电子/消费电子 公 司 研 究 汽车上升势头持续，高端化有望提振主业利润及估值 小米集团-W（01810.HK） 2024 年 11 月 20 日 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 吴柳燕（分析师） wuliuyan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521110001 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|---------------| | 日期 | 2024/11/19 | | 当前股价 ( 港元 ) | 28.300 | | 一年最高最低 ( 港元 ) | 29.700/11.840 | | 总市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 7,064.40 | | 流通市值 ( 亿港元 ) | 7,064.40 | | 总股本 ( 亿股 ) | 249.63 | | 流通港股 ( 亿股 ) | 249.63 | | 近 3 个月换手率 (%) | 41.14 | 股价走势图 -60% -30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 小米集团-W 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《核心业务利润超预期，汽车上升势 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 256.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.63 billion yuan, up 14.8% year-on-year. The performance exceeded market expectations [1] - The automotive gross margin continues to exceed expectations, with a target of 130,000 units for the year. In Q3 2024, the smart vehicle business revenue increased by 52.3% quarter-on-quarter to 9.7 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 17.1% [1] - The domestic market share of smartphones has improved, with a successful high-end strategy. In Q3 2024, smartphone revenue reached 47.45 billion yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year, and the company aims for a 16.4% year-on-year increase in sales for 2024 [1] - The new retail expansion and product innovation have led to significant growth in air conditioning and washing machine shipments. In Q3 2024, the IoT business generated revenue of 26.1 billion yuan, up 26.3% year-on-year [1] - The company expects continued benefits from the high-end and global layout of its smartphone and AIoT businesses, with adjustments to net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 280.04 billion yuan, with a forecast of 342.2 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 26.29% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.47 billion yuan in 2022, expected to rise to 19.76 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 13.07% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.79 yuan for 2024, with a P/E ratio of 33.25 based on the closing price on November 19, 2024 [1] Automotive Business - The automotive business revenue in Q3 2024 was 9.7 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 17.1%, driven by lower core component prices and increased sales [1] - The company has raised its annual delivery target to 130,000 units, with a monthly delivery exceeding 20,000 units in October 2024 [1] Smartphone Business - In Q3 2024, smartphone revenue was 47.45 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 11.7%. The company achieved a market share of 14.7% in mainland China, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 percentage points [1] - The introduction of the new flagship Xiaomi 15 series is expected to enhance the company's high-end positioning [1] IoT and Retail Expansion - The IoT business revenue for Q3 2024 was 26.1 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 20.8%. The company plans to increase its retail stores to approximately 15,000 by the end of 2024 [1] - Significant growth in shipments of air conditioning, refrigerators, and washing machines was noted, with year-on-year increases of 55%, 20%, and 50% respectively [1]

小米集团-W（1810.HK）2024 年三季报点评 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 24Q3 业绩持续增长，汽车业务规模效应凸显 2024 年 11 月 18 日 ➢ 事件：11 月 18 日，小米集团发布 2024 年三季报，公司 2024Q3 实现营收 925.07 亿元（YoY+30.0%，QoQ+4.1%），经调整净利润 62.52 亿元（YoY+4.4%， QoQ+1.2%）。24Q3 毛利率为 20.41%（YoY-2.3pct，QoQ-0.3pct），净利率 为 5.77%（YoY-1.1pct，QoQ+0.1pct）。 ➢ 24Q3 业绩表现强劲，单季营收创历史新高，净利率逐季提升。24Q3，公 司实现营收 925.07 亿元（YoY+30.0%，QoQ+4.1%），创历史新高，分业务来 看，智能手机/IoT 与生活消费产品/互联网服务/高科技电动汽车业务分别实现营 收 475/261/85/97 亿元，同比分别增长 13.9%/26.3%/9.1%/-，在总营收中的 占比分别为 54.7%/28.5%/9.6%/6.3%。公司盈利实现稳健增长，经调整净利润 62.52 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics - Total revenue reached RMB 92.5 billion, a 31% YoY increase, marking the first quarter to surpass RMB 90 billion [3] - Smartphone revenue was RMB 82.8 billion, up 17% YoY, with a gross margin of 11.7% [3] - IoT and lifestyle products revenue grew to RMB 26.1 billion, with a gross margin of 20.8%, a record high [13] - Adjusted net profit for the quarter was RMB 6.3 billion, with core business profit margin at 8.3% [3] - Cash reserves reached RMB 151.6 billion, an 18.7% YoY increase [16] Business Line Performance - Smartphone shipments reached 43.1 million units globally, maintaining the top three position for 17 consecutive quarters [12] - IoT and lifestyle products saw a 26.3% YoY growth, with smart home appliances like air conditioners and refrigerators showing strong performance [13] - Internet services revenue hit a record high of RMB 8.5 billion, with overseas internet services growing 18.3% YoY [14] - Smart electric vehicle (EV) revenue was RMB 9.7 billion, with a gross margin of 17.1%, and deliveries reached 39,790 units [14] Market Performance - In China, the company's smartphone market share increased by 1.2 percentage points to 14.7%, ranking fourth [7] - Globally, the company ranked in the top three in 52 countries and regions, and top five in 60 countries and regions [7] - The global MIUI user base reached 686 million, with 168 million in China, driving strong growth in internet services [13] Strategic Direction and Industry Competition - The company continues to focus on its high-end strategy, with the Xiaomi 15 series achieving strong sales despite price increases [4] - The "Smart Home + AIoT" strategy has driven significant growth in IoT and lifestyle products, with a focus on product innovation and ecosystem synergy [6] - The company is expanding its global footprint, with plans to bring its new retail model to international markets [8] - In the EV sector, the company aims to deliver 130,000 units in 2024, with a focus on improving gross margins and expanding sales and service networks [8] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The company highlighted the importance of AI in driving future growth, with a focus on building a unified AI ecosystem across all devices [9] - Management emphasized the need for continued investment in R&D, particularly in AI and EV technologies, to maintain long-term competitiveness [10] - The company expects strong growth in its smart home appliances and EV businesses, driven by product innovation and market expansion [6][8] Other Important Information - The company has been recognized for its ESG efforts, with improvements in MSCI ESG ratings and awards for corporate governance and sustainability [16] - The Xiaomi Foundation has donated RMB 650 million to support initiatives in technology innovation, talent development, and poverty alleviation [17] Q&A Summary Question: Growth path for the smart home appliance business - The company plans to transition from ODM to in-house production, focusing on core component R&D and expanding sales channels [19][20] - Gross margins for smart home appliances are higher than the overall IoT segment, contributing to overall profitability [27] Question: Factors driving EV gross margin improvement - Scale effects and single-product efficiency have driven gross margin improvements, with further enhancements expected in Q4 [25] - The company plans to continue heavy R&D investment in EV technologies to build future competitive barriers [27] Question: Competitive advantages of Xiaomi 15 series in a crowded market - The Xiaomi 15 series focuses on delivering a balanced user experience with no compromises, leveraging advanced technologies like ultrasonic fingerprint sensors and IP68 ratings [30][31] - The company's ability to maintain high product quality and user experience has driven strong sales despite price increases [44] Question: Synergies between EV and existing retail networks - The company is leveraging its existing retail network to expand EV sales, with plans to open 500-square-meter stores in premium locations [35] - The integration of EV sales into existing retail channels has shown strong efficiency, with high customer traffic and low operational costs [36] Question: ASP improvement in EV business - ASP improvements are driven by product mix, with higher-end models like the Max Pro contributing to higher average prices [38] - The company expects further ASP growth with the launch of new high-end models in 2025 [38] Question: Market share growth strategy for smartphones - The company aims to increase market share in key regions like China, Africa, and Latin America, with a focus on high-end product growth [39] - The integration of the "Human x Car x Home" ecosystem is expected to drive further growth in smartphone sales [41] Question: Outlook for high-end smartphone pricing and overseas expansion - The company believes that users are willing to accept price increases for high-end products, driven by strong product capabilities [44] - Overseas, the company is focusing on markets like Europe, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East for high-end smartphone growth [45] Question: Expansion plans for Xiaomi Home stores - The company plans to accelerate the expansion of Xiaomi Home stores, with a target of 20,000 stores by 2025 [46] - The integration of EV sales into Xiaomi Home stores has shown strong profitability and customer engagement [49]

Revenue and Profit - Xiaomi's total revenue for Q3 2024 reached RMB 92.5065 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%[4] - Xiaomi's total revenue for the first nine months of 2024 was RMB 256.9012 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%[6] - The company's adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 reached RMB 6.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%[15] - Xiaomi's adjusted net profit in Q3 2024 was RMB 6.3 billion, including an adjusted net loss of RMB 1.5 billion for the "Smart Electric Vehicles and Other Innovative Businesses" segment[7] - Revenue increased by 4.1% from RMB 88.9 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 92.5 billion in Q3 2024[80] - Adjusted net profit grew by 1.2% from RMB 6.2 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 6.3 billion in Q3 2024[119] - Q3 2024 reported net profit was RMB 5,340,292 thousand with a net profit margin of 5.8%[124] - Non-IFRS net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 6,251,965 thousand with a net profit margin of 6.8%[124] - Non-IFRS net profit for the first nine months of 2024 was RMB 18,918,320 thousand with a net profit margin of 7.4%[140] - Reported net profit for the first nine months of 2024 was RMB 14,583,173 thousand with a net profit margin of 5.7%[140] - Non-IFRS net profit for the first nine months of 2023 was RMB 14,363,088 thousand with a net profit margin of 7.3%[156] - Net profit attributable to the company's owners for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 14,632,467 thousand, a 14.8% increase from RMB 12,747,675 thousand in the same period of 2023[190] Smartphone Business - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments in Q3 2024 were 43.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%[8] - Smartphone revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 47.5 billion, a 13.9% year-on-year increase, with global shipments of 43.1 million units, up 3.1%[17] - Smartphone revenue grew by 13.9% YoY to RMB 47.4523 billion in Q3 2024, with ASP increasing by 10.6% to RMB 1,102.2[38] - Smartphone revenue rose by 2.0% from RMB 46.5 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 47.5 billion in Q3 2024, driven by increased shipments[83] - The Xiaomi 15 series achieved sales of 1 million units faster than its predecessor, despite a higher starting price[18] - The sales cost of smartphones increased by 20.7% from RMB 34.7 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 41.9 billion in Q3 2024, driven by higher sales and rising core component costs[50] - Smartphone gross margin decreased from 12.1% in Q2 2024 to 11.7% in Q3 2024, primarily due to higher core component costs[103] IoT and Lifestyle Products - Xiaomi's AIoT platform connected devices (excluding smartphones, tablets, and laptops) grew to 861.4 million by September 30, 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%[8] - IoT and lifestyle products revenue for Q3 2024 reached RMB 26.1 billion, a 26.3% year-on-year increase, with a record-high gross margin of 20.8%[21] - The AIoT platform connected 861.4 million IoT devices (excluding smartphones, tablets, and laptops) as of September 30, 2024, up 23.2% year-on-year[21] - IoT and lifestyle products revenue rose by 26.3% YoY to RMB 26.1022 billion in Q3 2024[39] - IoT and lifestyle products revenue decreased by 2.5% from RMB 26.8 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 26.1 billion in Q3 2024[84] - The sales cost of IoT and lifestyle products increased by 21.8% from RMB 17.0 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 20.7 billion in Q3 2024, primarily due to increased sales[51] - IoT and lifestyle products gross margin increased from 19.7% in Q2 2024 to 20.8% in Q3 2024, driven by higher-margin products like wearables[104] - The gross margin of IoT and lifestyle products increased from 17.8% in Q3 2023 to 20.8% in Q3 2024, driven by higher-margin products[61] Internet Services - Internet services revenue for Q3 2024 hit a record RMB 8.5 billion, a 9.1% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 77.5%[25] - Internet services revenue increased by 9.1% YoY to RMB 8.4628 billion in Q3 2024[42] - Internet services revenue grew by 2.4% from RMB 8.3 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 8.5 billion in Q3 2024[86] - The gross margin of internet services increased from 74.4% in Q3 2023 to 77.5% in Q3 2024, primarily due to increased advertising revenue[61] - Internet service cost increased by 6.4% from RMB 1.8 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 1.9 billion in Q3 2024, driven by higher advertising and other value-added service costs[96] Smart Electric Vehicles - Xiaomi delivered 39,790 Xiaomi SU7 series vehicles in Q3 2024, with a total of 67,157 vehicles delivered by September 30, 2024[8] - Smart electric vehicle revenue in Q3 2024 was RMB 9.5 billion, with 39,790 Xiaomi SU7 series vehicles delivered[45] - Xiaomi SU7 series delivered 39,790 new vehicles in Q3 2024, with cumulative production reaching 100,000 units by November 13, 2024[26] - Xiaomi SU7 Ultra pre-sales reached 3,680 units within 10 minutes, priced at RMB 814,900[30] - Smart electric vehicle revenue surged by 52.1% from RMB 6.2 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 9.5 billion in Q3 2024, driven by increased deliveries[89] - Smart electric vehicle and innovation business cost surged by 49.1% from RMB 5.4 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 8.0 billion in Q3 2024, due to increased vehicle deliveries[99] - Smart electric vehicle and innovation business gross margin improved from 15.4% in Q2 2024 to 17.1% in Q3 2024, due to higher ASP and lower core component costs[105] R&D and Innovation - Xiaomi's R&D expenditure in Q3 2024 was RMB 6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%[11] - Xiaomi's R&D expenses in Q3 2024 were RMB 5.9568 billion, up 19.9% YoY[33] - The R&D expenses increased by 19.9% from RMB 5.0 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 6.0 billion in Q3 2024, mainly due to increased expenses related to innovative businesses such as smart electric vehicles[65] - R&D expenses rose from RMB 5.5 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 6.0 billion in Q3 2024[78] - R&D expenses for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, increased to RMB 16,613,900 thousand, a 21.9% rise from RMB 13,634,383 thousand in the same period of 2023[190] - R&D expenses increased by 8.3% from RMB 5.5 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 6.0 billion in Q3 2024, mainly due to higher expenses in smart electric vehicle and innovation business[108] Global User Base and Market Presence - Xiaomi's global monthly active users reached a record high of 685.8 million in September 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%[8] - The company's global monthly active users reached 685.8 million in September 2024, a 10.1% year-on-year increase[25] - Xiaomi's offline retail stores in mainland China exceeded 13,000 by September 30, 2024[12] - The company's global wearable product shipments in Q3 2024 grew over 50% year-on-year, with smartwatches and TWS earbuds hitting record highs[23] Financial Position and Cash Flow - Cash reserves as of September 30, 2024, stood at RMB 151.6 billion, up 18.7% year-on-year[15] - Cash and cash equivalents as of September 30, 2024, were RMB 39.7 billion[162] - Net cash from operating activities for Q3 2024 was RMB 12,858.1 million[167] - Net cash used in investing activities for Q3 2024 was RMB 9,028.4 million[167] - Net cash used in financing activities for Q3 2024 was RMB 3,554.4 million[167] - Net increase in cash and cash equivalents for Q3 2024 was RMB 275.3 million[168] - The company's total cash reserves as of September 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 151.6 billion[170] - Net cash generated from operating activities in Q3 2024 was RMB 12.9 billion, primarily due to pre-tax profit of RMB 6.8 billion[172] - Net cash used in investing activities in Q3 2024 was RMB 9 billion, mainly due to a net increase in long-term bank deposits of RMB 8.9 billion[173] - Net cash used in financing activities in Q3 2024 was RMB 3.6 billion, primarily due to repayment of borrowings of RMB 1 billion[174] - The company's total borrowings as of September 30, 2024, were RMB 27.4 billion[175] - Capital expenditures for mobile × AIoT and smart electric vehicle innovation businesses were RMB 31.847 billion and RMB 14.313 billion respectively[177] - The company invested in approximately 430 companies with a total book value of RMB 64.9 billion as of September 30, 2024[180] - Total restricted bank deposits as of September 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 4.9 billion[186] - Net cash generated from operating activities was RMB 15,388.685 million, a decrease from RMB 33,489.982 million in the same period last year[197] - Net cash used in investing activities was RMB 6,319.313 million, compared to RMB 29,321.565 million in the previous year[197] - Net cash used in financing activities was RMB 3,099.077 million, up from RMB 548.255 million in the prior year[197] - Net increase in cash and cash equivalents was RMB 5,970.295 million, compared to RMB 3,620.162 million in the same period last year[198] - Beginning cash and cash equivalents were RMB 33,631.313 million, up from RMB 27,607.261 million in the previous year[198] - The impact of exchange rate changes on cash and cash equivalents was RMB 53.746 million, down from RMB 425.143 million in the prior year[198] - Ending cash and cash equivalents were RMB 39,655.354 million, compared to RMB 31,652.566 million in the same period last year[199] Gross Profit and Margin - Xiaomi's overall gross profit margin in Q3 2024 was 20.4%, with the "Smartphone × AIoT" segment at 20.8% and the "Smart Electric Vehicles and Other Innovative Businesses" segment at 17.1%[12] - The gross profit increased by 17.2% from RMB 16.1 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 18.9 billion in Q3 2024, while the gross margin decreased from 22.7% to 20.4%[56] - The gross margin of the smartphone × AIoT division decreased from 22.7% in Q3 2023 to 20.8% in Q3 2024[60] - Gross profit increased from RMB 18.4 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 18.9 billion in Q3 2024[78] - Gross profit rose by 2.6% from RMB 18.4 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 18.9 billion in Q3 2024, while gross margin declined from 20.7% to 20.4%[100] - Gross profit for the nine months ended September 30, 2024, was RMB 54,105,304 thousand, up 29.2% from RMB 41,862,294 thousand in the same period of 2023[190] Sales and Marketing Expenses - The sales and marketing expenses increased by 32.6% from RMB 4.7 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 6.3 billion in Q3 2024, driven by expenses related to smart electric vehicles and overseas logistics for the smartphone × AIoT business[66] - Xiaomi's total sales cost in Q3 2024 increased by 34.4% YoY to RMB 73.6251 billion[47] - The sales cost of the smartphone × AIoT division increased by 19.7% from RMB 54.8 billion in Q3 2023 to RMB 65.6 billion in Q3 2024[49] - Sales cost increased by 4.4% from RMB 70.5 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 73.6 billion in Q3 2024[91] - Other related business cost increased by 12.7% from RMB 1.0 billion in Q2 2024 to RMB 1.1 billion in Q3 2024[97] ESG and Corporate Responsibility - Xiaomi's MSCI ESG rating improved from BB to BBB in October 2024[31] Employee and Organizational Structure - The company had 42,057 full-time employees as of September 30, 2024, with 20,436 in R&D roles[182] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of September 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 350,945,365 thousand, up 8.2% from RMB 324,247,439 thousand as of December 31, 2023[193] - Property, plant, and equipment increased to RMB 16,154,692 thousand as of September 30, 2024, a 17.7% rise from RMB 13,720,825 thousand as of December 31, 2023[193] - Long-term bank deposits surged to RMB 39,929,852 thousand as of September 30, 2024, a 118.3% increase from RMB 18,293,650 thousand as of December 31, 2023[193] - Total equity attributable to the company's owners as of September 30, 2024, was RMB 177,244,056 thousand, an 8.1% increase from RMB 163,995,489 thousand as of December 31, 2023[195] - Total liabilities as of September 30, 2024, were RMB 173,120,841 thousand, up 8.2% from RMB 159,985,671 thousand as of December 31, 2023[195]

Investment Rating - Buy rating (首次覆盖) [3][5] Core Views - Xiaomi's strategic shift towards high-end products and its business model evolution are key drivers for future growth [3] - The company's organizational and management changes support its high-end strategy [3] - Xiaomi's 3C business is entering a positive cycle, with smartphone shipments reaching 146 million units in 2023, ranking third globally [4] - The integration of MIUI into Hyper OS and the development of Xiaomi SU7 are significant milestones in Xiaomi's ecosystem strategy [4] - Xiaomi's high-end strategy is expected to enhance its financial metrics, including growth rate, profit margin, R&D, and valuation multiples [3] Business Segments Smartphones - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments in 2023 were 146 million units, ranking third globally [4] - The high-end smartphone segment accounted for 22.1% of total shipments in Q2 2024 [12] - Xiaomi's smartphone ASP in China increased by over 19% in 2023, reaching a historical high [101] IoT and Lifestyle Products - Xiaomi's home appliance business revenue grew by 40% in 2023, with shipments of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines reaching record highs [4] - The IoT and lifestyle products segment is expected to grow by 18% in 2024, reaching RMB 94.3 billion [11] Internet Services - Xiaomi's internet services revenue is projected to grow by 12% in 2024, reaching RMB 33.9 billion [11] - The high-end smartphone segment contributes significantly to internet services, with LTV being twice that of non-premium smartphones [146] Smart Electric Vehicles - Xiaomi SU7, the company's first electric vehicle, achieved sales of over 10,000 units for five consecutive months in 2024 [4] - Xiaomi plans to deliver 120,000 units of SU7 in 2024, with a production capacity of 190,000 units in the first phase [124][130] - The company has invested heavily in R&D for its electric vehicle business, with a team of 3,400 engineers and over RMB 10 billion in R&D expenses [141] Financial Projections - Xiaomi's total revenue is expected to grow by 28% in 2024, reaching RMB 347.4 billion [5] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase by 26% in 2024, reaching RMB 24.3 billion [5] - The company's smartphone business revenue is expected to grow by 19% in 2024, reaching RMB 187.3 billion [10] - The IoT and lifestyle products segment is projected to grow by 18% in 2024, reaching RMB 94.3 billion [11] - Internet services revenue is expected to grow by 12% in 2024, reaching RMB 33.9 billion [11] - The smart electric vehicle business is projected to generate RMB 30.4 billion in revenue in 2024, with a delivery target of 129,600 units [11] Valuation - Xiaomi's "Smartphone x AIoT" segment is valued at RMB 7,165 billion based on a 22x PE multiple for 2025E adjusted net profit of RMB 332 billion [5] - The smart electric vehicle and innovation business segment is valued at RMB 674 billion based on a 0.9x PS multiple for 2025E revenue of RMB 728 billion [5] - The target market capitalization for 2025E is RMB 7,839 billion (HK$ 847.5 billion), with a target price of HK$ 33.9 per share, representing a 21% upside [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (1810 HK) with a target price of HKD 36.00 [4][9][12] Core Views - Xiaomi's stock price has risen 85% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Hang Seng Tech Index by 67 percentage points [4] - The company's revenue is expected to grow 28% YoY in 3Q24, driven by its automotive and IoT businesses [4] - Xiaomi's SUV launch in 2025Q1 is anticipated to sustain rapid revenue growth, with Non-GAAP profit projected to increase by 55% in 2025 [4] - The new target price of HKD 36 includes an estimated valuation of HKD 8.7 per share for Xiaomi's automotive business [4][12] Smartphone/IoT/Internet Business - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments reached 42.8 million units in 3Q24, a 3.3% YoY increase, with a global market share of 13.5% [5] - Smartphone gross margin is expected to be 11.8% in 3Q24, pressured by rising raw material costs [5] - IoT revenue is projected to grow 20% YoY in 3Q24, with gross margin exceeding 20%, the highest since its IPO, driven by strong overseas and wearable product sales [5] - Internet business revenue is expected to grow 9.8% YoY in 3Q24, with gross margin remaining strong at 75% [5] Automotive Business - Xiaomi's automotive revenue is forecasted to exceed RMB 9 billion in 3Q24, a 42.8% QoQ increase [6] - Automotive shipments in 3Q24 are estimated to be close to 40,000 units, with gross margin improving to 17% [6] - The company's second-phase automotive factory is expected to be completed by June 2025, with total annual capacity potentially reaching 400,000 units [6] - Xiaomi's automotive business is projected to achieve breakeven in 2025, benefiting from economies of scale and reduced expense ratios [6] Financial Projections - Xiaomi's revenue for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is forecasted at RMB 348.2 billion, RMB 471.6 billion, and RMB 574.1 billion, respectively, representing YoY growth of 28.5%, 35.4%, and 21.8% [8] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at RMB 24.7 billion, RMB 38.3 billion, and RMB 47.2 billion, respectively, with YoY growth of 27.9%, 55.4%, and 23.3% [8] - The company's PE ratio for 2025E is estimated at 16.69x, with a PB ratio of 3.03x [8] Valuation Methodology - The target price of HKD 36 is based on a SOTP valuation method, assuming a forward HKD/RMB exchange rate of 0.92 [12] - Xiaomi's existing businesses are valued at 17.3x 2025E PE, equivalent to HKD 27.3 per share, while the automotive business is valued at 2x 2025E PS, equivalent to HKD 8.7 per share [12][13] Industry Comparison - Xiaomi's 2025E PE ratio of 16.69x is lower than the industry average of 18.56x for comparable companies [14] - The company's automotive business valuation multiple of 2x 2025E PS is higher than the industry average of 0.86x, reflecting expectations of rapid growth and synergies with its smartphone business [14]

小米 SU7 十月交付量超两万台，智能手机 出货量持续同增 核心观点 ⚫ 智能手机出货量持续同比增长，坚持高端化战略，小米 15 系列发布。根据 Canalys 最新数据，全球智能手机出货量 24Q3 同比增长 5%，达到约 3.10 亿部，是自 2021 年以来最强劲的第三季度表现。小米本季度出货量为 4280 万，同比增长 3%，连续 五个季度保持增长，稳居全球第三，占据 14%市场份额。10 月 29 日，小米 15 系 列正式发布，小米 15 配备了高通最新发布的骁龙 8 至尊版旗舰处理器，搭载新一代 翼型环冷散热系统，电池容量提升到 5400mAh，配备澎湃 P3 快充芯片 + 澎湃 G1 电池管理芯片，并才有超声波指纹识别。 ⚫ 智能电动汽车 SU7 十月交付量超两万台，开启城市 NOA 全量推送。据小米汽车官 博消息，小米 SU7 单月交付量在 10 月首次突破 2 万台，预计 11 月将提前完成 10 万台全年交付目标。小米 SU7 OTA 1.4.0 已经开启推送，带来城市 NOA 和澎湃智 能座舱升级等更新。小米城市 NOA 实现"全国都能开"的城市 NOA 城市领航辅 助，车端导航能到， ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on Xiaomi Group (1810), indicating a new starting point for the company as it accelerates its move towards high-end products [1]. Core Insights - The performance of the new Surge OS 2.0 has significantly improved, with core technologies such as HyperCore, HyperConnect, and HyperAI being upgraded to enhance user experience across devices [1]. - The Xiaomi 15 series and new AIoT products have generated considerable excitement in the industry, showcasing Xiaomi's commitment to innovation and high-quality offerings [1]. - The launch of the SU7 Ultra prototype car has elevated Xiaomi's brand image in the high-end market, with a competitive price point compared to luxury brands [1]. - Xiaomi plans to increase its R&D investment significantly, with expectations of over 24 billion yuan in 2024 and more than 30 billion yuan in 2025, to further enhance its technological capabilities [1]. - The automotive division is ramping up production, with October deliveries reaching 20,000 units, and the company is on track to meet its annual delivery target of 140,000 units [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiaomi is focusing on high-end product development, with a strong emphasis on AI integration and user experience improvements through its new operating system [1]. Product Innovations - The Xiaomi 15 series features enhanced specifications and competitive pricing, while the introduction of various AIoT products demonstrates the company's commitment to meeting consumer needs [1]. Brand Development - The SU7 Ultra's record-setting performance has bolstered Xiaomi's high-end brand perception, with significant pre-orders indicating strong market interest [1]. Financial Outlook - The company anticipates improved margins in its automotive segment due to increased production efficiency and government subsidies for its core products [1].

Investment Rating - The report reiterates a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810 HK) with a target price of 31 HKD [3][4] Core Views - Xiaomi Group released the Xiaomi 15 series smartphones, Xiaomi SU7 Ultra mass production version, and 16 other hardware and software products at its October 29th launch event [1] - Global smartphone shipments grew 4 0% YoY in Q3 2024 to 316 1 million units Xiaomi maintained its position as a top 3 global player with 42 8 million shipments and 13 5% market share [2] - Xiaomi's smartphone gross margin is expected to bottom out in Q3 2024 and improve thereafter as screen and memory cost increases stabilize [2] - The AIoT business is benefiting from China's home appliance trade-in subsidy program and overseas IoT expansion driving revenue growth [2] - Xiaomi SU7 deliveries exceeded 20 000 units in October 2024 and full-year deliveries are expected to reach 120 000 units [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecast to grow 28%/25%/16% YoY in 2024/2025/2026 to 347 8/434 5/504 3 billion RMB [3] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected at 31 7/35 4/40 5 billion RMB in 2024/2025/2026 representing 18%/12%/14% YoY growth [3] - The automotive business is expected to turn profitable in 2026 with 3 4 billion RMB in net profit after losses of 7 2/2 0 billion RMB in 2024/2025 [3] Business Segment Analysis - Smartphone revenue is forecast to grow 20%/8%/7% YoY in 2024/2025/2026 to 189 0/203 2/218 3 billion RMB with gross margin improving from 12 7% to 13 9% [13] - IoT and lifestyle products revenue is projected to increase 19%/11%/11% YoY in 2024/2025/2026 to 95 5/106 1/117 7 billion RMB with gross margin rising from 20 0% to 21 4% [13] - Internet services revenue is expected to grow 10%/7%/7% YoY in 2024/2025/2026 to 33 1/35 4/38 0 billion RMB maintaining a 75% gross margin [13] - Automotive revenue is forecast to surge from 27 2 billion RMB in 2024 to 127 8 billion RMB in 2026 with gross margin improving from 16 0% to 19 7% [13]