Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (01299.HK) [8] Core Insights - AIA Group reported a strong performance with a 18% year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) and announced a new share buyback plan of $1.6 billion [8] - The company achieved a net profit of $6.84 billion, reflecting an 84% year-on-year growth, with a significant increase of 133% in the second half of the year [8] - The embedded value reached $69 billion, up 4% year-on-year, with an operating return on embedded value increasing by 2.0 percentage points to 14.9% [8] - The expected final dividend per share is 130.98 Hong Kong cents, a 10% increase compared to the previous year [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total insurance revenue for 2023 was $17.514 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.32% [8] - After-tax operating profit for 2023 was $6.213 billion, showing a decline of 3.24% year-on-year [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was $0.35, with projections for 2024 at $0.64 [8] New Business Value (NBV) - The annualized new premium (ANP) for 2023 was $8.61 billion, up 14% year-on-year [8] - The total NBV for the year was $4.71 billion, reflecting an 18% increase [8] - The NBV margin improved by 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [8] Regional Performance - NBV in Hong Kong increased by 23% to $1.76 billion, accounting for 34.8% of the total [8] - NBV in mainland China reached $1.22 billion, up 20% year-on-year [8] - The "New Malaysia Thailand" region also showed positive growth in NBV, with increases of 15%, 10%, and 15% respectively [8] Investment Strategy - The company has shifted its investment strategy, reducing fixed income allocation to 71.1% while increasing equity allocation to 22.3% [8] - The net investment yield for the year was 4.0%, with a total investment return of 4.9% [8] Capital Management - AIA Group has completed its previous $12 billion share buyback program and plans to implement a new $1.6 billion buyback plan within 2025 [8] - The current stock price corresponds to 1.12 times the estimated price-to-embedded value (PEV) for 2025, indicating a low valuation with a high margin of safety [8]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·保险(HS) 友邦保险（01299.HK） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 03 月 15 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 -25% -18% -11% -4% 3% 10% 17% 24% 31% 38% 45% 2024/3/15 2024/7/14 2024/11/12 2025/3/13 友邦保险 恒生指数 市场数据 | 收盘价(港元) | 61.25 | | --- | --- | | 一年最低/最高价 | 45.25/74.60 | | 市净率(倍) | 16.39 | | 港股流通市值(百万港 | 655,019.43 | | 元) | | 2024 年年报点评：NBV 表现出色同比+18%， 加推 16 亿美元股份回购计划 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保险 ...

投资逻辑 友邦业务覆盖亚太地区 18 个市场，经营及财务表现稳健。1）新 单保费与 NBV 底部周期有韧性，2023 年来重回高增长，2024 年 NBV Margin 企稳回升。2019 年开始受香港社会事件、公共卫生事件等 因素 NBV 承压，2018-2022 年 4 年 NBV 复合增速为-6%，但好于内 地其他寿险公司。在公共卫生事件因素消除、香港通关、内地预 定利率切换下 2023-24 年 NBV 重回双位数正增长，2024Q1-3 NBV 同比+20%，NBV Margin 开始企稳回升。2）得益于新业务价值的稳 定增长以及存量高价值保单的稳定摊销，营运利润实现平稳增长。 2024H1，公司税后归母营运利润同比+3.5%（固定汇率口径同比 +7%）。3）公司内含价值的成长性和可信性兼具。友邦投资回报假 设和贴现率假设根据市场收益率变动及时调整，以保证价值评估 的审慎性。且资产负债久期缺口较小，其内含价值和新业务价值 的利率敏感性远低于内地上市公司。NBV 增长稳健及营运差异优 秀，使得友邦的 ROEV 维持在较高位。4）公司资本管理政策优化， 股东回报的可预期性、稳定性提升。友邦自上市以来分红 ...

截至2024年12月31日止年度全年業績 友邦保險在2024年締造卓越的財務業績 新業務價值上升18%；每股稅後營運溢利增加12%；每股產生的基本自由盈餘上升10% 每股內涵價值權益增加9% 本公告僅供參考，並不構成任何人士收購、購買或認購證券的邀請或要約。本公告並非亦無意作為在美國發售本公司證券供出售的要 約。本公司證券並無亦不會根據1933年美國證券法（經修訂）（「美國證券法」）登記，且不得未根據美國證券法登記或適用豁免登記規 定而在美國發售或出售。本公司證券並無亦無計劃在美國公開發售。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表 示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 AIA Group Limited 友邦保險控股有限公司 （於香港註冊成立的有限公司） 股份代號：1299（港幣櫃台）及81299（人民幣櫃台） 每股末期股息上升10%；新一輪16億美元股份回購 友邦保險控股有限公司（「本公司」）董事會欣然公佈本集團截至2024年12月31日止年度的財務業績。增長率按固定 匯率基準列 ...

24 Feb 2025 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update AIA Group Ltd. (1299 HK) FY24 preview: OPAT back to growth trajectory; resilient VNB despite modest slowdown in 2H AIA's share price underperformed the market and CN insurers despite resilient VNB growth and a solid financial position underpinning attractive shareholder returns. The stock price fell 17.3% in FY24, lagging behind key benchmarks as HSI (+18%), CSI 300 (+15%) and FTSE APAC ex-Japan (+7%) (Fig.1). We attribute the m ...

Core Viewpoint - AIA Group Limited has appointed Zhang Xiaoyu as the Regional Chief Executive Officer, effective upon receiving all necessary regulatory approvals, overseeing operations in mainland China, South Korea, and Vietnam [1] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Zhang Xiaoyu will become a member of the Group Executive Committee and report to the Group CEO and President, Lee Yuanxiang [1] - Zhang holds a master's degree in applied mathematics from Fudan University and is a certified actuary in North America [1] Group 2: Business Expansion - Under Zhang's leadership, AIA China successfully completed the "split reform" and established AIA Life Insurance, the first wholly foreign-owned life insurance company in mainland China [1] - AIA Life has expanded its operations to 10 provinces and cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Shenzhen, and Jiangsu, with recent approvals for new provincial branches in Anhui, Shandong, and Chongqing [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group Limited is "Outperform the Market" [6][8][11] Core Views - The report highlights a strong performance in the third quarter, with a 22% year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) to $3.62 billion, and a 16% increase in the third quarter alone to $1.16 billion [6][7] - The NBV margin improved to 53.3%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [6][7] - The annualized new premium (ANP) for the first three quarters reached $6.76 billion, reflecting a 16% year-on-year growth [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The report indicates that all segments achieved positive growth, with the agent channel's NBV increasing by 15% year-on-year in Q3, and the partner channel's NBV rising by 16% [7] - AIA China reported a 9% increase in Q3 NBV, with both agent and bancassurance channels showing positive growth [7] - AIA Hong Kong's Q3 NBV grew by 24%, driven by a 28% increase from local customers and a 20% increase from mainland visitors [7] Business Expansion - AIA China has received approval to establish new branches in Anhui and Shandong, which is expected to support future performance [4][8] - The report emphasizes the potential for continued growth in AIA China, particularly through the "best agents" strategy [4][8] Valuation - The current stock price corresponds to 1.2x the estimated 2024 Price to Embedded Value (PEV), suggesting a low valuation with high margin of safety [8][11] - The report estimates a fair value range for the company between HKD 75.45 and HKD 88.35, based on absolute valuation methods and comparable company valuations [8][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group Limited is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - AIA Group Limited achieved a new business value of USD 3.62 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22% (fixed exchange rate) [1] - The annualized new premium reached USD 6.76 billion, up 14.1% year-on-year, with all segments showing positive growth in new business value in Q3 [1][2] - The company continues to expand its market presence in mainland China, with new business value growth of 9% in Q3, driven by an increase in active agents and productivity [1][2] Summary by Sections New Business Performance - New business value for the first three quarters of 2024 was USD 3.62 billion, up 22% year-on-year (fixed exchange rate) [1] - Q3 new business value increased by 16.8% year-on-year, with a new business value margin of 53.3%, up 2.4 percentage points [1][2] - Annualized new premiums for Q3 were USD 6.76 billion, reflecting a 14.1% increase year-on-year [1] Market Segmentation - In mainland China, new business value grew by 9% in Q3, with both agency and bancassurance channels contributing to growth [1] - In Hong Kong, new business value increased by 24% in Q3, supported by local and MCV business growth [1] - ASEAN markets saw an 8% increase in new business value, with double-digit growth recorded in Singapore and Malaysia [1] Financial Projections - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 at USD 4.8 billion, USD 5.6 billion, and USD 6.3 billion respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a PEV of 1.27, 1.19, and 1.11 for 2024-2026 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299) with a target price of HKD 89.80 per share, corresponding to a 2024 P/EV of 1.81 times [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's new business value (NBV) for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 19.6% (actual exchange rate) / 22% (fixed exchange rate), meeting expectations. The growth was driven by improvements in both new business and value rates, with core channels maintaining good performance [2][7]. - The diversified product strategy is expected to enhance value growth momentum, addressing customer needs and regulatory guidance, which is anticipated to mitigate risks associated with interest spreads and improve profitability [7]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2022A to 2026E, the company’s revenue is projected to grow from USD 19,110 million in 2022 to USD 22,470 million in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.3% [6]. - The net profit is expected to increase from USD 282 million in 2022 to USD 6,147 million in 2026, with a significant growth rate of 25.3% in 2024E [6]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 328.94 in 2022 to 12.12 in 2026, indicating improved valuation over time [6]. Business Performance - The core regions of the business showed resilience, with NBV growth in mainland China at 9% and Hong Kong at 24%. The growth in Hong Kong was supported by local customers and mainland visitors, with agent and bancassurance channels performing well [7]. - The annualized new premium for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 14.1% (actual exchange rate) / 16% (fixed exchange rate), driven by both agent and partner distribution channels [7].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - On October 17, 48 Hong Kong-listed companies conducted share buybacks, totaling 27.06 million shares and an aggregate amount of HKD 189 million [1][2]. Group 1: Buyback Details - AIA Group repurchased 984,800 shares for HKD 62.18 million, with a highest price of HKD 64.45 and a lowest price of HKD 62.10, accumulating HKD 24.732 billion in buybacks this year [1][2]. - Kuaishou-W repurchased 713,700 shares for HKD 32.19 million, with a highest price of HKD 45.55 and a lowest price of HKD 44.75, totaling HKD 4.114 billion in buybacks year-to-date [1][2]. - Swire Pacific A repurchased 382,000 shares for HKD 24.53 million, with a highest price of HKD 65.45 and a lowest price of HKD 63.20, accumulating HKD 2.676 billion in buybacks this year [1][2]. Group 2: Notable Buyback Activities - The largest buyback amount on October 17 was by AIA Group at HKD 62.18 million, followed by Kuaishou-W at HKD 32.19 million [1][2]. - The highest number of shares repurchased on October 17 was by Youzan, with a buyback of 7 million shares, followed by Shenglong Jinxiu International and Andong Oilfield Services with 2 million and 1.74 million shares, respectively [1][2]. - Baiguoyuan Group conducted its first buyback of the year on this date [1].