Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tongcheng Travel (0780.HK) [5] Core Insights - Tongcheng Travel reported a significant revenue growth of 51.3% year-on-year in Q3 2024, reaching 4.992 billion CNY, driven by strong performance in its core OTA business and vacation services [3] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2024 was 1.319 billion CNY, reflecting a 51.6% increase year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit was 910 million CNY, up 46.6% year-on-year [3] - The company continues to deepen its market penetration, particularly in lower-tier cities, with over 87% of registered users from non-first-tier cities [3] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue breakdown: accommodation booking revenue was 1.378 billion CNY (+22.2% YoY), transportation ticketing revenue was 2.027 billion CNY (+20.64% YoY), and other core OTA revenues were 609 million CNY (+23.7% YoY) [3] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 18.2%, slightly down by 0.6 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] - The company’s sales costs increased significantly by 117.55% year-on-year to 1.827 billion CNY, primarily due to rising costs in vacation service products and increased employee benefits [3] User Growth and Market Strategy - The average monthly paying users reached 46 million, a 5% increase year-on-year, while annual paying users totaled 232 million, up 3.4% year-on-year [3] - The report highlights the collaboration with Tencent and Alipay as a key factor in user growth, particularly in lower-tier markets [3] - The company aims to enhance its competitive advantage through mergers and acquisitions, expanding its presence in accommodation, vacation, and outbound travel sectors [3] Future Projections - The projected net profits for Tongcheng Travel are expected to be 1.942 billion CNY in 2024, 2.485 billion CNY in 2025, and 2.958 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20x, 16x, and 13x respectively [3][4]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - Q3 revenue slightly exceeded the upper guidance range, with profits surpassing expectations: Q3 revenue reached 4,991 million yuan, up 51.6% YoY, slightly exceeding the guidance range of 45-50% [2] - User subsidies narrowed, leading to significant improvement in sales expense ratio: Q3 gross margin was 63.4%, down 14.8 pct YoY, while sales expense ratio improved to 29.4%, down 9.1 pct YoY [2] - Transportation and accommodation businesses showed steady growth: Core OTA segment revenue increased by 21.6% YoY, with transportation ticketing and accommodation booking revenues reaching 2,027 million yuan and 1,378 million yuan, respectively, both hitting historical highs [3] - Monthly paying users reached a new historical high, with continued penetration in lower-tier markets: As of Q3 2024, annual paying users reached 232 million, up 3.4% YoY, with over 87% of registered users residing in non-tier-1 cities [3] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue and profit forecasts adjusted upward: Expected 2024-2026 net profit attributable to parent company adjusted to 2,093.75 million yuan, 2,648.42 million yuan, and 3,265.09 million yuan, respectively [4] - EPS and valuation metrics: 2024E EPS is 0.90 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 18.81x [1] - Key financial ratios: ROE expected to improve from 8.78% in 2023A to 12.70% in 2026E, with net profit margin projected to increase from 13.06% to 13.56% over the same period [14] Business Segments - Transportation ticketing and accommodation booking: Q3 revenue for transportation ticketing and accommodation booking grew by 20.6% and 22.2% YoY, respectively [3] - Vacation segment: Q3 vacation segment revenue reached 979 million yuan, exceeding the company's guidance of 900-950 million yuan [3] Market and User Metrics - User engagement: Q3 average monthly paying users reached 46 million, up 5.0% YoY, with transaction volume of 72.8 billion yuan, up 2.4% YoY [3] - Lower-tier market penetration: Approximately 70% of new paying users on the WeChat platform in Q3 came from non-tier-1 cities [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Tongcheng Travel with a target price of **HKD 25.8**, up from the previous target of HKD 23.1 [5][8] Core Views - **Revenue Growth**: Tongcheng Travel reported 3Q24 revenue of RMB 5 billion, a 51% YoY increase, slightly exceeding expectations of RMB 4.9 billion [1][2] - **Profitability**: Adjusted net profit for 3Q24 reached RMB 910 million, a 47% YoY increase, surpassing expectations by 10.2% [1][3] - **Outbound Travel**: Outbound hotel bookings and air ticket sales saw triple-digit growth, with international room nights up 130% YoY and international ticket volume up 110% YoY [2] - **User Value Focus**: The company shifted its strategy from user growth to maximizing user value, resulting in a 53% YoY increase in ARPU to RMB 70 [4] Revenue Breakdown - **Core OTA Business**: Revenue from core OTA business reached RMB 4 billion, a 22% YoY increase, driven by improved commission rates and strong outbound travel demand [2] - **Accommodation Business**: Revenue grew 22% YoY, exceeding expectations by 3%, with international room nights up 130% YoY [2] - **Transportation Business**: Revenue increased 22% YoY, surpassing expectations by 1.3%, supported by a 110% YoY growth in international ticket volume [2] Profitability and Cost Control - **Operating Profit**: Operating profit for 3Q24 was RMB 970 million, a 63% YoY increase, exceeding expectations by 26% [3] - **Cost Efficiency**: The company achieved significant cost control, with total expense ratio 4 percentage points lower than expected [3] - **Core OTA Profit**: Core OTA platform operating profit reached RMB 1.2 billion, 8.2% above expectations [3] User Metrics - **Monthly Active Paying Users**: Average monthly paying users reached 46.4 million, a 5% YoY increase [4] - **Annual Paying Users**: Annual paying users grew to 230 million, a 3.4% YoY increase [4] - **ARPU Growth**: ARPU increased to RMB 70, up 53% YoY, driven by improved marketing efficiency and cross-selling strategies [4] Financial Forecasts - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenue for 2024-2026 is RMB 17.3 billion, RMB 21.9 billion, and RMB 26.5 billion, respectively [5][12] - **Adjusted Net Profit Forecast**: Adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB 2.77 billion, RMB 3.67 billion, and RMB 4.51 billion, respectively [5][12] - **Valuation**: The target price of HKD 25.8 is based on a 15x PE multiple for 2025, reflecting a discount to the peer average of 19.5x [5][14] Peer Comparison - **Valuation Multiples**: Tongcheng Travel's 2025 PE multiple of 15x is lower than peers such as Booking (23.9x) and Airbnb (29.8x) [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 35.6% from the current price of HKD 17.70 [1][4][12]. Core Insights - The core OTA business is expected to grow faster than the industry average, with revenue projections of RMB 17.2 billion for 2024 and RMB 19.8 billion for 2025, reflecting growth rates of 19% and 16% respectively. The operating profit margin is anticipated to exceed 26%, leading to net profits of RMB 2.7 billion and RMB 3.4 billion for the respective years [1][2]. - The company reported a 51% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2024, reaching RMB 5 billion, which surpassed market expectations. The core OTA business revenue grew by 22%, driven by significant increases in both transportation and accommodation segments [2][3]. - The forecast for Q4 2024 anticipates a revenue increase of 29% to RMB 40.5 billion, with the core OTA segment expected to grow by 10% [2][9]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been slightly adjusted, with total revenue expected to be RMB 17.2 billion and RMB 19.8 billion respectively, reflecting growth rates of 44.2% and 15.7% [3]. - The adjusted operating profit margin is projected to improve to 16.3% for 2024 and 17.5% for 2025, with net profit margins expected to be 16.0% and 17.0% respectively [3][9]. - The company’s gross profit margin is forecasted to be 64.4% in 2024, slightly down from previous estimates, but still indicating strong profitability [3]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 22.58%, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 40.4 billion [6]. - The stock's 52-week high and low are HKD 22.30 and HKD 12.70 respectively, indicating significant volatility and potential for growth [6]. Summary of Earnings - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 9.1 billion in Q3 2024, a 47% increase year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 11% [2][3]. - The operational efficiency is improving, with marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue decreasing to 29%, which is better than the anticipated 33% [2]. Conclusion - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company, driven by strong growth in the core OTA business, improved operational efficiency, and favorable market conditions, supporting the "Buy" rating and the revised target price [1][4][12].

20 Nov 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) Travel demand remains resilient Tongcheng Travel (TC) reported 3Q24 results: total revenue was RMB5.0bn, up 51% YoY (2Q24: +48% YoY), 3% better than Bloomberg consensus estimates; adjusted net income was RMB910mn, up 47% YoY, 11% better than consensus. OPM of core OTA businesses improved to 31.1% in 3Q24 (3Q23: 25.2%), driven by optimization of marketing strategies. Booking volume growth of TC's transpo ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因依 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited 同程旅行控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：0780） 截至二零二四年九月三十日止三個月之業績公告 本公司董事會欣然公佈本集團截至二零二四年九月三十日止三個月的未經審核綜 合業績連同二零二三年同期的比較數字。 截至二零二四年九月三十日止三個月 • 收入由二零二三年第三季度的人民幣3,299.3百萬元同比增加51.3%至二零二 四年第三季度的人民幣4,991.5百萬元。 • 經調整EBITDA由二零二三年第三季度的人民幣870.0百萬元增加51.6%至二 零二四年第三季度的人民幣1,318.8百萬元。二零二四年第三季度的經調整 EBITDA利潤率持平於26.4%，二零二三年第三季度亦為26.4%。 • 經調整溢利淨額由二零二三年第三季度的人民幣620.6百萬元增加46.6%至二 零二四年第三季度的人民幣910.0百 ...

华福证券 包 研 旅游综合 2024 年 11 月 14 日 同程旅行（00780.HK） 下沉市场 OTA 龙头，深耕产业强化自有供应链 投资要点： 同程旅行是由同程和艺龙合并整合形成的一站式在线旅行平台，规模 位居国内前三，深耕下沉市场，强化自有供应链建设提升竞争优势。 在线旅行渗透率持续提升，开拓下沉市场和年轻用户增量： 旅游预订线上化进程持续加速推动在线旅游市场增长高于旅游大 盘，根据嘉世咨询数据，预计 2024 年我国在线旅游市场规模将达 2.2 万亿元/恢复至 2019 年同期的 120%；在线旅行用户线上渗透率 45.2%， 低于网约车（45.7%）、外卖（50.3%）、网络音乐（66.3%）等，对比来 看在线旅行线上渗透率仍有提升空间；由于上游资源整合&下游流量门 槛高，OTA 一超多强格局稳定，2021 年携程+去哪儿市场份额约 5 成、 领先 其他 OTA 平台 ，美 团、同 程旅 行、飞 猪市 场份额 分别 为 20.6%/14.8%/7.3%。 同程旅行深耕下沉市场错位竞争，大股东赋能流量&库存的基础上强 化自有流量渠道&供应链建设： 同程旅行重视下沉市场用户开拓，截止 2024Q2 ...

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited 同程旅行控股有限公司 (Incorporated in the Cayman Islands with limited liability) (於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司) Stock Code 股份代號：0780 MALIGAYANG BENVENUTO PAGDATING TERVETULOA VELKOMMEN WELKOM 欢 迎 ÜDVÖZLÖM BIENVENIDO 환영 ようこそ WELCOME ... BIENVENUE WILLKOMMEN BEM-VINDOS 2024 中期報告 INTERIM REPORT CONTENTS 目錄 2 CORPORATE INFORMATION 公司資料 6 KEY HIGHLIGHTS 摘要重點 11 BUSINESS REVIEW AND OUTLOOK 業務回顧與展望 16 MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS 管理層討論及分析 33 CORPORATE GOVERNANCE AND OTHER INFORMATION 企業管治及其他資料 84 R ...

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/旅游服务业 证券研究报告 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | 股票数据 | | | 09 [ Table_StockInfo 月 03 日收盘价（港元 ] ） | 15.02 | | 52 周股价波动（港元） | 12.38-22.55 | | 总股本 / 流通股本（百万股） | 2325/2325 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（亿港元） | 349/349 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《 OTA 行业龙头，多元场景加深下沉优势》 | | | 2024.04.10 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|-------|-------|--------| | 恒生指数对比 | 1M | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][15]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 8.112 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 48.8%. Adjusted EBITDA was 1.734 billion yuan, up 12.7%, and adjusted net profit was 1.215 billion yuan, an increase of 10.9% [3][6]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 64.8%, a decrease of 10.4 percentage points year-on-year. The adjusted profit margin was 15.0%, down 5.1 percentage points [3][6]. - The company's core OTA business segments, including transportation ticketing and accommodation booking, showed significant performance improvements, with transportation ticketing revenue growing by 16.6% year-on-year in Q2 2024 [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenues of 4.245 billion yuan, a 48.1% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit also growing by 10.9% [3][6]. - The total GMV for the first half of 2024 was 128.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.7% year-on-year increase, with a notable rise in user purchase frequency [6][8]. - The company expects Non-GAAP net profits of 2.697 billion yuan, 3.021 billion yuan, and 5.859 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 15-18 times for 2024 [6][9]. Business Segment Performance - The transportation ticketing segment generated 1.743 billion yuan in revenue in Q2 2024, driven by increased ticket volume and enhanced value-added services [6][8]. - Accommodation booking revenue reached 1.191 billion yuan in Q2 2024, benefiting from a significant expansion of hotel supply and optimized product structure [6][8]. - Other business segments saw a remarkable revenue increase of 87.3% year-on-year, totaling 592 million yuan in Q2 2024 [6][8]. User Metrics - As of June 30, 2024, the company had 228 million annual paying users, a 4.8% increase year-on-year, with a 29.9% growth in cumulative paying customers [6][8]. - The proportion of registered users from non-first-tier cities was approximately 87% as of Q2 2024 [6][8]. Valuation and Market Comparison - The company is valued at a reasonable range of 19.05 to 22.86 HKD per share based on a PE ratio of 15-18 times for 2024, considering its position as a leading OTA with strong growth momentum [6][9]. - Comparatively, the PE ratios for similar companies such as Ctrip and Meituan are 14.4 and 17.6 respectively, indicating a competitive market landscape [9].