Group 1 - Xiaomi Group-W has received net inflows from southbound funds for five consecutive days, with a total net purchase amount of 1.51 billion HKD, and the stock price has increased by 9.35% during this period [1][2] - On December 24, Xiaomi Group-W recorded a trading volume of 2.248 billion HKD through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with a net purchase amount of 365 million HKD [2] - The total trading volume for active stocks on the Hong Kong Stock Connect on December 24 was 15.969 billion HKD, with a net purchase amount of 2.056 billion HKD [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HK$34.00, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price of HK$28.30 [2][3][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the structural growth opportunities for Xiaomi in the Southeast Asian market, driven by smartphone replacement cycles and increasing IoT product penetration [6][17][22]. - Despite challenges in overseas markets, Xiaomi's revenue contribution from international markets has increased to 45% in 2023, up from 36% in 2020, indicating a shift towards emerging markets as key growth drivers [17][19]. - The report highlights the potential for Xiaomi to capture a larger market share in Southeast Asia, with expectations of an increase from 15% in Q3 2024 to approximately 18% by 2026 [46][48]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Xiaomi are as follows: RMB 356,281 million for 2024E, RMB 423,470 million for 2025E, and RMB 465,323 million for 2026E [11]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are projected at RMB 0.99 for 2024E, RMB 1.08 for 2025E, and RMB 1.24 for 2026E, reflecting a growth trajectory [11]. - The report notes a significant increase in the average price of smartphones in Southeast Asia, with potential market value growth of 13% driven by rising prices [35][36]. Market Opportunities - The Southeast Asian smartphone market is expected to see a structural growth opportunity, with a projected increase in smartphone shipments to 17 million units by 2026, driven by a shortening replacement cycle [29][31]. - The report identifies that the average smartphone price in Southeast Asia is currently lower than in China, suggesting room for price increases as 5G penetration grows [35][38]. - Xiaomi's IoT product offerings are expected to drive significant traffic and sales growth in the region, with a focus on enhancing product accessibility and expanding SKU variety [62][67]. Competitive Landscape - Xiaomi ranks among the top three smartphone vendors in Southeast Asia, alongside Samsung and Oppo, with a competitive edge in both high-end and low-end market segments [46][48]. - The report indicates that Xiaomi's market share has fluctuated due to challenges faced in overseas markets, but there is optimism for recovery and growth in market share through strategic initiatives [46][48]. - The report also highlights the importance of enhancing retail experiences and expanding distribution networks to capture market opportunities effectively [59][63].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting optimism about its growth prospects, particularly in high-end smartphones, IoT, and automotive sectors [2][5] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 92.5 billion (YoY +30.5%, QoQ +4.1%) and net profit of RMB 5.34 billion (YoY +9.7%, QoQ +5.3%) [1] - The smartphone business achieved revenue of RMB 47.45 billion (YoY +13.9%, QoQ +2.0%) with a gross margin of 11.7%, driven by higher ASPs due to increased high-end smartphone sales [1] - IoT and lifestyle products revenue grew to RMB 26.10 billion (YoY +26.3%), with strong growth in major appliances, tablets, and wearables [1] - The smart electric vehicle business reported revenue of RMB 8.04 billion (QoQ +49.1%) with a gross margin of 17.1%, delivering 39,800 vehicles in Q3 and targeting 130,000 units for the full year [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 355.7 billion in 2024 to RMB 515.8 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from RMB 19.9 billion to RMB 32.1 billion over the same period [1] - The company's EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 0.78 in 2024 to RMB 1.26 in 2026, with a P/E ratio declining from 34.1x to 21.0x [1][5] Business Highlights - The smartphone segment is on track to achieve its annual shipment target of 170 million units, with flagship models performing exceptionally well [1] - IoT and lifestyle products, particularly major appliances, are expected to grow by 50% YoY in 2024 [1] - The automotive business is gaining momentum, with 100,000 vehicles delivered by November 2024 and a full-year target of 130,000 units [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Xiaomi Group-W (1810) with a target price of **32.91 HKD**, representing a **17.54%** upside from the current price [2][5] Core Views - Xiaomi's smartphone, IoT, and automotive businesses are entering a positive growth cycle, with revenue slightly exceeding expectations and strong cash reserves [2] - The company achieved **925 billion RMB** in revenue in Q3 2024, a **30.5% YoY increase**, with adjusted net profit reaching **63 billion RMB**, up **18.7% YoY** [2] - Cash reserves stood at **1516 billion RMB**, reflecting a **9.7% YoY growth** [2] Smartphone Business - Xiaomi's smartphone business is showing initial success in the high-end market, with revenue reaching **828 billion RMB**, a **16.8% YoY increase** [2] - Shipments grew **3.1% YoY** to **431 million units**, driven by increased domestic high-end smartphone shipments and a **10.6% YoY increase in ASP** to **1102 RMB** [2] - The newly launched Xiaomi 15 series achieved strong sales, with expectations of further competitiveness in the **4000-6000 RMB price segment** [2] IoT Business - IoT revenue reached **261 billion RMB**, a **26.3% YoY increase**, with gross margin hitting a record high of **20.8%**, up **2.9 percentage points YoY** [2] - Strong performance in domestic smart home appliances and global tablet/wearable businesses is expected to continue benefiting from national subsidies and holiday promotions [2] Internet Services - Internet services revenue grew **9.1% YoY** to **85 billion RMB**, with gross margin improving **3.1 percentage points YoY** to **77.5%** [2] - Global MAUs reached **686 million**, a **10.1% YoY increase**, with overseas internet services revenue growing **18.3% YoY** to **27 billion RMB** [2] Automotive Business - Xiaomi's automotive business delivered **39,790 units** in Q3 2024, with monthly deliveries stabilizing at **10,000 units** [2] - The company aims to achieve **200,000 units** in annual deliveries, with gross margin improving **1.7 percentage points YoY** to **17.1%** [2] - The SU7 Ultra model, with an ASP of **239,000 RMB**, is expected to drive profitability as scale expands and promotional costs decrease [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from **355.9 billion RMB** in 2024 to **518.4 billion RMB** in 2026, with net profit increasing from **19.9 billion RMB** to **31.8 billion RMB** over the same period [5] - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from **25.1 billion RMB** in 2024 to **37.1 billion RMB** in 2026 [5] Valuation - The target price of **32.91 HKD** is based on **18x PE** for core businesses and **12x PS** for the automotive segment, implying a **17.54% upside** [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HK$34.00, reflecting an 18% upside potential from the current price of HK$28.80 [1][10][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Xiaomi's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and adjusted net profit surpassing forecasts by 3% and 4% respectively, driven by strong IoT revenue and electric vehicle shipments [1][3]. - The management remains optimistic about future expansion, particularly in the electric vehicle segment, where gross margins have improved to 17.1% [1][10]. - The smartphone market outlook is positive, with projected shipment growth of 7% year-on-year in 2025, supported by the strong sales of the Xiaomi 15 series [1][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Xiaomi reported total revenue of RMB 92.5 billion, a 31% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit of RMB 6.25 billion, reflecting a 4% growth [3][6]. - The smartphone segment generated RMB 47.45 billion in revenue, while the IoT segment contributed RMB 26.1 billion, both showing strong growth [3][6]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted upwards by 2%-4%, primarily due to higher expected smartphone and electric vehicle shipments [9][10]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025 is projected to be RMB 27.64 billion, an increase of 2% from previous estimates [9][10]. Valuation - The report uses a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for valuation, maintaining a target multiple of 28.5 times the 2025 adjusted earnings, reflecting confidence in the smartphone market recovery and Xiaomi's strong position in the electric vehicle sector [10][11]. - The target price adjustment from HK$33.00 to HK$34.00 is based on updated profit forecasts and reflects a potential upside of 18.1% from the current stock price [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group [5][7]. Core Views - Xiaomi Group's Q3 2024 revenue reached 92.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.5% [2]. - The company is expected to see continued growth in smartphone market share, improved cost cycles, and expansion in IoT and automotive sectors [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue breakdown: smartphones 47.5 billion, IoT 26.1 billion, internet services 8.5 billion, and automotive 9.7 billion [2]. - Adjusted net profit for the quarter was 6.25 billion, with automotive segment showing an adjusted loss of 1.5 billion [2]. Smartphone Segment - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments in Q3 2024 were 43.1 million units, ranking third globally with a market share of approximately 13.8% [3]. - The domestic market share increased to 14.7%, with strong performance in Africa and Latin America [3]. - The average selling price (ASP) of domestic smartphones reached 1,101 yuan, with a high-end product ratio of 20.1% [3]. IoT Segment - IoT revenue for Q3 2024 was 26.1 billion, up 26% year-on-year, with a record gross margin of 20.8% [4]. - The shift from an ecosystem model to self-developed products is expected to enhance quality and cost efficiency [4]. Automotive Segment - As of November 13, 2024, Xiaomi has produced 100,000 vehicles, with a delivery target of 130,000 for the year [4]. - The automotive gross margin is anticipated to improve due to increased delivery scale and batch changes [4]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 356.8 billion, 456.8 billion, and 529.9 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 28%, and 16% [5]. - Adjusted net profit for the core consumer electronics business is projected to be 31.7 billion, 35.9 billion, and 42.2 billion for the same period [5]. Valuation - The report estimates a target price of 33 HKD for Xiaomi Group based on a P/E ratio of 15x for the consumer electronics segment and a P/S ratio of 2x for the automotive segment [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of HKD 34.1, indicating a potential upside of 20.5% from the recent closing price of HKD 28.3 [3]. Core Insights - Xiaomi Group's total revenue for Q3 2024 reached RMB 92.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%, surpassing market expectations. All business segments showed robust growth, particularly the "Smartphone × AIoT" segment, which generated RMB 82.8 billion, up 16.8% year-on-year. The innovative automotive business reported revenue of RMB 9.7 billion, with nearly 40,000 SU7 vehicles delivered in Q3, aiming for a total of 130,000 deliveries for the year [1][2]. - The smartphone segment recorded revenue of RMB 47.5 billion in Q3 2024, a 13.9% increase year-on-year, with a shipment of 43.1 million units, reflecting a 3.1% growth. The average selling price (ASP) per unit rose by 10.6% to RMB 1,102.2. Xiaomi's market share in mainland China increased by 1.2 percentage points to 14.7%, ranking fourth in the region [2]. - The Internet services segment also showed steady growth, with revenue reaching RMB 8.5 billion in Q3 2024, a 9.1% year-on-year increase. The number of global monthly active users reached 685.8 million, up 10.1% year-on-year [2]. Financial Summary - In Q3 2024, Xiaomi's adjusted net profit was RMB 6.25 billion, a 4.4% increase year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations. The gross margin for the IoT and lifestyle products segment reached a historical high of 20.8%, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - The automotive segment's revenue for Q3 was RMB 9.7 billion, with a gross margin of 17.1%. The adjusted net loss for this segment was RMB 1.5 billion, indicating controlled losses as production capacity ramps up [2][3]. - The report projects continued revenue growth, with Q4 2024 expected to generate RMB 96.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.6% [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching a historical high of 92.5 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 30.5%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 2.5% [2] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 was recorded at 6.25 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 5.8% [2] - The automotive business showed significant improvement, with a gross margin of 17.1%, which is notably higher than the market expectation of 12.1% [2] - The report anticipates further improvement in automotive gross margins in Q4, driven by increased production capacity and reduced unit production costs [2] - The smartphone segment demonstrated a strong performance with a year-over-year shipment increase of 3.1%, and the average selling price (ASP) rose by 10.6% year-over-year [2][4] - The IoT business continued to grow robustly, with major appliances driving margin improvements, achieving a gross margin of 20.8% in the latest quarter [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was 92.5 billion yuan, up 30.5% year-over-year, and adjusted net profit was 6.25 billion yuan, exceeding expectations [2] - The automotive business revenue reached 9.7 billion yuan, surpassing market expectations by 8.9% [2] - The company expects revenues of 357.4 billion yuan, 436 billion yuan, and 515.7 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 31.9%, 22%, and 18.3% [4] Business Segments - Smartphone revenue was 47.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 13.9% [2] - IoT revenue was 26.1 billion yuan, up 26.3% year-over-year [2] - The automotive segment's gross margin improved significantly, indicating a positive trend for future quarters [2] Future Outlook - The report projects adjusted net profits of 24 billion yuan, 28.1 billion yuan, and 35.7 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 24.6%, 16.8%, and 27% [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the strong market response to its new product launches, particularly the Xiaomi 15 series, which has seen rapid sales growth [2][4]

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 36.00 [1][4] Core Views - Xiaomi's 3Q24 revenue grew by 30% YoY, with smartphone xAIoT business revenue increasing by 16.8% YoY and non-GAAP net profit rising by 4%, exceeding expectations by 3% [1] - The automotive and IoT businesses achieved record-high gross margins, with automotive gross margin at 17.1%, surpassing the industry average of 16.27% for BYD, NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto in 2Q24 [1] - IoT gross margin increased by 1 percentage point QoQ to 20.8%, driven by product innovation, organizational reforms, and channel development [1] - The company expects SUV launch in 2025Q1 to drive rapid revenue growth, with smartphone gross margin recovery and reduced automotive losses contributing to a 55% non-GAAP profit growth in 2025 [1] Automotive Business - Automotive revenue in 3Q24 reached RMB 9.7 billion, with 39,800 units delivered at an average price of RMB 238,700 [2] - Gross margin for the automotive business improved by 1.7 percentage points QoQ to 17.1%, attributed to rapid scaling and strong supply chain bargaining power [2] - Management expects further gross margin improvement in 4Q24 and raised the 2024 delivery target to 130,000 units [2] - The company anticipates SUV launch in 2025Q1, with overall sales expected to reach 400,000 units in 2025 [2] Smartphone xAIoT Business - Smartphone shipments in 3Q24 were 42.75 million units, up 3% YoY and 1.1% QoQ, with a global market share of 13.6% [3] - IoT sales grew by 26% YoY, with gross margin reaching a record high of 20.8%, driven by overseas revenue, increased share of major appliances and wearables, and refined operations [3] - Smartphone gross margin declined by 0.5 percentage points QoQ to 11.7% due to rising raw material costs [3] - DRAM price reductions and the expansion of major appliance business overseas are expected to drive IoT growth in 2025 [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at RMB 354.7 billion, RMB 471.6 billion, and RMB 574.1 billion, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 30.9%, 33.0%, and 21.8% [5] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is forecasted at RMB 25.0 billion, RMB 38.6 billion, and RMB 47.6 billion, respectively [5] - EPS for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is expected to be RMB 1.00, RMB 1.55, and RMB 1.91, respectively [5] Valuation - The target price of HKD 36.00 is based on a SOTP valuation method, with a 22x 2025E target PE [16] - The existing business is valued at 17.1x 2025E PE, while the automotive business is valued at 2x 2025E PS [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company, suggesting continued active monitoring of its performance and potential growth opportunities [15]. Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 92.5 billion RMB in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.5%, with adjusted net profit reaching 6.3 billion RMB, up 4.4% year-on-year [4]. - The smartphone business continues to strengthen, with revenue of 47.5 billion RMB in Q3 2024, a 13.9% increase year-on-year, and a market share of 13.8% globally [7]. - The IoT and lifestyle products segment saw revenue growth of 26.3% year-on-year, reaching 26.1 billion RMB, with a record high gross margin of 20.8% [11]. - The electric vehicle segment reported revenue of 9.7 billion RMB in Q3 2024, a 52.3% increase from the previous quarter, with a gross margin of 17.1% [13]. Summary by Sections Smartphone Business - The company sold 43.1 million smartphones in Q3 2024, a 3.1% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price (ASP) of 1,102 RMB, up 10.6% [7]. - The company ranked third globally in smartphone shipments for 17 consecutive quarters, with a market share increase in mainland China to 14.7% [7]. IoT and Lifestyle Products - The company achieved a record high of 6.86 million monthly active users globally, a 10.1% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in air conditioning, refrigerator, and washing machine sales [11]. - Internet services revenue reached 8.5 billion RMB in Q3 2024, with a gross margin of 77.5%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [11]. Electric Vehicle Segment - The company delivered 39,790 units of the Xiaomi SU7 in Q3 2024, with an average price of 238,650 RMB per unit, and expects to exceed 20,000 units in monthly deliveries post-October [13]. - The upcoming Xiaomi SU7 Ultra is priced at 817,900 RMB, with significant pre-orders indicating strong market interest [13].