[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 02 月 20 日 证券研究报告•策略专题报告 策略专题 论黄金定价框架的迭代—— 债务发散的宏大叙事与黄金重估账户 GRA 的轶闻 旧框架的羁绊：实际利率框架在过去二十年（2000-2022）对黄金定价起到了 重要作用，但 2022 年后该框架失效，导致投资者面临巨大损失。通过回归分 析发现，美元名义汇率和美国实际利率可以解释 86%的黄金波动，但在 2022 年后，模型与现实严重偏离。 在降息周期内，降息预期对黄金价格的影响重新显现，但这种关系并非持续稳 定，仅在特定时期（如 2018-2019、2023-2024）较为显著。2024年后，降息 预期与黄金价格再次背离，表明需要寻找新的影响因子。 全球信用货币体系松动的迹象：美国债务发散风险指标（DDRI）显示，美债利 率与黄金价格呈正相关，反映了黄金中枢抬升的内在逻辑。全球央行购金量与 债务发散风险指数呈正相关，表明债务风险上升时，黄金作为避险资产的需求 增加。 2023 年后，黄金与日本加息预期由负相关变为正相关，表明日本货币政策正常 化对黄金价格产生助推作用。欧元区核心国家财政风险暴露，如法国债务杠 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the AI healthcare industry Core Insights - The emergence of DeepSeek and its technology marks a new phase in AI healthcare, emphasizing the integration of AI into various medical applications, including diagnostics and drug development [3] - The report identifies six core application areas for AI in healthcare: medical imaging diagnostics, genetic sequencing, clinical decision support systems (CDSS), drug development, health management, and surgical robotics [3][4] - The AI healthcare market is projected to grow significantly, with a global market size expected to reach $70 billion by 2032, driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% [28] Summary by Sections AI Medical Imaging Diagnostics - AI medical imaging products are widely used in various medical departments, including ultrasound, radiology, and pathology, with a focus on disease screening and diagnostic assistance [39] - The market for coronary and head and neck applications is promising, while breast and liver applications are still in the development phase [39][40] AI Genetic Sequencing - AI enhances genetic sequencing for rare diseases, optimizing data analysis and reducing costs, although commercialization is progressing slowly [3][8] AI Medical Information Systems (CDSS) - AI systems improve electronic medical record quality control and clinical decision-making processes, with a relatively fast commercialization pace [3][9] AI Drug Development - AI significantly shortens drug development cycles, with traditional timelines of 10 years and $1 billion reduced by 70% in design time and a tenfold increase in success rates [30] - The report highlights the increasing number of industry players and applications across various disease areas, including oncology and immunology [3][30] AI Health Management - AI systems provide personalized health management solutions, transitioning from passive treatment to proactive intervention, although data sharing remains a challenge [3][9] AI Surgical Robotics - The integration of AI with surgical robotics is emphasized, with companies like MicroPort and Tianzhihang leading the way [3][10] Policy Support - The report discusses the supportive policy environment for AI in healthcare, including the release of guidelines that outline 84 application scenarios for AI technology in the medical field [28][27]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the banking industry, suggesting a stable and improving environment for investments [1]. Core Insights - The banking sector showed a strong start in 2025, with a significant increase in credit issuance, indicating robust demand and a positive economic signal [6][68]. - The overall performance of the A-share banking sector was weaker compared to the broader market, with a 3.06% increase, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.73 percentage points [17][20]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring macroeconomic policies and their impact on the banking sector, especially with the upcoming national meetings [6][64]. Summary by Sections 1. Banking Sector Performance - The A-share banking sector's performance from January 16 to February 15, 2025, was 3.06%, underperforming the CSI 300's 3.79% and the overall A-share market's 6.35% [17][18]. - Among the banking sub-sectors, state-owned banks performed the best with a 3.54% increase, while joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks had increases of 2.61%, 1.09%, and 1.19%, respectively [20][21]. 2. Key Financial Metrics - As of February 14, 2025, the banking sector's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 5.87, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio was 0.61, both near the historical average [25][32]. - The banking sector's dividend yield was reported at 5.82%, indicating a strong return for investors [29][30]. 3. Individual Stock Performance - During the analysis period, 29 out of 42 banking stocks increased in value, with Changsha Bank leading at a 7.68% increase, while CITIC Bank had the largest decline at -4.15% [34][39]. - The top five performing stocks included Changsha Bank, Qilu Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, while the bottom five included CITIC Bank and Suzhou Bank [34][39]. 4. Market Trends and Fund Flows - Post-Spring Festival, market liquidity improved significantly, with average daily trading volume rising to 17,012.11 billion yuan, reflecting increased investor confidence [46][48]. - The report notes a slight decrease in the proportion of active equity funds invested in the banking sector, although it remains relatively high compared to other sectors [51][52]. 5. Economic Indicators - In January 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 5.13 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations and indicating strong credit demand [6][68]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued growth in medium to long-term loans, particularly if the real estate market stabilizes [6][64].

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 02 月 17 日 证券研究报告•行业研究•银行 银行业投资月报（0116-0215） 信贷"开门红"势头强劲，银行业整体稳中向好 投资要点 西南证券研究院 [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 数据来源：聚源数据 -7% -1% 5% 12% 18% 25% 24/2 24/4 24/6 24/8 24/10 24/12 25/2 银行 沪深300 | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [股票家数 Table_BaseData] | 42 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 135076.69 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 92781.25 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 5.87 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 11.98 | 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 行情回顾： [Table_Summary 2025/1/16 ] -2025/2/15期间，A 股银行板块整体表现较弱：A 股银行 板块区间涨幅为 3.06%，跑输沪深 300 约 0.73个百分点（沪深 300区间涨幅 为 3.79%）；跑输全部 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Aima Technology (603529) with a target price of 50.76 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 41.47 CNY [1]. Core Views - Aima Technology is positioned as a leader in the electric two-wheeler market, with a clear growth trajectory anticipated due to favorable industry policies and market dynamics. The implementation of new national standards and trade-in policies in 2025 is expected to drive significant sales growth in the industry, with an estimated 574.83 million units sold, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [6]. - The company is expanding its product offerings into high-margin leisure tricycles, which currently have a low penetration rate of 4.3% among target demographics, indicating substantial growth potential [6]. - Aima is also strategically entering overseas markets, particularly in Indonesia and Vietnam, where there is a trend of transitioning from gasoline to electric vehicles, thus opening new avenues for long-term growth [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Aima Technology, established in 1999, has evolved through multiple transformation phases, from trade to manufacturing and now to a technology-driven company focused on smart solutions for green transportation. The company has a robust manufacturing base across several provinces in China and aims to provide comprehensive mobility solutions [17][19]. Industry Analysis - The electric two-wheeler market is characterized by strong demand driven by urbanization and the need for convenient short-distance transportation. The market is expected to grow significantly, with electric bicycles making up 88% of the total two-wheeler sales in China [25][28]. - The industry is moving towards higher quality standards, with the new national standards set to enhance safety and performance, thereby increasing the overall market quality and concentration [36][47]. Financial Analysis - Aima's revenue is projected to grow from 210.36 billion CNY in 2023 to 311.99 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% expected for net profit from 2024 to 2026 [2][6]. - The company's net profit margin is anticipated to improve, supported by the expansion of high-margin products and increased market share in both domestic and international markets [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts a net profit of 24.28 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.59%. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 19 in 2023 to 12 by 2026, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 50.76 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 41.47 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the electric two-wheeler market, with a clear growth trajectory expected due to favorable policies and market conditions. The implementation of new national standards and trade-in policies in 2025 is anticipated to drive significant sales growth in the industry [6][17]. - The company is expected to benefit from a projected industry sales increase to 57.48 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% [6]. - The company is expanding its product offerings into high-margin leisure tricycles, which currently have a low penetration rate of 4.3% among target demographics, indicating substantial growth potential [6]. - The company is also strategically entering overseas markets, particularly in Indonesia and Vietnam, where there is a trend of transitioning from gasoline to electric vehicles, thus opening new growth avenues [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been a pioneer in the electric two-wheeler industry since its establishment in 1999, transitioning through various phases of development and focusing on digital transformation and international expansion [17][19]. Industry Analysis - The electric two-wheeler market is characterized by strong demand driven by urbanization and the need for convenient short-distance transportation. The market is expected to grow significantly due to new regulations and policies promoting electric vehicles [25][28]. - The industry is moving towards higher quality standards, with the new national standards set to enhance safety and performance requirements for electric bicycles [47][48]. Financial Analysis - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 210.36 billion CNY in 2023 to 311.99 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.2% expected for net profit from 2024 to 2026 [2][6]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to remain strong, with a slight decline from 24.37% in 2023 to 21.47% by 2026, reflecting ongoing profitability despite increased competition [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report anticipates a significant increase in the company's electric two-wheeler sales, reaching 11.497 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [6]. - The company is valued at 18 times its earnings for 2025, supporting the target price of 50.76 CNY [6].

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 02 月 17 日 证券研究报告•策略研究 大类资产观察 大类资产交易逻辑观察：海外复苏的幻象 点评 西南证券研究发展中心 图 1：近期美国制造业景气度修复 图 2：全球信贷脉冲周期和工业品指数 [Table_Author] 分析师：程睿智 执业证号：S1250524050004 电话：18301668853 邮箱：chengzuoz@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 1 [Table_Summary] 全球顶着关税冲击后迎来风险偏好抬升期。A 股、有色、黄金等重拾信心，市 场风险偏好有所抬升；整体氛围与 24 年 Q2 有些许类似：2 月比特币开始拉 升，3 月初黄金开始拉升，3 月末有色开始拉升，4 月外资开始唱多中国带动 A\H 股上冲；当时的叙事是全球共振复苏。 重新审视一下当前与 24 年 Q2 的宏观环境，全球信贷脉冲在 24Q2 冲顶，全 球制造业在 24年 6月见顶快速回落，而当前处于下行的底部区间；美国经济 数据依然无功无过，仍然尽力维持在一个精妙的均衡状态，制造业情绪受到川 普上台带来的不确定性落地以及管制 ...

202X`[Table_ReportInfo] 5 年 02 月 16 日 证券研究报告•市场周评 北交所双周报（2.5-2.14） 开年来北证 50 指数涨 16.3%，北交所业绩快报接连出炉 数据来源：同花顺 iFind | 基础数据（ [Table_QuotePic] 2.5-2.14） | | | --- | --- | | 成分股个数 | 264 | | 总市值（亿元） | 6501.09 | | 公司平均市值（亿元） | 24.63 | | 板块区间交易金额（亿元） | 2335.61 | | 平均周交易金额（亿元） | 8.85 | | 区间换手率（%） | 69.55 | 相关研究 摘要 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：刘言 执业证号：S1250515070002 电话：023-67791663 邮箱：liuyan@swsc.com.cn 联系人：李艾莼 电话：17396222897 邮箱：liac@swsc.com.cn [板块相对指数表现 Table_QuotePic] -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 24-02 24-03 24-04 ...

| 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [Table_BaseData] 股票家数 | 369 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 48,361.08 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 43,696.89 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 31.2 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 12.7 | [Table_Author] 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 -17% -8% 0% 9% 18% 26% 24/2 24/4 24/6 24/8 24/10 24/12 25/2 医药生物 沪深300 数据来源：聚源数据 [Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 02 月 15 日 证券研究报告•行业研究•医药生物 医药行业周报（2.10-2.14） AI 医疗主题投资持续发酵 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_Summary] 行情回顾：本周医药生物指数上涨 2.71%，跑赢沪深 300 ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2025 年 02 月 16 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（0210-0216） 宇树人形机器人京东首发，Figure 即将迎来重大更新 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Author] 分析师：邰桂龙 执业证号：S1250521050002 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：tgl@swsc.com.cn 分析师：周鑫雨 执业证号：S1250523070008 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：zxyu@swsc.com.cn 联系人：叶明辉 电话：13909990246 邮箱：ymh@swsc.com.cn | 基础数据 | | | --- | --- | | [Table_BaseData] 股票家数 | 440 | | 行业总市值（亿元） | 35,776.68 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 34,807.27 | | 行业市盈率 TTM | 32.6 | | 沪深 300 市盈率 TTM | 12.7 | 相关研究 [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 ...