保险观点更新：把握宽基抛压缓释后的顺周期龙头机会 评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：葛玉翔 执业证书编号：S0740525040002 Email：geyx01@zts.com.cn 分析师：蒋峤 执业证书编号：S0740517090005 Email：jiangqiao@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | --- | 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 事件：我们认为自去年 12 月以来保险板块先后历经 " 开门红预期好转 —— 长端利率回 升 —— 指数上攻强化利润弹性 " 的顺周期逻辑，"短期看资金面抛压缓解，中期看"存 款搬家 & 慢牛持续"提振价值与利润增速，长期看顺周期兑现告别利差损隐忧"，我们 重申板块当前投资价值。 基本状况 行业-市场走势对比 境内宽基 ETF 交易层面压制逐步出现转向迹象，广发中证港股通非银 ETF 持续净流 入彰显板块基本面支撑。2026 年 1 月第二个交易周以来，主要宽基 ETF 成交量明显 放大，呈现显著净流出态势。我们对 1 月 15 日至 1 月 28 日之间累计宽基 ETF 净流 出规模超过百亿元所跟踪指数进行加权，排序如下：沪深 300 指数（62.0%） ...

梅州市宇顺农业科技发展公司负责人说道，"经营农业经常会遇到自然灾害、病虫害、价格波动等影响，有了政策性果树险和 金柚价格险，让我们发展更安心、更有底气，感谢国家好政策、感谢人保财险保障！" 发展乡村特色产业是推进乡村全面振兴的基础，要加强科技应用，推动农文旅融合，不断延伸产业链、增加附加值，带动更 多农民群众增收致富。作为扎根广东梅州的金融主力军，人保财险梅州市分公司积极推动党建工作与农业保险深度融合，与 农业农村局联学共建，立足区域发展需求，打造"一园一品"高品质金柚示范点，深化农业保险"保防减救赔"一体化建设，构 建"保险＋科技＋服务"模式新型农业生产技术服务体系，整合保险资源与现代农业科技力量，实现农民增产增收与生态效益 的双重目标，用实打实的"人保担当"守护金柚"甜蜜事业"，为促进区域特色农业高质量发展提供保险保障。 人保财险梅州市分公司用保险倾情守护金柚产业发展 托起"硒望"田 精准赋能乡村全面振兴 革命老区河北保定阜平县地处太行山深处，曾是全国重点贫困县。人保财险保定阜平支公司积极巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，深 化党建业务融合，推动保险创新融入服务乡村全面振兴战略，打造当地特色富硒黑花生产业量身专属保险 ...

1月28日金融一线消息，国家金融监督管理总局发布批复，核准李玲中国人民财产保险股份有限公司董 事的任职资格。 1月28日金融一线消息，国家金融监督管理总局发布批复，核准李玲中国人民财产保险股份有限公司董 事的任职资格。 责任编辑：秦艺 责任编辑：秦艺 ...

截至目前，人保财险重庆分公司"新重庆人才险"已承办136家科技创新企业的财产一切险，累计保额约 128亿元；承保人才意外伤害保险业务793笔，累计保额超18亿元。 人保财险重庆分公司相关负责人表示，下一步，公司将加强与各区(县)行业主管部门和科研院所、科技 企业、高校、医疗机构等人才集聚单位的对接，聚力做好赋能人才创新创业的金融服务，助推地方政府 和企事业单位吸引人才、留住人才和用好人才。(人保财险重庆分公司) 近日，"新重庆人才险"在重庆巴南区落地，人保财险重庆分公司为巴南区115名人才提供风险保障约 8070万元，覆盖意外身故、残疾给付，意外医疗费用补偿等保障责任，为当地人才创新创业注入活力。 据介绍，人保财险巴南属地机构在巴南区卫生医疗系统试点推行"新重庆人才险"统保，迭代升级人才金 融服务，为人才打造"健康有保障、创业无顾虑"的坚实后盾，提升人才的归属感和荣誉感，优化当地人 才生态与营商环境。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial sector [7] Core Insights - The non-bank sector has shown weak overall performance this week, but some companies have disclosed high profit growth forecasts for 2025. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued guidelines to promote the return to fundamentals in the public offering securities investment fund industry, which is expected to drive long-term stable development [2][4] - The market trading volume has decreased, yet remains at historically high levels. The report suggests monitoring the sector's future performance [4] - In the insurance sector, the third-quarter reports have confirmed the logic of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs. The certainty of ROE improvement has increased, and valuations are expected to accelerate recovery [4] - The report highlights the increasing cost-effectiveness of overall allocations and ongoing revaluation in the sector [4] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Sector Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 1.5% this week, with an underperformance of 0.8% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 31 sectors [5] - Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has decreased by 1.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.1% [5] Market Overview - The average daily trading volume in the two markets was 27,988.78 billion yuan, down 19.23% week-on-week, with a daily turnover rate of 2.68%, down 68.47 basis points [5] - The leverage capital scale has rebounded, with a margin balance of 2.72 trillion yuan, up 0.23% [5] Insurance Sector Insights - The cumulative insurance premium income for November 2025 reached 57,629 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.56% [23] - Life insurance income was 41,472 billion yuan, up 9.06% year-on-year, while property insurance income was 16,157 billion yuan, up 3.88% [24] Company Recommendations - The report recommends companies with stable profit growth and dividend rates, including Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, due to their strong business models and market positions [4] - Additional recommendations include New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation levels [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment in this area [1][8]. Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing a continued high level of activity, with significant increases in holdings in both the brokerage and insurance segments. The brokerage sector's holdings increased to 0.99%, while the insurance sector saw a substantial rise to 2.04% [1][7]. - The overall fund net asset value reached 36.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2% [12]. - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from improved market conditions, with a projected net profit increase of 26% year-on-year for Q4 2025 [19][20]. - The insurance sector is poised for strong performance in 2026, driven by favorable market conditions and a significant increase in new policy premiums [22][23]. Summary by Sections Public Fund Market Size - As of Q4 2025, the total net asset value of public funds was 36.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2% [12]. - The non-monetary fund size reached 21.7 trillion yuan, growing 16% year-on-year [12]. Non-Bank Sector Holdings Analysis Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector's holdings increased to 0.99%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, with a total of 7.71 billion shares held, reflecting a 17.9% quarter-on-quarter increase [20]. - Major brokerages such as CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan saw significant increases in their holdings, with respective increases of 0.14 and 0.07 percentage points [20][21]. Insurance Sector - The insurance sector's holdings rose to 2.04%, a significant increase of 0.97 percentage points from the previous quarter, exceeding the benchmark allocation [23]. - Key players like Ping An and China Life experienced notable increases in their holdings, with Ping An's allocation rising by 0.68 percentage points [23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key stocks within the brokerage sector, including Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities, as well as major insurance companies like Ping An and China Life [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the insurance sector, expecting a robust growth in premiums for listed insurance companies in 2025 [1][4]. Core Insights - The insurance index decreased by 4.04%, underperforming the market by 3.42 percentage points, with mixed performances among individual stocks [1]. - The China Insurance Association indicated that the current standard interest rate for ordinary life insurance is 1.89% [2]. - China Taiping announced a significant profit increase for 2025, projecting a rise of approximately 215% to 225% compared to 2024, driven by improved net investment income and favorable tax policies [2]. - The health insurance sector has seen an average compound annual growth rate of over 20% in the past decade [2]. - Agricultural insurance premiums in China have surpassed 155 billion yuan, with nearly 80% coming from government subsidies [2]. Summary by Sections Premium Growth Projections - In 2025, New China Life is expected to achieve premiums of 195.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with a "front-high and back-stable" growth pattern anticipated [3]. - China Pacific Insurance is projected to reach total premiums of 461.7 billion yuan, a 4.4% increase year-on-year, with life insurance being the main growth driver [3]. - ZhongAn Online is expected to achieve premiums of 35.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [3]. Market Dynamics - The report anticipates steady premium growth for listed insurance companies in 2025, primarily driven by life insurance and the expansion of distribution channels [4]. - The property insurance sector is expected to show varied performance, influenced by adjustments in non-auto insurance business [4]. Investment Recommendations - The insurance sector has experienced two weeks of adjustments, mainly due to a slowdown in growth and high valuations [4]. - The report suggests that the performance of listed insurance companies in 2025 will be primarily driven by investment returns, with a favorable outlook for the first half of 2026 [4]. - The report highlights the potential for price-to-earnings value (PEV) ratios to recover, with estimates for major life insurance companies indicating potential increases above 1x [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides PEV valuations for major life insurance companies, with China Life at 0.87x, New China Life at 0.86x, and Ping An at 0.77x [4]. - For property insurance, the report lists valuations with China Property at 1.15x and PICC at 1.26x [5].

二十届四中全会明确要求"加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型"、"积极稳妥推进和实现碳达峰"，为绿色金融发展指明了方向。 人保财险在绿色金融领域布局已久，已将绿色金融纳入公司中长期战略规划，制定绿色金融三年发展规划，形成适配碳达峰碳中和"1+N"政策体系的"双 碳"保险产品供给体系。 面对国家"双碳"目标带来的新挑战，福建三明一家冶炼企业因创新保险方案而吃下"定心丸"，在绿色转型道路上迈出更加坚定的步伐。 2026年1月，人保财险福建三明分公司签发全国首单钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业碳超排费用损失保险，为当地某重点企业提供100万元专项风险保障。这一创 新产品将帮助企业应对碳排放超标风险，为高耗能行业绿色转型提供可复制、可推广的解决方案。 三明市近年来积极探索生态优先、绿色发展新路径。同时，作为福建省重要工业基地，三明钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼等产业根基深厚。在国家"双碳"战略推进 进程中，这些高耗能行业面临更为严格的碳排放总量核定管控，企业绿色转型需求迫切。 此次人保财险推出的碳超排费用损失保险，创新性将"碳超排费用损失"纳入保障范畴，聚焦企业生产经营中因自然灾害或意外事故造成的节能减排设备损 坏导致的碳超排费用损失。这一产品有 ...

Investment Rating - The insurance industry is rated as "Recommended" for the next 3-6 months, with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% [21]. Core Insights - The insurance sector is expected to see steady premium growth in 2025, with significant contributions from bancassurance channels and the expansion of distribution networks [4][3]. - The report highlights that the average premium growth for listed insurance companies in 2025 is projected to be robust, driven by factors such as improved investment returns and favorable tax policies [2][4]. - The report notes that the health insurance sector has experienced an average compound annual growth rate of over 20% in the past decade, indicating strong market potential [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance index decreased by 4.04% this week, underperforming the broader market by 3.42 percentage points [1]. - Individual stock performances varied, with notable declines in companies like China Life (-3.77%) and Ping An (-3.66%), while China Taiping showed a significant increase of 8.78% [1]. Company-Specific Insights - China Taiping is expected to see a substantial increase in its annual profit, projected to grow by approximately 215% to 843.2 million HKD in 2025, driven by enhanced net investment income and favorable tax policies [2]. - New China Life's premiums are expected to reach 195.9 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [3]. - China Pacific Insurance's total premiums are projected to be 461.7 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 4.4%, supported by an 8.1% increase in life insurance premiums [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the insurance sector has undergone two weeks of adjustments, primarily due to a slowdown in the "New Year" growth and high valuations [4]. - For the medium term, the first half of 2026 is expected to have relatively low base pressure, with an active equity market and a thriving liability side likely to drive performance beyond expectations [4]. - The report indicates that the current stabilization trend in long-term interest rates significantly alleviates pressure on interest spreads, suggesting potential for price-to-earnings value (PEV) ratios to recover towards 1x [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides PEV valuations for various companies, indicating that China Life is at 0.87x, New China Life at 0.86x, and Ping An at 0.77x [4]. - For property and casualty insurance, the report lists China Re at 0.60x and China Pacific at 1.09x, with a recommendation order favoring China Taiping and China Ping An [5].

2025年召开的中央经济工作会议、中央农村工作会议对做好"三农"工作作出了系统部署。近年来，我国 农业保险保费规模稳步提高，保障水平持续提升，有效服务乡村全面振兴。来自国家金融监督管理总局 的数据显示，"十四五"时期，保险业累计赔付9万亿元，较"十三五"时期增长61.7%，农业保险为8亿户 次农户提供风险保障。 2025年12月份，平安产险承保的咖啡种植完全成本保险在云南省普洱市孟连傣族拉祜族佤族自治县落 地。该保险首单承保咖啡种植面积3000亩，提供风险保障900万元，项目计划总承保面积3万亩。此举标 志着当地在已有咖啡种植物化成本保险、价格指数保险、气象指数保险的基础上，进一步构建起多层 次、广覆盖、可持续的咖啡产业保险保障体系。平安产险普洱中心支公司总经理和义昌介绍，此次保险 试点还构建"农业保险+信贷"协同模式。平安产险普洱中心支公司投入乡村振兴资金120万元，与孟连农 商行深化合作，专项用于投保咖农的贷款贴息及水肥一体化系统建设。通过保险增信、信贷贴息双向发 我国地域辽阔，农业生产受天气变化和地理位置影响呈现出巨大差异。随着农业保险从"保成本"向"保 收入"加速转型，解决与农业生产密切相关的大灾风险 ...