7 February 2025 Asia Tech Hardware Asia Tech Hardware: DeepSeek, Tariff... 4Q24 AI names earnings preview Alex Wang, CFA +852 2918 5703 alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com Shirley Yang, CFA +852 2918 5303 shirley.yang@bernsteinsg.com The recent sentiment correction in the AI supply chain comes sooner than we expected for 2H25 (sector outlook). This note discusses the implications of DeepSeek and the U.S. tariff on the supply chain and previews the 4Q24 earnings (late Feb to early Mar) for AI names. We think the DeepS ...

所以我们在这个策略上其实是会给苹果一个很好的一个启发同时的话对国产安卓链的我们认为也是类似一个启发国产安卓前期其实也在观望到底对于大模型的战略我们自己的判断是偏向观望到底该要不要全身心的投入比如说要自研大模型 因为你要跟第三方合作的话的话这只是一个未来AI手机战略的角度来讲啊有种是一个灵魂的味道那现在因为第四个开源我们认为他们对于国产安卓手机厂商其实也是一个很大的一个争分嗯从这个位置上来看嗯整个按整个整个手机链条吧 因为现在国补大家也应该假期体验也能感染到其实补贴的力度和线上刚刚他只是那么直观尤其在线下又会有花样的一些补贴可能有一些不在6000块钱之内的手机甚至更高价格起价近7000块的在线下当然能享受到很多的一个补贴所以上周大家应该也能看到一些数据啊这个最最不好意思就是可能苹果同比大概有30%的增长 安卓这边可能有50%到70%左右的一个增长这个是补贴带来的一些刺激那以苹果连来讲的话我们前期一直说的一些股票像建议关注的莱斯科技 戈尔股份 瑞神科技包括鹏鼎 包括林毅 包括顺羽我们都是非常好的一个方向当然安卓这边是小米小米的话最近尤其是海外的投资人关注度也很高也问最新的一些看法 我们认为大背景还是蛮好的因为唯一 ...

人收到本次会议相关通知或参加本次会议而视其为客户本次会议内容不构成任何投资建议对此作出的任何投资决策与国海证券、国海证券员工或者关联机构无关本次会议只是转发国海证券已发布研究报告的部分观点以反映国海证券研究人员于发布完整报告当日的判断相关内容请以研究所已公开发布报告为准 会议严禁录音或转发任何人不得对本次会议的任何内容进行发布复制编辑改编转载播放展示或以其他任何方式非法使用本次会议的部分或者全部内容否则将承担相应的法律责任国海证券就此保留一切法律权利在任何情况下国海证券及其员工对使用本次会议信息或内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责收藏有风险投资需谨慎 好的各位投资朋友各位领导们大家下午好欢迎参加本次的一个电话会议最近District它就通过一些征流还有一些MOE的一些手段把一些更小的一个模型实现和一些大模型基本一样的一个效果那么未来这其实对我们车端的一些自驾模型还有一些大模型其实也是有非常好的一个接近的意义的可能通过District这一套的一些MOE方法或者征流方法之类的可能就会对一些对车端的一个算力还有一些内存可能会稍微有点需求稍微有点降低 那么的话我们先给他稍微讲一下特斯拉他的一些技术之类的然后去给大 ...

右边的右边如果我们看粉色和灰色呢就是说标普500的信息技术的市值占比呢往往也跟随着他的资本开支占比其实就是有一轮新的革命浪潮来了那他往往的就是就会成为一个领导的板块A股呢基本也是这个特征 各位尊敬的投资者大家新年好再次拜个年然后也祝大家开工大吉然后周末 市场的关注的焦点都在AI上我们这期也讨论AI但是得出的结论可能跟主流的不太一样就是AI重要但是他应该是一个基本面上比较重要的事件但是他是不是投资上唯一的答案我们认为不是我们来讲几个点第一个是市场的特征就是过去的这三天我们发生了什么第一个就是说肯定是小盘成长风格加上TMT名称 这是现在市场情绪的一个就是反映的特征那如果从交易的结构来讲很多会问外资有没有回来那如果根据我们测算的北上资金的数据你喝出来的数据确实是有明显的回流的买的板块也跟很多科技相关但不单只是有天文铁然后第二个就是 我们最新的这篇专题今天早上十点钟我们没开讲的这篇专题上讲的就是一般节后啊特别是在前期就是大家卸掉杠杆之后因为这个放假期间时间比较长嘛很多两人会卸掉杠杆但长假回来之后呢大家会把这个就重新的加回来在这个期间的时候呢两人的回补往往也会带来这种偏科技偏主题的这种行情他形成了一个共振啊那当然了你 ...

Quick Take: Humanoid Robots – What to expect from Figure AI in 29 days Jay Huang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5746 jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com QUICK TAKE 6 February 2025 Asian Industrial Technology Dien Wang, Ph.D. +852 2918 5743 dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and other important information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website. First Published: 06 Feb 2025 07:45 UTC Completion Date: 06 Feb 2025 07:45 UTC www.be ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Greater China Technology Semiconductors [85][88] - **Analyst Coverage**: Morgan Stanley's equity analysts covering the semiconductor sector in Asia Pacific include Charlie Chan, Daniel Yen, Daisy Dai, and Duan Liu [1][85]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Impact of DeepSeek on Technology**: The conference discussed how DeepSeek is expected to influence the technology landscape, particularly in AI and supply chain management [6][11]. - **Capex Growth Expectations**: A projected 29% growth in capital expenditures (capex) for 2025 was highlighted, driven by major players in the cloud sector including Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and others [19][20]. - **NVIDIA Capex Growth**: Analysts noted differing assumptions regarding NVIDIA's capex growth for 2025, with various companies in the semiconductor supply chain expected to experience varying levels of growth [22]. - **Cloud Semiconductor Preferences**: The report recommended a preference for Montage Technology over Aspeed Technology based on earnings revision breadth and year-over-year share price performance [24][25]. - **Driver ICs Market Outlook**: The market leader in driver integrated circuits (ICs) is expected to outperform, with a healthy level of total AMOLED smartphone market share anticipated for Q1 2024 [27]. Risks and Valuation Methodology - **Valuation Methodology**: The valuation for Aspeed Technology and Montage Technology is based on a residual income model, with key assumptions including medium-term growth rates of 15.8% and 13.7% respectively [29][31]. - **Risks to Growth**: Upside risks include stronger cloud demand and faster-than-expected technology migration, while downside risks involve softening cloud demand and intensified competition from US peers [31][31]. Additional Important Information - **Investment Ratings**: The report includes various investment ratings for companies within the semiconductor sector, with a significant number rated as Overweight (O) [85][87]. - **Analyst Certifications**: Analysts certified that their views on the companies discussed are accurately expressed and have not received compensation for specific recommendations [36]. - **Disclosure of Conflicts**: Morgan Stanley disclosed potential conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with companies covered in the research [2][37]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the semiconductor industry dynamics and investment outlook.

各位投资人晚上好我是中金公司科技硬件组分析师温含静欢迎大家在每周日的晚上8点半来参加我们的电子决定会议今天的会议是我们这个系列的第102期也是龙年的开年的第一期在这里也提前预祝大家开工大吉我们这周的话会把视角放在美股公司的业绩上 各位投资人其实也可以看到在春节期间DeepSeek它的MAU的持续增长引发了市场上对AI包括云端和端测的一些前景的关注我们也看到了说相关的公司一些股价是有一些比较大的变动所以我们这次也是从上一周苹果、高通、ARM还有AMD等等这样一些披露了业绩的公司 那从这个视角呢呃去来展望一下就是说美股的端测AI公司从业绩的角度来看他们发生了什么样的变化以及给后续的指引那从这个视角来展望后续端测AI的发展节奏那另外呢上一周的时候四大云厂商也是随业绩披露了新的资本开支规划引发了市场的关注大家也比较关心在deepseek这样的一个算力平权的背景之下呢那云厂商在后续的这个AI的投入上是有什么样的一些变化和展望 那我们今天的会议会分成三个部分首先先请士文老师向各位投资人汇报一下临场商资本开支这一块我们的一些基本的观点和展望那后续陈寗老师和佳彤老师会从我们刚提到的几家端测AI的美股公司的业绩的视角再去进行一 ...

5 February 2025 Asia Software Technologies and China SMID Internet China Software + AI: China AI after DeepSeek...where China AI heads now, winners/losers and global learnings In this note, we look at the rise of DeepSeek from a China angle. DeepSeek is an outcome of the developments of China's AI ecosystem rather than a sudden exception or miracle. This context is important for predicting what's next for China AI and provides further color on the global readacross around how the DeepSeek approach might far ...

KEY THOUGHTS AFTER CALLS WITH MANAGEMENT • Another Year of Heavy Infra Investment. Rather uncharacteristically Google guided to capex spending — $75B in 2025, a 43% increase on top of a 63% increase in 2024. Capex components remain the same — servers, data centers, networking equipment — and reflect the strong demand GOOGL is seeing from both external clients & internal constituents. The outlook is well above our $62B going in & consensus of $57B. We model capex step-ups through the year, but we recognize q ...

February 5, 2025 12:59 PM GMT Semiconductor Production Equipment | Japan Emergence of Flash Memory for AI Calculation and Implications for Japan's SPE Industry Floadia (unlisted) is developing inferential AI devices using flash memory. The charge of the memory cell can be adjusted across 128 stages. Accumulation is performed by the flow of word-line current through the cell, with multiply-accumulate (MAC) operations achieved through accumulation via the bit lines. We spotlight the development as one potenti ...