交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 2026 年 2 月 27 日 医药行业周报 ASCO GU 大会召开在即，板块波动中持续看好低估创新标的 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源： FactSet 2/25 6/25 10/25 2/26 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 行业表现 恒生指数 丁政宁 Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1834 诸葛乐懿 Gloria.Zhuge@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1845 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 评级 | | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY26E | | | FY27E FY26E FY27E FY26E FY27E FY26E | | | | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - Hong Kong is accelerating its listing system reforms to attract more new economy enterprises to go public [1][6] - The Financial Secretary, Paul Chan, announced plans to revise the "dual-class share" listing requirements in the first quarter, providing more flexibility for biotech and specialized technology companies [2][7] - Recent market conditions show the Hang Seng Index has dropped over 4.5% since the end of January, but industry experts remain optimistic about future performance supported by resilient capital flows and favorable fundamentals in AI and new economy sectors [1][11] Group 2 - The revision of "dual-class share" requirements is expected to attract more Chinese concept stocks back to Hong Kong, with Goldman Sachs estimating that 27 such stocks could return, totaling over HKD 1.4 trillion in market value [2][5] - UBS predicts that if these Chinese concept stocks return, the average daily trading volume in Hong Kong could increase by HKD 19 billion, boosting the exchange's revenue and net profit by 4%-5% and 7%, respectively [2][5] - The current listing rules require a high market capitalization for "dual-class share" companies, which poses challenges for many smaller companies looking to enter the Hong Kong market [5] Group 3 - The Hong Kong government is emphasizing the strategic role of the technology sector in the capital market, signaling further reforms to attract new economy enterprises [6][8] - The government has launched a HKD 10 billion "Innovation and Technology Industry Guidance Fund" focusing on investments in life sciences, AI, and robotics [8] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is considering allowing more types of companies to submit listing applications confidentially, enhancing its competitive edge in the global capital market [8] Group 4 - Despite the announcement of significant reforms, the Hong Kong stock market has continued to decline, with the Hang Seng Index showing mixed performance recently [9][10] - Recent outflows of southbound funds have been noted, with nearly HKD 4.5 billion sold in two consecutive trading days, contrasting with previous inflows [10] - Analysts believe that the current market adjustments are temporary and that the Hang Seng Technology Index may see a rebound as investor sentiment improves [12]

Company Overview - Legend Biotech (LEGN) is rated as a "Buy" with a target price of $46.41, representing a potential upside of 138% from the current price of $19.5[5] - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2026, driven by the sales growth of its product CARVYKTI[5] Financial Performance - CARVYKTI generated $1.887 billion in revenue for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 95.9%[10] - The company forecasts total revenue of $1.412 billion for 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 39.7%[9] - Legend Biotech's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to turn positive at $0.28 in 2026, after losses in previous years[9] Production Capacity - The company has four global production facilities, with an expected annual capacity of 10,000 doses upon FDA approval in Q1 2026[5] - A $200 million investment is planned to expand the production capacity in Ghent, Belgium, aiming for 20,000 doses by 2028[5] Competitive Landscape - Legend Biotech's CART-4 trial includes a higher percentage of more severe patients compared to Johnson & Johnson's MajesTEC-3 trial, indicating a competitive edge in clinical data[6] Valuation Metrics - A discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis assumes a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10% and a perpetual growth rate of 0%, leading to a target price of $46.41[8]

最近，随着美股13F文件的披露，多家私募机构2025Q4最新调仓情况浮出水面。之前的文章，证星研究院已经分享了段永平和景林最新美 股的持仓动向。 大家可以回顾文章： 1.段永平，加仓巨头超1110% 2.景林最新出手加仓了！ 今天的文章，我们最后再来梳理一下高瓴HHLR、喜马拉雅（李录）、伯克希尔，这三家机构Q4美股的持仓动向。 （HHLR25Q4前十大持仓） 从调仓动向来看，HHLR在第四季度显著加大了对互联网电商板块的配置。拼多多与阿里巴巴构成持仓的"双核心"，成为基金持仓的大 头。 具体而言，第一大重仓股拼多多获得HHLR大幅增持，持仓市值攀升至12.16亿美元，环比增幅达24.77%，持仓占比也从上个季度的 27.76%提升至39.17%，接近总持仓的四成。 第二大重仓股阿里的增持力度也十分强劲，持仓市值达7.96亿美元，环比增幅高达65.07%，持仓占比从14.37%跃升至25.65%。 以下为主要内容： 一、高瓴资本： 根据文件披露，高瓴旗下专注二级市场投资的HHLR基金，2025年第四季度末持仓总市值为31.04亿美元，上一季度少24%。整体持仓展现 出"聚焦核心、收缩边缘"的投资策略。 其中， ...

在2025年12月举行的美国血液学会（ASH）年会上，Anitocabtagene autoleucel（anito-cel）在重度预处 理的R/R MM患者中展现出令人振奋的疗效：客观缓解率（ORR）高达96%，完全缓解（CR）或严格完 全缓解（sCR）率达到74%，且缓解持久性良好，安全性可控。这项研究结果不仅为R/R MM患者带来 了新的治疗选择，也进一步巩固了BCMA CAR T疗法在晚期骨髓瘤治疗中的核心地位。 21世纪经济报道记者季媛媛 2月23日，吉利德科学宣布与其长期合作伙伴Arcellx达成最终协议，将以每股115美元现金、总股权价值 约78亿美元的价格收购后者。消息一出，Arcellx盘前股价应声暴涨近80%。 这一收购背后被认为是吉利德旗下Kite Pharma在细胞治疗领域布下的一枚重子。根据协议条款，吉利 德将获得Arcellx的全部控股权，但故事并未结束。Arcellx的股东未来还有机会获得每股5美元的或有价 值权（CVR），而触发条件是核心资产anito-cel在上市后至2029年底，全球累计净销售额达到至少60亿 美元 。 这一"对赌"条款显示了吉利德对anito-cel成为重 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gilead Sciences has announced a $7.8 billion acquisition of Arcellx, marking its largest acquisition since 2020, as part of its strategy to expand beyond HIV and liver disease treatments [2][11] Transaction Details - The acquisition includes a cash offer of $115 per share for Arcellx, with an additional $5 per share contingent on achieving specific sales targets, representing a 68% premium over Arcellx's recent average share price [2][5] - The deal is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals [8] - Gilead currently owns approximately 11.5% of Arcellx's outstanding stock, and the acquisition will eliminate up to $1.5 billion in potential milestone payments [9] Product and Market Context - The acquisition provides Gilead full control of anito-cel, an investigational CAR-T therapy for multiple myeloma, which is currently under FDA review as a fourth-line treatment option [3][5] - Analysts believe anito-cel could become a leading treatment for multiple myeloma, potentially generating multi-billion-dollar sales for Gilead [4][11] - Clinical trials have shown that anito-cel delivers strong and lasting responses, supporting Gilead's push for FDA approval [5] Strategic Implications - Gilead's CEO emphasized the strategic importance of the acquisition, aiming to maximize anito-cel's potential and position it as a foundational treatment for multiple myeloma [7][12] - The acquisition aligns with Gilead's broader growth strategy, which includes diversifying its portfolio beyond traditional areas [11] - Gilead gains proprietary technology and a platform for future cell therapies, strengthening its oncology and advanced therapeutics pipeline [12][13]

Core Insights - The latest holdings of top investment firms reveal a consensus on Pinduoduo and Google as major investments, with significant increases in their positions by several firms [1][2]. Group 1: Segment Analysis - **H&H Investment (Duang Yongping)**: - Total holdings exceed $17.49 billion (approximately 120.8 billion RMB) with 14 stocks. Major increases in positions for Berkshire, Nvidia, Pinduoduo, Google C, and Microsoft, while reducing Apple, Occidental Petroleum, Alibaba, Disney, and ASML [3][4]. - New investments in AI-related stocks include CoreWeave, Credo Technology, and Tempus AI, with respective holdings of 0.12%, 0.12%, and 0.04% [3]. - **Jinglin Asset**: - Total holdings valued at $4.045 billion, with Google becoming the largest position, replacing Meta. Significant reduction in Nvidia holdings by over 60% [5][6]. - **Himalaya Capital (Li Lu)**: - Total holdings of $3.57 billion, with a highly concentrated portfolio where the top five stocks account for 95.96%. Google is the largest holding at 43.86% [7][8]. - **Hillhouse Capital (HHLR)**: - Total holdings around $3.104 billion, focusing heavily on Chinese stocks, with Pinduoduo making up 39.17% of the portfolio [9][10]. - **Oriental Harbor (Dan Bin)**: - Total holdings of $1.316 billion, with significant increases in Google A and Nvidia, while reducing positions in several other stocks [11][12]. - **Gaoyi Asset**: - Total holdings of $683 million, with a concentrated portfolio where Huazhu and Pinduoduo account for 68.25% [13][14].

Core Insights - HHLR Advisors, a fund management platform under Hillhouse Capital, reported its US stock holdings as of the end of Q4 2025, with a significant focus on Chinese concept stocks, which accounted for 92% of its portfolio [1][2]. Group 1: Holdings Overview - HHLR holds a total of 33 US-listed companies, with its top ten holdings including Pinduoduo, Alibaba, BeiGene, Futu Holdings, Legend Biotech, Arrivent Biopharma, Beike, Webull Corp, Cytek Biosciences, and Clearwater Analytics, with seven of these being Chinese concept stocks [2][4]. - The market value of HHLR's holdings in Pinduoduo reached approximately $1.22 billion, with a total of 10.72 million shares, reflecting an increase of 2.13 million shares from the previous quarter [4][5]. - Alibaba's holdings increased from 3.29 million shares to 5.43 million shares, with the market value rising from $588 million to $796 million, making it the second-largest holding in HHLR's portfolio [7]. Group 2: Trading Activities - HHLR significantly increased its positions in Pinduoduo and Alibaba while reducing its holdings in Futu Holdings and Webull Corp, with Futu's shares decreasing by nearly 50% from 3.24 million to 1.63 million [5][7]. - The firm also completely exited positions in several companies, including NetEase, Baidu, Manbang Group, Donghai Group, and Bright Scholar [7]. - HHLR made a small purchase of Google shares, ending the quarter with 7,300 shares, while also acquiring 11,300 shares of TSMC, valued at approximately $3.43 million [8][10]. Group 3: Market Context - The increase in holdings of Pinduoduo and Alibaba aligns with similar moves by other major private equity firms, indicating a collective bullish sentiment towards these stocks despite Pinduoduo's revenue growth slowing to 9% year-over-year [5]. - The AI sector is highlighted as a key area of interest, with ongoing developments in various subfields, suggesting that companies in this space may present significant investment opportunities [8].

Core Viewpoint - Legend Biotech (NASDAQ:LEGN) is identified as one of the biotechnology stocks with significant upside potential, supported by favorable FDA guidance regarding approval endpoints for multiple myeloma treatments [1][2]. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - RBC Capital maintained an Outperform rating on Legend Biotech with a price target of $66, highlighting the FDA's draft guidance that supports the use of Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) negativity and complete response rate for expedited approval [1]. - Raymond James also reaffirmed its Outperform rating on Legend Biotech, setting a higher price target of $86, attributing its positive outlook to the same FDA guidance and emphasizing the importance of these endpoints in less aggressive forms of multiple myeloma [2]. Group 2: Company Overview - Legend Biotech is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative therapies, particularly in the area of cell therapy for serious diseases such as hematologic malignancies and solid tumors [3].

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent national procurement has been stable, with limited disruptions, and institutions are increasing their positions in innovative companies, maintaining a positive outlook on undervalued innovative targets [1][4] - The overall market sentiment has improved, driven by significant business development transactions, and the pharmaceutical sector is expected to continue its steady growth in 2026, despite potential short-term volatility [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.3% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 5.0%, ranking second among 12 industry indices [4][6] - Sub-sectors such as biopharmaceuticals and CXO both saw a growth of 7.4% [6] Institutional Holdings - Since Q4 2025, the proportion of domestic capital holding pharmaceutical stocks through Hong Kong Stock Connect has slightly decreased, while foreign capital holdings have increased [32] - As of February 10, 2026, domestic holdings were at 22.2%, down 0.2 percentage points, while foreign holdings rose to 39.7%, up 0.9 percentage points [32] Sales Performance - In 2025, China's pharmaceutical market sales decreased by 1% year-on-year, with public hospitals accounting for the largest market share at 10,977 billion RMB, down 2.1% [5] - Retail pharmacy sales reached 5,878 billion RMB, growing by 2.4%, with online pharmacies seeing a significant increase of 13.6% [5] National Procurement - The recent national procurement round had a high selection rate of 93%, with 1,020 products from 1,091 participating companies expected to be implemented by the end of March 2026 [5] - The procurement process has seen increased participation and a diverse range of selected products, ensuring stability in clinical demand [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on innovative drugs, particularly companies like Sanofi and Hengrui Medicine, which have rich catalysts and clear long-term growth logic [4] - It also suggests looking into CXO companies benefiting from high downstream demand and improving financing conditions, such as WuXi AppTec [4]