证券研究报告·行业深度 2024 年 3 季度养老金融跟踪 报告（更新） 核心观点 推进中国式养老事业、发展银发经济，事关国家发展全局和 亿万人民福祉，而发展养老金融是促进中国特色金融和养老事业 高质量发展良性循环的关键着力点。此次养老金融季度跟踪报告 内容覆盖基本养老保险、社保基金、企业年金、养老金融产品和 个人养老金等三支柱养老金体系和养老产业金融，跟踪养老金融 发展动态，助力做好养老金融大文章，供读者参考。 摘要 推进中国式养老事业、发展银发经济，事关国家发展全局 和亿万人民福祉，而发展养老金融是促进中国特色金融和养老 事业高质量发展良性循环的关键着力点。此次养老金融季度跟 踪报告内容覆盖基本养老保险、社保基金、企业年金、养老金 融产品和个人养老金等三支柱养老金体系和养老产业金融，跟 踪养老金融发展动态，助力做好养老金融大文章，供读者参 考。 本期报告的核心数据如下： 第一支柱：截至 24Q3，基本养老保险基金委托投资规模 1.9 万亿元。 第二支柱：截至 24Q3，企业年金计划积累基金规模约 3.52 万亿元，同比+12.9%；单三季度，企业年金加权平均投资收益 率 1.56%，同比+1.81pct。 ...

中信建投证券 CHINASECURITIES | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Trends - The core contradiction in China's economy remains its internal demand, influenced by the balance of internal and external factors and the rhythm of the RMB exchange rate[2] - In 2024, the global macroeconomic landscape is characterized by five key themes: persistent inflation in the US, weak demand and policy expansion in China, pricing opportunities in upstream commodities driven by liquidity and geopolitical factors, global manufacturing supply chain restructuring, and the continued strength of the US dollar[3] - The US MAGA (Make America Great Again) policy framework has been effectively implemented for nearly a decade, regardless of the political party in power[5] Group 2: US Economic Policies - The MAGA policy aims to bring high-end manufacturing back to the US, strengthen technological leadership, and restructure the global supply chain for low-end manufacturing[9] - The Biden administration's MAGA framework has led to significant private sector investment and persistent core inflation, with technology stocks outperforming expectations[12] - The US economy is expected to face uncertainties in 2025, including downstream inflation, monetary policy direction, and fiscal policy pressures due to high government debt levels[15][18] Group 3: China's Economic Recovery - China's economic recovery is expected to follow three stages: liquidity easing, recovery of the real estate sector, and guiding capacity clearance to restore asset prices[22] - The current weak internal demand in China is not solely due to insufficient policy support but is also a result of a necessary transition in the real estate sector from financial products to consumer goods[11] - The probability of a strong stimulus similar to the 2008 four trillion yuan package is low, given the significant differences in the current economic fundamentals[12] Group 4: Global Commodity and Market Outlook - The global commodity market is influenced by geopolitical factors and liquidity expectations, with gold prices rising over 30% this year due to high inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions[84] - The restructuring of global manufacturing supply chains is evident, with China's machinery exports growing by 9.4% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the overall export growth rate of 4.6%[96] - The outlook for major asset classes in 2025 suggests that US stocks and bonds will be heavily influenced by monetary policy, while China's stock market may benefit from liquidity-driven trading opportunities[24]

Macroeconomic Outlook - GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%[2] - Inflation is expected to rise moderately, with CPI growth around 1% and PPI growth around 0%[3] - Fiscal deficit rate is projected to increase significantly, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and a broad fiscal deficit rate of 8.2%-9.6%[3] Policy Focus - Policies will focus on external shocks, macroeconomic regulation, and long-term planning, with a balance between supply and demand[4] - Real estate policies will continue to intensify, with reforms in the housing market and local government debt resolution[4] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will deepen reforms and promote modernization, with a focus on technological innovation and industrial upgrading[121] Asset Allocation - Gold prices are expected to rise, potentially reaching $3000/ounce, driven by global uncertainty and monetary policy adjustments[128] - Crude oil prices are expected to slightly decline due to OPEC production increases and relaxed US energy regulations[129] - A-shares are recommended for overweight allocation, while the bond market is cautiously optimistic[130] Investment Opportunities - Key investment themes include mergers and acquisitions, technological innovation, leading companies, new supply chains, and elderly care and fertility sectors[4]

量化 CTA 风格因子跟踪-本周动量因子 表现较好 摘要 传统上，多因子主要应用于股票市场。随着我国期货 市场规模和上市品种数量的充分增长，多因子截面 CTA 策略也日益受到交易者关注。 我们研究发现了动量、期限结构、贝塔、波动率、偏 度、持仓等因子的有效性，并通过指数化，形成期货 市场的 Smart Beta，对它们作持续的跟踪。 风险提示：本报告仅对商品期货市场风格作客观呈现， 不具备任何交易建议。历史业绩不代表未来业绩，回 测业绩不代表实盘业绩，期市有风险，入市需谨慎。 C H I N A F U T U R E S R E S E A R C H 简评报告 [table_invest] 作者姓名：彭鲸桥 邮箱：pengjingqiao@csc.com.cn 电话：023-86769675 期货从业信息：F3074348 期货交易咨询从业信息：Z0012925 研究助理：盛亦青 邮箱：shengyiqing@csc.com.cn 电话：021-50600172 期货从业信息：F03107834 发布日期： 2024 年 9 月 15 日 | 一、 | 市场及板块一览 1 | | --- | --- | ...

证券研究报告·债券动态 日本意外加息，全球收益率下行 ——全球债市观察双周报 2024811 期 核心观点 利率债方面，仍维持中枢波动下行的假设，上行是加仓机会。本期全球国 债利率中枢亦维持下行方向，10Y 美债利率从 4.2%一度降至 3.7%以下， 期末回到 3.9-4%区间。往后看，美国通胀、就业数据逐步回落的大趋势难 改，利率大方向仍是往下。信用债方面，衰退风险仍可控，高等级信用债 和 MBS 类资产的票息价值仍然值得关注，但投机级、高风险行业应该规 避。美国经济基本面风险可控，出现快速下行乃至衰退的概率不大，因而 美国高等级信用债违约风险不大。目前投机级美国信用债的利差已经处于 30%左右较低的历史分位数，利差保护略显不足。 内容要点 一、全球债市观察：全球收益率下行、美国降息预期加重 本期（7 月 29 日至 8 月 11 日），彭博全球综合指数收益率收 3.51%，彭 博全球综合信用指数收益率收 4.50%，较两周前分别-20.34、-17.73BP。 利率预期方面，美国年内降息预期次数增加，日本由于 7 月 31 日加息， 年内加息预期减弱。国别利差方面，各地区代表国家对美国利差倒挂均收 窄。 ...

证券研究报告·策略周报 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|----------------------------------------------|--------------------------| | | 日央行加息,套息交易逆转 流动性周观察8月第1期 | | | 分析师:陈果 | 分析师:夏凡捷 | 分析师:姚皓天 | | chenguodcq@csc. com. cn | xiafanjie@csc.com.cn | yaohaotian@csc.com.cn | | SAC 编号: S1440521120006 | SAC 编号: S1440521120005 | SAC 编号: S1440523020001 | | SFC编号: BUE195 | | | 发布日期:2024年8月6日 本报告由中信建设证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信健技（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。 同时请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。 核心观点 ● | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the autoimmune drug market, suggesting that the rapid growth in market size will drive the development of innovative drugs in China [2][3][4]. Core Insights - The patient population for autoimmune diseases and type II inflammation is rapidly increasing, with the market size expected to reach $24.7 billion by 2030, primarily driven by psoriasis and ankylosing spondylitis [2][3]. - The report highlights the significant potential for improvement in the efficacy and safety of existing drugs, with numerous new drugs emerging with novel targets and mechanisms of action [2][3]. - Key companies in the domestic autoimmune sector include Heng Rui Medicine, Innovent Biologics, and others, with a focus on psoriasis and atopic dermatitis [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The autoimmune drug market is experiencing accelerated growth, second only to oncology drugs, with substantial room for advancement in treatment efficacy and safety [2][3]. - The prevalence of psoriasis is the highest among autoimmune diseases, with a rate of 2.7%, while ankylosing spondylitis and rheumatoid arthritis have similar prevalence rates [2][3]. Company Pipeline and Development - Companies such as Heng Rui Medicine and Innovent Biologics have robust pipelines, with several drugs in late-stage clinical trials or submitted for market approval [2][3][4]. - The report details the progress of various drug candidates targeting IL-4R, JAK, and IL-23, with some already approved or in advanced clinical stages [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is characterized by a rich pipeline of innovative drugs targeting various autoimmune conditions, with a focus on differentiation through novel mechanisms [2][3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic partnerships and licensing agreements in enhancing the development and commercialization of new therapies [2][3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for companies with strong clinical pipelines and operational efficiencies, specifically highlighting Heng Rui Medicine, Innovent Biologics, and others as key players to watch [2][3][4].

看点① ：主动权益基金股票仓位下降 1.7pct 至 82.7%。 1）主动增配较多的行业：电子、通信、家用电器、国防军工； 看点④ ：红利板块配置拥挤度有所下降。 2024 年 2 季度，主动权益基金主要增配港股传媒、通信、电子、 消费者服务、纺织服装等行业，主要减配医药、煤炭、汽车、食 品饮料等行业。 chenguodcq@csc.com.cn SAC 编号：S1440521120006 上证指数、创业板指走势图 -20% -10% 0% 10% 202 3/6/29202 3/7/29202 3/8/29202 3/9/ 29 202 3/10 /29202 3/11 /29202 3/12 /29202 4/1/ 29202 4/2/ 29202 4/3/31202 4/4/30202 4/5/31 上证指数 沪深300 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a detailed analysis of the recovery trends in various sectors of the global consumer goods industry, focusing on cosmetics, luxury goods, duty-free, travel, and entertainment sectors [1][2] Core Views - The global consumer goods industry is experiencing a mixed recovery, with some sectors like cosmetics and luxury goods showing signs of improvement, while others like duty-free and travel are still struggling to regain pre-pandemic levels [3][30][49] - The recovery is uneven across regions, with Asia-Pacific showing slower recovery compared to Europe and the Americas [14][20][36] - The report highlights the importance of multi-brand strategies and regional diversification for companies to navigate the post-pandemic landscape [16][28] Cosmetics Sector - In Q1 2023, international cosmetics brands in Japan and South Korea showed relatively weaker performance, with brands like Shiseido and Amore Pacific experiencing significant declines in revenue [3] - L'Oréal reported strong growth in its dermatological beauty segment, with a 30 6% increase in Q1 2023, while its luxury cosmetics segment saw slower growth [4] - The Chinese market continues to impact global cosmetics brands, with Shiseido reporting a 3% decline in revenue in China for Q1 2023 [7] - South Korean skincare brands are facing challenges, with Amore Pacific reporting a 17% decline in overseas revenue in Q1 2023, primarily due to weak demand in Asia [9] Luxury Goods Sector - Luxury brands like Hermès, LVMH, and Kering showed improved performance in Q1 2023, with Hermès reporting a 26 1% growth in Japan [30][36] - The Americas market for luxury goods is slowing down, with brands like Kering reporting a decline in North American sales [32] - The Asia-Pacific region, particularly Japan, is driving growth for luxury brands, with LVMH reporting a 34% increase in sales in Japan for Q1 2023 [36] Duty-Free Sector - The duty-free sector is recovering unevenly, with European and American markets showing faster recovery compared to Asia [49] - South Korea's duty-free market is struggling, with sales in Q1 2023 down by 51 3% compared to the same period in 2019 [51] - China Duty Free has emerged as the largest duty-free operator globally, with its revenue surpassing pre-pandemic levels [56] Travel and Entertainment Sector - The travel sector is recovering, with OTA platforms like Expedia and Booking reporting strong growth in bookings, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [63][65] - The entertainment sector, particularly live events, is seeing a strong rebound, with Live Nation Entertainment reporting record revenues in Q1 2023 [77] - The cruise industry is still recovering, with major operators like Carnival and Royal Caribbean reporting significant losses despite an increase in passenger days [81][82] Regional Recovery Trends - The Americas and Europe are leading the recovery in the cosmetics and luxury goods sectors, while Asia-Pacific is lagging behind [14][20][36] - The duty-free sector in Europe and the Americas is recovering faster than in Asia, with operators like Dufry and Lagardère reporting improved performance [49][53] - The travel sector is seeing a strong recovery in the Asia-Pacific region, with OTA platforms reporting significant growth in bookings [63][65]