行业点评报告 · 钢铁行业 供需格局改善,政策催化预期溶 2026 年 02 月 27 日 核心观点 钢铁行业 | | | 分析师 ☎: 0755-8347-9312 网: hongye_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523060002 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026 年 02 月 27 日 400/ 20% 资料来源:Wind. 相关研究 1.【银河钢铁】行业点评报告_钢铁行业 2025 年业 绩预告:盈利改善趋势渐显,"十五五"开局产能加 速出清 20260131 赵良毕 ☎: 010-8092-7619 区: zhaoliangbi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030003 开标 2. 【银河钢铁】行业点评:行业盈利修复提速,龙头 优势凸显 3. 【银河钢铁】行业周报_碳市场配额方案印发,钢 铁供给侧有望收缩 www.chinastock.com.cn 洪烨,通信&钢铁组分析师。中国人民大学财务硕士,曾供职于国泰君安证券,2023年加入中国银河证券。 免责声明 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公 ...

宏观动态报告 6.85 能守住吗？ 2026 年 2 月 27 日 人民币的点阵图：短期人民币汇率有望保持在合理均衡水平上的基本稳 定。根据我们的人民币汇率短期框架——人民币汇率的点阵图，我们认为短期 人民币汇率将处于第一象限，人民币的升值速率将有所减缓，呈现稳健升值。 一方面人民币的结汇需求从 3 月起将季节性走弱，二季度中概股将进入分红 期带来集中购汇，从外汇供求关系来看并不是有利于升值的方向；另一方面汇 率政策已启动逆周期 调节， 如果进 一步过 于剧烈 的波 动 可能会 引发其 他汇率 调节工具的推出。当下人民币汇率来到 6.85 这一关键点位附近，我们预期将 进入温和的震荡上行，下一个比较重要的点位可能在 6.75，是 2022 年 11 月 启动的快速强劲升值周期的低点。全年来看，人民币汇率依然是双向波动，不 会呈现单边的升值走势。展望 2026 年，目前人民币汇率正向着我们前期报告 分析师 张迪 ：010-8092-7737 ：zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 詹璐 ：0755-8345-3719 ：zhanlu @china ...

Group 1: AI Bubble Characteristics - The current AI bubble is characterized as a "rational bubble," differing from historical irrational bubbles like the Dutch tulip mania, due to AI's transformative potential for society[4] - The macroeconomic environment, valuation structures, and investment intensity indicate that the risks associated with the current AI bubble are manageable compared to the 2000 internet bubble[4] - Global major economies are in a rate-cutting window, with actual interest rates significantly declining, which increases market tolerance for long-term capital expenditures and uncertainties in future returns[4] Group 2: Risks and Potential Outcomes - Structural and cyclical issues in the global economy present systemic risks that exceed those during the 2000 internet bubble, driven by demographic aging, debt expansion, and de-globalization[4] - The AI bubble may lead to unexpected liquidity tightening, especially if geopolitical tensions raise commodity prices, potentially resulting in a "secondary inflation" scenario[5] - The difficulty in forming a closed-loop business model within the AI industry could hinder the sustainability of the bubble, as heavy asset expansion increases operational cash flow pressures[5] Group 3: Economic Implications - AI's impact on employment and consumption may lead to economic demand shocks, with the potential for a "smart crisis" that could exacerbate economic downturns[5] - If the bubble bursts, China's adjustment may be more manageable due to its national system and domestic market advantages[5] - The ongoing AI investment is still in the early stages of technology diffusion, with significant room for growth compared to the peak of the internet cycle[7]

Economic Growth Targets - The GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to be adjusted to a more pragmatic range of 4.5% to 5.0%[2] - The budget expenditure is anticipated to exceed 30 trillion yuan[2] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy will maintain necessary intensity, with a focus on preemptive measures and optimized direction[3] - The budget for 2026 is projected to be 30 trillion yuan, representing a 4% increase[2] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy will be flexible and efficient, working in coordination with fiscal measures to stabilize the market[3] - Interest rates may be adjusted by 50 basis points to support economic stability[3] Domestic Demand and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is a top priority, with investments in both physical infrastructure and human capital closely linked[3] - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow by 15% in 2026, compared to a 5.7% increase in 2025[3] New Growth Drivers - The importance of "AI+" will increase, emphasizing the integration of artificial intelligence in various sectors[3] - There will be a focus on regional collaborative innovation and the development of industrial clusters[3]

Core Insights - The overall performance of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) on February 25, 2026, showed a slight increase, with the BSE 50 index rising by 0.77% to close at 1,547.20 points. The specialized and innovative index increased by 1.22% to 2,597.61 points, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][4][6]. - The total trading volume on the BSE reached 18.656 billion yuan, with a trading volume of 787 million shares, reflecting a recovery compared to the average daily trading volume of 18.575 billion yuan in the previous week [1][6]. - Most sectors on the BSE experienced gains, particularly non-ferrous metals (up 3.1%), environmental protection (up 2.5%), and transportation (up 2.4%). Conversely, the oil and petrochemical sector saw a decline of 5.9% [1][4][6]. Company Performance - Among the 294 listed companies on the BSE, 208 saw their stock prices rise, while 80 experienced declines. Leading gainers included Tonghui Information (+10.28%), Anda Technology (+8.20%), and Tianli Composite (+6.33%). Notable decliners were Liancheng CNC (-7.13%), Keli Co., Ltd. (-5.88%), and Shisheng Intelligent (-3.51%) [1][7][8]. - The trading activity was particularly high for Keli Co., Ltd. with a turnover rate of 38.52%, followed by Nongda Technology at 24.91% and Tonghui Information at 22.82% [1][7]. Valuation Insights - The overall valuation of companies listed on the BSE was reported at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47.68 times, which is higher than the P/E ratios of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (79.31 times) and the ChiNext Board (46.83 times) [1][9]. - Sector-wise, the non-ferrous metals industry had the highest average P/E ratio at 131.3 times, followed by telecommunications (90.5 times) and oil and petrochemicals (90.2 times) [1][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Insights - The Shanghai government has introduced new policies to relax housing purchase restrictions, aiming to promote a stable and healthy development of the real estate market [3] - The policies include lowering the threshold for non-local residents to purchase homes, increasing the maximum housing provident fund loan amount, and improving property tax policies to support housing demand [3] - The report suggests that these measures will likely release pent-up housing demand, leading to a gradual recovery in the real estate market [3] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The Shanghai government has relaxed housing purchase restrictions for non-local residents, including: - Reducing the minimum social security or individual income tax payment period to 1 year for purchasing homes in the outer ring [3] - Allowing non-local residents who have paid individual income tax for 3 years or more to purchase an additional home in the outer ring [3] - Permitting non-local residents with a Shanghai residence permit for over 5 years to buy one home without proof of social security or tax payments [3] Loan Policy Adjustments - The maximum housing provident fund loan amount for first-time homebuyers has been increased from 1.6 million to 2.4 million, with potential increases for families with multiple children or those purchasing green buildings [3] - The loan policy has been optimized to allow individuals who have previously used provident fund loans to apply again under certain conditions [3] Tax Policy Enhancements - Starting January 1, 2026, property tax exemptions will be granted to local residents' children when purchasing their first home, aimed at stimulating housing demand [3] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in leading real estate companies such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land, among others [3] - It also suggests focusing on quality developers, property management firms, and commercial real estate [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The "Trade-in Policy" has shown initial effectiveness, driving automotive consumption exceeding 100 billion yuan, with the average purchase price for trade-in vehicles rising to over 164,000 yuan [4] - As of February 19, 2026, the trade-in policy has benefited 28.88 million people, generating sales of 198.02 billion yuan, with 612,000 vehicles traded in, leading to new car sales of 100.53 billion yuan [4] - The report anticipates a recovery in automotive market consumption post-Spring Festival, supported by the upcoming launch of several flagship new energy products [4] Summary by Sections Automotive Market Performance - In January 2026, China's automotive sales decreased by 3.2% year-on-year to 2.346 million units, with domestic sales down 14.8% to 1.665 million units [4] - Passenger vehicle sales saw a significant decline of 19.5% year-on-year, while commercial vehicle sales increased by 23.4% [4] - Exports of automobiles rose by 44.9% year-on-year to 681,000 units, with passenger vehicle exports increasing by 48.9% [4] New Energy Vehicle Insights - New energy vehicle sales in January 2026 were stable, with a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year to 945,000 units, achieving a penetration rate of 40.3% [4] - The report highlights that the penetration rate for new energy passenger vehicles is 41.7%, while commercial vehicles stand at 22.6% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading passenger vehicle companies, the intelligent manufacturing supply chain, and the humanoid robot industry chain [4] - Specific recommendations include Geely Automobile and Great Wall Motors for vehicle manufacturing, and companies like Desay SV and Horizon Robotics for intelligent components [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][57]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a single-product model to a platform-based beverage giant, with energy drink sustainability and new product expansion being key factors influencing performance and stock price [8]. - The energy drink segment is expected to stabilize in the short term, with long-term growth potential remaining significant due to market expansion and increasing consumer demographics [11][14]. - New product launches, particularly in milk tea and unsweetened tea, are anticipated to catalyze sales growth in the upcoming months [18][23]. - Multiple internal and external factors are expected to contribute to margin improvement, including raw material cost reductions and operational efficiencies [29]. - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in Southeast Asia, with significant revenue potential projected for the region by 2030 [37]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 211 billion, 271 billion, and 330 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 28%, and 22% [48]. - The net profit for the same period is forecasted to be 45 billion, 59 billion, and 73 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 37%, 30%, and 23% [49]. - The company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 33, 25, and 20 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [57].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the communication industry [2] Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing robust growth across the entire value chain, with a high level of activity in the computing power sector [1][5] - Domestic advancements include the development of 5G-A technologies and the integration of AI applications, indicating a strong focus on enhancing computational resources [1][5] - Internationally, collaborations such as the partnership between STMicroelectronics and AWS highlight the industry's shift towards AI and cloud computing, with significant investments in data center infrastructure [1][5] Summary by Sections Domestic Developments - The report emphasizes the progress in 5G-A technologies and the ongoing research in 6G, focusing on seamless integration between optical and wireless communication systems [1] - The demand for computational resources is increasing, indicating that the computing power industry remains in a high-growth phase [5] International Collaborations - Notable partnerships, such as META's agreement with NVIDIA, showcase the industry's commitment to advancing AI capabilities and enhancing computational efficiency [1] - The construction of data centers in the U.S. by major companies like Facebook and OpenAI reflects ongoing investments in infrastructure to support growing computational needs [1][5]

Group 1: Domestic Economic Trends - The extended Spring Festival holiday is expected to boost travel, tourism, and consumption significantly, with a projected increase in passenger volume during the Spring Festival travel rush[2] - In 2026, the Spring Festival is anticipated to set five new records for travel intensity, with a notable increase in self-driving trips and strong demand for tourism[9] - The sales of commercial housing during the Spring Festival are expected to show a positive year-on-year growth of 5.2%[4] Group 2: AI and Technological Advancements - The year 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for the widespread adoption of AI consumer terminals, marking the beginning of competitive AI applications[2] - The introduction of AI technologies during the Spring Festival gala has enhanced public awareness of embodied intelligence, further supporting the notion of 2026 as a key year for AI application competition[34] Group 3: International Trade and Currency - The repeal of Trump-era tariffs is expected to lead to a moderate appreciation of the RMB, with the current tariff rate on Chinese goods at 28.93%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from late 2025[4] - The global trade tensions are easing, which is likely to support a resilient growth rate in China's export sector[4] Group 4: Inflation and Economic Data - Inflation rates in the US and Japan are lower than expected, indicating a downward trend, with the US CPI at 2.4% and Japan's at 1.5%[6] - The US GDP growth for Q4 2025 was below expectations, primarily due to temporary impacts from government shutdowns, reflecting a growth rate of 1.4%[6]