张玮航 国联民生证券医药分析师: 各位投资者，大家这个上午好。那个开年第一天，大家开工大吉。那首先感谢大家来参加 我们国联民生。医药团队的这个电话会，今天是那个北海康成的这个近期情况的更新的电 话会议。我是那个，就是国内民生的研究员张金阳，在线跟我一起主持的还有我们团队的 胡若冰胡博，还有那个郭王洋。那节前，我们团队也组织了在康城的这个电话会，当时是 从这个罕见病行业的角度，这个当时这个邀请了薛总和百洋的这个副总来跟大家做了一个 沟通。那今天，这个电话会的主要的这个内容，是盖康城其实在春节期间，我们看到了一 个公告，这个配收了这个 8400 万股的这个股份给这个药明生物子公司，募集了 2 亿港元。 这个公告里面这个说这 2 亿港元的 12%用于商业化这个产品的运营。28%用于这个管线 的这个研发开支，60%用于这个结算集团的贸易应付款，那也，这个另外也补充公告了这 个售出现有股票的这个单位，其中一名服务供应商向本集团提供发展这个策略咨询，而另 一名的这个服务供应商就是，就要药物监管审批事宜，向本集团提供这个监管咨询，这些 相关的公告内容，我相信大家也看到了。那我们今天，针对这件事，也是很荣幸的再次请 到了这个 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [5] Core Insights - The underlying logic of the current pharmaceutical industry era is innovation and international expansion, with a focus on innovative drugs and technology-driven sectors [2][3] - The report highlights the strong performance of the CRO market and suggests a dual investment strategy focusing on both "0 to 1" technology innovation and low-position stocks [2][3] - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of BD (Business Development) transactions in innovative drugs, with significant growth expected in 2026 [4][15] Summary by Sections 1. Key Events in the Pharmaceutical Industry During the Spring Festival - Innovative drug BD transactions have seen a strong start, with significant overseas development and registration progress for key products [13][14] - The total amount of BD transactions for innovative drugs in China for 2026 has already surpassed one-third of the total for 2025 [15] - The revision of the National Essential Medicines List Management Measures may signal changes in the essential medicines directory [28] 2. Pharmaceutical Market Review and Hotspot Tracking - The pharmaceutical sector's performance was relatively weak, with a weekly decline of 0.81%, ranking 20th among all industries [34][38] - The total trading volume for pharmaceuticals was 401.12 billion yuan, accounting for 3.83% of the total market, below the historical average of 7.09% [55] - The report notes a rising valuation level for the pharmaceutical industry, with a PE ratio of 29.25, which is below the historical average [52] 3. Stock Performance Review - The report lists the top-performing stocks, including Dongyangguang and Zhendemedical, while highlighting the underperformers like Huayuan Biology and *ST Sailong [58][59]

Group 1 - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratio are Haotian International Investment (71.36%), China Telecom (71.32%), and Green Power Environmental (68.88%) [1][2] - Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group-W, and Meituan-W have seen the largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days, with increases of +1.391 billion, +983 million, and +931 million respectively [1][2] - The companies with the largest decreases in holding amounts over the last five trading days include WuXi Biologics (-481 million), Zijin Mining (-447 million), and Southern Hengsheng Technology (-344 million) [1][4] Group 2 - The latest holding ratios for the top 20 companies in Hong Kong Stock Connect show Haotian International Investment with 7.919 billion shares, China Telecom with 9.900 billion shares, and Green Power Environmental with 0.279 billion shares [2] - The top 10 companies with the largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days include China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (+315 million) and Zhaoyi Innovation (+309 million) [2][4] - The top 10 companies with the largest decreases in holding amounts include Pop Mart (-294 million) and SenseTime-W (-277 million) [4]

前10大净流入比榜 | 股票名称 | 净流入比↓ | 净流入(元) | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 南方东西精选(03441) | 1937.29% | 1.88 亿 | 11.650（+0.52%） | | 远大医药(00512) | 149.39% | 3040.81 万 | 7.780（-1.52%） | | 安徽皖通高速公路 | 144.79% | 1238.33 万 | 13.580（+1.80%） | 药明生物（02269）、紫金矿业（02899）、南方恒生科技（03033）南向资金净流出金额位列市场前 三，分别净流出-4.93 亿、-4.57 亿、-3.63 亿 在净流入比方面，南方东西精选（03441）、远大医药（00512）、安徽皖通高速公路（00995）以 1937.29%、149.39%、144.79%位列市场前三。 在净流出比方面，北京首都机场股份（00694）、雅迪控股（01585）、中国能源建设（03996） 以-209.12%、-92.61%、-78.78%位列市场前三。 前10大资金净流入榜 | 股票名称 | 净流入(元)↓ | 净流入比 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that BlackRock's long position in WuXi Biologics H shares has decreased from 5.22% to 4.51% as of February 16 [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Beihai Kangcheng-B (01228) announced a share placement to WuXi Biologics, leading to a significant increase in its stock price [1] - The company plans to issue 84.03 million new shares, representing approximately 14.12% of the enlarged issued share capital, at a price of HKD 2.38 per share, which is a discount of about 14.7% compared to the closing price of HKD 2.79 on February 13 [1] - The net proceeds from the placement are expected to reach HKD 199 million, with around 60% allocated for settling trade payables, approximately 28% for R&D expenses of existing product lines, and the remaining 12% for working capital and regulatory maintenance of commercialized products [1] Group 2 - Following the completion of the placement, WuXi Biologics' stake in Beihai Kangcheng will increase to approximately 16.27% [1]

Core Viewpoint - North Sea Kangcheng-B (01228.HK) has entered into a subscription agreement with WuXi Biologics HealthCare Venture, agreeing to issue and the subscriber agreeing to purchase a total of 84.036 million subscription shares at a price of HKD 2.38 per share, representing approximately 16.44% of the existing issued shares as of the announcement date [1] Group 1 - The total amount raised from the subscription is expected to be approximately HKD 200 million, with the estimated net proceeds from the subscription being around HKD 199 million [1] - The company plans to use the net proceeds for (i) working capital and regulatory maintenance for commercialized products; (ii) research and development expenses for existing product lines; and (iii) settling trade payables of the group [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical sector is entering a golden development period, presenting a once-in-a-century investment opportunity due to unmet global medical needs and significant advancements in the industry [4][9]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - In 2025, the total value of out-licensing (BD) transactions for Chinese innovative drugs reached $135.7 billion, a significant increase from $51.9 billion in 2024, with upfront payments rising to $7 billion from $4.1 billion [4][9]. - In January 2026 alone, the transaction volume reached $30 billion, with upfront payments of $3 billion, indicating a strong start to the year [4][9]. - The proportion of external procurement pipelines from China for multinational pharmaceutical companies surged from 10% in 2020 to 42% in 2025, highlighting China's growing importance in the global pharmaceutical landscape [4][9]. Group 2: Clinical Milestones and Innovations - 2026 is identified as a critical year for validating major drugs, with several key clinical milestones expected to emerge, potentially leading to a re-evaluation of industry value [5][9]. - Notable clinical trials include Kangfang Biotech's AK112 for non-small cell lung cancer, which is anticipated to redefine first-line treatment standards [5][9]. - The ADC sector is also poised for significant developments, with Kelong Botai's SKB264 and Baili Tianheng's BL-B01D1 expected to release important phase III clinical data [5][9]. Group 3: Impact on Related Industries - The CXO (Contract Research Organization) sector, closely tied to innovative pharmaceuticals, is expected to benefit from the technological advancements in drug development, leading to a recovery in industry sentiment [5][10]. - Companies within the "WuXi" ecosystem, such as WuXi Biologics and WuXi AppTec, are experiencing a resurgence in orders and performance, reaching historical highs despite previous unfavorable U.S. policies [10].

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that WuXi Biologics (02269) has exceeded market consensus and Morgan Stanley's expectations for its 2025 performance, raising the target price from HKD 37 to HKD 51 and extending the target price deadline to December 2026 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - The company expects full-year revenue to reach RMB 21.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, aligning closely with market consensus and Morgan Stanley's forecast. Net profit is projected to be RMB 4.9 billion, exceeding market consensus and Morgan Stanley's estimates by approximately 11% and 17% respectively [1] - After adjusting for one-time costs, the non-IFRS net profit is expected to rise by 22% to RMB 6.59 billion, reinforcing Morgan Stanley's confidence in WuXi Biologics' growth prospects for this year and beyond [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley has raised its sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 5%, and for 2028 and beyond by 6% to 9%, due to improved expectations for new order acquisition momentum. The firm now predicts sales growth of 17.3% and 18.0% for 2026 and 2027 respectively [2] - Due to better-than-expected gross margin expansion, Morgan Stanley has also increased its gross margin assumptions by 2 to 3 percentage points, forecasting gross margins of 46.0%, 46.2%, and 46.5% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - These updates translate into a 13% to 23% upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027, with adjusted net profit for shareholders expected to grow by 17.4% and 20.9% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [2]

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: Morgan Stanley's report indicates that WuXi Biologics (02269) has exceeded market consensus and Morgan Stanley's expectations for its 2025 performance, leading to an increase in target price from HKD 37 to HKD 51 and maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - Company expects full-year revenue of RMB 21.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, aligning with market consensus and Morgan Stanley's forecast [1] - Net profit is projected to reach RMB 4.9 billion, exceeding market consensus and Morgan Stanley's estimates by approximately 11% and 17% respectively [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley has raised its sales forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 5%, and for 2028 and beyond by 6% to 9%, due to improved expectations for new order acquisition momentum [2] - The firm now predicts sales growth of 17.3% and 18.0% for 2026 and 2027 respectively [2] - Due to better-than-expected gross margin expansion, Morgan Stanley has adjusted its gross margin assumptions upward by 2 to 3 percentage points, forecasting gross margins of 46.0%, 46.2%, and 46.5% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2]