Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group Limited is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a 2024 New Business Value (NBV) of USD 4.71 billion, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, which aligns with expectations [4] - The 2024 annualized new premium reached USD 8.61 billion, up 14% year-on-year, with a margin increase of 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [4] - The after-tax operating profit increased to USD 6.605 billion, reflecting a 7% year-on-year growth [4] - The report projects NBV growth of 10.8% and 10.2% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with an additional forecast of 10.4% for 2027 [4] - The company's strong liability performance and stable asset yield led to an upward revision of the 2025-2026 net profit forecast to HKD 52.7 billion and HKD 56.7 billion, respectively [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The total premium and fee income for 2023 was HKD 32.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [6] - The embedded value for 2024 is projected at HKD 55.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [6] - The new business value for 2024 is expected to be HKD 37 billion, reflecting a 16.8% year-on-year growth [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is forecasted at HKD 46.9 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.4% [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for 2025 is estimated at 12.4 times, while the price-to-embedded value (P/EV) is projected at 1.1 times [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (01299) [2][8] Core Insights - The company's NBV (New Business Value) growth is in line with expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 18% to $4.712 billion, while OPAT (Operating Profit After Tax) exceeded targets with a 12% year-on-year increase [5][6] - A new share buyback plan of $1.6 billion has been announced, indicating strong shareholder returns [6] - The company has shown a significant increase in equity asset allocation, with total investment assets rising by 8.2% year-on-year to $255.3 billion [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported a year-on-year increase in OPAT of 7% to $6.605 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 81.6% to $6.836 billion [5][10] - The expected growth in net profit for 2025-2027 is projected at $7.774 billion, $8.434 billion, and $8.949 billion respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 13.7%, 8.5%, and 6.1% [10][12] - The company's PEV (Price to Embedded Value) is currently at 1.14x for 2025, indicating a potential valuation recovery opportunity [8][10] Market Segmentation Analysis - In Hong Kong, NBV increased by 23% to $1.764 billion, driven by strong performance in agent and partner distribution channels [11] - In mainland China, NBV grew by 20% to $1.217 billion, supported by the establishment of four new branches [11] - Southeast Asian markets showed robust growth, with Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia reporting NBV increases of 15%, 15%, and 10% respectively [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [6]. Core Insights - AIA Group achieved a strong performance in 2024 with a New Business Value (NBV) of USD 4.712 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 18%. The annualized new premiums reached USD 8.606 billion, up 14% year-on-year, with an NBV margin improvement of 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [1]. - The growth in NBV was driven by significant contributions from both the agency force and partner distribution channels, which recorded NBV of USD 3.707 billion and USD 1.301 billion, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 16% and 28% [1]. - All regions reported double-digit growth in new business value, with notable increases in Mainland China and Hong Kong, achieving growth rates of 20% and 23%, respectively [1][2]. Summary by Sections Group Performance - AIA Group's 2024 NBV reached USD 4.712 billion, up 18% year-on-year, with annualized new premiums of USD 8.606 billion, reflecting a 14% increase. The NBV margin improved to 54.5% [1]. Mainland China - In Mainland China, the 2024 NBV recorded a year-on-year growth of 20% to USD 1.217 billion, with new subsidiaries contributing 27% to the growth. The NBV margin increased by 4.9 percentage points to 56.1% [2]. Hong Kong - Hong Kong's 2024 NBV grew by 23% to USD 1.764 billion, the highest proportion within the group. The demand for flagship savings products remained strong, and the company expects continued robust growth in 2025 [3]. ASEAN and Other Markets - AIA successfully capitalized on wealth growth opportunities in Singapore, achieving a 15% increase in NBV to USD 0.454 billion. Thailand and Malaysia also reported NBV growth of 15% and 10%, respectively [4]. OPAT and Share Buyback - The 2024 Operating Profit After Tax (OPAT) was USD 6.605 billion, up 7% year-on-year, with a per-share increase of 12%. A new share buyback plan of USD 1.6 billion has been approved, expected to yield approximately 6% total return for shareholders [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates continued strong growth in 2025, driven by market expansion in Mainland China and sustained demand for savings products in Hong Kong. The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upward to USD 7.55 billion, USD 7.94 billion, and USD 8.39 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 10.4%, 5.2%, and 5.6% respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated significant growth resilience, with a reported NBV increase of 18% year-on-year to $4.712 billion in 2024, and a steady rise in operating profit by 7% [1][4]. - The company is confident in achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% to 11% for after-tax operating profit over the next three years [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In the 2024 annual report, the company reported an 18% year-on-year increase in NBV and a 7% increase in after-tax operating profit [1]. Operational Analysis - All reporting segments achieved double-digit growth in NBV, with a fixed exchange rate NBV of $4.712 billion in 2024, reflecting an 18% increase year-on-year. The margin improved by 1.9 percentage points to 54.5%, and annualized new business increased by 14% [2]. - Breakdown by regions: - Mainland China: NBV increased by 20%, annualized new business by 10%, and margin improved by 4.9 percentage points to 56.1% [2]. - Hong Kong: NBV rose by 23%, with local and MCV growth at 24% and 22% respectively, and margin increased by 8 percentage points to 65.5% [2]. - Southeast Asia (Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia): Thailand's NBV grew by 15%, Singapore's by 15% with a 52% increase in annualized new business, and Malaysia's by 10% [2]. Shareholder Returns - The company reported a 7% increase in after-tax operating profit, with a target of returning $6.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in 2024, equating to an approximate shareholder return rate of 8.3% [3]. - The company announced a $1.6 billion share buyback plan, including $600 million from free surplus and an additional $1 billion [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is expected to maintain double-digit growth in NBV, with projected growth rates of 9%, 10%, and 10% for 2025-2027, and operating profit growth rates of 9%, 8%, and 9% respectively [4]. - The estimated PEV for 2025 is 1.20 times, which is at the 10th percentile of valuations since 2018 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AIA Group Limited (1299.HK) with a current price of HKD 61.25 [1] Core Insights - In 2024, AIA achieved a record operating profit of USD 6.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12% (fixed exchange rate) / 6.3% (actual exchange rate). The net profit attributable to shareholders reached USD 6.84 billion, up 84% (fixed exchange rate) / 81.6% [4][11] - The new business value for 2024 was USD 4.71 billion, reflecting an 18% increase (fixed exchange rate) / 16.8% [4][11] - AIA announced an additional USD 1.6 billion share buyback plan, demonstrating confidence in its long-term operational performance [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - AIA's operating profit reached a record high of USD 6.61 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 12% (fixed exchange rate) / 6.3% (actual exchange rate) [11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 6.84 billion, marking an 84% increase (fixed exchange rate) / 81.6% [4][11] - The annual dividend per share was HKD 1.75, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year [4] New Business Value - The new business value for 2024 was USD 4.71 billion, up 18% (fixed exchange rate) / 16.8% year-on-year [4][11] - The annualized new premium for 2024 was USD 8.61 billion, reflecting a 12.5% increase year-on-year [5] - The new business value margin was recorded at 54.5%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [5] Market Performance - The new business value in the China mainland market grew by 17.4% to USD 1.22 billion, while the Hong Kong market contributed USD 1.76 billion, up 23.4% [6][7][14] - The new business value in Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia was USD 0.82 billion, USD 0.45 billion, and USD 0.35 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.4%, 15.2%, and 9.4% [8][14] Share Buyback and Future Outlook - AIA completed a USD 12 billion share buyback plan in February 2025 and announced a new USD 1.6 billion buyback plan, indicating strong confidence in future operational and financial performance [11] - The report projects net profit for 2025-2026 to be USD 8.13 billion and USD 8.84 billion respectively, with an upward revision from previous estimates [14][16]

友邦保险（01299.HK） 2024 年年报点评：NBV 表现出色同比+18%， 加推 16 亿美元股份回购计划 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保险收益（百万美元） | 17514 | 19314 | 20108 | 20968 | 21897 | | 同比（%） | 7.32% | 10.28% | 4.11% | 4.28% | 4.43% | | 税后营运利润（百万美元） | 6213 | 6605 | 7235 | 7982 | 8711 | | 同比（%） | -3.24% | 6.31% | 9.54% | 10.33% | 9.13% | | EPS（美元/股） | 0.35 | 0.64 | 0.69 | 0.80 | 0.92 | | EV（美元/股） | 6.31 | 6.46 | 7.04 | 7.70 | 8.46 | [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 ...

均衡发展，回购小增 ——友邦保险 2024 年报点评 投资要点 业绩概览 2024 年，友邦保险归母净利润 68.36 亿美元，按固定汇率同比+84%，税后营运利润 66.05 亿、NBV 47.12 亿美元，按固定汇率同比+7%、+18%，EV 690.35 亿美元，相比 年初+4%，末期股息达 1.31 港元/股，同比+10%，全年股息总额同比+9%，符合预 期。 核心关注 1、负债端：多元均衡，齐头并进 （1）从边际增速看：相比 2024H1，友邦全年的 NBV 同比增速回落 7pt 至 18%，但 从绝对增速看，依然较高，保持了稳健较快增长。 （2）从驱动因素看：新单保费驱动为主，新业务价值率亦有贡献，2024 年，新单保 费（年化）达 86.06 亿美元，同比+14%，新业务盈利能力亦有所增强，价值率提升 1.9pt 至 54.5%。 （3）从分部区域看：2024 年，中国香港、中国内地、泰国、新加坡、马来西亚、其 他区域 NBV 同比分别+23%、+20%、+15%、+15%、+10%、+18%。①中国香港： 2024年，NBV达 17.64 亿美元，且实现 23%的同比增速，规模和增速均高于其他 ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 友邦保险（01299） 证券研究报告 业绩亮眼，16 亿回购新计划再启 如无特殊说明，本文中同比指固定汇率下同比。 1、集团：友邦保险 2024 全年实现 NBV47.12 亿美元，同比+18%；实现 年化新保 86.06 亿美元，同比+14%；NBV margin 同比+1.9pct 至 54.5%。 1. 分渠道来看，代理队伍及伙伴分销分别实现 NBV37.07 亿美元/ 13.01 亿 美元，同比+16%/+28%；实现年化新保 54.86 亿美元/31.20 亿美元，同比 +13%/+16%； NBV margin 67.6%/41.7%，同比+2.1pct/+3.9pct。2. 分地区来 看，本年度所有地区在新业务价值上均取得双位数增长，其中中国内地及 中国香港增长尤为显著，分别为+20%及+23%。 2、中国内地： 2024A NBV 录得双位数增长，固定汇率下同比+20%至 12.17 亿美元，其中自 2019 年以来设立的新分公司为友邦中国贡献 27%的新业务 价值增长，NBV 占集团比例第二高；NBV margin +4.9 pct 至 56.1% 。分渠 道来看 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for AIA Group is maintained as "Buy" [8] Core Insights - In 2024, AIA Group reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of $6.836 billion, an increase of 84% year-on-year at constant exchange rates. The after-tax operating profit was $6.605 billion, and the new business value (NBV) reached $4.712 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7% and 18% respectively. The embedded value (EV) stood at $69.035 billion, up 4% from the beginning of the year. The final dividend was HK$1.31 per share, a 10% increase year-on-year, with the total annual dividend rising by 9%, aligning with expectations [1][4][6]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - AIA Group's total investment scale reached $288.621 billion by the end of 2024, marking a 7.5% increase from the beginning of the year. The net and total investment yield for non-participating and surplus assets remained stable at 4.3% and 4.8% respectively, with net investment performance increasing by 133.4% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced financial expenses related to insurance contracts [4][6]. Liability Side - The NBV growth rate for 2024 was 18%, a decrease of 7 percentage points compared to the first half of 2024, but still indicating robust growth. The main driver was the new annualized premium income, which reached $8.606 billion, up 14% year-on-year. The new business profitability also improved, with the value rate increasing by 1.9 percentage points to 54.5% [2][3]. Regional Performance - In 2024, the NBV growth rates for various regions were as follows: Hong Kong +23%, Mainland China +20%, Thailand +15%, Singapore +15%, Malaysia +10%, and other regions +18%. Hong Kong led with an NBV of $1.764 billion, benefiting from strong growth in local and visitor business [3]. Shareholder Returns - AIA Group announced a new share buyback program of $1.6 billion, slightly increasing its shareholder return strategy. The expected completion of this buyback is within 2025, and the total shareholder return, including dividends and buybacks, is estimated to yield a dividend yield of approximately 6% based on the company's market capitalization at the end of the previous year [5][6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Given the strong growth momentum in diverse business markets and the expected opening of new branches, the profit forecast for AIA Group has been revised upward. The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is expected to grow by 2.2%, 25.0%, and 10.4% respectively. The target price is set at HK$83.3, corresponding to a price-to-embedded value (PEV) of 1.5 times for 2025, maintaining the "Buy" rating [6][13].

证券研究报告 友邦保险 (1299 HK) 版 服 酒 2024: NBV 稳健增长,回购小幅延续 | 华泰研究 | | --- | | 2025 年 3 月 14 日 中国香港 | 友邦保险 2024年EPS USD0.62，高于我们的预测 USD0.56, 主要因投资 收益超预期:24年友邦新业务价值同比提升 18%(不变汇率),表现稳定; 每股营运利润同比提升 12%（不变汇率），表现较好。维持"买入"。 假设调整影响大陆市场 NBV 增速 2024 年友邦新业务价值(NBV)同比提升 18%(不变汇率,下同),主要 由大中华市场的高速增长带动。2024年中国香港市场 NBV 同比增长 23%， 其中内地访客和本地居民分别+22%/24%,在高基数下展现出增长韧性。中 国大陆市场 NBV 同比增长 20%,公司下调了大陆市场长期利率假设,在不 调整基数的情况下 4Q24 大陆市场 NBV 下滑 9%。考虑到友邦经营地域持 续扩张,我们看好友邦中国未来的增长潜力。此外,东南亚市场也保持稳健 增长,2024 年友邦泰国/新加坡/马来西亚 NBV 分别同比增长 15%/15%/10%。我们预计 2025年 N ...