2024年11月24日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------|---------------------------------------|------------| | | | | | | | | | | 美联储降息预期再降温，国内经济再现积极信号 | | | | | | | 2024 年 11月 18 日-11 月 24 日周报 | | | | | | | | 主要数据 | | | | | | | 上证指数 | | 3267.1916 | | 美 ...

2024年11月23日 证券研究报告|策略研究|策略点评 关注新一轮并购重组行情——并购重组系列专题（一） 报告摘要 核心观点： ◆ 新"国九 是新一轮股市改革的集结号,对活跃并购重组市场 出重要部署,此后相关优化政策不断落地,政策导向显著。一级市 场"退出堰塞湖"现象重现,股权投资需要替代的退出路径。历史 上 IPO 和并购重组存在一定跷跷板效应, 近年来 IPO 放缓背景下 近期并购重组事件出现提速,新一轮并购潮或已来临。同时,二级 市场上,并购重组主题投资已逐渐近期市场的投资热点之一,需重 视新一轮并购重组投资机遇。 ◆ 上一轮并购潮为 2013 年-2016 年，与当下具有较多相似的因素，对 本轮并购潮具有较高参考价值。监管放松周期是并购潮的关键因 素,IPO 受阻为并购潮的催化。2012年,在 A 股持续低迷 IPO 节 奏放缓，同样出现了"IPO 堰塞湖"，并购重组表现活跃。2014 年,证监会对《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》作出修订,简化 了审核的程序。2016年,随着并购重组政策收紧,并购重组行情也 随之告一段落,验证了监管周期是并购潮的关键因素。 宏观层面,2013年-2016年并购潮与当 ...

2024年11月23日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 农林牧渔 农业周观点：猪价偏弱运行，腌腊逐步开启 报告摘要 ◆ 本期行情（11.16-11.22） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------| | | | | | | | | | 辉隆股份 | 大禹生物 | 驱动力 | 福建金森 | 田野股份 | | 涨幅前五 | 13. 6% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 6. 4% | 6. 3% | | | 祖名殷份 | 绿康生化 | 中宠股份 | 巨星农牧 | 佩蒂股份 | | 跌幅前五 | -13. 3% | -10. 4% | -8. 9% | −8. 2% | -7.8% | | | | | | | | 申万农林牧渔行业(-2.76%)，申万行业排名（24/31)； 上证指数 (-1.91%)，沪深 300 (-2.60%), 中小 100 (-3.26%); ◆ 简要回顾观点 行业周观点：《10月社零增速回升，宠物双11亮眼》《猪价景气 ...

2024年11月23日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 社会服务行业·周观点 投资评级 增持 从"互联网+"到"AI+"，乌镇峰会见证产业变革趋势 维持评级 ◆ 本周行情:社会服务(申万)板块指数周涨跌幅为-5.24%,在申万 一级行业涨跌幅中排名31/31。 � 各基准指数周涨跌幅情况为：上证指数（-1.91%）、沪深300（- 2.60%）、深证成指（-2.89%）、创业板指（-3.03%）、社会服务 (-5.24%)。 � � 子行业涨跌幅排名：教育（-5.91%）、酒店餐饮（-4.44%）、旅游 及景区（-4.01%）、体育Ⅱ（-2.74%）、专业服务（-1.12%）。 个股涨跌幅排名前五: 国缆检测 (23.15%) 、谱尼测试 (21.18%) 、 国检集团 (15.68%) 、勤上股份 (14.09%) 、传智教育 (6.00%) 。 � 个股涨跌幅排名后五：豆神教育(-22.99%)、凯文教育(-15.04%)、 中公教育(-13.18%)、科德教育(-12.55%)、科锐国际(-11.56%)。 核心观点: � 2024年世界互联网大会乌镇峰会如期举行，在乌镇峰会场馆内外, 无人驾驶汽车、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense industry [3]. Core Views - The defense industry is experiencing a cyclical adjustment, with the National Defense and Military Industry Index declining by 2.79% this week, ranking 25th out of 31 industries. Despite this, trading volume remains high at 242.545 billion yuan, indicating sustained interest in the sector [1][50]. - The report emphasizes confidence in the medium to long-term prospects of the military industry, suggesting a "two steps forward, one step back" trend, with potential volatility in short-term high-flying sectors and stocks [1][8]. - Key themes such as low-altitude economy and nuclear fusion are highlighted as active areas, with financing balances at historical highs contributing to market fluctuations [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The National Defense and Military Industry Index decreased by 2.79% this week, with significant fluctuations in individual stocks, including a notable increase in some stocks like Sichuan Jiuzhou (+60.99%) and declines in others like Fujida (-11.94%) [50]. Important Events and Announcements - The report notes the successful conclusion of the 15th China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition, which resulted in approximately 285.6 billion yuan in signed cooperation agreements [51]. Low Altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is projected to become a major investment theme for 2024, with the market size expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026, driven by supportive policies and infrastructure development [64][65]. - The report identifies the low-altitude economy as a new growth area, emphasizing the importance of developing related technologies and infrastructure to support this sector [66]. Anti-Drone Systems - The report discusses the growing need for anti-drone systems as a critical component of low-altitude economic security, highlighting the increasing threats posed by drones in both military and civilian contexts [73][74]. - It emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the anti-drone market, driven by rising demand for security solutions in response to drone-related incidents [89]. Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is recognized as a new engine for productivity, with significant advancements in both rocket and satellite technologies. The report notes that private rocket companies have achieved record launches in 2023, indicating a turning point for the industry [90][99]. - The report outlines the collaborative progress between rocket and satellite sectors, suggesting a deepening integration of manufacturing and application [98]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in unmanned equipment, satellite internet, electronic countermeasures, and the broader "big military" sectors, which include civil-military integration areas [22][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [40]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated significant revenue growth, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% from HKD 1.6 billion at its IPO in 2002 to HKD 73.9 billion in 2023, ranking it first in the industry for growth [9][10]. - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached HKD 40.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.83%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9.71% to HKD 0.453 billion [9]. - The company is actively expanding its cloud computing and digital transformation services, with a focus on integrating its cloud management platform, RightCloud, which has enhanced its overall value [16][27]. - The company has established strong partnerships with major cloud service providers, including Alibaba Cloud and Huawei Cloud, and has seen substantial growth in its AI and cloud computing segments [16][17]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth and Market Position - The company ranks eighth in the global IT distribution market and serves over 80% of leading tech firms and emerging unicorns [9]. - The Southeast Asian market has shown robust growth, with revenue increasing by 60.8% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the overall revenue [9]. Cloud Computing and Digital Transformation - The cloud computing segment has seen a revenue increase of 29.25% in the first half of 2024, with projected growth rates of 27%, 25%, and 24% for the years 2024 to 2026 [27][30]. - The company has developed a comprehensive cloud ecosystem, including multi-cloud management and AI-driven solutions, which are critical for its future growth [16][26]. Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are HKD 82.56 billion, HKD 92.42 billion, and HKD 102.58 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 1.03 billion, HKD 1.12 billion, and HKD 1.27 billion [22][30]. - The company anticipates maintaining a strong growth trajectory, supported by its strategic initiatives in the cloud and AI sectors [22][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected PE ratios of 9/8/7 for 2024-2026 [7] Core Views - The company's clean energy segment is the primary driver of revenue growth, accounting for 70.1% of total revenue in Q1-Q3 2024 [1] - The company's overseas revenue grew by 52% YoY in the clean energy segment, outpacing domestic growth [2] - The company's total revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 17.97 billion yuan, up 8% YoY, with Q3 revenue increasing by 10.4% YoY [1] - The company's new orders for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 20.76 billion yuan, up 5.1% YoY, with clean energy orders growing by 22.1% [1] Clean Energy Segment - The clean energy segment generated 12.6 billion yuan in revenue for Q1-Q3 2024, up 26.2% YoY, with Q3 revenue increasing by 28% YoY [2] - New orders for the clean energy segment reached 16.16 billion yuan, up 22.1% YoY, with transportation equipment orders growing by 49.3% [2] - The waterborne clean energy segment saw revenue growth of 58% YoY, with new orders increasing by 57.9% [2] - The hydrogen energy segment secured new orders worth 660 million yuan, up 13.3% YoY, despite a 23.7% decline in backlog orders [2] Chemical Environment Segment - The chemical environment segment revenue declined by 39.9% YoY in Q1-Q3 2024, with Q3 revenue down 25% YoY but up 21.5% QoQ [3] - New orders for the chemical environment segment fell by 25.6% YoY, with backlog orders down 22.9% [3] Liquid Food Segment - The liquid food segment revenue grew by 5.5% YoY in Q1-Q3 2024, but Q3 revenue declined by 12.9% YoY due to delayed deliveries [7] - New orders for the liquid food segment fell by 32.9% YoY, with backlog orders down 13.6% [7] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 27.07 billion yuan in 2024 to 35.43 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.57% [8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.36 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.81 billion yuan in 2026 [8] - The company's ROE is forecasted to improve from 11.29% in 2024 to 12.73% in 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry growth level is expected to exceed the performance of the CSI 300 index in the next six months [4][263]. Core Insights - Military data links are essential for operational data transmission, acting as the nervous system of weapon systems and the foundation for joint operations in future information warfare [1][2]. - The demand for military data links is expected to grow significantly as the military transitions from focusing on hard power to soft power, benefiting from the integration of new combat equipment and increased penetration of existing equipment [2][8]. - The data link industry is characterized by a stable gross margin due to its multi-specification and small-batch production nature, with a strong demand for encryption services in the aftermarket [8][206]. Summary by Sections Data Link Overview - Military data links are defined as communication systems that connect various weapon systems or command systems, ensuring efficient data transmission for combat operations [66][68]. - The necessity of data links is highlighted by their role in transforming traditional hierarchical communication structures into network-centric operations, enhancing information sharing and situational awareness [74][86]. Data Link Demand Characteristics - Tactical data links are primarily used for command and control, with a focus on standardization and interoperability among different military branches [139][142]. - General data links address the limitations of tactical data links in terms of data capacity, enabling high-speed transmission of intelligence and control signals for unmanned systems [173][176]. - Specialized data links cater to specific weapon platforms, with a focus on existing systems' retrofitting needs [198][200]. Industry Structure and Competitive Landscape - The data link industry is composed of tactical data link systems, encryption devices, terminal equipment, and transceiver devices, with terminal equipment holding a core position [8][206]. - The industry is predominantly led by military enterprises, with limited participation from private companies, focusing on differentiated competition within their respective fields [213][219]. - Key players in the data link market include major military contractors such as Raytheon and L3 Harris, which dominate the market share [219][226]. Related Listed Companies - Key companies involved in the data link industry include: - **Transceiver Segment**: Guobo Electronics, New Jingang, and Leidian Micro [9][212]. - **Encryption Segment**: Jiayuan Technology and Electric Science Network Security [9][212]. - **System-Level Suppliers**: Qiyi Er, Haige Communication, and Shanghai Hanhui [9][212].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" indicating an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [26]. Core Insights - The company, Aishuxin Co., Ltd. (爱旭股份), is focusing on the production of ABC components, which are expected to see significant volume growth and enjoy premium pricing due to their superior performance [1]. - The company reported total revenue of 7.896 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 65.09%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.831 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 250% [1]. - The ABC components have achieved a mass production efficiency of 24.2%, maintaining a leading position in the market for 18 months [1]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with significant investments in new facilities, including a 10GW N-type ABC component capacity in Zhuhai and a 15GW capacity in Yiwu [1]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.734 billion yuan, down 57.06% year-on-year, with a net profit of -1.086 billion yuan, a decline of 287.78% [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was -19.35%, and the net margin was -40.45% [1]. Product Development - The company is advancing its technology with the N-type ABC components, achieving a conversion efficiency of 27.3% and a yield rate of 97.5% as of June 2024 [1]. - The N-type ABC components are expected to have a significant market premium, with overseas markets achieving a premium of 30%-40% in the residential sector and over 10% in centralized power station scenarios [1]. Market Position - The company has established sales channels in over 30 countries, becoming a leading brand in the European market [1]. - The N-type ABC components are gaining recognition in the domestic market, achieving a sales premium of 0.08-0.12 yuan/W in the distributed market [1]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of -2.161 billion yuan, 1.055 billion yuan, and 1.803 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of -12, 24, and 14 [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guobo Electronics (688375) is "Buy" with a target price of 70.00 CNY, indicating an expected return of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [1][6][29]. Core Insights - Guobo Electronics is a leading enterprise in T/R component production, primarily serving the military electronics sector, with a significant focus on active phased array T/R components and RF integrated circuits [1][6]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.814 billion CNY for Q1-Q3 2024, a decrease of 35.83% year-on-year, and a net profit of 306 million CNY, down 31.93% year-on-year. However, the gross margin improved to 36.39%, up 4.14 percentage points [1][5]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the industry, with expectations for revenue growth in the coming years, projecting revenues of 2.827 billion CNY, 3.316 billion CNY, and 3.958 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][12]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 511 million CNY, a year-on-year decline of 43.51%, and a net profit of 62 million CNY, down 56.28% year-on-year. The gross margin reached a historical high of 39.58% [1][5]. - The company's operating cash flow turned positive with a net cash flow of 147 million CNY, primarily due to increased cash receipts from maturing notes [5][6]. - The report highlights a slight increase in operating expenses, with sales expenses decreasing by 1.30% to 7 million CNY, while management expenses rose by 4.27% to 97 million CNY [5][6]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Guobo Electronics is positioned to benefit from its backing by China Electronics Technology Group Corporation and is the only listed platform under its subsidiary, which enhances its market competitiveness [1][6]. - The company has successfully delivered products in the low-altitude sensing and satellite communication sectors, indicating a diversification of its revenue streams [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the low-altitude RF modules and chips, as well as in the low-orbit satellite and commercial aerospace markets, which are expected to accelerate in the coming years [6][12].