2025年03月09日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观点评 今年拟发行超长期特别国债 1.3 万亿元、比去年增加 3000 亿元。拟发行特别国债 5000亿元,支持国有大型商业银行补充资本。拟安排地方政府专项债券 4.4万亿元、比 上年增加 5000 亿元。今年特别国债和地方专项债合计达 6.2 万亿元，明显高于去年合 计值的 4.9 万亿元。考虑到去年 11 月 8 月财政部提出的"6+4+2"化债方案发力，预计 化债压力大为减轻的地方政府将在"轻装上阵"的利好下增加有效财政支出强度，今年 广义财政口径下的支出效率也将提升,财政政策对内需的支撑值得期待。 货币政策方面,政府工作报告提出的"实施适度宽松的货币政策"、"社会融资规模、 货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配"等关键表述与去年底的中央 经济工作会议基本一致。 本次政府工作报告提出的实施"适度宽松"的货币政策,是对去年中央经济工作会 议对货币政策最新定调的再次明确。去年年末以来,市场对货币政策转向宽松反应明显, 十年期国债收益率自去年 11 月底的 2.02%一路震荡下行至当前的 1.71%。在市场提前 计价央行货币政策更加宽松的同时,自 ...

2025年03月09日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观点评 今年拟发行超长期特别国债 1.3 万亿元、比去年增加 3000 亿元。拟发行特别国债 5000亿元,支持国有大型商业银行补充资本。拟安排地方政府专项债券 4.4万亿元、比 上年增加 5000 亿元。今年特别国债和地方专项债合计达 6.2 万亿元,明显高于去年合 计值的 4.9 万亿元。考虑到去年 11 月 8 月财政部提出的"6+4+2"化债方案发力，预计 化债压力大为减轻的地方政府将在"轻装上阵"的利好下增加有效财政支出强度，今年 广义财政口径下的支出效率也将提升，财政政策对内需的支撑值得期待。 货币政策方面,政府工作报告提出的"实施适度宽松的货币政策"、"社会融资规模、 货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配"等关键表述与去年底的中央 经济工作会议基本一致。 本次政府工作报告提出的实施"适度宽松"的货币政策,是对去年中央经济工作会 议对货币政策最新定调的再次明确。去年年末以来,市场对货币政策转向宽松反应明显, 十年期国债收益率自去年 11 月底的 2.02%一路震荡下行至当前的 1.71%。在市场提前 计价央行货币政策更加宽松的同时,自 ...

2025年03月09日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 投资评级 本期（2025.3.3-2025.3.7）非银（申万）指数+1.24%，行业排 17/31, 券商Ⅱ指 数+0.73%,保险II指数+1.72%; 上证综指+1.56%，深证成指+2.19%，创业板指+1.61%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：海南华铁（+28.43%）、新力金融（+10.38%）、中航 产融（+8.80%）、国泰君安（+5.89%）、九坤投资（+5.88%）; 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：国盛金控（-5.14%）、海德股份（-3.12%）、建元信托 (-2.93%）、浙江东方（-2.34%）、中国银河（-2.22%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 增持 非银行业周报（2025 年第八期） : 中长期资金入市空间逐步打开,建议关注券商投资 机会 市场表现: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 0.73%,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.66pct,跑输上证综 指数 0.83pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.51 倍，位于 2020 年 50 分位点附近。 本周,3月6日,证监会主席吴清在十四届全国人大三次会议 ...

3 ➢ CONTENTS ➢ 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024Q3 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024年Q3 4 ➢ 1723 1523 1465 1202 1062 956 901 954 4990 5085 5503 5222 5429 5119 5175 5258 3756 4064 4412 4862 5806 6536 6980 7153 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 50% 32% 18% 5 ➢ 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 0.00 5.00 10.00 15 ...

2025年03月10日 证券研究报告|公司研究|公司点评 天融信（002212） 投资评级 智算一体机喜获权威认证,云计算业务迎来市场增量 报告摘要 事件：近日，公司自主研发的天问智算云平台系统，首批通过中国软件评测中心（工业 和信息化部软件与集成电路促进中心）的大模型一体机能力验证。天融信安全智算一体 机搭载天间智算云平台软件,在可靠性、稳定性、安全性与有效性四大维度均达技术标 准。 天融信 DeepSeek 安全智算一体机首批通过中国软件评测中心能力验证 � 天融信 DeepSeek 安全智算一体机以"算力硬件平台+智算平台"为基座,集成 DeepSeek 大模型,融合"计算、存储、网络、安全、智能"五大能力,可以为客户提 供高性能、安全可靠的一体化智算中心建设方案。产品深度融合并完成与 DeepSeek 各 种版本及尺寸模型的整合测试，预装了 DeepSeek-R1 版本各种尺寸的模型。客户只需 根据业务需求选择对应的模型版本及大小即可实现开箱即用,操作简单快捷。此外,产 品还深度融合天问大模型,通过智能算法实时监测数据流向和模型运行状态,实现安全 "识别-保护-检测-响应-恢复"的可持续迭代,为 De ...

2025年03月09日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 非银行业周报（2025 年第八期）： 本期（2025.3.3-2025.3.7）非银（申万）指数+1.24%，行业排 17/31，券商 II指 数+0.73%,保险II指数+1.72%; 上证综指+1.56%，深证成指+2.19%，创业板指+1.61%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：海南华铁（+28.43%）、新力金融（+10.38%）、中航 产融（+8.80%）、国泰君安（+5.89%）、九坤投资（+5.88%）； 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：国盛金控（-5.14%）、海德股份（-3.12%）、建元信托 (-2.93%）、浙江东方（-2.34%）、中国银河（-2.22%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 0.73%,跑输沪深 300指数 0.66pct,跑输上证综 指数 0.83pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.51 倍，位于 2020 年 50 分位点附近。 本周,3月6日,证监会主席吴清在十四届全国人大三次会议经济主题记者会上表 示,逐项打通社保、保险、理财等中长期资金入市卡点堵点,不断引入 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company has successfully developed the Tianjian Intelligent Computing Cloud Platform, which has passed authoritative certification, indicating strong market potential for its cloud computing business [1][2]. - The DeepSeek security intelligent computing integrated machine integrates various capabilities and is designed to meet the growing demand for AI privatization deployment in the domestic market [3][7]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in cybersecurity demand and the rapid growth of the AI privatization deployment market, with projected revenues of 2.805 billion, 3.091 billion, and 3.417 billion yuan for 2024 to 2026 respectively [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tianrongxin's DeepSeek security intelligent computing integrated machine combines computing hardware and intelligent computing platforms, providing a high-performance, secure, and reliable solution for clients [2]. - The company has seen steady growth in its cloud computing business since launching its products in 2019, with revenue growth rates of +12.17% for 2023 and +9.98% for the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. Market Potential - The overall scale of China's intelligent computing service market is projected to reach 5 billion USD in 2024 and 7.95 billion USD in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 57.3% from 2023 to 2028 [7]. - The demand for integrated machines has surged as enterprises shift towards private deployment of AI, ensuring data security and privacy [3][7]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 2.804 billion yuan in 2024, 3.091 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.417 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 0.685 billion, 1.794 billion, and 2.419 billion yuan [10][8]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 157X, 60X, and 45X respectively [8].

Core Insights - The report highlights a new round of "East Rising, West Falling" trading narrative, driven by the expectation of a U.S. recession and China's leading position in the AI revolution [3][10][13] - The government work report for 2025 indicates a proactive macroeconomic policy, with a target deficit rate set at a historical high of around 4%, which is expected to boost market sentiment and investment structure [8][9][10] - The report anticipates that the valuation of Chinese technology stocks will undergo a significant reshaping, with domestic consumption and AI autonomy becoming the mid-term market focus [10][13] Market Overview - As of March 5, 2025, the overall market showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.56% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.61% [7] - The report notes a decline in market activity, with the average daily trading volume dropping to 17,009.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,906.41 billion yuan from the previous week [7] - The overall A-share market's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 19.06, reflecting a 1.63% increase from the previous week [7] Economic Projections - The government aims for a GDP growth of around 5% and a CPI increase of about 2% for 2025, indicating a commitment to economic stability and growth [8][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and developing new productive forces, aligning with the central economic work conference's objectives [10] Investment Trends - The report indicates a divergence in domestic capital flows, with financing and ETF funds showing opposite trends since the beginning of the year, suggesting a cautious approach among investors [14][15] - Historical data suggests a strong correlation between the annual broad deficit rate and the government's initial deficit target, indicating that fiscal expansion could positively impact economic growth and the stock market [9][10] Sector Focus - The report identifies sectors such as consumer goods, technology, and defense as potential areas for investment, particularly in light of the government's focus on consumption and technological self-reliance [10][13] - The report also notes that the Hang Seng Technology Index remains a point of interest for investors, reflecting ongoing trends in the technology sector [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index in the next six months [60]. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of food security and the need for China to reduce its reliance on U.S. agricultural products, particularly in the context of trade tensions. The import share of soybeans has decreased from around 30% to 21%-24% over the past two years [3]. - The report suggests focusing on opportunities in the planting and seed industry due to rising domestic agricultural prices and an increased preference for food security [3]. - In the livestock sector, January saw a decrease in pig sales, with a total of 7.6347 million pigs sold, a month-on-month decline of 4.32%. The average price of pigs increased slightly, with a year-on-year increase of 10.58% [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential recovery of the animal health industry alongside improved livestock operations, driven by historical trends where higher profits in the livestock sector correlate with increased sales in animal health products [6]. - The planting sector is advised to pay attention to global food supply and demand dynamics, with adjustments in forecasts for wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans for the 2024/25 season [7][8][9][10]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry - In January, the average price of pigs was 15.78 CNY/kg, with a month-on-month increase of 0.45% and a year-on-year increase of 10.58% [4]. - The report recommends focusing on leading livestock companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, which have growth potential and optimized breeding expansion [5]. - The animal health sector is expected to benefit from the recovery in livestock profitability, with a focus on leading companies like China Animal Husbandry and Biocontainment [6]. Planting Industry - The report indicates a need to monitor global food supply and demand due to geopolitical disturbances, with adjustments in production forecasts for major crops [7][8][9][10]. - The seed industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, with ongoing policies aimed at revitalizing the sector and promoting the commercialization of biotechnology [10]. Pet Industry - The report expresses optimism for domestic pet food companies, projecting significant growth in the pet food market driven by changing consumer preferences [11]. - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which are positioned to benefit from the growing market [12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential of humanoid robots in driving industrial applications, particularly through companies like UBTECH and Zhiyuan Robotics, which are expected to catalyze growth in the sector [4][6][9]. - The humanoid robot industry is entering a critical breakthrough phase, with a projected global demand of approximately 2 million units by 2030 [4][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support for the development of intelligent robots and related technologies, as outlined in the 2025 State Council Work Report [12]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include Beite Technology, Zhaowei Electromechanical, Hengli Hydraulic, and others [4]. - The report suggests closely tracking companies involved in humanoid robotics, automation, and energy storage sectors [5][15]. Industry Trends - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid advancements, with significant developments in collaborative training and operational capabilities [6][9]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector is seeing increased penetration of N-type technology, enhancing the competitiveness of leading firms [15]. - Energy storage is gaining momentum due to favorable policies and market conditions, with a focus on battery and inverter companies [15]. Market Projections - The semiconductor equipment market is expected to reach $140 billion by 2030, with a growing share from domestic manufacturers [15][17]. - The automation market is projected to grow from approximately 40 billion to 55.7 billion by 2026, driven by increased concentration and domestic substitution [17]. - The hydrogen energy sector is anticipated to benefit from the rapid development of renewable energy sources, with a focus on companies integrated into the green hydrogen supply chain [15][17].