资格编号: S0120523070004 邮箱: yidy@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 商贸重售 26% 17% 9% 0% -9% -17% -26%02 -34% 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《——商贸社服周专题 1103-为何 达播主导今年双十一? 》, 2024.11.3 2.《——商社周报 1026-宠物三季报 总结:板块延续高景气，双十一开售 数据亮眼》, 2024.10.26 3.《——商贸社服周报 1020-双十一 首周总结:胶原成分爆发,品牌表现 分化》, 2024.10.20 4.《——商社周报 1013-全国多地发 放消费券,加速催化餐饮零售板块反 弹》, 2024.10.13 5.《——商贸社服板块周报 0811-从 韩国龙头丽珠兰,看三文鱼水光市场 空间》, 2024.8.11 证券研究报告|行业周报 商贸零售 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|-------|-------------------------| | | | 2024 年 11 月 10 日 | | 商贸零售 | | 大选落地后关税担忧升级, | ...

资格编号: S0120522120002 邮箱: xiongpeng@tebon.com.cn 黄欣培 资格编号：S0120524100002 邮箱：huangxp3@tebon.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 食品饮料 2024 年 11 月 10 日 | --- | --- | |-----------------|------------------------------------| | 食品饮料 | 化债政策落地,看好板块走 | | 优于大市 (维持) | 性向上 | | 证券分析师 | | | 熊鹏 | 食品饮料行业周报 20241104-20241109 | 投资要点: · 白酒:重視内需预期改善下的板块修复机会。本周白酒板块上涨 6.85%,市场对内 需预期逐渐改善,白酒作为核心板块有望受益。我们认为,当前仍处于基本面底部 区间,第三季度上市公司营收普遍降速有利于渠道库存消化,前期政策密集出台, 政策传导仍需时间,看好未来上涨空间。白酒板块推荐上建议布局行业龙头,推荐 白酒贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖、山西汾酒、古井贡酒、迎驾贡酒等,弹性标的 布局老白干酒、顺鑫农业、酒鬼酒等。 大众 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit declined in 24Q1-Q3, with revenue at 13.56 billion yuan (-2.91% YoY) and net profit at 3.90 billion yuan (-9.88% YoY) [3] - The decline in revenue is attributed to delayed domestic medical equipment tenders and reduced demand for flat panel detectors [3] - The company's gross margin in 24Q3 decreased by 5.03 percentage points compared to the same period last year, partly due to increased equity incentive expenses [3] - The company's 14.5 billion yuan private placement project has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, aiming to expand production capacity for X-ray core components [3] - The company has mastered multiple core technologies, including non-crystalline silicon, IGZO, CMOS, and flexible substrate sensor technologies, which support its long-term growth [3] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 6.3, 8.3, and 9.7 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28x, 21x, and 18x [3] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue in 2023 was 1,864 million yuan, with a projected slight decline to 1,843 million yuan in 2024, followed by growth to 2,282 million yuan in 2025 and 2,692 million yuan in 2026 [5] - Net profit in 2023 was 607 million yuan, expected to increase to 629 million yuan in 2024, 833 million yuan in 2025, and 965 million yuan in 2026 [5] - Gross margin is projected to decline slightly from 57.8% in 2023 to 55.7% in 2024, 55.0% in 2025, and 54.4% in 2026 [5] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 14.0% in 2023 to 15.5% in 2026 [5] Market and Industry Context - The company operates in the medical/medical device sector, with its main products being flat panel detectors used in medical X-ray machines, industrial non-destructive testing, and security checks [3] - The company is actively developing new markets overseas and strengthening relationships with major clients in the medical and industrial sectors [3] - The company's private placement project is expected to accelerate the localization of X-ray core components and enhance technological self-reliance [3] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 54.48x in 2023 to 18.16x in 2026 [7] - The P/B ratio is expected to decline from 7.66x in 2023 to 2.81x in 2026 [7] - The P/S ratio is forecasted to drop from 17.80x in 2023 to 6.51x in 2026 [7]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 2024 年 11 月 10 日 | --- | --- | |-----------------|-------------------------| | | | | | | | 煤炭 | 煤炭周报:财政政策再加码 | | 优于大市 (维持) | 块布局正当时 | 证券分析师 程堃 资格编号: s0120523050002 郎箱： zhaikun@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢估圆 邮箱: xiejy@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 2024-07 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报：Q3 业绩环比改善, 板块估值存上行空间》, 2024.11.3 2.《永泰能源(600157.SH):电力 业务改善,远期成长可期》, 2024.11.1 3.《甘肃能化(000552.SZ): 量价 下滑拖累业绩，煤电化成长可期》, 2024.11.1 4.《路安环能（601699.SH）: Q3 量增价减,增储夯实成长》, 2024.11.1 5.《陕西煤业(601225.SH): 盈利 维持稳健,煤电成长未来可期》, 2024.10 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2024 年 11 月 10 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------|-------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------| | 宏观点评 | | | | | | | | | | | | 国内需求叠加产业需求, 价格有望进一步趋稳 -2024年10月通胀数据点评 | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | 投资要点: 张浩 资格编号: S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3@tebon.com.cn > 核心观点：10 月份 CPI 同比回落，PPI 同比降幅走阔。CPI 聚焦猪价，PPI 关注 油价、钢价以及黑色系价格。展望四季度,预计 CPI 仍将保持在 0 上方小幅增 长,国内和产业需求带动 PPI 修复,价格有望进一步趋稳。重点关注四个方面: 1）预计四季度猪价温和下跌，找动食品同比项，气温下降叠加二次育肥出栏, 供给过剩向养殖端传导是核心逻辑 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2024 年 11 月 09 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------|-------|-------|----------------------| | | | | | | | 宏观点评 | | | | | | | | | | 三季报下的新质生产力 | | | | | | -新质生产力追踪(二) | | | 证券分析师 | | | | 张浩 资格编号: S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 载,死 邮箱: daikun@tebon.com.cn 相关研究 1.《新质生产力的成色与分化 -- 新质 生产力跟踪系列（一)》，2024.09.08 投资要点: ● 核心观点:三季报显示非金融上市公司盈利进一步磨底,代表新质生成力的战略新 兴产业的业绩同样再度下探。按成长能力、盈利能力、现金质量、研发强废五维度 观察战略新兴产业业绩,我们发现,战略新兴产业(1)业绩增速弱于全 A非金融油, 新一代信息技术产业业绩确定性较强;②ROE 有所下滑,新能源汽车产业、节 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|------------|----------------------------------------------|---------------------| | | | | 2024 年 11 月 09 日 | | | | | | | | | | | | 宏观点评 | | 从万亿化债看 25 年财政展望 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | -2024 年 11月8日人大常委会财政新闻发布会解读 | | | | 证券分析师 | | | 投资要点: 张浩 资格编号: S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 ● 事件: 11月8日下午,十四届全国人大常委会第 12次会议表决通过了全国人大 常委会关于批准《国务院关于提请审议增加地方政府债务限额置换存量隐性债务 的议案》的决议。我们认为,万亿化债的核心目的是跨挪财政空间,更好的调动地 方政府的积极性,一是通过化债跨鄉地方政府财政空间,更好的防风险稳增长,二 是广义财政提升带 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2024 年 11 月 08 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-------|-------------------------------| | | | | | | 宏观点评 | | | 估值效应扰动,汇率短期无忧 | | | | | -2024 年 10月外汇储备数据点评 | | 证券分析师 | | | | 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 陈冠宇 邮箱： chengy@tebon.com.cn 相关研究 投资要点: ● 核心观点: 截止 10 月底，中国外汇储备 32610.50 亿美元，环比减少 553.2 亿美 元。受美债收益率回升和美元升值影响，估值效应或是外储减值的主要原因；10月 美元升值,持币待涨心态恢复或导致结汇需求相对 9 月减少,但集中结汇行为或 仍在延续。向前看,外储方面,预计短期估值因素导致的外储减值可能降低,交易 因素可能导致外储增加;汇率方面,集中结汇或对短期强美元影响产生对冲,对人 民币汇率无需过度担心,当前 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [2] Core Views - The company is a global leader in DDIC (Display Driver IC) wafer foundry, ranking among the top nine globally and third in mainland China. It has a strong position in the LCD panel foundry market and has capabilities in CIS (CMOS Image Sensor), PMIC (Power Management IC), MCU (Microcontroller Unit), and Logic chip foundry [2][16] - The company's revenue in H1 2024 reached 4.398 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 48.09%, with a net profit of 187 million yuan, turning from a loss to a profit. CIS has become the company's second-largest product line, accounting for 16.04% of revenue in H1 2024 [2][16] - The company is expected to benefit from the shift of the LCD industry to mainland China, with the local DDIC industry chain accelerating its development. The company has a dual advantage of being a "scarce foundry target" and being close to the "Chip-Screen-Auto-AI" industrial cluster in Hefei [3][16] - The company is actively expanding its OLED foundry capabilities, with 40nm high-voltage OLED DDIC achieving small-scale production in H1 2024, and 28nm OLED DDIC R&D progressing steadily [4][16] - The company's capacity has been fully utilized since March 2024, with a production line load of around 110% in June 2024. The company plans to expand its capacity by 30,000 to 50,000 wafers per month, focusing on 55nm and 40nm products [5][16] Industry Analysis DDIC Industry - DDIC is a key component of display panels, with applications in LCD and OLED panels. In 2022, large-size DDIC accounted for 69% of the market, while small and medium-size DDIC accounted for 31%, with smartphones making up about 18% of the small and medium-size DDIC market [3][37] - The LCD industry is shifting to mainland China, with Statista predicting that by 2025, mainland China will account for 69% of global LCD panel production capacity. Local DDIC design companies have made breakthroughs in large-size DDIC, with a global market share of 18.9% in Q2 2023 [3][37] - OLED DDIC is expected to become a major growth driver, with global OLED smartphone penetration reaching 51% in 2023. In Q1 2024, Chinese panel manufacturers surpassed South Korea in OLED shipments, accounting for 49.7% of the global market [4][37] CIS Industry - CIS is a core component of camera modules, with applications in smartphones, automotive electronics, and more. The company has a deep collaboration with local CIS manufacturer SmartSens, and in August 2024, they jointly launched a 180-megapixel full-frame CIS chip, pushing the development of full-frame CIS to a new stage [5][16] - In H1 2024, the company achieved mass production of 55nm BSI CIS, with product pixels reaching 50MP. The company plans to expand its CIS production capacity by 30,000 to 50,000 wafers per month, focusing on high-end CIS products [5][16] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 9.476 billion yuan, 12.822 billion yuan, and 15.327 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits of 643 million yuan, 1.321 billion yuan, and 1.719 billion yuan [6][7] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve as more advanced process nodes are released, with a gross margin of 24.43% in H1 2024, up from 21.61% in 2023 [26][27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit. The total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 2.165 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 456 million yuan, up 4.98%. In Q3 alone, revenue was 713 million yuan, reflecting a 20.21% year-on-year increase, and net profit surged by 85.12% to 184 million yuan [4][5] - The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan aimed at retaining and incentivizing core technical personnel, which is expected to enhance long-term competitiveness [5][6] - The company is experiencing a steady improvement in profitability, with gross margins increasing from 32.41% in Q1 to 36.68% in Q3 of 2024, and net margins rising from 18.47% to 25.57% over the same period [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 603 million yuan, with estimates of 689 million yuan and 771 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 26, 22, and 20 times [6][10] - The company's total revenue is forecasted to grow from 2.565 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.913 billion yuan by 2026, indicating a consistent upward trend in sales [10] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 36.2% to 37.6% over the next few years, while the net asset return is projected to increase from 15.5% in 2023 to 18.1% by 2026 [10]