交银国际研究 公司更新 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------------|----------| | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | | 港元 13.12 | 港元 23.00↓ | +75.3% | 同程旅行 (780 HK) 核心 OTA 收入增~20%，收入虽有下调，但下半年利润率将改善 | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 2 季度业绩：收入 42 亿元（人民币，下同），同比增 48%，与我 | | 们/彭博市场预期基本一致。其中，核心 OTA 业务收入增 23%（交通/住宿 | | +13%/17%），度假业务收入 7.2 亿元。调整后净利润 6.6 亿元，同比增 | | 11%，高于我们/彭博市场预期 5%/4%，对应净利率 15%，较去年同期的 | | 21%有所下降，因度假业务利润率较低及出境业务投入拖累。调整后营销 | | 费用同比增 35%，主要由于营销活动增加，但占收比环比稳定在 35%。 | | - ...

公司研究 两大股东赋能+自建供应链体系，助力公司疫后强劲复苏 ——同程旅行（0780.HK）投资价值分析报告 要点 公司盈利预测与估值简表 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|---------|--------|--------|--------|--------| | 指标 | | | | | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 6,585 | 11,896 | 17,336 | 20,355 | 23,369 | | 营业收入增长率 | -12.64% | 80.67% | 45.72% | 17.42% | 14.81% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | | | | | | 归母净利润增长率 | | NA NA | 22.35% | 28.64% | 18.80% | | EPS（元） | | | | | | | ROE（归属母公司)（摊薄） | -0.93% | 8.78% | 9.45% | 10.54% | 10.84% | | P/E | | NA 18 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 资料来源： ...

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [2] Core Views - The company is a leading player in China's online travel industry, focusing on lower-tier markets and leveraging innovative marketing strategies to capture post-pandemic recovery opportunities [2] - The online travel market is recovering strongly, with lower-tier markets being a significant growth driver [2] - The company benefits from its strategic partnerships with Tencent and Ctrip, which provide traffic and hotel inventory, respectively [2] - The company is actively expanding its traffic sources and building its own supply chain, including through acquisitions and international expansion [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be RMB 17.34 billion, RMB 20.36 billion, and RMB 23.37 billion, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is expected to be RMB 1.90 billion, RMB 2.45 billion, and RMB 2.91 billion, respectively [2] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated at 15x, 12x, and 10x, respectively [2] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company holds a 14.8% market share in China's online travel market, ranking third after Ctrip and Meituan [2] - The company's traffic is primarily sourced from Tencent's ecosystem, with over 80% of monthly active users coming from WeChat Mini Programs [2] - The company shares hotel inventory with Ctrip, which accounts for 60%-70% of its hotel supply [2] - The company is expanding its supply chain through acquisitions and technology solutions for small and medium-sized hotels in lower-tier cities [2] Industry Trends - China's online travel market is highly concentrated, with the top three players (Ctrip, Meituan, and the company) holding a combined market share of 71.7% [2] - The online travel market is expected to grow from RMB 1.8 trillion in 2019 to RMB 2.6 trillion by 2025, driven by increasing online penetration and lower-tier market growth [2] - Post-pandemic, there is a shift towards short-distance travel and tourism in lower-tier cities, which benefits the company's focus on these markets [2] Traffic and User Growth - The company's traffic from its own app increased from 4.0% to 4.7% between August 2023 and March 2024 [2] - The company is expanding its traffic sources by investing in platforms like Douyin and strengthening its independent app operations [2] - The company is also tapping into offline channels, such as music festivals and local travel opportunities, to capture new users [2] International Expansion - The company is accelerating its global supply chain layout, particularly in North America, through app development and offline store openings [2] - The company has launched a "Destination Global Plan" to expand its international presence, with partnerships in countries like South Korea, Singapore, and Hungary [2] - The company's international hotel bookings have fully recovered to 2019 levels, with a 330% year-on-year increase in international hotel room nights in 2023 [2] Valuation and Target Price - The target price for the company is set at HKD 16.71, representing a potential upside from the current price of HKD 13.58 [2] - The valuation is based on the company's strong position in China's lower-tier travel market, its self-built traffic channels, and its global supply chain layout [2] Key Catalysts for Stock Price - Short-term catalysts include the growth in travel demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, particularly in lower-tier cities [2] - Long-term catalysts include the company's international expansion and its ability to capture the growth in China's outbound tourism market [2]

同程旅行（0780.HK）2024 年二季报点评 主业彰显较强韧性，运营能力提升支撑增长 2024 年 08 月 22 日 ➢ 公司 Q2 业绩整体符合预期。24Q2 实现收入 42.5 亿元，同比增长 48.1%， 创下单季度收入规模历史新高；实现经调整净利润为 6.6 亿元，同比增长 10.9%； 经调整净利润率为 15.5%，同比-5.2pct；实现毛利润为 27.4 亿元，同比增长 26.9%；毛利率为 64.6%，同比-10.8pct；归母净利润为 43.4 亿元，同比增长 21.9%。经调和归母利润的差异主要受到 24Q2 汇兑亏损净额大幅低于 23Q2 所 致。 ➢ 分业务来看，核心 OTA 板块维持了较强的增长韧性。24Q2 交通业务实现 收入 17.4 亿元，同比增长 16.6%。其中，机票票量同比增长近 20%，表现优于 行业。住宿业务收入达 11.9 亿元，同比增长 12.8%。其中，酒店间夜量同比稳 步增长 10%，说明公司交叉销售的策略成效逐渐显现。国际业务维持高增，机票 /酒店分别同比增长 160%/140%，反映了国际业务的进展。其他业务实现收入 5.9 亿元，同比增长 87.3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.2 billion RMB for Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 49%. The core OTA business generated 3.2 billion RMB, up 23% year-on-year, aligning with expectations. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 430 million RMB, a 22% increase year-on-year, while adjusted net profit reached 660 million RMB, up 11% year-on-year [2][3]. - Strong demand for travel and international business expansion contributed to the core OTA business's revenue growth. The accommodation booking service generated 1.2 billion RMB, a 13% increase year-on-year, driven by increased accommodation demand and enhanced cross-selling strategies. The transportation booking service achieved 1.7 billion RMB, a 17% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high for quarterly revenue [2][3]. - The user base and purchase frequency continue to grow, with annual paid users reaching 230 million and cumulative service users at 1.86 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 4.8% and 29.9%, respectively. The average revenue per user (ARPU) is approximately 64 RMB, a 30% increase compared to 2019 [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 2.6 billion RMB, 3.5 billion RMB, and 4.2 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to adjusted P/E ratios of 16X, 12X, and 9X for the same years [4][3]. - Key financial metrics for 2024 include projected revenue of 17.1 billion RMB, a 44% growth rate, and an adjusted net profit of 2.7 billion RMB, reflecting a 21% increase [4][8]. - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was reported at 65%, a decrease of 11 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the integration of new offline vacation services and differences in the core OTA business model [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 18, representing a potential upside of 37% from the current price of HKD 13.12 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's 2Q24 revenue reached RMB 4.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48%, aligning with expectations. Adjusted net profit was RMB 660 million, exceeding market expectations by 4%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.5%, down 5.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the consolidation of vacation business [2]. - The core OTA segment showed steady growth, with a transaction volume of RMB 62.3 billion, up 4.4% year-on-year, driven by an increase in ARPPU. The average monthly paying users slightly increased by 0.7% to 42.5 million. Core OTA revenue was RMB 3.53 billion, a 23% year-on-year increase, with an operating profit margin of 24.3% [2]. - International business remains a strong growth driver, with international hotel night volume increasing by 140% and international ticket volume by 160% year-on-year in 2Q24. The company expects continued strong growth in international business, which currently accounts for less than 5% of total revenue [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue forecast for FY24E is adjusted to RMB 17.3 billion, with FY25E projected at RMB 20.1 billion. The adjusted net profit for FY24E is estimated at RMB 2.56 billion, increasing to RMB 3.02 billion in FY25E [3][6]. - The financial model indicates a gradual improvement in profit margins, with the adjusted net profit margin expected to rise from 14.8% in FY24E to 16.2% in FY25E [7]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from RMB 38.15 billion in FY24E to RMB 47.79 billion in FY25E, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [7].

证券研究报告 | 2024年08月22日 核心观点 公司研究·财报点评 证券分析师：曾光 证券分析师：钟潇 0755-82150809 0755-82132098 zengguang@guosen.com.cn zhongxiao@guosen.com.cn S0980511040003 S0980513100003 证券分析师：张鲁 证券分析师：杨玉莹 010-88005377 zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn yangyuying@guosen.com.cn S0980521120002 S0980524070006 收盘价 13.90 港元 总市值/流通市值 32318/32318 百万港元 52 周最高价/最低价 22.34/12.38 港元 近 3 个月日均成交额 145.84 百万港元 | --- | --- | |----------|----------------| | 基础数据 | | | 投资评级 | 优于大市(维持) | | 合理估值 | | | 市场走势 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------- ...

股价表现 2024 年 08 月 21 日 同程旅行（0780.HK） 业绩符合预期；核心 OTA 利润率下半年有望提升 同程旅行 2 季度业绩符合预期，收入增速快于 GMV 增速，整体变现率提升明 显。核心 OTA 收入同比增 23%，经营利润率 24.3%；度假业务贡献 8.6 亿收入增 量。展望下半年，我们预计核心 OTA 业务收入稳健增长，经营利润率或随营销 效率优化而提升，故维持全年净利润预测。考虑市场环境变化，下调估值倍数， 目标价调整至 18.8 港元，维持买入评级。 报告摘要 2 季度业绩符合预期：总收入 42.5 亿元，同比/环比增 48%/10%，符合我们及市 场预期，核心 OTA 业务收入同比增 23%（其中交通票务/住宿预订服务同比增 17%/13%），度假业务贡献收入增量 8.6 亿元，环比增 9%，收入占比环比持平在 17%。整体收入增速快于 GMV 增速（+4%），整体变现率提升至 6.8%，对比 2Q23/1Q24 为 4.8%/5.9%。营销/研发/行政费用占收入比同比降 3.3%/3.3%/ 0.8%， 受益于 ROI 导向营销策略及运营效率优化，带动经调整净利润同比增 1 ...

海 外 公 司 （ 中 国 香 港 ） 国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 补贴收紧关注利润，盈利能力有望改善 同程旅行(0780) [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.08.21 同程旅行 2024Q2 业绩点评 | --- | --- | |----------|---------------------| | | 于清泰(分析师) | | | 021-38022689 | | | yuqingtai@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880519100001 | 本报告导读： 业绩符合预期，收益管理补贴收紧支撑业绩逆势稳定增长，盈利能力有望环比改善。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 维持"增持"评级。考虑行业景气度，下调公司 24/25/26 年经调整 归母净利润至 26.17/30.93/36.17（-0.98/-1.98/-4.09）亿元人民币（下 同），给予 2025 年行业平均 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with total revenue reaching 4.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 434 million yuan, up 21.9% year-on-year [3] - The core OTA segment showed steady growth, with transportation ticketing and accommodation booking revenues of 1.743 billion yuan and 1.191 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 16.6% and 12.8% [3] - The company signed a three-year strategic cooperation and marketing agreement with Tencent, aiming to enhance user acquisition through various channels, particularly in lower-tier cities [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024Q2, the adjusted EBITDA was 914 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, while the adjusted net profit was 657 million yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year [3] - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 64.6%, down 10.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the lower margin from the newly added vacation business segment [3] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 1.98 billion yuan, 2.77 billion yuan, and 3.46 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 10, and 8 times [4] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 13.12 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 30.5 billion HKD [5] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.65 and a total share capital of approximately 2.325 billion shares [5][6] User Engagement Metrics - As of the end of Q2 2024, the company had 228 million annual paying users and 1.856 billion annual service users, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% and 29.9%, respectively [3]