Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [2]. Core Insights - The AI sector is a core competitive arena between China and the US, with ongoing multi-dimensional competition in policy, technology, and funding. The US currently holds a first-mover advantage, but China is catching up, eliminating the technological gap [5][16]. - DeepSeek's deployment is driving significant demand for computing power across various industries, with a notable increase in commercial applications and cloud service integration [20][21]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - AI is a key competitive field between China and the US, with the US imposing restrictions on high-end chip purchases by China, while China is fostering open collaboration [5][16]. - DeepSeek's optimization reduces the need for high-end chips and promotes the development of smaller models, enhancing edge deployment [17][20]. - The deployment of DeepSeek has led to widespread cloud service integration, establishing a commercial charging model and increasing demand for computing power across various sectors [20][21]. Industry News - DeepSeek has become a focal point for multiple parties, with various cloud providers and government entities successfully deploying or integrating the model [21]. - The 2025 China Artificial Intelligence Computing Power Development Assessment Report predicts that the scale of intelligent computing power will double within two years, reaching 1,037.3 EFLOPS by 2025 [23]. - ByteDance's UltraMem sparse model architecture significantly reduces inference costs by up to 83%, enhancing the feasibility of large model applications [24]. - The successful launch of the low-orbit satellite group for the GW constellation marks a significant step in expanding satellite internet capabilities [25]. Market Review and Focus - The telecommunications sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 3.20% increase in the index, while the AI computing index rose by 12.24% [26][28]. - Key companies to watch include ZTE, Unisoc, and Meig Smart, among others, as they are positioned to benefit from advancements in AI and computing infrastructure [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail industry [2] Core Insights - The rise of domestic AI models and supportive policies are expected to drive the "AI + consumption" trend, enhancing efficiency across various sectors [5][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications in sectors such as human resources, education, e-commerce, offline retail, beauty, and OTA [5][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The retail sector has shown a performance decline of 26% compared to the CSI 300 index [3] AI Development - Multiple domestic AI models have made significant advancements in early 2025, including the launch of DeepSeek-R1, which has gained substantial user engagement [5][7] - The cost of DeepSeek-R1 API services is significantly lower than that of OpenAI's models, making it an attractive option for businesses [7][9] Policy Support - Recent government initiatives aim to promote "AI + consumption" as a key strategy for boosting economic growth and enhancing consumer experiences [9][10] Sector-Specific Opportunities - **Human Resources**: Companies like Beijing Renli and Keri International are leveraging AI for recruitment efficiency [12][15] - **Education**: Institutions such as Bean Education and Action Education are integrating AI to enhance learning experiences and operational efficiency [12][13] - **E-commerce**: Companies like Focus Technology and Aike Innovation are utilizing AI for product selection and customer service improvements [17][18] - **Offline Retail**: Retailers like IKEA and Kidswant are adopting AI to enhance customer engagement and marketing precision [19][20] - **Beauty**: Brands are employing AI for personalized skincare solutions and product development [20][21] - **OTA**: Travel platforms are implementing AI to optimize customer service and operational efficiency [15][21]

Group 1: Consumption Trends - China is transitioning into a "quality consumption" era, where consumers prioritize product quality over marketing gimmicks[3] - The average ticket price for movies has slightly increased, but the structure of consumption shows significant differentiation, with "Ne Zha" accounting for over 50% of the box office during the Spring Festival[7] - Consumer behavior is categorized into four types: quality consumption, price-performance pursuit, consumption upgrade, and consumption downgrade[3] Group 2: Economic Insights - The logic of supply creating demand is questioned; while Keynesian economics suggests expanding total demand, it can lead to overcapacity risks and inflation[3][51] - Recent data shows a 46% year-on-year increase in Spring Festival box office revenue and a 42% increase in audience numbers[5] - The rise of online review platforms has increased transparency in product quality, reducing trial and error consumption[40] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To stimulate consumption, both macroeconomic policies and microeconomic incentives for quality supply are necessary[3] - The potential of the Chinese consumer market is vast, and policies should focus on creating more high-quality supply scenarios[3] - The emergence of new consumption trends, such as "first-release economy" and "silver economy," highlights the need for targeted economic strategies[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the entertainment products industry [2][6]. Core Insights - The success of the animated film "Nezha 2" has significantly boosted related merchandise sales, highlighting the high scarcity of quality IP content in the market [6]. - The film has set a record in Chinese cinema, surpassing 9 billion yuan in box office revenue, and has become the highest-grossing animated film globally [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality content and production standards in driving audience engagement and satisfaction [6]. Market Performance - The entertainment products sector has shown a notable performance trend, with a significant increase in sales of related merchandise following the success of "Nezha 2" [3][6]. - The report notes that the Spring Festival box office reached 9.51 billion yuan, with 187 million viewers, marking the highest figures in Chinese history [6]. Product Sales and Trends - Various merchandise categories have seen explosive sales, including toys, food and beverages, daily necessities, and jewelry, all linked to the "Nezha 2" IP [6][7]. - For instance, Pop Mart's "Nezha 2" blind boxes sold over 10 million yuan within eight days, while Mengniu's related products exceeded 5 million yuan in sales [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with rich IP portfolios and differentiated product capabilities, such as Pop Mart and Miniso [6][7]. - It also highlights the potential of traditional retailers transitioning into brand retailers, recommending companies like Miniso and Aiyingshi for their strategic shifts [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Insights - The arrival of spring plowing is expected to boost the fertilizer sector, with specific attention on potassium fertilizers due to rising international demand and tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imports from Canada [5]. - The phosphate fertilizer market is supported by declining domestic mining grades and increasing demand from downstream sectors, particularly lithium iron phosphate [5]. - The compound fertilizer sector is witnessing a rise in market concentration, benefiting from price increases in raw materials [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights - Spring plowing is anticipated to enhance fertilizer market conditions, particularly for potassium fertilizers, with U.S. tariffs likely driving prices up [5]. - Phosphate prices are supported by a tight supply-demand balance, with domestic mining challenges and rising demand from new applications [5]. - The compound fertilizer market is seeing increased concentration, with a growing share of usage and price support from raw material costs [5]. 2. Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index rose by 1.6% during the week, aligning with the Shanghai Composite Index, while underperforming the ChiNext Index by 3.8 percentage points [21]. - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 1.0%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.5 percentage points [21]. 3. Individual Stock Performance - Among 426 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 345 stocks rose, with notable gainers including航锦科技 (+33.1%) and 东方材料 (+33.1%) [29]. - Conversely, stocks like 兴业股份 (-14.9%) and 金奥博 (-9.1%) experienced significant declines [29]. 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The State Council issued guidelines to promote high-quality development in refined oil circulation, which is expected to benefit the biodiesel sector [7]. - The report highlights the potential for biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to achieve commercial breakthroughs due to supportive policies [7]. 5. Product Price and Spread Analysis - As of February 8, prices for potassium chloride, monoammonium phosphate, and compound fertilizers were reported at 2664, 2988, and 2320 CNY per ton, respectively, with varying weekly and monthly changes [6]. - The report notes that the price of potassium fertilizers is likely to rise due to tariff impacts and supply constraints [5].

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 4.《煤炭行业点评：中长期资金入 市方案发布，持续看好红利价值》， 2025.1.23 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报：政策再加码，持续 关注红利投资机会》，2025.1.25 2.《煤炭行业基金持仓分析：低配 幅 度 收 窄 ， 红 利 价 值 凸 显 》， 2025.1.25 3.《煤焦钢春季策略：需求望复 苏，下游看弹性，上游看红利》， 2025.1.23 5.《煤炭周报：静待需求发力，春 季行情可期》，2025.1.19 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 2025 年 02 月 09 日 煤炭周报：对美煤炭加征关税支 撑煤价，持续看好煤焦钢春季行 情 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 第八轮提 ...

文娱用品 2025 年 02 月 08 日 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 文娱用品 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 万代南梦宫业绩超预期的启示： IP 产业星辰大海 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 优于大市（维持） 市场表现 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 37% 49% 61% 73% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 文娱用品 沪深300 易丁依，上海财经大学金融硕士，21 年 6 月加入德邦证券，负责医美、化妆品领域研究，把握颜值经济行业趋势、分析用户画像、研 究终端产品、高频跟踪渠道动销，深挖公司基本面型选手，挖掘胶原蛋白等前沿细分市场。 分析师声明 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 事件：万代南梦宫发布业绩预告，相比彭博一致预期超预期：2025 财年 Q3，公司 实现营收 3442.7 亿日元/+27.49%，高于彭博一致预期 3121.3 亿日元，归母净利 润 479.7 亿日元/+482.8%，归母净利率 13 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 通信 2025 年 02 月 08 日 通信 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -11% 0% 11% 22% 33% 44% 55% 66% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 通信 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《DeepSeek，中国算力模式胜出 的加速器》，2025.2.5 2.《AI 基础设施助推"玩具场景"， C 端应用或将放量》，2025.1.25 3.《台积电入场，光引擎进入芯片时 代？》，2025.1.22 4.《"AI+"推动 capex 增加，算力基 础设施和端侧应用受益》，2025.1.18 5.《市场波动，新型数据基础设施加 力》，2025.1.11 DeepSeek 快速渗透，商业模式优势 加速基础设施爆发 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 1. 投资策略 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1.1 DeepSeek 或动摇高端算力卡地位，国产算力链迎来机会。DeepSe ...

所属行业：计算机/IT 服务Ⅱ 当前价格(元)：56.94 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 中科星图(688568.SH) 2025 年 02 月 07 日 买入（维持） 证券分析师 陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 李佩京 资格编号：S0120524090004 邮箱：lipj＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 中科星图 沪深300 | 沪深300对比 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对涨幅(%) | 24.75 | -2.99 | 3.26 | | 相对涨幅(%) | 22.79 | 0.29 | 7.77 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 相关研究 1.《中科星图：低空云 V1.0 发布，迈 向 AI 算力+低空 SaaS 新征程》， 2025.1.19 2.《中 ...

王华炳 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业深度 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王友舜 邮箱：wangys5＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 31% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 基础化工 沪深300 扩产周期步入尾声，新领域引领 新需求 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 有机硅：应用广泛的硅基新材料。有机硅指含有硅碳键（Si-C），且至少有一个有 机基团直接与硅原子相连的一大门类化合物，是工业硅下游中应用最为广泛的化学 品之一。有机硅下游产品中硅橡胶消费量占比最大（可达 60%以上），硅油次之（占 比近 30%），其余产品包括硅树脂、功能性硅烷等。从终端应用领域来看，有机硅 因其独特的结构，兼备无机材料与有机材料的性能优势，在建筑装饰、纺织制造、 医疗护理、汽车交通、工业助剂等传统领域，以及光伏、新能源汽车等新兴领域均 有着广泛应用。 基于供需平衡表角度，有机硅格 ...