Summary of China Cosmetics Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **anti-aging beauty market** in China, which includes traditional anti-aging skincare, medical aesthetics (MA), and dermocosmetics. - The market is expected to grow at a **high single-digit CAGR** over the period from 2025 to 2030, with medical aesthetics and dermocosmetics leading at **9%** and anti-aging skincare at **6%** [1][22]. Key Insights Market Penetration and Demographics - The current penetration of the MA market in China is low, estimated at **5%** for the core consumer group aged **20-60**, compared to **10%-20%** in developed markets. It is expected to rise to **8%** by **2030E**, supporting a **10% CAGR** for MA users [2][22]. - Anti-aging skincare is seeing earlier adoption among younger consumers, with approximately **40%** of this demographic engaging with the category, which is expected to drive further expansion [2][22]. Pricing Dynamics - More resilient pricing is anticipated from **2026E** due to stricter regulations and healthier competition, with limited supply tailwinds favoring recombinant collagen. The MA market has experienced sharp price reductions due to intense competition, but future pricing is expected to stabilize [3][22]. - Factors contributing to this stabilization include more accessible pricing in China and a narrower price gap with Korea following recent policy changes [3][22]. Company Recommendations - **Forest Cabin** is initiated with a **Buy** rating, expected to benefit from growth in oil-based anti-aging skincare, with a projected **48% sales CAGR** from **2022-2025E** and **32%/29% sales/NP CAGR** from **2025-2028E** [4][22]. - **Giant Biogene** is also rated **Buy** due to its integrated value chain from MA to dermocosmetics, enhancing R&D and brand recognition [4][22]. - **Proya** is viewed as a domestic leader in the anti-aging sector but is rated **Neutral** pending further evidence of the new management's execution track record [4][22]. Market Growth Projections - The overall anti-aging market in China is projected to grow from **RMB 214 billion** in **2024E** to **RMB 398 billion** by **2030E**, reflecting a **CAGR of 8%** [20][22]. - Medical aesthetics is expected to contribute significantly to this growth, with a **10.3% volume CAGR** over the same period, despite ongoing pricing pressures in certain categories [17][22]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with larger sales exposure to growth segments, stronger market positions, and better operational execution, including R&D capabilities [10][22]. - The anti-aging skincare segment is projected to see a shift towards functionalities beyond basic moisturizing, with penetration expected to increase from **25.6% to 29.0%** from **2025 to 2030E** [19][22]. Conclusion - The anti-aging beauty market in China presents significant growth opportunities driven by demographic shifts, evolving consumer perceptions, and technological advancements. Companies like Forest Cabin and Giant Biogene are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, while pricing dynamics and market penetration will play crucial roles in shaping the competitive landscape.

证券研究报告 大消费行业周报 上游板块受资金青睐， 关注刚性内需细分 平安证券研究所大消费团队 证券分析师： 胡琼方S1060524010002（证券投资咨询）邮箱：HUQIONGFANG722@pingan.com.cn 王源S1060524010001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGYUAN468@pingan.com.cn 王萌S1060522030001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 张晋溢S1060521030001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 王星云S1060523100001（证券投资咨询）邮箱：WANGXINGYUN937@pingan.com.cn 2026年3月1日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 钢铁 有色金属 基础化工 煤炭 电力及公用事业 建筑 石油石化 国防军工 通信 建材 综合金融 电子 机械 农林牧渔 交通运输 综合 纺织服装 电力设备及新能源 轻工制造 计算机 沪深300 房地产 商贸零售 汽车 医药 家电 银行 非银 ...

商贸零售 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《马年春节消费稳健恢复，老铺黄金 宣 布 2 月 底 调 价 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.2.23 投资主线一（黄金珠宝）：关注具备差异化产品力和消费者洞察力的黄金珠宝品 牌，重点推荐潮宏基、老铺黄金、周大福等，受益标的周生生等； 投资主线二（线下零售）：关注顺应趋势变革探索的线下零售企业和 AI 赋能跨 境电商龙头，重点推荐永辉超市、爱婴室、吉宏股份、赛维时代等； 投资主线三（化妆品）：关注满足情绪价值和安全成分创新的国货品牌，重点推 荐毛戈平、珀莱雅、上美股份、巨子生物、润本股份，受益标的林清轩等； 投资主线四（医美）：关注差异化医美产品厂商和持续并购扩张的连锁医美机构， 重点推荐美丽田园医疗健康、爱美客、科笛-B、朗姿股份等。 《美团拟收购叮咚买菜，打造即时零 售供应链优势—行业周报》-2026.2.8 《功效护肤品牌 HBN 母公司护家科 技递表港交所—行业周报》-2 ...

2026 年 2 月 26 日 招银国际环球市场 | 策略报告 | 行业观察 春节消费观察 Market Strategy - 景气度符合预期，品类分化持续 马年春节期间，在为期九天的超长假期及节前九部委联合政策推动下，消费市 场得到一定提振。我们认为，整体趋势符合预期，结构上延续了物质消费与服 务消费分化、以"悦己"为代表的情绪型消费更具韧性等特征。从我们跟踪的 重点板块来看：1）旅游：整体旅游消费增长具备韧性且符合市场预期，"长途 游"和"家庭化"是关键词；2）线下消费：全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售 额及重点步行街（商圈）营业额增速环比及同比均有所提振；3）线上消费：由 于品牌在春节期间的营销投放力度显著弱于 618、双 11 等大型电商促销节点， 整体销售表现相对平淡。 线上消费：品牌营销投放力度显著弱于 618 和双 11，故销售表现平淡。 1）美妆护肤：根据蝉妈妈数据，2026 年春节假期期间，重点品牌在抖音 平台的合计销售额区间从去年的 2.12 亿-3.48 亿元上升至今年的 2.50 亿- 3.78 亿元，同比增速约为 12.0%（图 2）；若以区间中位数计算日均销售 额，同比-0.4%，基 ...

Group 1: Real Estate and Construction - The real estate market continues to show signs of bottoming out, with a weak performance in new home sales during the Spring Festival period, reflecting poor supply and demand dynamics [3][9][12] - The land market has seen a significant decline in both supply and demand, with total land area launched in January 2026 down 16% year-on-year, and total land transaction value down 39% [11][12] - Policy measures such as the reduction of the value-added tax on second-hand housing and the lowering of minimum down payments for commercial properties indicate a generally accommodative policy environment [3][12] Group 2: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The pig price is under pressure post-holiday due to the end of stocking and limited weight reduction, with the average price of pigs at 11.66 yuan/kg as of February 13, 2026, down 0.40 yuan/kg week-on-week [4][13] - The supply side shows a slight decrease in the average weight of pigs being marketed, indicating ongoing pressure from large pigs and structural pricing risks [13][14] - The overall market sentiment remains weak, with expectations of a seasonal decline in demand in the weeks following the holiday [14] Group 3: Retail and Consumer Services - The retail sector is experiencing a steady recovery in consumption, with payment transactions on the eve of the Spring Festival increasing by 21.64% compared to the previous year [5][19] - Key retail and catering enterprises reported an average daily sales increase of 8.6% during the first four days of the holiday compared to the same period in 2025 [19][25] - Investment recommendations focus on high-quality companies in the consumer sector, particularly those in gold and jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [26] Group 4: Pharmaceuticals - The company has entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with GSK for two siRNA pipeline products, with potential total transaction value reaching up to $1 billion [6][28] - Revenue forecasts for the company are maintained at 143 million, 169 million, and 201 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a downward adjustment in net profit estimates [6][28] - The collaboration with GSK highlights the company's growing recognition in the small nucleic acid drug development field, paving the way for future global partnerships [28][29]

Summary of the Aesthetic Medicine Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The aesthetic medicine industry is projected to see a revenue growth of 7% year-on-year in early 2024, with a customer traffic increase of approximately 10%, although the average transaction price is expected to decline by 3%-4% [2][3][21]. - Non-surgical light aesthetic projects account for 70% of the market, with photonic skin treatments making up 45% and non-invasive injection types 25% [2][5]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Product Performance**: - Recombinant collagen products, such as the Jingbo Weimei series, showed significant growth, with a 109% increase in January and an expected 60% in February [2][6]. - New products in the "童颜水光" (youthful water light) category and composite kinetic products also demonstrated strong growth [2][6]. - **Pricing Trends**: - Sales of the Weimei series are increasing, but prices are declining, particularly for the 4 mg model, which has seen a price drop of 30% [2][6]. - The average price decline is attributed to bundled sales strategies, leading to a 20%-30% decrease in average transaction prices [6][7]. - **OEM Collaboration**: - The rise of OEM collaboration is noted, with the group partnering with Jingbo to customize 8 mg products, reducing procurement costs and allowing flexible pricing strategies [2][8]. - The procurement cost for customized products is approximately 700 to 800 yuan, with a retail price set between 8,800 and 8,900 yuan [7][8]. - **Market Dynamics**: - The market is seeing a shift with pharmaceutical companies entering the aesthetic medicine field, leveraging their R&D and branding advantages, but facing challenges in adapting to the fast-changing market and consumer needs [4][15][16]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Behavior**: - Customer traffic during the Spring Festival showed a significant increase, particularly in first-tier cities, with some hospitals reporting appointment rates reaching 100% post-holiday [3][4]. - **Product Innovations**: - New products in the youthful water light category are being introduced with lower concentrations to make them more affordable, thus expanding the consumer base [9][10]. - **Future Trends**: - The aesthetic medicine industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of 8%-10% in 2026, driven by the introduction of new technologies and products, despite ongoing regulatory scrutiny [21]. - **Sales Team Effectiveness**: - Companies like Jinbo have developed strong sales teams that maintain good relationships with institutions and media, enhancing their competitive edge [17]. - **Emerging Products**: - The introduction of PDRN materials is anticipated to create a market potential of around 5 billion yuan, with several companies, including Lepu, working towards obtaining necessary certifications [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the aesthetic medicine industry, highlighting growth trends, pricing strategies, and market dynamics.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the consumer sector, particularly highlighting the potential in experience and emotional consumption, domestic travel, and AI technology products [7]. Core Insights - The report indicates a strong recovery in consumer spending during the Spring Festival, with key retail and catering enterprises showing an average daily sales increase of 8.6% compared to the same period last year [10]. - The report emphasizes the growth in experience consumption driven by travel and leisure activities, with significant increases in hotel occupancy and average daily rates during the holiday period [27]. - The report identifies structural opportunities in the market, particularly in AI technology consumption, emotional value products, and the rise of domestic brands [5]. Summary by Sections Retail Consumption - Retail sales during the Spring Festival showed a notable recovery, with a 8.6% increase in daily sales compared to the previous year, driven by improved consumer sentiment and a more active lower-tier market [10][12]. - Specific regions such as Hubei (+12%), Guangxi (+15%), and Nanjing (+17%) experienced rapid growth in consumption [2]. Domestic Travel - The report highlights a record high in cross-regional travel during the Spring Festival, with an estimated 3.1 billion daily movements, reflecting a 6.6% year-on-year increase [14]. - Key tourist destinations saw significant visitor numbers, with hotels experiencing a rise in both occupancy rates and average daily rates, indicating a robust recovery in the hospitality sector [27][19]. Experience Consumption - Experience consumption, particularly in travel and dining, has rebounded strongly, with restaurants like Haidilao reporting a 10% increase in customer flow during the holiday [33]. - Emotional consumption products, such as toys and scented items, gained popularity, with sales of pet clothing increasing by 116% during the holiday season [11]. AI Technology Consumption - The report notes a surge in sales of smart wearable devices, with a 19.7% increase in sales, and smart glasses seeing a growth of 250% [11]. - The introduction of new products under the "old for new" policy is expected to drive further growth in the AI technology sector [11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Pop Mart, Haidilao, and Midea Group, focusing on emotional and experience consumption, domestic brand growth, and AI technology [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a steady recovery in consumer spending during the Spring Festival, with significant increases in payment transactions and retail sales compared to the previous year [4][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality companies in high-growth sectors driven by emotional consumption themes [7][35] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The Spring Festival saw a robust recovery in social consumption, with payment transactions on New Year's Eve reaching 4.931 billion, a 21.64% increase from the previous year [4][26] - Key regions like Hainan and cities such as Tianjin and Zhenjiang showed strong performance in retail and dining, with Hainan's duty-free shopping amounting to 1.03 billion yuan, up 20.9% year-on-year [4][27] - Domestic travel orders surged by 60%, and outbound travel orders increased by over 180% during the holiday period [4][26] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end gold and fashion jewelry brands, recommending companies like Laopai Gold and Chaohongji for their differentiated product offerings [7][35] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize retail companies adapting to trends and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [7][35] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands that cater to emotional value and innovative safe ingredients, recommending brands like Maogeping and Proya [7][35] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical beauty institutions, recommending companies like Meilitiantian Medical Health and Aimeike [7][35] Market Performance - The retail and social service indices reported declines of 1.59% and 0.78% respectively during the week from February 9 to February 13, 2026 [6][15] - The report notes that the education sector saw the highest growth among sub-sectors, while the watch and jewelry sector led the year-to-date performance with an 11.29% increase [6][18] Company Highlights - Laopai Gold reported a significant revenue increase of 250.9% in the first half of FY2025, driven by strong consumer demand and brand expansion [37] - Chaohongji is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 125% to 175% in FY2025, supported by its differentiated product strategy [37] - Maogeping and Proya are highlighted for their strong performance in the beauty sector, with Maogeping achieving a revenue increase of 31.3% in FY2025 [37]

社会服务 2026 年 02 月 22 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 社会服务 沪深300 相关研究报告 | 《Spotify2026Q1 指引乐观，海南高端 | | --- | | 酒 旅 消 费 势 头 强 劲 — 行 业 周 报 》 | | -2026.2.15 | | 《国产 AI 应用访问量攀升，关注卡位 | | 瘦 身 需 求 产 品 潜 力 — 行 业 周 报 》 | | -2026.2.1 | | 《锅圈开启"四店齐发"布局，茶饮 | | 龙头强者恒强 — 行业周报》 | | -2026.1.25 | 春节海南高端消费保持快增，iphone 17 Pro Max、黄 金等品类二手交易持续升温 ——行业周报 | 初敏（分析师） | 李睿娴（分析师） | 程婧雅（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | chumin@kysec.cn | liruixian@kysec.cn | chengjingya@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080008 | 证书 ...

Group 1 - The year 2025 saw significant commercial events that reflect changing consumer expectations and corporate accountability [2] - Companies faced backlash for safety and quality issues, highlighting the need for improved internal processes and transparency [3][4][8][10][11][12][19] - The shift in consumer power emphasizes the importance of brands respecting public sentiment and adapting to a more transparent market environment [21][22] Group 2 - 吉祥航空 faced criticism for distributing expired snacks, revealing serious lapses in food safety protocols and poor crisis management [3][4] - 千禾's "zero-additive" soy sauce controversy raised questions about product labeling and consumer trust, leading to a re-evaluation of marketing strategies [5][6][7] - The charging battery industry experienced a safety crisis with 罗马仕 recalling over 490,000 units due to fire risks, contrasting with 安克创新's swift response [8][9] - 白象's "half bag" noodle marketing was criticized for misleading consumers about product quantity, resulting in a rebranding effort [9][10] - 华熙生物 and 巨子生物 engaged in a public dispute over product claims, damaging both brands' reputations in the competitive beauty market [10][11] - 爱康国宾 faced a public relations disaster after a client revealed a serious misdiagnosis, leading to widespread criticism of the commercial health screening industry [11][12] - 理想汽车's marketing stunt involving a crash test video backfired, leading to public skepticism and a necessary apology [12][13][14] - 桃李面包's controversial advertising campaign resulted in a public backlash, but the company's transparent response turned the situation into a positive PR opportunity [15][16] - 西贝's struggle with public perception regarding the use of pre-prepared ingredients led to significant operational changes and store closures [17][18] - 始祖鸟's environmentally insensitive marketing stunt sparked outrage among its core audience, prompting a public apology and highlighting the importance of brand values [19][20]