行业周报 · 纺织服饰 体育服饰龙头稳增长, 1-2 月内需企稳 2025年3月23日 核心观点 纺织服饰行业 推荐 维持 分析师 郝帅 ☎: 010-8092-7622 2: haoshuai@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524040001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-3-23 资料来源:中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 安踏体育、特步国际、361 度披露 2024 全年业绩,国产体育品牌逆势增 ● 长 。 安 踏 体 育 / 特 步 国 际 /361 度 2024 年 分 别 录 得 营 业 收 入 708.26/135.77/100.74 亿元,同比增长 13.6%/6.5%/19.6%, 归属母公司净利 润 155.96/12.38/11.49亿元,同比增长 52.4%/20.2%/19.5%。扣除非经营性 影响,三家公司净利润增速分别为+2%/+4.1%/19.5%。安踏体育 2024 年经营 利润率有所下降,主要系公司营销费用增长较多,原材料成本提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.772 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.039 billion yuan, up 1.48% year-on-year [4]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the booming electric vehicle (EV) business, which accounts for over 50% of total revenue, alongside stable performance in the photovoltaic sector [4]. - The company's film capacitor product sales increased by 14.83% to 2.656 billion units, with an average price rise of 6.75% to 1.70 yuan [4]. - The gross margin decreased by 5.18 percentage points to 33.37% due to customer discounts and rising raw material costs [4]. - The company effectively managed expenses, resulting in a significant reduction in the expense ratio, which helped mitigate some of the gross margin decline [4]. - The company is expanding its overseas production capacity, with plans to invest up to 100 million yuan in establishing a subsidiary in Hungary, enhancing its service capabilities for international clients [4]. - The overseas revenue reached 1.006 billion yuan, accounting for 21.07% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 33.67% [4]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027, estimating revenues of 5.808 billion yuan, 6.862 billion yuan, and 7.825 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.353 billion yuan, 1.665 billion yuan, and 1.997 billion yuan respectively [4][5]. Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 33.37%, with projections for 2025-2027 indicating a gradual increase to 35.98% [5][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 4.62 yuan, expected to rise to 6.01 yuan in 2025 and 8.87 yuan by 2027 [5][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 7.818 billion yuan in 2024 to 11.811 billion yuan in 2027 [7]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 21.78% in 2024 to 25.52% in 2027 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong performance in 2024, achieving a revenue of 13.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.41 billion yuan, up 27.78% year-on-year [4][9]. - The growth is driven by the increase in sales from major domestic brand clients, with notable sales increases for brands such as Chery (+43.7%), Seres (+180.0%), Li Auto (+33.1%), Xpeng (+34.2%), and Zeekr (+87.2%) in 2024 [4]. - The company has implemented an employee stock ownership plan to align the interests of core employees with the company, which is expected to enhance growth potential [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.03 billion yuan, a 33.73% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 431 million yuan, up 34.49% year-on-year [4]. - The company has undertaken 69 new model development projects in 2024, an increase of 19% from the previous year, and has achieved mass production for 40 models [4]. - The average price of vehicle lights increased by 25.31% to 203.13 yuan, indicating a trend towards higher-end products [4]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 19.28%, slightly down by 1.30 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in profitability from overseas operations [4][9]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 16.52 billion yuan, 19.75 billion yuan, and 23.23 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.88 billion yuan, 2.33 billion yuan, and 2.77 billion yuan [6][7]. - The diluted EPS is expected to rise to 6.57 yuan in 2025, 8.15 yuan in 2026, and 9.70 yuan in 2027, with PE ratios of 18.89, 15.21, and 12.79 respectively [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 173.41 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45.8%. The core OTA platform is expected to generate 142 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 22.1% [6]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 27.9 billion yuan, an increase of 26.7% compared to the previous year. The adjusted diluted EPS is estimated to be 1.20 yuan [2][6]. - The company is expected to achieve a breakeven point in its international business by 2025, with significant growth potential in international ticketing and hotel bookings [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024: 173.41 billion yuan - 2025: 198.61 billion yuan - 2026: 222.40 billion yuan - 2027: 243.36 billion yuan - Revenue growth rates are projected at 46%, 15%, 12%, and 9% respectively [2][6]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is 27.9 billion yuan, with projections of 32 billion yuan in 2025, 39 billion yuan in 2026, and 45 billion yuan in 2027 [2][6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - Adjusted diluted EPS is expected to grow from 1.20 yuan in 2024 to 1.93 yuan by 2027 [2][6]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - The adjusted PE ratio is projected to decrease from 15.36 in 2024 to 9.50 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [2][6]. User Engagement and Growth - The company reported a monthly average of 43.1 million paying users in 2024, a 4.4% increase year-on-year, with annual paying users reaching 240 million, marking a 1.5% growth [6]. - The average revenue per user (ARPU) increased by 44%, with the frequency of user consumption rising from 5.5 times in 2019 to 8.1 times in 2024 [6]. Cost Management and Profitability - The report highlights improved cost management, with a decrease in service development, sales, and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue [6]. - The adjusted net profit margin for the core OTA platform is projected to improve, indicating ongoing enhancements in profitability [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to the company, indicating that the stock is currently undervalued and has potential for growth [6]. Core Insights - The company has experienced multiple growth phases since its listing in 2014, but has been in a dormant phase from 2021 to 2024 due to market fluctuations [8][10]. - The company is a leader in the small home appliance supply chain, with significant production capabilities and a strong focus on international expansion and product category diversification [32][41]. - The brand "Mofei" has seen rapid growth, with revenue increasing from 115 million yuan in 2017 to 1.243 billion yuan in 2021, showcasing the effectiveness of its marketing strategies [9]. - The company is expected to recover its revenue and profit levels by 2024, surpassing previous highs due to the end of the inventory clearance cycle in the small appliance market [12][24]. Summary by Sections Market Data - The company's stock code is 002705.SZ, with a closing price of 16.45 yuan and a market capitalization of 132.94 billion yuan [1]. Financial Performance Forecast - Projected revenue for 2023 is 14.647 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.9%. By 2026, revenue is expected to reach 21.765 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 14.5% [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 977 million yuan in 2023 to 1.471 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [5]. Supply Chain and Production - The company is recognized as a small appliance supply chain leader, with a production capacity of 130 million units in 2023, significantly higher than competitors [32]. - The company has established four major production bases in China and is expanding its capacity in Indonesia to mitigate tariff risks [50][51]. Brand Strategy and Market Position - The company has developed a brand matrix strategy, with the Mofei brand emerging as a key player in the small appliance market, leveraging content marketing and product innovation [9][32]. - The company has diversified its product offerings beyond kitchen appliances, expanding into personal care, cleaning, and commercial appliances [58][60]. International Trade and Tariff Risks - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the company's export strategies, with a shift towards Southeast Asia for production to mitigate risks associated with U.S. tariffs [64][68]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with major global brands, enhancing its market presence in developed regions [40][43].

行业点评报告 · 家电行业 空调内外销稳健、美的海尔拥抱新技术新趋势 2 月空调产销数据点评 核心观点 家电行业 (维持) 推荐 分析师 何伟 ☎：021-20257811 ☑：hewei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525010001 ☎：010-80927637 网: yangce_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130520050005 2025 年 3 月 20 日 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-3-18 20% 资料来源：iFind,中国银河证券研究院 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 相比 4024 刺激高峰,2025 家电内销增速放缓,空调表现不错:1)统 ● 计局数据,2025年 1-2 月社零同比+4.0%,相比 4Q24 增速略有提升;家用 电器和音响器材类同比+10.9%,保持较好增长,但与 Q4 的靓丽增速相比有 所回落,表明消费者新鲜感已过;补贴政策优化后的通信器材类同比 +26.2%。2）产业在线数据, 1-2 月空调内销出货量同 ...

| ー、行情复盘 | | --- | | (一) 板块：本周上涨 2.86%，跑赢大盘 1.28% | | (二) 个股：本周上市券商股价表现优异，平均涨幅 3.2% | | 二、重要政策与行业动态 . | | (一) 证监会党委传达学习习近平总书记重要讲话精神和全国两会精神 | | (二) 自然资源部、财政部联合发布《关于做好运用地方政府专项债券支持土地储备有关工作的通知》…………………………………………………………………… | | (三) 上交所受理傲拓科技科创板 IPO 项目 | | (四) 证监会发布《上市公司监管指引第 11 号——上市公司破产重整相关事项》 | | 三、重要市场数据 . | | (一) Ａ股市场交投维持活跃… | | (二) 本周 A 股股权融资超 35 亿元 | | (三) 本周市场共计 19 只新基金发行 | | 四、估值与投资建议 . | | (一) 证券板块当前 PB 估值 1.47x（截至３月１４日） . | | (二) 投资建议 . | | 五、风险提示 . | 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 国银河证券|CGS -12.00% -10.00 ...

瞬汻煝疵 · 掾駬䫟⼴ 耘臅⥈䭶┬罥銩⭀ꅌꨴ3 劓⬑駖㠁✇ꓨ㗛鰑☋㴼⚃ꆒꀀ ———耘臅⥈ 3 劓駖䛉⚷駖掾駬䫟⼴ 2025 䌑 3 劓 20 傽 呦䖦間掾 ⮕卥䉞 匤鱪 (010-8092-7696 *yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn ⮕卥䉞溫駘罒焺S0130522030004 潸⪸煝疵 2025-03-17վ䳀䮵巆鰆┺뀉鉿Ⲙ做呿տ闌騣巆鰆愗 ⲇꓤ侒䭰䑜䫌鰑做⻔ 2025-03-10╚㎼艧䉗⺉◜⛓⡽婞䛨撬ꓨ卐 2025-03-05㸉 A 艧䉗㐙䫌鰑溸⼅獏2025 䌑侓䍠 䈰✑䫟⼴ꓤ侒〘◲ꓨ锢⟥⺵ 2025-02-21ⷂ⻔鰑ꓭ┱㎼ꮪ鰑ꓭ缏卐⻎뀡ꂖ儱⮕ 婤 2025-02-20DeepSeek ⬐⮄峒AI 鰘茤Ⲏꅌ䉗㐙臔 ⲹꓨ卐 2025-02-13㐌做═⚷㸉 A 艧䫌鰑缏卐劔〘◲⼅獏 2025-02-08վ⪸◟鰑勔䉗㐙⢳㟲ꓭ鄌"◩碋㝕倁皺" 㵄类䟩閒տ闌騣ꓭ鄌"◩碋㝕倁皺"⪴缔㺥譻㎽ 2025-02-07璇⮱☭䈰冝茤 ETF 䫌鰑⚃⡽⮕卥臔撌 燖璇䪫䱢ꓭ AI ⪢分╃ꨄ 2025-02-0510%⪸瓭Ⲏ䔰ꭶ A 艧溸缏卐䙎⬐⮄╚ 耘⪸瓭⫙ⶬ绣A 艧⮃⺛ꨄ"⸐ⲇ嵱駽" 2025-02-0 ...

宏观动态报告 以静制动的美联储态度并不鹰派 -3月 FOMC 会议 网: yujintong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080003 经济预测和点阵图整体指向滞胀担忧的增加,不过基准情况仍是软着陆,通胀预期虽然短期上调也并不 ● 鹰派:美联储官员短期更担忧通胀,但即使在滞胀预期升温之下也维持了 2 次降息的引导,这略显鸽 派。3 月 FOMC 会议的 SEP 将 GDP 增速预期从去年 12 月的 2.1%下调至 1.7%, 将 PCE 和核心 PCE 通胀增速分别从 2.5%和 2.5%上调至 2.7%和 2.8%（同时 2026 年通胀预期变化不大, 美联储 判断关税通胀是暂时性的） 将失业率从 4.3%上调至 4.4%的自然失业率水平附近。经济增长预期的下 调和通胀预期的上调主要在反映美联储对于关税冲击的评估,目前来看,美联储预期特朗普的关税和其 他经济改革可能拖累经济下行 0.4 个百分点，使名义通胀回升 0.3 个百分点，这相较于市场和学术研究 机构的测算处于偏下限水平。 2024 年 3 月 20 日 分析师 张迪 ☎: 010-8092-7737 ...

公司点评报告 · 农林牧渔行业 24年生猪量价齐升,屠宰业务实现单月盈利 2025 年 3 月 19 日 核心观点 牧原股份(股票代码:002714.SZ) 资料来源:Wind,中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 | 维持评级 | | --- | | 推荐 | 分析师 谢芝优 ☎: 021-68597609 网: xiezhiyou_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519020001 | 市场数据 | 2025-3-19 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 002714.SZ | | A 股收盘价(元) | 38.74 | | 上证指数 | 3426.43 | | 总股本(万股) | 546,276.82 | | 实际流通 A 股(万股) | 381,072.29 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 1476.27 | 2025-3-19 相对沪深 300 表现图 30% 20% 10% (10% -10% -20% ● 事件:公司发布 2024年年度报 ...