计算机 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 优于大市（维持） 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 李佩京 资格编号：S0120524090004 邮箱：lipj＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -13% 0% 13% 27% 40% 54% 67% 81% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 计算机 沪深300 证券分析师 陈涵泊 相关研究 1.《DeepSeek 系列开源模型有望加 速 AI 端 侧 + 应 用 产 业 趋 势 》， 2025.2.3 2.《AI Agent：从 API 到 GUI 交互， Operator 重塑流程化》，2025.1.25 3.《中科星图：低空云 V1.0 发布， 迈向 AI 算力+低空 SaaS 新征程》， 2025.1.19 4.《美国首个全球 AI 禁令发布，关注 国产推理算力产业链》，2025.1.18 5.《财政发力，计算机板块基座夯 实》，2025.1.12 计算机 2025 年 02 月 07 日 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 [Table_Main] 宏观专题 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 负债端视角看我国利率体系 ——宏观 ABC 系列之六 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点：在广谱利率下行的过程中，资管机构需要关注资产端收益率下行带来的 资产配置调整，更需要关注负债端成本变化带来的危与机，为应对低利率环境，资 管机构需要更积极开展负债端管理，以更大的努力吸引低成本负债，稳定客户群 体，确保负债端稳健，以实现长期持续发展。 一、中国的利率体系 二、从金融机构负债端认识利率体系 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年 02 月 06 日 我国的利率体系主要包括存贷款利率体系和金融市场利率体系两个链条。存贷款 利率体系以银行为中介，银行撮合资金供需间接匹配；金融市场利率则在直接交易 中形成，供需双方自行匹配。在两个链条中间，银行 FTP 定价机制在贷款利率与 金融市场利率之间建立起比价关系。 央行利率走廊：超额准备金利率为 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 医药生物 2025 年 02 月 05 日 医药生物 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 周新明 资格编号：S0120524060001 邮箱：zhouxm＠tebon.com.cn 2.《医药行业周报： 中医发展看名 医，医保合规利龙头》，2025.1.12 3.《医药行业周报： 和黄医药剥离 中药资产，出海有望迎来新局面》， 2025.1.6 4.《昆药集团：集采续约平稳落 地，圣火并表未来可期》，2025.1.3 5.《医药行业周报：GLP-1 授权再 次 火 热 ， 哪 些 管 线 值 得 关 注 》， 2024.12.29 医药行业周报：24Q4 基金分析，创 新药、并购重组等强逻辑个股获增持 陈进 资格编号：S0120521110001 邮箱：chenjing3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 43% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 医药生物 沪深300 数据来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《医药行业周报： JPM 大会中国 公司梳理，开启创新 3.0 时代》， 20 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 计算机 2025 年 02 月 03 日 计算机 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 李佩京 资格编号：S0120524090004 邮箱：lipj＠tebon.com.cn 王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -13% 0% 13% 27% 40% 54% 67% 81% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《AI Agent：从 API 到 GUI 交互， Operator 重塑流程化》，2025.1.25 2.《中科星图：低空云 V1.0 发布， 迈向 AI 算力+低空 SaaS 新征程》， 2025.1.19 3.《美国首个全球 AI 禁令发布，关注 国产推理算力产业链》，2025.1.18 4.《财政发力，计算机板块基座夯 实》，2025.1.12 5.《中科星图：低空 AI 算力龙头新起 点》，2025.1.7 研究助理 DeepSeek 系列开源模型有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail trade industry [2] Core Insights - The ice and snow industry is entering a rapid development phase driven by policies and events, with significant growth potential expected in the coming years [7][8] - The ice and snow economy is anticipated to become a crucial growth point for domestic demand in China, particularly benefiting the tourism sector by addressing the seasonal downturn in winter tourism [8][137] Summary by Sections 1. Ice and Snow Industry Development - The ice and snow industry has evolved from a niche market to a mainstream lifestyle choice, significantly boosted by the successful hosting of the Winter Olympics and subsequent policy support [15][18] - The industry has seen substantial growth, with the market size expanding from CNY 270 billion in 2015 to CNY 890 billion in 2023, and projected to exceed CNY 1 trillion by 2025 [30][31] 2. Retail Sector Key Companies - **Dalian Shengya**: Focuses on aquarium operations and has seen significant revenue growth from its main attractions, benefiting from increased tourist flow in Northeast China [112][122] - **Dashi Group**: A leading retail enterprise in Northeast China, with a diverse business model including department stores and supermarkets, showing stable revenue growth [66][67] - **Zhongxing Commercial**: A key player in the Liaoning region, focusing on department store operations and innovative projects like an immersive dinosaur museum [80][84] 3. Tourism Sector Key Companies - **Changbai Mountain**: Positioned to benefit from increased tourist traffic due to improved transportation and unique ice and snow resources, with a focus on comprehensive tourism services [88][100] - **Xiyu Tourism**: The only state-owned listed tourism company in Xinjiang, leveraging rich ice and snow resources and exploring new low-altitude tourism opportunities [130][135] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Changbai Mountain, Dalian Shengya, Xiyu Tourism, Dashi Group, and Zhongxing Commercial, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on the growth of the ice and snow economy [8][138]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the supply-demand inflection point has been reached, with inventory at a bottom level, indicating potential for profit elasticity in the upcoming peak seasons [4][6] - The long-term supply-demand landscape is expected to improve, with a significant slowdown in the growth rate of supply capacity, leading to increased industry concentration [6][51] - Tongkun maintains its leading position in the polyester filament market, with plans for extensive growth in refining operations [5][90] Summary by Sections 1. Steady Expansion in Core Business - Tongkun has evolved from a local chemical fiber factory established in 1981 to a leading global player in the chemical fiber industry, achieving significant growth in production capacity and revenue [14][15] - The company has expanded its polyester filament capacity from 4 million tons in 2015 to 13.5 million tons in 2023, with a CAGR of 16.4% [6][27] 2. Inventory at Bottom Level, Positive Long-term Supply-Demand Outlook - As of January 17, 2024, the inventory levels for POY, DTY, and FDY are at 5.8, 17.3, and 12.6 days respectively, indicating a significant reduction and positioning at historical low levels [6][38] - The supply growth rate for polyester filament is projected to decline from 7.1% (2017-2023) to 1.5% (2024-2026), enhancing the industry's long-term profitability [6][51] - Demand for polyester filament is expected to benefit from both domestic consumption and strong export performance, with a projected supply-demand gap of 230,000 tons in 2024 [6][89] 3. Leading Market Share in Polyester Filament, Broad Growth in Refining Layout - Tongkun holds the largest market share in polyester filament production in China, with a focus on upstream refining to secure core raw material supply [90][92] - The company has invested in Zhejiang Petrochemical, holding a 20% stake, which has contributed significantly to its cash flow and investment returns [90][92] - The Indonesian refining project is expected to enhance Tongkun's overall economic benefits and market competitiveness, with projected annual revenues of $7.402 billion upon completion [92][93] 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for Tongkun to be 1.215 billion, 1.805 billion, and 2.421 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 52.5%, 48.5%, and 34.2% [107] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.51, 0.75, and 1.01 yuan [107] - The report indicates that Tongkun is undervalued compared to its peers, with a lower PE ratio forecasted for the coming years [107][109]

Policy Insights - The central economic work conference has led to significant fluctuations in major asset prices, with the stock market oscillating between bullish and bearish sentiments[5] - Local governments have set higher GDP, fixed asset investment, and retail sales targets for 2025 compared to actual values in 2024, indicating increased economic activity[16] Fiscal Developments - Broad fiscal spending growth was 2.7% in 2024, marking a 1.3 percentage point increase from previous values, with a projected deficit of around 4.5 trillion yuan for 2025[18] - As of January 25, 2025, the issuance of special bonds reached 198 billion yuan, significantly higher than 56.8 billion yuan in January 2024, although still below the average level since 2019[18][27] Commodity Market Trends - January's PPI is expected to improve to -1.9%, a 0.4 percentage point increase from December, driven by rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions[36] - Domestic commodity prices have shown signs of recovery, with steel prices increasing slightly, indicating a potential stabilization in the market[32] Consumer Behavior - The 2025 Spring Festival saw a notable increase in consumer activity, with inbound tourism expected to grow by over 70% year-on-year, supported by visa policy changes[43] - The average travel duration during the Spring Festival increased to 4.8 days, with 43% of travelers opting for 5-6 day trips, reflecting a shift towards quality experiences[49] Real Estate Market - New home sales in key cities increased by 33% year-on-year in January 2025, with a notable rise in transaction volumes in cities like Suzhou, which saw a 137.27% increase[55] - Approximately 30 cities have reported a temporary stabilization in housing prices, with some cities like Laiyang and Huangshan experiencing significant rebounds of 8.98% and 6.99% respectively[56] Transportation Trends - The 2025 Spring Festival transportation volume is expected to exceed previous years, with significant increases in passenger numbers across all transport modes compared to 2024[61] - The Baidu migration index indicates a strong return of workers from major cities, suggesting increased consumer spending in lower-tier cities during the Spring Festival[75] Market Mechanisms - Continuous reforms in the capital market aim to establish a long-term stability mechanism, with policies encouraging the entry of long-term funds into the market[90] - The government is focusing on enhancing the internal stability of the capital market through various financial instruments and regulatory measures[91]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In December 2024, industrial enterprises' profits turned from decline to growth, with a monthly profit increase of 11.0% year-on-year, a significant rebound of 18.3 percentage points compared to November[4] - For the entire year of 2024, profits of industrial enterprises decreased by 3.3%, but the decline narrowed by 1.4 percentage points compared to the first eleven months[4] - The profit margin for the year was 5.39%, down 0.37 percentage points year-on-year, while December's profit margin was 5.34%, up from 5.05% in the same month last year[4] Group 2: Production and Price Dynamics - December's industrial added value grew by 6.2% year-on-year, an increase from November's 5.4%[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in December showed a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, improving from November's decline of 2.5%[4] - The cost per 100 yuan of revenue for industrial enterprises was 85.16 yuan, an increase of 0.40 yuan year-on-year, while expenses were 8.59 yuan, up 0.03 yuan year-on-year[4] Group 3: Inventory and Leverage Insights - Industrial enterprises' nominal inventory grew by 3.3% year-on-year in December, remaining flat compared to November, marking five consecutive months of decline[6] - The leverage ratio for industrial enterprises showed a rebound, with liabilities growing faster than assets and equity for two consecutive months, indicating a potential recovery in leverage willingness[6] - The asset-liability ratio for industrial enterprises was recorded at 57.5% in December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.16 percentage points[6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Ximai Food (002956.SZ) as a first coverage [1]. Core Viewpoints - Ximai Food, established in 1994, is a leading player in the oat food industry with a comprehensive supply chain [8]. - The company has shown steady revenue growth over the past five years, with total revenue increasing from 851 million yuan in 2018 to 1.578 billion yuan in 2023, representing a CAGR of 13.1% [25]. - The oat industry in China is projected to reach a market size of 10.134 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth potential due to low per capita consumption compared to developed countries [31][33]. - The company is diversifying its sales channels, with a notable increase in online sales, particularly through platforms like Douyin [39][42]. - The acquisition of Chengdu Desai Kanggu in March 2024 marks the company's entry into the yogurt-topped oat market, expected to contribute to future revenue growth [49]. Company Overview - Ximai Food is recognized as the "first oat stock" in China, focusing on the entire industry chain from breeding to sales [8]. - The company has a stable and concentrated ownership structure, primarily held by the Xie family [9]. - The product matrix includes pure oats, composite oats, and cold oats, with composite oats rapidly gaining market share [14]. Financial Analysis - The company's net profit has faced pressure, declining from 137 million yuan in 2018 to 115 million yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of -3.4% [25]. - The gross profit margin has been affected by rising raw material costs, with a margin of 44.5% in 2023 [27]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 1.968 billion yuan, 2.404 billion yuan, and 2.923 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 134 million yuan, 191 million yuan, and 243 million yuan [52]. Industry Analysis - The oat industry in China is characterized by a market size exceeding 10 billion yuan, with a projected CAGR of 3.5% from 2019 to 2024 [31]. - Instant oats are expected to continue being the mainstream product, while online sales channels are increasingly important [32]. - The industry is currently dominated by a few key players, with Ximai Food holding a market share of 26% [33]. Future Development - The company is enhancing its channel penetration and has established a robust sales network with 1,718 suppliers as of the end of 2023 [39]. - The rapid growth of snack wholesale channels is expected to provide additional revenue opportunities [41]. - The company aims to leverage its strong customer loyalty and pricing power to benefit from the growth of the snack wholesale market [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Trump may pressure the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which could positively impact precious metals [5]. - The report notes a mixed performance in industrial metals, with copper prices declining while other metals show varied trends [5]. - The overall outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector is optimistic due to supportive monetary policies and potential demand recovery [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review - Precious Metals: Gold prices increased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's spot price at 646 CNY per gram, reflecting a weekly change of 1.2% and a yearly change of 35.0% [14]. - Industrial Metals: Prices are mixed, with SHFE copper down 0.9% and LME copper up 0.9% [33]. - Rare Earths & Tungsten: Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide rose, while tungsten concentrate prices remained stable [79]. - Small Metals: Prices for manganese and magnesium increased [84]. - Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate prices remained stable, with a focus on future demand growth [97]. 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 0.91% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's increase of 0.33% [109]. 3. Important Events Review - Trump expressed intentions to advocate for lower interest rates during a speech at the World Economic Forum, which could influence market dynamics [112]. 4. Earnings Forecast - The report includes earnings forecasts for various companies, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [114][115].