Market Performance - Global stock markets saw more gains than losses last week, with the Hang Seng Tech Index leading the major markets[1] - The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rose by +2.2%, +1.7%, and +1.7% respectively[1] - European markets showed mixed results, with France's CAC40 and Germany's DAX increasing, while the UK's FTSE 100 experienced a slight pullback[1] - In the Asia-Pacific region, most indices rose, with only India's SENSEX30 showing a minor decline[1] Earnings Reports - Major Wall Street banks reported strong earnings, boosting market confidence, with Netflix's Q4 revenue at $10.25 billion and net profit at $1.87 billion, exceeding expectations[2] - Netflix's paid membership surpassed 300 million, adding over 19 million new members, a record high[2] - TSMC also reported Q4 revenue of $26.88 billion, contributing to positive sentiment in the tech sector[2] Monetary Policy and Risks - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5%, marking the largest increase since February 2007, which may impact global financial markets[3] - Risks include potential inflation rebounds exceeding expectations, weaker global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating unexpectedly[2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining sector is expected to see a rebound in demand, driven by policy support and a recovery in the economy, which will enhance the price outlook for coal [23][24] - The report highlights the significance of high-dividend coal stocks, suggesting that they will become a key focus for investors [26][27] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with expectations of increased liquidity in the capital markets due to the influx of long-term funds [24][25] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In Q4 2024, the coal sector declined by 2.29%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 8.56%, resulting in a relative underperformance of 10.85 percentage points [6][12] - Among sub-sectors, coking coal outperformed, while thermal coal saw a decline of 4.08% [12] 2. Fund Holdings Overview - The coal sector's holdings in public funds increased to 0.99%, indicating a narrowing of the underweight position [16] - The total number of shares held in coal companies rose by 14.04 million shares in Q4 2024, with 15 companies experiencing increased holdings [20][21] 3. Long-term Returns - The average compound return for coal companies since their listing until Q4 2024 is 9.3%, with reinvested dividends yielding an average of 9.7% [29] - The report suggests that high-dividend coal stocks are likely to attract more investment due to favorable economic conditions and policy support [26][27] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main areas: high-quality dividends, dual-coke elasticity, and long-term growth potential [31][35] - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, China Coal Energy, and Yancoal Australia, among others [31][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry [2][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of AI Agents as a significant trend, with the market expected to reach $5 billion by 2024 and grow to $47 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 44.8% [5]. - OpenAI's launch of the Operator, powered by the Computer-Using Agent (CUA) model, demonstrates advancements in AI capabilities, achieving task success rates of 38.1% on OSWorld, 58.1% on WebArena, and 87% on WebVoyager [5]. - The report emphasizes the increasing involvement of major tech companies in AI Agent development, indicating a robust competitive landscape and potential for rapid technological evolution [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer sector has shown a performance trend against the CSI 300 index, with fluctuations observed from January to September 2024 [3]. Related Research - Several related reports are mentioned, focusing on advancements in AI capabilities and the implications for the computing sector, including the launch of low-altitude cloud services and the impact of AI regulations [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as BoRui Data, Fanwei Network, Kingdee International, and others, which are positioned to benefit from the growth in AI and computing technologies [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the infrastructure for edge computing is taking shape, leading to a potential surge in consumer applications [4][14] - It emphasizes the acceleration of GPU iteration cycles, which may shift the C-end market towards a growth-oriented trajectory [15][16] - Continuous investment in computing power infrastructure by both China and the US is noted as a significant trend [16][18] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The initial establishment of edge computing capabilities is expected to lead to a boom in consumer applications, with companies like移远通信 and广和通 launching AI solutions for smart toys [4][14] - The acceleration of GPU iteration cycles is anticipated to impact the industry positively, with a notable increase in demand for IoT solutions, as evidenced by a 25% year-on-year growth in China's cellular IoT module shipments [15] - The report forecasts a substantial growth in the AI Agent market in China, projecting a compound annual growth rate of 72.7% from 2023 to 2028 [15] Industry News - The establishment of the National Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund with a capital of 60.06 billion RMB is expected to support the AI industry [18] - Major IoT module manufacturers are integrating large AI models into their solutions, indicating a shift towards AI-driven applications [19] - The monthly active users of AIGC apps in China have surpassed 100 million, reflecting strong demand for AI applications [20] - The successful launch of 18 satellites for the Qianfan constellation marks a significant advancement in satellite communication capabilities [23] Market Review and Focus - The telecommunications sector saw a 4.35% increase this week, outperforming major indices [24] - Key stocks to watch include those related to CPO and AI edge applications, such as中际旭创 and博创科技 [28] - Long-term focus includes major operators like中国移动 and equipment manufacturers like中兴通讯 [28]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 商贸零售 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn 周诗琪 资格编号：S0120524120003 邮箱：zhousq＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 商贸零售 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《——商贸社服周专题 1229-复盘 万代南梦宫在中国市场发展情况》， 2024.12.29 2.《——商贸社服周专题 1222-微信 小店送礼功能灰测，依靠社交属性快 速破圈》，2024.12.22 3.《——商社板块 25 全年策略-对消 费乐观一些》，2024.12.10 长期推荐巨子生物、爱美客；宠物处于量价提升的高增长阶段，国货性价比替代并 在双十一取得优秀成绩，行业具有逆周期特征，长期推荐乖宝宠物、弹性关注中宠 股份；旅游行业自疫情后迎来景气度攀升，国人对于走进户外、休闲度假的需求正 在提升，在此背景下我们看好旅游消费，建议关注同程旅 ...

煤炭 1.《新集能源（601918.SH）：业绩 符合预期，煤电一体成长可期》， 2025.1.9 2.《煤炭周报：煤价触底反弹，坚 守红利逻辑》，2025.1.5 3.《煤炭周报：煤价止跌企稳，持 续看好红利价值》，2024.12.29 4.《煤炭周报：政策加码，重视红 利价值》，2024.12.22 5.《煤炭行业点评：政策支持力度 提 升 ， 红 利 价 值 持 续 显 现 》， 2024.12.19 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 37% 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 2025 年 01 月 25 日 煤炭周报：政策再加码，持续关 注红利投资机会 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 供需两弱，动力煤价下跌。 A）价格及事件 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) as a first coverage [1]. Core Views - MINISO is positioned as a global leader in the trendy lifestyle retail sector, focusing on high-quality, cost-effective products for young consumers. The company has successfully expanded its presence with 7,186 stores across 111 countries as of September 30, 2024 [11][12]. - The report highlights the company's robust financial performance, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.35% in revenue from 2020 to 2023, and a significant recovery post-pandemic, achieving a revenue growth of 39.43% in 2023 [15][16]. - MINISO's strategic focus on IP (intellectual property) upgrades and global expansion is expected to drive future growth, with plans to increase store count significantly in high-consumption markets like North America and Europe [47][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - MINISO is the largest private label retailer globally, established in 2009, targeting young consumers with a focus on trendy, affordable products. The company has developed two main brands: MINISO and TOPTOY [11][12]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founders holding 62.5% of the shares, ensuring stable governance [21][23]. 2. Historical Success Factors - The company has successfully navigated the competitive retail landscape by focusing on essential consumer goods and maintaining a self-operated sales model, which enhances brand recognition [27][28]. - MINISO's product strategy emphasizes frequent new product launches and competitive pricing, supported by a strong supply chain [30][32]. 3. Future Growth Prospects - The company aims to enhance its IP strategy, with a target of over 50% of sales coming from IP-related products by 2028. Currently, IP products account for over 30% of total sales [48][49]. - MINISO plans to expand its global footprint, targeting an annual increase of 900-1,100 stores worldwide from 2024 to 2028, with a focus on high-value markets [72][63]. 4. Financial Forecast - The report forecasts MINISO's revenue to reach CNY 171.67 billion, CNY 207.55 billion, and CNY 241.04 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of CNY 26.9 billion, CNY 33.5 billion, and CNY 40.8 billion [78]. - The company's valuation is projected to improve as it transitions from a channel retailer to a brand retailer, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.5, 16.5, and 13.5 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [78][79].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has successfully transitioned from a single product focus to a diversified beverage group, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.9% in revenue from 2019 to 2023, with revenue reaching 11.26 billion yuan in 2023 [6][34] - The energy drink market in China is expanding, with significant growth potential in the younger demographic, and the company is well-positioned to capture this market [6][42] - The company is leveraging digital transformation and a robust marketing strategy to enhance brand recognition and market share [6][17] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has developed a comprehensive product matrix centered around energy drinks, with significant revenue growth from 4.21 billion yuan in 2019 to 11.26 billion yuan in 2023 [6][34] - The company has established a national sales network covering 3.6 million active stores, reflecting a 9.09% year-on-year increase [6][15] 2. Market Performance - The energy drink market in China was valued at 57.57 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected CAGR of 11.8% from 2013 to 2028 [42] - The company has achieved a market share of 43.02% in the energy drink segment, ranking first in sales volume [25][51] 3. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to reach 16.16 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 43.5% [16][150] - The net profit is expected to grow to 3.28 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 61% increase compared to the previous year [16][150] 4. Product Strategy - The company has implemented a "1+6+N" multi-category strategy, introducing new products such as electrolyte drinks and low-sugar tea, which have shown significant revenue growth [6][25] - The electrolyte drink "Brew Water" achieved a revenue of 1.21 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a 292% increase year-on-year [6][16] 5. International Expansion - The company plans to establish a production base in Indonesia to enhance its presence in the Southeast Asian market, which is expected to reach a market size of 2.64 billion USD by 2025 [6][125] - The company has already entered 23 countries and regions, with overseas revenue contributing 0.14% to total revenue in the first half of 2024 [6][142] 6. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 20.68 billion yuan and 25.18 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [16][150] - The report emphasizes the company's solid brand, product, and channel advantages, which create a robust competitive moat in the beverage industry [6][152]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangnan Chemical (002226.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - Jiangnan Chemical's 2024 performance is expected to exceed expectations, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 866 million to 1.098 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.02% to 42.02% [6][9] - The company has secured significant contracts, with a total of 10.18 billion yuan in new contracts for 2024, indicating strong growth potential [6][10] - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic civil explosives industry, benefiting from favorable conditions in Xinjiang and ongoing debt resolution policies [6][9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Jiangnan Chemical's stock price has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with absolute growth rates of 5.20% over 1 month, 4.81% over 2 months, and 27.19% over 3 months [3][4] Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit of 866 million to 1.098 billion yuan for 2024, with a significant increase in Q4 net profit projected to be between 116 million and 348 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 59.14% to 376.55% [6][9] - The total revenue for 2024 is forecasted to be 9.81 billion yuan, with a net profit of 952 million yuan, and an EPS of 0.36 yuan [12] Contract and Order Situation - Jiangnan Chemical has signed or begun executing contracts worth 27.47 billion yuan for the second half of 2024, with a total of 101.8 billion yuan in new contracts for the year [6][10] - The company has a strong order backlog, with 85.2% of contracts exceeding 100 million yuan, indicating a robust pipeline for future revenue [6][10] Industry Position - Jiangnan Chemical is the leading company in the civil explosives sector, with a production capacity of 768,500 tons of explosives, benefiting from high demand in Xinjiang [6][9] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the civil explosives industry and the injection of quality assets from its major shareholder, the Weapon Group [6][9]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业季度策略 煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 37% 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报：静待需求发力，春季 行情可期》，2025.1.19 2.《全球煤炭展望：供给见顶回落， 需求达峰尚早》，2025.1.17 3.《煤炭周报：煤价止跌企稳，布局 春季行情》，2025.1.12 4.《新集能源（601918.SH）：业绩符 合 预 期 ， 煤 电 一 体 成 长 可 期 》， 2025.1.9 5.《煤炭周报：煤价触底反弹，坚守 红利逻辑》，2025.1.5 煤炭开采 煤焦钢春季策略：需求望复苏，下游 看弹性，上游看红利 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年 01 月 23 日 政策持续加码，内 ...