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小米集团-W:2024年中报点评:业绩超预期,人车家全生态谱曲新十年
民生证券· 2024-08-22 16:07
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (1810 HK) [1][2] Core Views - Xiaomi's 2Q24 performance exceeded expectations with revenue reaching RMB 888 88 billion (+32 0% YoY) and adjusted net profit of RMB 61 75 billion (+20 1% YoY) [1] - The company's smartphone×AIoT business achieved revenue of RMB 825 billion (+22 5% YoY) with a gross margin of 21 1% [1] - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments reached 42 2 million units (+28 1% YoY) maintaining its position as a top-three global smartphone vendor with a 14 6% market share [1] - The company's smart electric vehicle business achieved revenue of RMB 6 2 billion with a gross margin of 15 4% and delivered 27 307 Xiaomi SU7 series vehicles [1] Business Performance Smartphone Business - Smartphone revenue reached RMB 465 billion (+27 1% YoY) with a gross margin of 12 1% [1] - High-end smartphone shipments in mainland China accounted for 22 1% of total smartphone shipments (+2 0pct YoY) [1] - Market share in the RMB 5000-6000 price segment in China increased by 2 3pct to 8 9% [1] IoT and Lifestyle Products - IoT and lifestyle product revenue reached RMB 268 billion (+20 3% YoY) with a gross margin of 19 7% (+2 2pct YoY) [1] - Major home appliance business revenue grew by 38 7% YoY [1] Internet Services - Internet service revenue reached RMB 83 billion (+11 0% YoY) with a gross margin of 78 3% (+4 2pct YoY) [1] - Global and mainland China monthly active users reached record highs [1] International Business - Overseas market revenue reached RMB 381 billion accounting for 43% of total revenue [1] - Xiaomi ranked among the top three smartphone vendors in 58 countries and regions and top five in 70 countries and regions [1] - The company achieved top-two smartphone shipments in Latin America for the first time [1] Smart Electric Vehicle Business - R&D investment reached RMB 5 5 billion (+20 7% YoY) [1] - Xiaomi plans to achieve cumulative deliveries of 100 000 Xiaomi SU7 series vehicles by November 2024 and aims for 120 000 units for the full year [1] - The company has opened 87 car sales stores in 30 mainland Chinese cities [1] - City NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) function was launched in 10 Chinese cities with plans for nationwide rollout in August 2024 [1] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to reach RMB 3330 98/3799 67/4279 69 billion in 2024/2025/2026 [1] - Net profit attributable to parent company is forecasted at RMB 177 96/202 34/247 06 billion for 2024/2025/2026 [1] - EPS is projected to be RMB 0 70/0 71/0 81/0 99 for 2023A/2024E/2025E/2026E [2][6] - P/E ratios are estimated at 25/22/18 times for 2024/2025/2026 [1][2] Strategic Outlook - The report highlights Xiaomi's "Human×Car×Home" ecosystem strategy and continuous AI layout [1] - The company is expected to benefit from smartphone industry recovery and AI-driven replacement demand [1] - Smart electric vehicle business is seen as a key growth driver for the company [1]
小米集团-W:港股公司信息更新报告:核心业务利润超预期,汽车上升势头强化
开源证券· 2024-08-22 14:39
电子/消费电子 公 司 研 究 核心业务利润超预期,汽车上升势头强化 小米集团-W(01810.HK) 2024 年 08 月 22 日 ——港股公司信息更新报告 投资评级:买入(维持) | --- | --- | |--------------------|---------------| | 日期 | 2024/8/22 | | 当前股价(港元) | 19.100 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 20.350/11.220 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 4,759.99 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 4,759.99 | | 总股本(亿股) | 249.21 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 249.21 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 24.75 | 吴柳燕(分析师) wuliuyan@kysec.cn 证书编号:S0790521110001 汽车上升势头持续,高端化及出口提振长期前景,维持"买入"评级 基于 IoT 收入和汽车毛利率超预期,我们将 2024-2026 年经调整净利润由 203/227/219 亿元上调至 210/282/333 亿元,同比增速为 9%/34%/18%。当前股价 1 ...
小米集团-W:2024Q2创单季度营收记录,汽车毛利率亮眼
国投证券· 2024-08-22 14:39
本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用,请勿传阅。 公司快报 2024 年 08 月 22 日 小米集团-W(01810.HK) 2024Q2 创单季度营收记录,汽车毛利 率亮眼 事件: 公司披露 2024Q2 业绩,2024Q2 实现收入 889 亿元,同增 32%;经调 整净利润为 62 亿元,同增 20.1%。 2024Q2 收入创单季度记录,利润端快速增长。得益于汽车新业 务收入贡献增量,2024Q2 实现收入 889 亿元,同增 32%,创单季 度营收最高记录;毛利率为 20.7%,同比下降 0.3pct,IoT 及互 联网服务毛利率提升抵消智能手机毛利率下滑;2024Q2 整体营业 费用为 126 亿元,其中手机 x AIoT 分部营业费用为 96 亿元,对 应营业费用率为 11.7%,同比下降 1.1pct。2024Q2 研发费用为 55 亿元,同增 20.7%。经调整净利润为 62 亿元,同增 20.1%。 人车家三大终端进入增长周期,经营表现亮眼。2024Q2 公司突 出的经营表现得益于三大核心终端出货量均进入增长周期,进而 推动互联网服务变现效率提升: ➢ 智能电动汽车:毛利率超预期,全 ...
小米集团-W:第二季度在 EV GPM 和弹性核心收益方面表现突出 ; 重申买入
招银国际· 2024-08-22 10:28
22 Aug 2024 CMB 国际全球市场 | 股票研究 | 公司更新 小米 ( 1810 HK ) 第二季度在 EV GPM 和弹性核心收益方面表现突 出 ; 重申买入 小米在2024年第二季度实现了强劲的收入/调整后净利润增长,同比增长32%/20%。调整后 净利润比我们的预测高出21%/27%,主要是由于电动汽车(EV)/互联网业务的毛利率更强 以及运营效率的提升所驱动。小米首次公布了其电动汽车业务的财务数据,季度毛利率为 15.7%,远高于市场预期的5%-10%,管理层预计下一季度的毛利率将实现环比增长。展望未 来,我们对小米在全球智能手机市场份额的增长、新零售战略的执行、AIoT业务的增长势头 以及电动汽车出货量的交付以推动FY24E-25E的盈利增长持乐观态度。我们将FY24-26E的每 股收益上调6-8%,以反映强劲的第二季度结果和更佳的电动汽车盈利能力,并将基于SOTP的 股价目标上调至港币24.4元,相当于FY24E的市盈率23.9倍。即将到来的催化剂包括每月出货 量SU7和智能手机市场份额的增加。 2Q24 盈利超过强劲的物联网 / 互联网 / 电动汽车利润率。小米2024年第二季度全球 ...
小米集团-W:2Q24 beat on EV GPM and resilient core earnings; Reiterate BUY
招银国际· 2024-08-22 10:12
22 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Xiaomi (1810 HK) 2Q24 beat on EV GPM and resilient core earnings; Reiterate BUY Xiaomi delivered strong 2Q24 revenue/adj.net profit growth of 32%/20% YoY. Adj. net profit is 21%/27% ahead of our/consensus estimates, mainly driven by stronger EV/internet GPM and improving efficiency. Xiaomi reported its first EV business financials with a quarterly GPM at 15.7%, well above market expectation of 5-10%, and mgmt. guided QoQ GPM exp ...
小米集团-W(01810) - 2024 - 中期业绩
2024-08-21 09:34
Revenue and Profit - Xiaomi's total revenue for Q2 2024 reached RMB 88.9 billion, a 32.0% YoY increase[2] - Xiaomi's adjusted net profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 6.2 billion, a 20.1% YoY increase[2] - Total revenue for Q2 2024 was RMB 88.89 billion, up from RMB 67.35 billion in Q2 2023[16] - Adjusted net profit under non-IFRS measures was RMB 6.18 billion in Q2 2024, compared to RMB 5.14 billion in Q2 2023[16] - Total revenue increased by 32.0% from RMB 67.4 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 88.9 billion in Q2 2024[18] - Adjusted net profit increased by 20.1% from RMB 5.1 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 6.2 billion in Q2 2024[44] - Revenue grew 32% YoY to RMB 88.89 billion in Q2 2024 and 29.6% YoY to RMB 164.39 billion in H1 2024[92] - Net profit attributable to equity holders increased 38.9% YoY to RMB 5.1 billion in Q2 2024 and 17.9% YoY to RMB 9.28 billion in H1 2024[92] - Net profit for Q2 2024 was RMB 5.1 billion, up from RMB 4.2 billion in Q1 2024[76] - Adjusted net profit decreased by 4.9% from RMB 6.5 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 6.2 billion in Q2 2024[76] - Net profit for the period was RMB 9,242,881 thousand with a net profit margin of 5.6%[79] - Non-IFRS adjusted net profit for the period was RMB 12,666,355 thousand with a net profit margin of 7.7%[79] - Net profit attributable to the company's owners for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was RMB 9,280,063 thousand, an increase from RMB 7,873,814 thousand in the same period in 2023[108] Smartphone Business - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments in Q2 2024 were 42.2 million units, a 28.1% YoY growth[4] - Xiaomi's high-end smartphone shipments in mainland China accounted for 22.1% of total smartphone shipments in Q2 2024, a 2.0 percentage point YoY increase[5] - Xiaomi's global smartphone shipments in Q2 2024 were 42.2 million units, a 28.1% YoY increase, with a 14.6% global market share[8] - Smartphone revenue increased by 27.1% from RMB 36.6 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 46.5 billion in Q2 2024, driven by a 28.1% increase in smartphone shipments[22] - Smartphone cost of sales increased by 28.8% from RMB 31.7 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 40.9 billion in Q2 2024, driven by increased sales and higher component costs[30] - Smartphone gross margin decreased from 13.3% in Q2 2023 to 12.1% in Q2 2024 due to intensified competition in mainland China and rising core component costs[38] - Smartphone revenue remained stable at RMB 46.5 billion in Q2 2024, with shipments increasing by 3.8% to 42.2 million units, despite a 3.6% decrease in ASP to RMB 1,103.5 per unit[50] - Smartphone gross margin decreased to 12.1% in Q2 2024 from 14.8% in Q1 2024, impacted by promotional activities and rising component costs[67] - Smartphone segment revenue increased to RMB 46,516,412 thousand in Q2 2024, up from RMB 36,595,461 thousand in Q2 2023[101] IoT and Lifestyle Products - Xiaomi's AIoT platform connected devices (excluding smartphones, tablets, and laptops) grew to 822.2 million, a 25.6% YoY increase[4] - Xiaomi's IoT and lifestyle products revenue in Q2 2024 reached a record high of RMB 26.8 billion, a 20.3% YoY increase, with a gross margin of 19.7%[10] - Xiaomi's AIoT platform connected 822.2 million devices (excluding smartphones, tablets, and laptops) as of June 30, 2024, a 25.6% YoY increase[10] - IoT and lifestyle products revenue increased by 20.3% from RMB 22.3 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 26.8 billion in Q2 2024, reaching a historical high[23] - IoT and lifestyle products cost of sales increased by 17.1% from RMB 18.3 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 21.5 billion in Q2 2024, driven by increased sales[31] - IoT and lifestyle products gross margin increased from 17.6% in Q2 2023 to 19.7% in Q2 2024, driven by higher margins in wearable products and smart home appliances[38] - IoT and lifestyle products revenue reached a record high of RMB 26.8 billion in Q2 2024, up 31.3% QoQ, driven by strong growth in smart home appliances[51] - IoT and lifestyle products segment revenue grew to RMB 26,760,314 thousand in Q2 2024, compared to RMB 22,253,866 thousand in Q2 2023[101] Internet Services - Xiaomi's global monthly active users reached 675.8 million in June 2024, an 11.5% YoY increase[4] - Internet services revenue reached RMB 8.3 billion in Q2 2024, a record high with an 11.0% YoY increase and a gross margin of 78.3%[12] - Global monthly active users reached 675.8 million in June 2024, up 11.5% YoY, with mainland China monthly active users at 164.4 million, up 10.1% YoY[12] - Internet services revenue increased by 11.0% from RMB 7.4 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 8.3 billion in Q2 2024, reaching a historical high[24] - Internet services gross margin rose from 74.1% in Q2 2023 to 78.3% in Q2 2024, primarily due to increased advertising revenue and higher advertising margins[38] - Internet services revenue hit a record high of RMB 8.3 billion in Q2 2024, up 2.7% QoQ, primarily due to increased advertising revenue[52] - Internet services gross margin improved to 78.3% in Q2 2024, up from 74.2% in Q1 2024, driven by higher advertising revenue[68] - Internet services segment revenue rose to RMB 8,265,611 thousand in Q2 2024, up from RMB 7,444,079 thousand in Q2 2023[101] Smart Electric Vehicle Business - Xiaomi SU7 series delivered 27,307 units in Q2 2024, aiming for 100,000 cumulative deliveries by November 2024 and 120,000 by year-end[6] - Smart electric vehicle business revenue reached RMB 6.2 billion in Q2 2024, with 27,307 Xiaomi SU7 series vehicles delivered[14] - Xiaomi SU7 series cumulative delivery target for 2024 is 120,000 vehicles, with 100,000 expected to be delivered by November 2024[14] - Xiaomi SU7 Ultra prototype features a 1,548PS tri-motor all-wheel drive system and debuted the second-generation Kirin battery[14] - Smart electric vehicle revenue in Q2 2024 was RMB 6.2 billion, with 27,307 Xiaomi SU7 series vehicles delivered[26] - Smart electric vehicle revenue surged to RMB 6.2 billion in Q2 2024, up significantly from RMB 18.4 million in Q1 2024[54] - Smart electric vehicles and other innovative businesses recorded a gross margin of 15.4% in Q2 2024[38] - Smart electric vehicle gross margin increased to 15.4% in Q2 2024 from 12.6% in Q1 2024[68] - Operating expenses for the smart electric vehicle and other innovative business segments in Q2 2024 were RMB 2.9 billion[69] - The company officially launched its smart electric vehicle business on March 28, 2024, impacting financial performance[98] - The smart electric vehicle business is now reported as a separate segment due to its distinct product and customer base[99] R&D and Innovation - Xiaomi's R&D expenditure reached RMB 5.5 billion in Q2 2024, a 20.7% YoY increase, with R&D personnel accounting for 48.7% of total employees[6] - R&D expenses increased by 20.7% from RMB 4.6 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 5.5 billion in Q2 2024, mainly due to higher expenses related to smart electric vehicles and other innovative businesses[39] - R&D expenses increased by 6.6% from RMB 5.2 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 5.5 billion in Q2 2024[70] - R&D expenses rose 20.7% YoY to RMB 5.5 billion in Q2 2024 and 22.9% YoY to RMB 10.66 billion in H1 2024[92] - Total employee count reached 37,525 as of June 30, 2024, with 18,290 in R&D roles[88] Overseas Market - Xiaomi's overseas market revenue in Q2 2024 was RMB 38.1 billion, accounting for 42.8% of total revenue[5] - Overseas internet services revenue grew by 32.9% YoY to RMB 2.7 billion in Q2 2024, accounting for 32.1% of total internet services revenue[13] - Global other regions contributed 42.8% of total revenue in Q2 2024, amounting to RMB 38,075,160 thousand[103] - Xiaomi Technology India Private Limited faces investigations and notices from Indian authorities regarding compliance with income tax, customs, and foreign exchange regulations, with INR 46,165,134,000 (approximately CNY 4,023,291,000) restricted as of June 30, 2024[117] Gross Margin and Costs - Xiaomi's overall gross margin in Q2 2024 was 20.7%, with the smartphone×AIoT segment at 21.1% and smart EV segment at 15.4%[7] - Total cost of sales increased by 32.5% from RMB 53.2 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 70.5 billion in Q2 2024[26] - Gross profit increased by 29.9% from RMB 14.2 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 18.4 billion in Q2 2024, with gross margin decreasing from 21.0% to 20.7%[34] - Total gross profit and gross margin for Q2 2024 were RMB 18.4 billion and 20.7%, respectively, compared to RMB 14.2 billion in Q2 2023[35] - Total cost of sales increased by 20.1% to RMB 70.5 billion in Q2 2024, with the smartphone segment accounting for 46.0% of total revenue[55][59] - Gross profit rose by 9.3% to RMB 18.4 billion in Q2 2024, while gross margin declined to 20.7% from 22.3% in Q1 2024[64] - Gross profit increased 29.9% YoY to RMB 18.39 billion in Q2 2024 and 36.8% YoY to RMB 35.22 billion in H1 2024[92] - Cost of goods sold and license fees for Q2 2024 were RMB 64,865,246 thousand, compared to RMB 47,641,858 thousand in Q2 2023[105] Cash and Financial Position - Xiaomi's adjusted net profit in Q2 2024 was RMB 6.2 billion, a 20.1% YoY increase, with cash reserves of RMB 141 billion as of June 30, 2024[7] - Total cash resources as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 141 billion[84] - Cash and cash equivalents as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 39.3358 billion[83] - Operating cash flow for Q2 2024 was RMB 11.8176 billion[83] - Investment cash outflow for Q2 2024 was RMB 8.0019 billion[83] - Financing cash inflow for Q2 2024 was RMB 566.3 million[83] - Capital expenditures for Q2 2024 totaled RMB 1.4313 billion[87] - Total borrowings as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 30 billion[86] - Fair value changes of investments for the period ended June 30, 2024, were RMB 2,853,149 thousand[79] - Total investment portfolio value decreased by 3.4% YoY to RMB 65.4 billion as of June 30, 2024[88] - Company recorded RMB 300 million in after-tax net income from investment disposals in Q2 2024[88] - Total assets increased to RMB 342.18 billion as of June 30, 2024, up from RMB 324.25 billion as of December 31, 2023[94] - Property, plant, and equipment rose to RMB 15.78 billion, a 15% increase from RMB 13.72 billion at the end of 2023[94] - Long-term bank deposits surged to RMB 32.99 billion, an 80% increase from RMB 18.29 billion at the end of 2023[94] - Inventory grew to RMB 51.52 billion, up 16% from RMB 44.42 billion at the end of 2023[94] - Cash and cash equivalents increased to RMB 39.34 billion, up 17% from RMB 33.63 billion at the end of 2023[94] - Total equity rose to RMB 173.20 billion, up 5.4% from RMB 164.26 billion at the end of 2023[95] - Net cash from operating activities was RMB 2.53 billion, compared to RMB 20.16 billion in the same period of 2023[96] - Trade receivables and bills as of June 30, 2024, amounted to RMB 14,217,264 thousand, an increase from RMB 12,467,886 thousand as of December 31, 2023[112] - Inventory as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 54,082,758 thousand, up from RMB 46,599,233 thousand as of December 31, 2023[113] - Trade payables as of June 30, 2024, totaled RMB 66,772,473 thousand, compared to RMB 62,098,500 thousand as of December 31, 2023[116] - Short-term investments measured at fair value through profit or loss as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 18,561,997 thousand, down from RMB 20,193,662 thousand as of December 31, 2023[110] - Long-term investments measured at fair value through profit or loss as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 33,360,313 thousand, compared to RMB 34,444,516 thousand as of December 31, 2023[110] - The company's borrowings as of June 30, 2024, were RMB 21,037,527 thousand, a decrease from RMB 21,673,969 thousand as of December 31, 2023[114] - The credit loss provision for trade receivables and bills as of June 30, 2024, was RMB 568,448 thousand, up from RMB 316,958 thousand as of December 31, 2023[112] Sales and Marketing - Sales and marketing expenses grew by 31.8% from RMB 4.5 billion in Q2 2023 to RMB 5.9 billion in Q2 2024, driven by increased overseas logistics, advertising, and personnel costs[39] - Sales and promotion expenses rose by 7.6% from RMB 5.5 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 5.9 billion in Q2 2024[71] Other Income and Expenses - Other income increased by 55.5% from RMB 200 million in Q2 2023 to RMB 300 million in Q2 2024, mainly due to higher government subsidies[41] - Other income increased by 82.5% from RMB 200 million in Q1 2024 to RMB 300 million in Q2 2024[72] - Financial income net decreased by 48.6% from RMB 1.5 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 800 million in Q2 2024[74] - Income tax expenses increased by 53.4% from RMB 1.0 billion in Q1 2024 to RMB 1.6 billion in Q2 2024[75] - Other net gains/(losses) shifted from a loss of RMB 69.5 million in Q1 2024 to a gain of RMB 549.6 million in Q2 2024[73] - Employee benefits expenses for Q2 2024 were RMB 5,358,712 thousand, up from RMB 4,418,111 thousand in Q2 2023[105] - Current income tax expense for Q2 2024 was RMB 1,626,168 thousand, compared to RMB 1,476,060 thousand in Q2 2023[106] - Total compensation expenses increased by 3.4% QoQ to RMB 5.4 billion in Q2 2024[88] Share
小米集团-W:人车家生态进入增长周期,占据产业链核心生态位
国投证券· 2024-08-19 23:38
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy - A" rating to the company with a 6-month target price of HKD 20.57, based on a valuation of HKD 512.52 billion for 2024 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is entering a growth cycle with its "people, car, home" ecosystem, leveraging its hardware, IoT, and automotive segments to enhance monetization efficiency [1][2]. - The "Iron Triangle" business model, which combines hardware acquisition, new retail strategies, and internet monetization, has established the company as a global technology player [1][2]. - The company achieved a global smartphone market share ranking in the top three, with overseas revenue accounting for 44.9% of total income in 2023 [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in April 2010 and focuses on smartphones, smart hardware, and IoT platforms, utilizing a business model that emphasizes hardware acquisition and internet monetization [10][11]. - The company has expanded its retail channels significantly, with over 10,600 physical stores by February 2023, enhancing its market reach [13]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on three main hardware terminals: smartphones, smart cars, and IoT products, which are all experiencing rapid growth [1][2]. - The first electric vehicle, Su7, received positive market feedback, with over 88,100 orders in its first month and expectations to exceed 100,000 deliveries by November 2024 [1][10]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of HKD 755.07 billion in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 26.95%, with adjusted net profit reaching a historical high [17][19]. - The revenue structure is diversifying, with smartphones contributing 58%, IoT and consumer products 30%, and internet services 11% in 2023 [19][20]. Market Position - The company has successfully positioned itself as a top-three global smartphone manufacturer, with a significant presence in international markets, particularly in Europe and Southeast Asia [24][26]. - The company is actively pursuing high-end market segments, with a notable increase in the sales proportion of high-end smartphones in China [27][28].
小米集团-W:2Q24E preview: expect resilient core earnings with better EV profitability; Reiterate BUY
招银国际· 2024-08-05 01:31
5 Aug 2024 CMB International Global Markets | Equity Research | Company Update Xiaomi (1810 HK) 2Q24E preview: expect resilient core earnings with better EV profitability; Reiterate BUY Xiaomi will report 2Q24 results in late August. We estimate 2Q revenue/adj. net income of RMB 89.2bn/5.1bn (+30%/flattish YoY), 6%/15% above consensus, mainly driven by strong smartphone sales, strength in AIoT/internet and better EV sales with improving profitability. Looking ahead into 2H24E, we are positive on Xiaomi's gl ...
小米集团-W:2Q24E 预览 : 预期核心收益弹性 , 电动汽车盈利能力更好 ; 重申买入
招银国际· 2024-08-05 01:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 24.29, reflecting a potential upside of 51.0% from the current price of HKD 16.08 [2][3][13]. Core Insights - The company is expected to report resilient core earnings and improved profitability in its electric vehicle (EV) segment, driven by strong smartphone sales and growth in AIoT and internet services [2][10]. - The global smartphone market share for the company has increased to 15%, with a year-on-year shipment growth of 27%, outperforming the industry average of 12% [2][3]. - The company anticipates a 30% year-on-year revenue growth for Q2 2024, with total revenue estimated at RMB 89.226 billion and adjusted net profit at RMB 4.459 billion [2][8]. Revenue and Profitability Summary - Revenue projections for FY24E are RMB 343.507 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 26.8%. Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 21.785 billion, reflecting a 13% increase [3][10]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) for smartphones is projected to remain between 9% and 13%, while the GPM for AIoT is expected to be around 19.6% [2][10]. - The company’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for FY24E is estimated at RMB 0.88, with a consensus EPS of RMB 0.74, indicating a 19% higher projection than consensus [10][12]. Market Performance and Valuation - The company’s stock has shown a 31.8% increase over the past six months, outperforming the market [5]. - The report highlights that the current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is attractive at 17.0x for FY24E and 14.8x for FY25E [2][10]. - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, assigning a P/E of 15x for its smartphone, AIoT, and internet businesses, and a P/S of 0.75x for its EV business [13][14].
小米集团-W:智能手机出货量保持同比高增,持续加码智能制造
东方证券· 2024-08-04 08:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.12 HKD based on a 28x PE valuation for 2024 [1][6][3]. Core Insights - The company's smartphone shipments continue to show strong year-on-year growth, with a 27% increase in Q2 2024, reaching 42.3 million units, securing a 15% global market share [1]. - The company is focusing on high-end products, launching new models in its foldable smartphone series, which are designed to compete with flagship models [1]. - The establishment of new manufacturing facilities, including a 2.4 billion RMB factory in Changping with an annual capacity of 10 million flagship phones, indicates a commitment to smart manufacturing [1]. - The electric vehicle segment is also performing well, with the SU7 model expected to exceed 10,000 deliveries in July 2024, contributing to the company's "smart home" ecosystem [1]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.62, 0.77, and 0.93 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting adjustments in revenue and expense forecasts [1][6]. - The company's revenue is expected to recover, with a forecast of 336.97 billion RMB in 2024, representing a 24% year-on-year growth [2][11]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve to 19.8% in 2024, with net profit margins also expected to rise [2][11].