Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 21.38, indicating a potential upside of 31.98% from the current price [2][74]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a builder of a "human-vehicle-home ecosystem," with a focus on expanding its core business areas, including smartphones, IoT, and internet services, while also venturing into the automotive sector [1][5]. - The smartphone business remains stable, with a market share of 13.8% as of Q1 2024, and is expected to benefit from the 5G device upgrade cycle and AI-driven innovations [1][12]. - The IoT and lifestyle products segment is the world's leading consumer-grade AIoT platform, with significant growth potential as the company expands its overseas market presence [1][25]. - The internet services business is projected to enhance its monetization capabilities as the company penetrates the high-end market and expands its overseas user base [1][32]. - The automotive segment, marked by the launch of the Xiaomi SU7, is anticipated to drive a second growth curve for the company, with a delivery target of approximately 120,000 units for 2024 [1][37]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of RMB 270.97 billion in 2023, with a forecasted increase to RMB 332.86 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.84% [3][74]. - Net profit for 2023 was RMB 17.47 billion, with projections of RMB 14.31 billion for 2024, reflecting a decrease due to ongoing investments in new business areas [3][74]. - The gross margin improved from 16.99% in 2019 to 21.21% in 2023, driven by a better revenue mix and strategic focus on profitability [64][66]. Business Segments Smartphone Business - The smartphone segment accounted for 61.6% of total revenue in Q1 2024, with a market share of 14% globally [12][15]. - The average selling price (ASP) of smartphones reached RMB 1,144.7, showing resilience despite market fluctuations [13][18]. IoT and Lifestyle Products - The IoT platform connects 786 million devices, with a user base of 15.2 million having five or more connected devices [25][28]. - The IoT segment is expected to generate revenue of RMB 902.3 billion to RMB 1,007.2 billion from 2024 to 2026 [72]. Internet Services - Internet services revenue is projected to grow from RMB 332.2 billion in 2024 to RMB 390.8 billion in 2026, driven by advertising and gaming services [72][33]. Automotive Business - The automotive segment aims to deliver 120,000 units in 2024, with revenue expectations of RMB 299 billion, increasing to RMB 800 billion by 2026 [72][37]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a high-end strategy to enhance brand image and expand into higher price segments, with over 20% of smartphone sales in the high-end category [18][20]. - The automotive business is positioned as a key growth driver, with significant investments in R&D and production capabilities [37][43]. - The integration of AI across all product lines is a strategic focus, enhancing user experience and operational efficiency [16][44].

深度报告 买入 品牌上行赋能全系产品,人车家进入正反馈通道 小米集团-W(1810.HK) 2024-7-22 星期一 | --- | --- | |----------|-------| | 目标价: | 21.1 | | 现 价: | 16.52 | | 预计升幅 | 27.7% | 重要数据 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------|------------| | 日期 | 2024.7.190 | | 收盘价(港元) | 16.526 | | 总股本(亿股) | 250.31 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 43109 | | 净资产(亿港元) | 1845.91 | | 总资产(亿港元) | 3606.8 | | 52 周高低(港元) | 20.35/11.9 | | 每股净资产(港元) | 7.066 | | 数据来源:Wind、国元证券经纪 | (香港)整理 | 主要股东 Smart Mobile HoLdings Limited 23.54% Apex Star LLC 8.6% 全球上一轮手机出货高峰在 2016 年,距今已有 8 年,换机需求不 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to Xiaomi Group-W (1810) with a target price of HKD 20.0 [1][4]. Core Views - The report anticipates stable growth in Xiaomi's smartphone business, continued growth in IoT and internet services, and the initiation of revenue generation from the automotive business. The adjusted net profit for FY24Q2 is expected to be RMB 4.35 billion [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue for FY2024 and FY2025 is adjusted to RMB 337 billion and RMB 384.5 billion respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 24.4% and 14.1%. The adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 19.6 billion and RMB 20.2 billion, with year-on-year growth of 1.8% and 3.1% [4][8]. Q2 FY24 Performance Expectations - For FY24Q2, the expected revenue is RMB 86.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.4%. The smartphone revenue is projected at RMB 45.7 billion (up 25% YoY), IoT revenue at RMB 24.9 billion (up 12% YoY), and internet services revenue at RMB 8 billion (up 7.5% YoY) [4][8]. Automotive Business Insights - Xiaomi's automotive business is expected to deliver over 25,000 units in FY24Q2, generating more than RMB 6 billion in revenue. The projected delivery volumes for 2024 and 2025 are 111,000 units and 195,000 units, with corresponding revenues of RMB 27.8 billion and RMB 58.9 billion. However, a loss of RMB 11 billion is anticipated for the automotive business in 2024 due to initial R&D and operational costs [4][8][9]. Smartphone Business Analysis - The smartphone segment is expected to maintain a market share of 15% in China, with a stable performance across low-end, mid-range, and high-end models. Xiaomi's competitive edge lies in its technological innovation at comparable price points and successful expansion into overseas markets [4][8]. IoT and Internet Services Growth - The IoT business is projected to generate RMB 24.9 billion in FY24Q2, benefiting from peak air conditioning sales. Xiaomi's R&D expenditure reached RMB 19.1 billion in 2023, supporting continuous innovation in IoT products. The internet services segment is expected to earn RMB 8 billion in FY24Q2, driven by a strong user base and enhanced platform efficiency [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Xiaomi with a target price (TP) of HK$25.39, implying a potential upside of 53.5% from the current price of HK$16.54 [5][14]. Core Insights - The growth outlook for Xiaomi remains intact despite market concerns regarding margin impacts from rising memory prices and competition from the AI iPhone launch. The company is expected to continue gaining global smartphone market share, strengthen its AIoT sales, and ramp up EV shipments [2][3]. - Management has reiterated the annual delivery target of 120,000 units for the SU7 EV, with production capacity increasing to 20,000 units per month [3]. - Xiaomi aims to achieve a shipment target of 165 million smartphones in 2024, up from 146 million in 2023, supported by overseas expansion in various regions [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY23 was RMB 270,970 million, with a projected increase to RMB 337,161 million in FY24, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.4% [4][17]. - Adjusted net profit for FY23 was RMB 19,273 million, expected to rise to RMB 22,974 million in FY24, reflecting a growth of 19.2% [4][17]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 0.77 in FY23 to RMB 0.92 in FY24 [4][17]. Earnings Forecast - The report outlines a revenue breakdown for FY24E, with smartphones contributing RMB 185,020 million, IoT and lifestyle products at RMB 93,264 million, and internet services at RMB 32,856 million [12][13]. - Gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 21.1% for FY24E, with smartphone margins slightly declining due to memory cost pressures [12][13]. Valuation - The valuation methodology includes assigning a P/E multiple of 15x for Xiaomi's smartphone, AIoT, and internet businesses, while the EV business is valued at 0.75x FY25E P/S [14][15]. - The total valuation for Xiaomi is estimated at RMB 581,175 million, with a target price of HK$25.39 based on the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis [14][15].

公司研究 | 季报点评 小米集团-W 01810.HK 买入（维持） 24Q1 经调整净利润同比高增 股价（2024年05月30日） 17.7港元 目标价格 21.44港元 52周最高价/最低价 20.35/9.86港元 总股本/流通H股（万股） 2,502,221/2,048,455 H股市值（百万港币） 442,893 核心观点 国家/地区 中国 行业 电子 ⚫ 24Q1公司营收达755亿元，同比增长27%；经调整净利润达65亿元（包括智能电 报告发布日期 2024年05月31日 动汽车等创新业务费用人民币 23 亿元），同比增长 100.8%，创历史新高；毛利率 超22%，同比提升2.8 pct。 1周 1月 3月 12月 ⚫ 智能手机出货量同比提升，高端化战略成效显著。公司24Q1智能手机实现营收465 绝对表现% -6.55 2.19 33.89 68.57 亿元，同比增长 33%；毛利率约 15%，同比提升 3.6 pct。高端化战略成效显著， 相对表现% -3.17 -0.44 23.48 70.54 24Q1公司全球智能手机出货量同增34%到4060万台，高端机占比达22%；中国大 恒生指数% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a record high profit with a revenue of 75.5 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 27%, and an adjusted net profit of 6.49 billion, which is a 100.75% increase year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for the quarter was 22.29%, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year and 0.97 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The smartphone business saw a significant revenue increase of 33% year-on-year, with global shipments reaching 40.6 million units, a 33.7% increase [1] - The AIoT business revenue grew by 21% year-on-year, with the total number of connected devices reaching 786 million, a 27% increase [1] - The internet business revenue was 8.048 billion, up 14.5% year-on-year, with overseas revenue growing by 39% [1] - The automotive business is set to expand production in June, aiming for a total delivery of 100,000 vehicles in 2024 [1] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, 2025, and 2026, the company is expected to generate revenues of 332.3 billion, 380.5 billion, and 422.8 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.6%, 14.5%, and 11.1% [1] - The adjusted net profit forecast for the same years is 17.26 billion, 19.59 billion, and 20.88 billion, with year-on-year changes of -10.4%, +13.5%, and +6.6% [1] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.69, 0.55, and 0.61 respectively [4]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 23 [2][3] Core Views - Xiaomi Group's 2024Q1 revenue reached RMB 75.5 billion, a YoY increase of 27%, with adjusted net profit exceeding expectations at RMB 6.5 billion, up 101% YoY [1] - The core business adjusted net profit (excluding EV and other innovation expenses) was RMB 9 billion, better than expected [1] - Xiaomi's smartphone market share increased to 14% in 2024Q1, with shipments of 40.6 million units, up 34% YoY [1] - The company raised its 2024 SU7 delivery target from 100,000 to 120,000 units, with expected car gross margins of 5-10%, exceeding market expectations [2] Business Segments Smartphones - Smartphone revenue in 2024Q1 was RMB 46.5 billion, up 33% YoY, with a gross margin of 14.8%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points YoY [1] - The ASP (Average Selling Price) for smartphones in 2024Q1 was RMB 1,144.7, a slight decrease of 0.6% YoY, but both domestic and international ASPs increased [1] - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments are expected to continue growing, with market share and ASP likely to rise further in 2024 [1] AIoT and Internet Services - AIoT platform connected devices reached 786 million in 2024Q1, up 27% YoY, with 15.2 million users having five or more connected devices, a 24.2% YoY increase [1] - AIoT gross margin hit a record high of 19.9%, up 4.1 percentage points YoY, driven by higher-margin products like tablets and wearables [1] - Internet services revenue in 2024Q1 was RMB 8 billion, up 14.5% YoY, with overseas internet revenue reaching RMB 2.5 billion, accounting for 31.2% of total internet revenue [1] - Internet services gross margin was 74.2%, up 1.9 percentage points YoY, supported by higher-margin advertising revenue [1] Xiaomi Automotive - Xiaomi's automotive division plans to expand its intelligent driving team to 1,500 by the end of 2024 and 2,000 by 2025 [2] - The company aims to launch city NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) in 10 cities by May 2024 and nationwide by August 2024 [2] - Xiaomi's "Human x Car x Home" ecosystem strategy is expected to enhance user experience and increase profitability through IoT products and value-added services [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB 337.3 billion, RMB 389.1 billion, and RMB 434.2 billion, with YoY growth rates of 24%, 15%, and 12% respectively [2] - Non-GAAP core business net profit for 2024-2026 is forecasted at RMB 27 billion, RMB 29.5 billion, and RMB 32.1 billion, with YoY growth rates of 1%, 9%, and 8% respectively [2] - The company's 2024E P/E ratio for core business is 15x, with a 2x P/S ratio for the automotive segment [2] Market Performance - Xiaomi's stock price as of May 24, 2024, was HKD 18.30, with a total market capitalization of HKD 456.68 billion [3] - The company's 30-day average trading volume was 129.63 million shares [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HKD 24.0, representing a potential upside of 31.1% from the recent closing price of HKD 18.3 [2][3]. Core Insights - Xiaomi Group's Q1 2024 total revenue increased significantly by 27% year-on-year to RMB 75.5 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of RMB 73.4 billion. The overall gross margin improved by 2.8 percentage points to 22.3% [1]. - Adjusted net profit for Q1 2024 grew by 100.8% year-on-year to RMB 6.5 billion, exceeding the market expectation of RMB 5.1 billion, despite incurring RMB 2.3 billion in expenses related to its automotive innovation business [1]. - The report highlights the successful launch of Xiaomi's first electric vehicle, the Xiaomi SU7 series, which has received strong market demand with 10,000 units delivered by mid-May 2024 [1]. Summary by Sections Smartphone Business - In Q1 2024, Xiaomi ranked third globally in smartphone shipments with a market share of 13.8%, shipping 40.6 million units, a year-on-year increase of 33.7%, outperforming the global smartphone market's growth of 9.8% [1]. - Revenue from the smartphone segment reached RMB 46.5 billion, up 32.9% year-on-year, with the average selling price (ASP) slightly decreasing by 0.6% to RMB 1,144 due to increased overseas market revenue [1]. Internet and IoT Services - Internet services revenue hit a record high of RMB 8 billion in Q1 2024, growing 14.5% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 74.2%, up 1.9 percentage points [1]. - Revenue from IoT and lifestyle products reached RMB 20.4 billion, a 21.0% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 19.9%, marking a significant improvement of 4.1 percentage points [1]. Automotive Business - The automotive business commenced successfully with the launch of the Xiaomi SU7 series, achieving 10,000 deliveries by May 15, 2024, and aiming for monthly deliveries exceeding 10,000 units by June 2024 [1]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the production capacity expansion plans for Xiaomi's automotive segment [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 22.80 HKD, compared to the current price of 18.30 HKD [4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high adjusted net profit margin in Q1 2024, with a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 27% to 755 billion RMB. The three core business segments—smartphones, IoT, and internet services—showed strong growth, with revenues increasing by 32.9%, 21.0%, and 14.5% respectively [2][3]. - The SU7 electric vehicle model has received over 88,000 pre-orders, with a target of delivering 120,000 units for the year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue reached 755 billion RMB, up 27% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 6.5 billion RMB, marking a 100.8% increase, with a historical high net profit margin of 8.6% [2]. - The smartphone segment generated 465 billion RMB in revenue, with a shipment volume of 4.06 million units, reflecting a 33.7% year-on-year increase [2][3]. - IoT revenue grew by 21.0% to 204 billion RMB, achieving a record high gross margin of 19.9% [2]. - Internet services revenue increased by 14.5% to 80 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 74.2% [2]. Business Segments - The smartphone business saw a gross margin of 14.8%, despite a slight decline due to increased BOM costs and inventory provisions. The expected gross margin for the smartphone segment for the full year is projected to be between 12-13% [2]. - The IoT segment's strong performance is attributed to high-margin products such as tablets and smart appliances, with expectations for a gross margin above 18% for the year [2]. - The internet services segment is expected to benefit from an increasing global user base and higher-end device sales, driving revenue growth [2]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026, increasing the Non-IFRs net profit estimates to 16.6 billion, 18.3 billion, and 21 billion RMB respectively [3]. - The report anticipates continued growth driven by the successful launch of the SU7 and improvements in the company's core business operations [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 22.80, compared to the current price of HKD 18.30 [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a record high adjusted net profit margin of 8.6% in Q1 2024, with a non-IFRS net profit of CNY 6.5 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 100.8% [2][3]. - Revenue for Q1 2024 reached CNY 75.5 billion, a 27% increase year-on-year, driven by strong growth across its three core business segments: smartphones, IoT, and internet services [2][3]. - The company aims to deliver 120,000 units of its new electric vehicle model, SU7, in 2024, with over 88,000 pre-orders already secured [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue was CNY 75.5 billion, with smartphone, IoT, and internet service revenues increasing by 32.9%, 21.0%, and 14.5% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 22.3%, with a historical high non-IFRS net profit margin of 8.6% [2][3]. - The smartphone business generated CNY 46.5 billion in revenue, with a gross margin of 14.8%, despite a slight decline in average selling price (ASP) [2][3]. Business Segments - IoT revenue grew to CNY 20.4 billion in Q1 2024, with a gross margin of 19.9%, marking a historical high [2]. - Internet services revenue reached CNY 8 billion, with a gross margin of 74.2%, driven by a 25% increase in advertising revenue [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects smartphone gross margins to stabilize between 12-13% for the full year 2024, despite potential fluctuations during promotional periods [2]. - The IoT segment is projected to maintain a gross margin above 18% for 2024, supported by strong sales of high-margin products [2]. - The internet services segment is anticipated to benefit from an increasing global user base and enhanced monetization capabilities [2].