4 March 2025 | 10:13AM HKT 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 China Spirits Tracker: Moutai/Laojiao hosted conferences emphasizing focus on L-T sustainable growth The general manager of Moutai Group, Li Wang, recently led a team visiting Fujian/Guangdong markets and hosted conferences on Moutai series spirits. During the meeting, management shared that Moutai series spirits achieved the LNY sales target and noticed strong retail sales momentum in Moutai 1935/Moutai Princes during LNY. The meeting emphasized a con ...

Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 3 March 2025 | 6:00PM EST USA: Trump Announces Intent to Move Forward With New Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China BOTTOM LINE: President Trump reiterated today (Mar. 3) that he would impose tariffs March 4 ...

US Economics Analyst Industry Winners and Losers from Potential Tariff Increases (Peng) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 3 March 2025 | 10:39AM EST Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng + ...

备受期待的两会将于 3 月 4 日开幕，值得关注的关键事件是李强总理将于 3 月 5 日上午发表的政府工作报告。本文回顾了两会前后中国资产的表现情况 — — 在股市方面，鉴于近期人工智能热潮过后市场出现盘整，且投资者仓位较低， 两会前的跌幅可能较浅。而由于市场对积极惊喜的预期门槛较低，会议结束后股 市有可能出现上涨行情。在利率方面，自上周五中国人民银行以少量逆回购操作 令市场感到不安后，资金紧张可能是比两会更重要的驱动因素，而且长期债券尚 未出现显著调整。历史数据表明，两会后 3 月份收益率曲线更有可能趋平，不 过这次情况可能有所不同。就外部背景而言，我们需要留意特朗普在贸易和国家 安全方面不断升级的强硬立场，这可能会对中国资产造成压力。 * 在财政赤字率的 "实际值" 一栏中，括号外和括号内的数字分别指官方预算 内财政赤字率和实际预算内财政赤字率。 资料来源：高盛投资研究部（GIR）两会前瞻 股市 —— 两会前跌幅较浅，两会后往往表现良好 上周，在科技、媒体和通信（TMT）板块 / 人工智能受益股表现出色之后，恒生 指数（HSI）出现了今年以来的首次单周下跌。然而，我们并未看到任何恐慌性 抛售的迹象；相反， ...

China/HK - trades and charts Pullback in momentum this week especially towards the end, with both onshore and offshore China shares recording their first down week since Jan, HSTECH snapped its 6-week winning streak after a 5% loss. Trump's escalatory stance in terms of trade and national security reminded some investors that geopolitical uncertainties shouldn't be written off, and the painful momentum unwind in US tech space post NVDA numbers also triggered some unwind in Asia. The glass-half-full view her ...

风险。边缘。定位。表现。流动。 Following 以下 All Follows 所有跟随 Jamie Briggs Commentary 评论 APAC Execution Services: The Week Ahead APAC Flows Weekly - Mixed China flows ahead of NPC; Selling across East Asia Tech suppliers 亚太执行服务：下周展望 03 Mar 2025, 亚太资金流向周报 - NPC 前夕中国资金流向混合；东亚 科技供应商间的销售 | 食品 - 新动 亚太地区股票流动：关注点转向中国两会 3-Mar-2025, 00:21 2025 年 3 月 3 日，00:21 03 Mar 2025, 2025 年 3 月 3 日 HK & China Performance & Flows Summary Commentary 评论 香港与中国表现及资金流向概览 瑞士信贷期货周一市场前瞻 US 10 year yields broke lower on Friday to close at 4.2% with the ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Snowflake (SNOW) and Salesforce (CRM), while Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is rated as "Sell" [9][11][17]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant momentum rollover in the market, particularly with a high beta momentum basket down 15% during the recent drawdown, largely influenced by NVIDIA's (NVDA) 8.5% drop, equating to a market cap loss of approximately $320 billion [4][6]. - The upcoming imposition of a 20% tariff by the US on certain imports is a key focus, with expectations of further market volatility [4][14]. - The report notes that hedge funds (HFs) are experiencing considerable pain, with a loss of over 250 basis points in performance over the five trading sessions leading up to NVIDIA's earnings report, marking the worst stretch since August [4][6]. ETF Flows - The report indicates that the Germany ETF (EWG) is experiencing its best month of flows since February 2023, while the IWM ETF is on track for its worst month since January 2024 [7]. - Emerging markets (EEM) have seen their first inflows since May 2024, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment [7]. Company-Specific Updates - Millrose Properties (MRP) is initiated with a "Buy" rating due to strong cash flows and attractive yield, projecting an average EPS growth of 11% from 2025 to 2027 [12]. - Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) is also rated "Buy" following strong Q4 results, driven by the successful launch of Rezdira [13]. - BP Plc (BP.L) is rated "Buy" as it focuses on capital discipline and net debt reduction [17].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for Asia-focused fundamental long/short managers, with performance metrics showing significant gains in February 2025 [4][7][10]. Core Insights - Asia-focused fundamental long/short managers are up +2.8% month-to-date (MTD) and +4.0% year-to-date (YTD), driven by strong performance in China and favorable asset selection [4][10]. - China-focused managers have seen a +3.9% MTD and +6.5% YTD increase, primarily due to concentrated longs and technology sector tilts [4][10]. - Japanese managers are slightly down -0.6% MTD, with YTD returns at +0.4%, reflecting mixed performance across sectors [4][10]. - The report highlights that Asia is currently the most overweight region compared to MSCI World AC weights, with net allocations at +6.2% overweight and gross allocations at +2.6% overweight [20]. Performance Metrics - Gross leverage for Asia fundamental long/short managers is at 190%, which is in the 80th percentile over the past five years, while net leverage is at 60%, in the 78th percentile [15]. - Asian equities are experiencing the highest monthly risk-on activity in three years, with notable inflows from China/Hong Kong and Japan [4][17]. - Japanese equities have seen moderate net selling, but hedge funds are increasing their gross allocation to 6.4% (94th percentile) and net allocation to 5.7% (99th percentile) [31]. Sector Highlights - The industrials sector is the most net bought sector in February, with significant buying activity across Japan and China [41]. - Financials is the second most net bought sector, with inflows from both China and Japan, although allocations remain at multi-year lows [44]. - Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) stocks have seen modest net buying, with the highest risk-on activity in the region, particularly in China and Hong Kong [47]. Regional Allocations - China and Hong Kong equities have experienced strong risk-on flows, with gross allocations increasing by +0.8% to 5.4% and net allocations increasing by +1.5% to 8.5% [25][22]. - Positioning in Emerging Markets (EM) Asia excluding China has remained relatively flat, with moderate buying in Korea and Taiwan offset by selling in India [36].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Buy" on Sanhua, "Neutral" on Leaderdrive, Best Precision, and Moons' Electric based on valuation [8][15]. Core Insights - The technology inflection point for humanoid robots remains unclear due to insufficient capability in handling multiple generalized tasks, with a projected shipment of 76,000 units by 2027 and 502,000 units by 2032, which is slower than market expectations [8]. - Investment opportunities are currently seen in supply chain component names, particularly actuator assemblers and harmonic gear suppliers, due to higher product adoption certainty and stronger technology barriers [8]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - Unitree's H1 humanoid robot demonstrates robust hardware performance and strong autonomous self-balancing but is limited by having only 19 degrees of freedom, making it incapable of complex tasks [2][4]. - The company anticipates that humanoid robots will not achieve the same efficiency as human workers within the next 2-3 years, with meaningful applications expected in 5-10 years [2]. Robot Dogs - Unitree's GO2 robot dog showcases advanced gait control algorithms, with the company holding a 60-70% market share in the global quadruped robot market and generating 50% of its revenue from overseas [3][4]. - The robot dogs are primarily used for patrol, inspection, and hazardous task substitution, with thousands of units shipped annually [3]. Technology Development - The humanoid robot has undergone significant technology iterations, improving performance metrics by 2-3 times with each generation [7]. - Current hardware design limitations necessitate further software and hardware iterations for large-scale applications [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies involved Core Insights - The National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) signed by US President Trump on February 21, 2025, aims to promote foreign investment while safeguarding national security interests, particularly concerning China [8][9] - The NSPM does not impose new restrictions on the investability of Chinese securities for US investors but highlights areas of potential policy uncertainty and increased portfolio flow restrictions [7][9] - US-China tensions are expected to resurface, especially as investor concerns regarding US tariffs have moderated recently [7][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of implementing strong macro policy stimulus to support domestic growth and drive sustainable equity gains [7][20] Summary by Sections What's Happened - The NSPM outlines measures to facilitate investments from allied nations while countering evolving threats associated with foreign investment [8] - The memorandum directs government agencies to work on regulatory processes related to foreign investments [8] What's New & What to Watch - The NSPM builds on previous actions taken by President Trump to protect American innovation [9] - It highlights potential areas for increased restrictions on US outbound investments into China, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and artificial intelligence [9][10] Investment Implications - The report indicates that while immediate legal consequences from the NSPM may not arise, it underscores the potential for rising US-China tensions, which could negatively impact Chinese equity performance [20] - The Chinese A-share market is expected to react more favorably to domestic policy stimulus compared to external policy risks [20][21] - The report forecasts that A shares may outperform H shares in the coming months, driven by domestic policy support and less sensitivity to external factors [21][34]