 billion, and 96.99 billion respectively, with expected growth rates of 9.27%, 7.52%, and 6.39% [10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decline to 20.59 billion in 2026, followed by a gradual recovery in subsequent years [10] - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 21.79 billion in 2026, with a corresponding adjusted P/E ratio of 14 [10]

Group 1: Transportation Industry Insights - The Spring Festival travel peak has shown a significant increase in passenger volume and ticket prices, indicating an industry turning point. The total inter-regional passenger flow reached 5.08 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [3][4] - During the first 20 days of the Spring Festival, the civil aviation passenger volume increased by 6.0% year-on-year, with an average ticket price of 943 yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year [3][4] - The civil aviation industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 5% in passenger volume for 2026, supported by a recovery in business travel and a high seat occupancy rate [5] Group 2: Chemical Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is entering a favorable cycle with rising prices due to the upcoming peak season and a global trend of reducing overcapacity. The focus is on the recovery of demand and the potential for increased dividend yields from leading companies [6][8] - Key sectors to watch include coal chemical, oil refining, and agricultural chemicals, with specific companies highlighted for their strong performance potential [8][9] - The industry is expected to benefit from a reduction in supply and increased demand, particularly in sectors like PTA and tire manufacturing, as well as in the context of AI-driven demand [8][9] Group 3: Coal Market Dynamics - The price of thermal coal has risen to 718 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 23 yuan, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from power plants [45][46] - The competitiveness of imported coal has diminished, leading to a favorable outlook for domestic coal prices as supply tightens and demand remains stable [45][46] - The overall coal mining industry is expected to see a long-term upward trend in prices due to rising operational costs and regulatory pressures, with a focus on maintaining high-quality assets and cash flow [47]