策略周报 海外大选冲击不会改变市场上行趋势 2024 年 11 月 05 日 【策略观点】 � 本周（10 月 28 日-11 月 1 日）中证 500、中小综指、中小 100 表现 居前，涨幅分别为 0. 38%、0. 11%、-0. 63%。 � 申万一级行业角度,本周涨幅前五的分别是房地产(6.01%)、钢铁 (4.65%)、商贸零售（4.56%）、社会服务（2.65%）、综合 (2.57%)。跌幅前五分别是国防军工（-3.38%）、通信（- 3.28%）、医药生物(-2.9%)、家用电器(-2.89%)、电力设备(- 2.82%）。 本周（10月28日-11 月 1 日）主力资金净流入居前的概念板块分别 � 足稀土永磁（本周净流入 37.57 亿）、租售同权（本周净流入 12.49 亿）、小金属概念（本周净流入 10.53 亿）、社区团购（本周净流 入 6.22 亿）、青蒿素（本周净流入 3.77 亿）。 � 个股方面,本周资金净流入规模前三名分别为东山精密(21.67 亿 元）、赛力斯（17.14 亿元）、通富微电（16.17 亿元）。 � 两融资金方面,截止10月31日,本周融资净流入 444.3 ...

建筑行业专题研究 Q3整体承压、等待化债，当前依然最看 好央企 2024 年 11 月 05 日 【投资要点】 2024 年前三季度建筑企业新签订单同比下降 7.8%,央企订单韧性更 强。我们的样本建筑企业 2024H1 合计新签订单 11.82 万亿元,同比 -3.09%，其中 2024Q3 新签订单 3.09 万亿元，同比-7.3% (2024H1 :- 1.5%),分所有制来看,央企、地方国企及民企 2024年前 三季度分别新签订单 105219/11737/1273 亿元,同比下降 2.49%/6.96%/ 14.04%,央企的订单初性仍然最优。分板块来看,央 企中中国建筑、中国交建以及能源建设类企业中国电建、中国能建订 单增速较快,而地方国企内分化明显,华东和珠三角地区地方国企订 单整体优于其余区域地方国企。 2024 年前三季度建筑企业收入和利润有压力, 央企障幅相对较小。 � 2024年前三季度,建筑上市公司实现收入 62282.5 亿元,同比-5.0%, 实现归母净利润 1377.8 亿元，同比-8.1%，其中 Q3 单季度，建筑上 市公司实现收入 19814.9 亿元，同比-8.24%，实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to TCL Technology (000100) based on its strong growth potential in the display business and expected recovery in the photovoltaic sector [5] Core Views - TCL Technology's display business showed strong growth momentum in Q3 2024, with significant profit improvement in TCL Huaxing [1] - The photovoltaic business (TCL Zhonghuan) faced challenges but is expected to recover due to industry self-regulation [1] - Market share in TV panels remains strong globally, with leadership in 55-inch and 75-inch segments [1] - The acquisition of LG's production line is expected to enhance market position and competitiveness [1] Business Performance Display Business - TCL Huaxing achieved revenue of 76.956 billion yuan, up 25.74% YoY, with net profit of 4.443 billion yuan [1] - Large-size TV panel prices stabilized in October 2024, while IT panel prices entered a seasonal downward trend [1] - Market share in 55-inch and 75-inch TV panels ranked first globally, with 65-inch panels ranking second [1] - IT and automotive display market share increased significantly, with gaming monitors maintaining global leadership [1] Photovoltaic Business - TCL Zhonghuan reported revenue of 22.582 billion yuan, down 53.6% YoY, with a net loss of 6.478 billion yuan [1] - Industry self-regulation is expected to stabilize prices and accelerate industry consolidation [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 42.828 billion yuan, down 10.73% YoY but up 6.12% QoQ [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 530 million yuan, down 58.29% YoY [1] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 11.45%, down 6.45 percentage points YoY [1] Market Position - TV panel market share remains second globally, with leadership in 55-inch and 75-inch segments [1] - IT and automotive display market share increased significantly, with gaming monitors maintaining global leadership [1] - LTPS smartphone panel shipments ranked second globally, with flexible OLED panel shipments growing steadily [1] Future Outlook - Revenue is forecasted to reach 166.548 billion yuan in 2024, 189.033 billion yuan in 2025, and 213.057 billion yuan in 2026 [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.383 billion yuan in 2024, 5.311 billion yuan in 2025, and 8.622 billion yuan in 2026 [5] - EPS is projected to be 0.13 yuan in 2024, 0.28 yuan in 2025, and 0.46 yuan in 2026 [5] Valuation - Current P/E ratio is 35.98x for 2023, expected to decrease to 34.52x in 2024, 15.49x in 2025, and 9.54x in 2026 [6] - P/B ratio is 1.53x for 2023, expected to decrease to 1.52x in 2024, 1.43x in 2025, and 1.31x in 2026 [6] - EV/EBITDA is 6.73x for 2023, expected to decrease to 5.53x in 2024, 4.55x in 2025, and 3.63x in 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for BOE Technology Group Co., Ltd. (京东方A) [5][6] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in the first half of 2024, with revenue of 143.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.31 billion yuan, up 223.80% year-on-year [3] - The LCD business continues to lead in global market share, while the OLED segment shows increasing shipment volumes, indicating a positive outlook for the company's profitability [4][6] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth up to 1 billion yuan to implement an employee stock ownership plan, which may enhance shareholder value [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 50.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.65% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.99%. The net profit for the same period was 1.03 billion yuan, up 258.21% year-on-year but down 21.11% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The comprehensive gross margin for Q3 2024 was 17.41%, an increase of 2.58 percentage points year-on-year, but a slight decrease of 0.05 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] Business Segments - In the LCD segment, BOE remains the global leader in display shipments, with a market share of approximately 26% in August 2024 [4] - The OLED segment saw further growth in flexible AMOLED product shipments, driven by the release of high-end flagship models from various smartphone brands [3][4] Future Projections - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to 200.29 billion yuan, 226.00 billion yuan, and 239.21 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 4.63 billion yuan, 7.54 billion yuan, and 10.42 billion yuan [6][7] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.12 yuan, 0.20 yuan, and 0.28 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 37, 23, and 16 [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [4]. Core Views - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery driven by AI advancements, leading to increased demand for memory and advanced process chips. Major storage companies are expanding production significantly, with SK Hynix planning to increase DRAM monthly output by 14-15 times compared to Q1 2024, and TSMC raising prices for advanced process foundry services by 8%-10% for AI-related products [1][7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the storage expansion cycle, as its major clients are leading storage firms. The demand for temperature control products is expected to rise due to the increasing costs associated with advanced process development [1][7]. - The company's Q3 performance showed a significant increase in revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 53.42% in Q3 alone [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 772 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.84%, and a net profit of 130 million yuan, up 11.14% year-on-year. In Q3, revenue reached 267 million yuan, reflecting a 53.42% increase year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 were 35.42% and 18.73%, respectively, with a decline in net margin attributed to impairment losses and a high base from government subsidies in the previous year [2]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 966 million yuan in 2024 to 1.68 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits projected to rise from 163 million yuan to 284 million yuan over the same period [7][8]. - The report anticipates a strong rebound in the semiconductor equipment market by 2025, driven by increased capital expenditures from downstream manufacturers [1][7]. Key Metrics - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 8.76 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 2.1 billion yuan. The stock has seen a 52-week high of 64.00 yuan and a low of 34.01 yuan [3]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 53.65, 40.80, and 30.82, respectively, indicating a decreasing valuation as earnings grow [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [4] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was strong, driven by robust industry demand [1] - Revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2024 increased significantly, with revenue reaching 5.185 billion yuan (+47.46% YoY) and net profit reaching 619 million yuan (+89.19% YoY) [1] - Q3 2024 single-quarter revenue and net profit also showed substantial growth, with revenue at 1.766 billion yuan (+33.86% YoY) and net profit at 195 million yuan (+35.31% YoY) [1] - Gross margin improved in Q3 2024, reaching 23.85% (+1.1pct YoY), attributed to cost control and economies of scale [1] - The company's inventory turnover accelerated, with inventory turnover days decreasing by 26 days YoY to 147 days [1] - The company is a leader in the nylon industry, with an integrated business model and strong product offerings [1] - Future growth is expected from downstream demand in sectors like sun-protective clothing and outdoor apparel, as well as ongoing capacity expansion projects [1] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue: 5.185 billion yuan (+47.46% YoY) [1] - Q1-Q3 2024 net profit: 619 million yuan (+89.19% YoY) [1] - Q3 2024 single-quarter revenue: 1.766 billion yuan (+33.86% YoY) [1] - Q3 2024 single-quarter net profit: 195 million yuan (+35.31% YoY) [1] Margins and Expenses - Q3 2024 gross margin: 23.85% (+1.1pct YoY) [1] - Q3 2024 net margin: 11.02% (+0.12pct YoY) [1] - Q3 2024 financial expense ratio: 1.97% (+0.96pct YoY) [1] Inventory and Receivables - Q3 2024 accounts receivable: 1.202 billion yuan (+42.27% YoY) [1] - Q3 2024 inventory: 2.299 billion yuan (+19.49% YoY) [1] - Q3 2024 accounts payable: 838 million yuan (-16.29% YoY) [1] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from strong downstream demand in sectors like sun-protective clothing and outdoor apparel [1] - Ongoing capacity expansion projects, including a 100,000-ton PA6 recycled differentiated fiber project and a 60,000-ton PA66 differentiated fiber project, are expected to drive future growth [1] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on its leading position in the nylon industry and its integrated business model [1] Valuation and Forecast - 2024-2026 net profit forecast: 779 million yuan, 940 million yuan, and 1.116 billion yuan, respectively [4] - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 6.939 billion yuan, 8.020 billion yuan, and 9.052 billion yuan, respectively [5] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: 0.88 yuan, 1.06 yuan, and 1.25 yuan, respectively [5] - 2024-2026 P/E ratios: 13.19X, 10.93X, and 9.20X, respectively [4]

巨星科技（002444）2024年三季报点评 产能瓶颈突破，利润弹性可期 2024 年 11 月 04 日 【投资要点】 公司发布 2024年三季报。公司前三季度实现营收 110.84 亿元（同比 +28.73%)，归母净利润 19.35 亿元(同比+28.50%)，扣非净利润 19.33 亿元（同比+24.95%）。单季度看，公司 Q3 实现营收 43.83 亿元（同 比+ 30. 25%),归母净利润 7. 42 亿元(同比+17. 05%), 扣非净利润 7. 26 亿元（同比+13.37%）。 � 汇率波动影响表观增速,实际业绩创历史新高。公司此次归母净利增 速处于此前业绩预告的增速中枢以下,主要原因有二:1)人民币汇 率波动,预告时人民币中间价 7.0525,实际结算时人民币中间价 7.0074. 为本轮最低:2)欧洲和美国本土企业的盈利能力略低于预 期。若按报表披露日汇率计算,三季度利润情况远超预告上限，达到 历史新高。 越南产能建设加快,二期投产缓解产能瓶颈,三四期建设保障未来发 展。Q3 公司越南二期工厂顺利投产,东南亚产能占比达 73%,预计年 底超过 75%,越南基地建设加快。产能瓶颈缓解 ...

常润股份（603201）2024年三季报点评 业绩持续高增长，推动跨境电商发展 2024 年 11 月 04 日 【投资要点】 公司发布 2024 年三季报。公司前三季度实现营收 22.36 亿元（同比 +4.28%),归母净利润 1.53 亿元（同比+20.89%）,其中扣非归母净利 润 1.49 亿元（同比+16.93%）。单季度看，公司 Q3 实现营收 7.86 亿 元（同比-7.01%），归母净利润 6，626 万元（同比+9.45%）。 单季度归母净利润保持增长,现金流改善明显。2024年在全球经济不 确定的背景下,公司 2024Q1-Q3 单季度归母净利润均保持正增长,增 速分别为 73.25%/1.85%/9.45%。公司 2024Q1-Q3 累计经营活动产生现 金流量净额 2.70 亿元，同比增长 78.42%，现金流改善明显，我们认 为可能是公司今年以来继续发挥平台、海外仓、品牌等优势,重点投 入发展跨境电商业务所致。 毛利率提升,汽车配套零部件业务或为主因。毛利率方面,公司 � 2024Q1-3 整体毛利率达 20.68%，较上年同期上升 1.84pct; 据公司 2024半年报,收入占比 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index over the next 3 to 12 months [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1430.35 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.51%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 61.52 billion yuan, up by 2.06% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 557.32 billion yuan, a 2.7% increase year-on-year, while net profit decreased by 7.09% to 26.91 billion yuan [1]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to lead to a compensatory increase in railway investment, with an average annual investment of approximately 875 billion yuan from 2024 to 2025. This is driven by the need for maintenance and replacement of aging railway equipment, which is projected to boost the company's revenue from railway equipment significantly [2]. - The company has optimized its cost management, resulting in a decrease in the expense ratio to 14.91%, down by 0.82 percentage points year-on-year. This has led to an improvement in the net profit margin, which increased to 4.75%, up by 0.45 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1430.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.51%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 61.52 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.06% increase year-on-year. In Q3, the revenue was 557.32 billion yuan, a 2.7% increase, while net profit decreased by 7.09% to 26.91 billion yuan [1]. Market Outlook - The railway equipment sector is expected to experience rapid growth due to the compensatory investment from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the need for maintenance and replacement of aging equipment. The company's railway business revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 717.65 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 36.69% [2]. Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced its expense ratio to 14.91%, which is a decrease of 0.82 percentage points compared to the previous year. This improvement in cost management has positively impacted the net profit margin, which rose to 4.75%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 129.97 billion yuan, 140.45 billion yuan, and 151.60 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to be 19, 17, and 16 times [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 295.14 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.44%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.6 billion yuan, up 17.28% year-on-year [1]. - New orders have shown stable growth, particularly in the Belt and Road regions, with new contracts totaling 988.86 billion yuan, a 5.03% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from high demand in energy construction and urban development, supported by national policies promoting green energy and infrastructure [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 100.88 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.24% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 820 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 97.81% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 11.54%, up 0.59 percentage points year-on-year, while the margin for Q3 was 10.28%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Order and Contract Growth - The company secured new orders worth 250.26 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a decrease of 15.3% year-on-year [1]. - The new contracts in traditional energy, renewable energy, and integrated smart energy construction amounted to 2,486.58 billion yuan, 3,919.49 billion yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 46.38% and a decrease of 2.83% [1]. Cash Flow and Investment - The cash collection ratio improved to 92.99%, an increase of 6.24 percentage points year-on-year, leading to a reduction in net cash outflow to 12.518 billion yuan [1]. - Investment income rose to 455 million yuan, an increase of 571 million yuan year-on-year, which helped offset the impact of increased expenses and impairment losses [1]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high level of activity in energy construction, with traditional thermal power demand remaining strong [1]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 8.479 billion yuan, 9.062 billion yuan, and 10.168 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a growth rate of 6.17%, 6.89%, and 12.20% [5].