Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price raised to HKD 1.90, reflecting a potential upside of 15% from the current price of HKD 1.65 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to recover profitability as production utilization rates rebound, with Q3 2024 performance indicating a stabilization after significant losses in previous quarters [2]. - The production and sales of granular silicon have shown stability, with production and shipment volumes increasing by 17% and 20% year-on-year, respectively, in Q3 2024 [2]. - Cash costs have decreased, aligning with expectations, and further cost reduction is anticipated as production processes improve [2]. - Supply-side reforms in the silicon material sector are expected to support inventory reduction and price recovery, benefiting leading companies in the industry [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to decline from RMB 35,930 million in 2022 to RMB 16,668 million in 2024, before recovering to RMB 31,582 million by 2026, reflecting a significant year-on-year change of -51% in 2024 and a recovery of 32% in 2026 [1]. - Shareholder net profit is forecasted to drop sharply to RMB -3,200 million in 2024, with a recovery to RMB 3,032 million by 2026, indicating a year-on-year change of -228% in 2024 and a positive change of 203% in 2026 [1]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to turn negative at RMB -0.12 in 2024, with a gradual recovery to RMB 0.11 by 2026 [1]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 39.4 in 2025 and 13.0 in 2026, indicating a significant variation in valuation as profitability improves [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock price is expected to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% [4][13]. Core Insights - The company reported an unaudited loss attributable to owners of approximately 1.492 billion yuan for Q3 2024, with a total loss of about 2.971 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. - Cash costs continue to decline, with Q3 2024 cash costs down 12.32% from Q1 2024 and 5.71% from Q2 2024, driven by increased production capacity utilization [2]. - The company achieved a 33% reduction in carbon footprint at its Leshan base, setting a new global industry record, with carbon emissions of only 24.913 kg CO2 equivalent per kg of granular silicon [3]. - The company plans to launch its SiRo carbon chain components, which will utilize its granular silicon as raw material, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [3]. Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 17.057 billion yuan, 30.523 billion yuan, and 42.118 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -49%, +79%, and +38% [4]. - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years is -2.921 billion yuan, 1.544 billion yuan, and 4.326 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -216%, +153%, and +180% [4]. - The stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 30 for 2025 and 11 for 2026, indicating potential for recovery in profitability as silicon prices stabilize [4].

Group 1 - The report indicates that due to the significant drop in prices from polysilicon to photovoltaic modules, solar manufacturers will face cash consumption in 2024, potentially leading to market consolidation, which will heavily impact low-end companies [1] - The market is anticipating the introduction of the "Photovoltaic Manufacturing Standardization Management Measures 2024," which may implement stricter production standards across different segments of solar manufacturing, including limitations on unit power and silicon consumption for polysilicon manufacturers, potentially benefiting low-cost producers like GCL-Poly Energy [1] - According to Jianyin International, GCL-Poly's low-cost and low-carbon FBR granular silicon technology provides it with a competitive advantage during industry downturns [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price of HKD 1.77, indicating a potential upside of 3.5% from the current price of HKD 1.71 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company has experienced a slight narrowing of losses in Q3 2024, with a net loss of RMB 1.492 billion, down from RMB 2.971 billion in the first three quarters, primarily due to reduced inventory impairment [1]. - The report highlights that supply-side reforms are expected to accelerate the clearing of polysilicon supply, which could enhance the company's market position due to its low electricity consumption advantage [2]. - The company is projected to become the first in the industry to achieve cash profitability in polysilicon production by Q1 2025, as cash costs are expected to drop below RMB 30,000 per ton [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to decline significantly in 2024 to RMB 16.169 billion, a 52% decrease year-on-year, before recovering in subsequent years [4]. - The average selling price of granular silicon is expected to rise to RMB 55,000 per ton by 2026, with a gradual increase in market share from 14% in 2024 to 22% by 2026 [3][6]. - The company’s production capacity is anticipated to reach 280,000 tons in 2024, with a projected increase to 456,600 tons by 2026 [6]. Valuation Adjustments - The valuation benchmark for the polysilicon segment has been raised from RMB 7 billion to RMB 10 billion per ton of capacity, reflecting increased visibility of profit recovery in 2025-2026 [3][7]. - The target price adjustment from HKD 1.31 to HKD 1.77 is based on the anticipated recovery in profitability and market conditions [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.971 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, with granular silicon production and shipment volumes of 198,300 tons and 207,300 tons, respectively [2][3]. - Despite a decrease in the selling price of granular silicon, the company has successfully reduced production cash costs through continuous technological improvements, achieving a cash cost of 33.18 yuan/kg in Q3 2024, down 5.71% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company has achieved a global record in carbon footprint management, with its granular silicon production emitting only 24.913 kg of CO2 equivalent per kg of product, benefiting from 100% clean energy usage [4]. - The company is expanding its overseas granular silicon production capacity and exploring new profit growth opportunities in silane gas, with a partnership established for developing a polysilicon production facility in the UAE [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a net profit of -2.971 billion yuan, with a granular silicon production volume of 198,300 tons and a shipment volume of 207,300 tons [2][3]. - In Q3 2024, the granular silicon production and shipment volumes were 62,000 tons and 80,900 tons, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 15.67% and 19.67% [3]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 35.93 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of -2.158 billion yuan for 2024, followed by 1.441 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.689 billion yuan in 2026 [6][9]. Production and Cost Management - The company has focused on optimizing production processes, leading to a steady decline in cash production costs, which are expected to reach below 30 yuan/kg in the near future [3]. - The average selling price of granular silicon in Q3 2024 was 32.75 yuan/kg, reflecting a 7.80% decrease quarter-on-quarter [3]. Environmental and Technological Advancements - The company has received carbon footprint certification from ADEME, highlighting its commitment to sustainability and low carbon emissions in its production processes [4]. - The company is a leader in the research and production of high-purity silane gas, with its production capacity ranking first globally and meeting electronic-grade requirements [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (03800.HK) for the first time [1][88]. Core Viewpoints - GCL-Poly is a well-established photovoltaic giant that has innovated through cycles, achieving significant market share and technological advancements in the solar industry [2][24]. - The demand for photovoltaic products continues to grow, although profitability is under pressure due to industry price declines and excess supply [2][60]. - The company is building a green technology matrix to differentiate itself in a competitive market, focusing on cost-effective and high-quality production methods [3][67]. Summary by Sections 1. Established Photovoltaic Giant, Technological Innovation Across Cycles - GCL-Poly was listed in November 2007 and quickly captured a significant market share, becoming a leader in the global photovoltaic market [2][24]. - The company has shifted its strategic focus to granular silicon technology, which has led to a substantial increase in production capacity and market share [2][24]. - R&D investment has been increasing, reaching 5.6% of total revenue in 2023, indicating a commitment to innovation [2][41]. 2. Continuous Growth in Photovoltaic Demand, Profitability Under Pressure - In 2023, the domestic installed capacity surged, with an additional 216.3 GW installed, exceeding expectations [2][60]. - The industry is entering a phase of slower growth, with projected installations of 490 GW in 2024 [2][60]. - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 34.129 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 84% to 2.51 billion yuan [1][33]. 3. Building a Green Hard Technology Matrix, Differentiated Competition - GCL-Poly has made significant advancements in granular silicon production, achieving lower costs and higher quality [3][67]. - The company’s granular silicon production capacity is expected to reach 480,000 tons by the end of 2024, with a production volume of nearly 300,000 tons [3][67]. - The company is also advancing in perovskite technology, with significant efficiency improvements and plans for large-scale production [3][85]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The report forecasts total revenue for 2024-2026 to be 17.99 billion, 25.01 billion, and 32.1 billion yuan respectively, driven primarily by volume growth [1][88]. - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is -2.9 billion, 0.4 billion, and 2.5 billion yuan, reflecting a significant recovery in profitability by 2026 [1][88]. - The report highlights the potential for substantial valuation flexibility due to the company's cost advantages in granular silicon products [3][88].

电力设备及新能源行业 证券研究报告 |公司深度研究报告 2024/10/07 碳中和系列（一）之协鑫科技（公司）深度报告—— 聚焦颗粒硅，协"新"科技引领新周期 | --- | --- | |------------------------|----------------| | | | | 首席分析师： | | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190522080001 | | 证券分析师： | 梁必果 | | 分析师登记编号： | S1190524010001 | | 研究助理： | 钟欣材 | | 一般证券业务登记编号： | S1190122090007 | 刘强 P2 报告摘要 1、颗粒硅成本、产品优势明显，有望率先实现盈利与市占率共振提升 颗粒硅成本优势明显，产品参数持续提升。颗粒硅转换效率高与自动化程度高，工艺端带来天然成本优势，硅烷流化床法电耗显 著低于改良西门子法。截止2024年年中，公司技术优化工程进入收尾阶段，预计完成收尾后，公司现金成本（含研发费用）预期 将降低到3万元/公吨以内。随着行业报价企稳回升，公司有望率先回到量与盈利高速增长的轨迹。 2、推动光伏制造全方位降碳，引领"低碳"新周期 ...

Summary of Conference Call Company Overview - The conference call features Tiexin Technology, with a focus on its business operations and market conditions. The discussion is led by Zhou Xuhui and includes insights from Song Hao, the company's representative. [1] Industry Insights - The call highlights a critical turning point in the market, particularly regarding silicon material prices, indicating a significant moment for potential investment opportunities. [1] Key Points - The importance of the current market window is emphasized, suggesting that it may present unique opportunities for stakeholders. [1] - The company is positioned to discuss its business operations in the context of these market changes, indicating a proactive approach to adapting to industry dynamics. [1] Additional Important Content - The call sets the stage for a deeper exploration of Tiexin Technology's strategies and responses to the evolving market landscape, which may include future projections and operational adjustments. [1]

財務摘要 2 主席報告和首席執行官業務回顧及展望 4 管理層討論及分析 8 未經審核簡明中期綜合財務報表之審閱報告 21 未經審核簡明綜合損益及其他全面綜合收益報表 23 未經審核簡明綜合財務狀況報表 25 未經審核簡明綜合權益變動表 28 未經審核簡明綜合現金流量表 31 未經審核簡明中期綜合財務報表附註 33 董事及主要行政人員於股份、 相關股份及債券中的權益及淡倉 83 股份計劃 85 主要股東的權益及淡倉 94 企業管治及其他資料 95 公司資料 97 目 錄 財務摘要 | | 截至 6 月 30 日止六個月 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024 年 | 2023 年 | 變動 | 變動百分比 | | | 人民幣千元 | 人民幣千元 | 人民幣千元 | | | | （未經審核） | （未經審核） | | | | 收入 | | | | | | 銷售硅片 | 2,342,084 | 7,201,320 | (4,859,236) | (67.5%) | | 銷售電力 | 95,334 | 109,593 | (14,259) | (13.0%) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company is focusing on granular silicon technology, with a structured capacity release and an overseas expansion strategy that leverages the carbon emission and ESG advantages of granular silicon. The low energy consumption and cost advantages of granular silicon help the company navigate through market cycles. Product quality is improving, and the price gap with rod-shaped silicon N-type products is narrowing. As an intermediate product in granular silicon production, the company benefits from a leading cost advantage in silane gas, driven by downstream demand recovery, leading to profit growth. The company also has advanced perovskite technology and is building GW-level production lines to expand long-term capacity. [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue decreased by 57.7% year-on-year to 8.86 billion yuan, primarily due to a significant drop in silicon material and wafer prices, partially offset by an increase in silicon material shipment volume. - Gross profit for 2024 was -550 million yuan, a decrease of 9.33 billion yuan year-on-year, with a gross margin decline of 48.1 percentage points to -6.2%, attributed to falling product prices. - The company recognized an inventory impairment of 820 million yuan due to the decline in silicon material and wafer prices. - Net profit for H1 2024 was -2.02 billion yuan, with the attributable net profit at -1.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 7 billion yuan year-on-year, in line with expectations. - The company has repurchased shares worth 58 million yuan, 182 million yuan, and 24 million yuan in 2022, 2023, and H1 2024 respectively, with plans for a total repurchase or dividend distribution of no less than 2.5 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026. [1] Granular Silicon Production - The company has gradually released granular silicon capacity, with production capacity reaching 420,000 tons by the end of H1 2024. - The company plans to add 60,000 tons of module capacity in Xuzhou and expand capacity in the Middle East. - In H1 2024, granular silicon production increased by 66% year-on-year to 136,000 tons, with shipments (including internal sales) up 76% to 126,000 tons, and external sales up 85% to 121,000 tons. The average selling price of granular silicon was 40.3 yuan/kg. [1] Cost and Quality Advantages - Granular silicon has low energy consumption, providing cost and carbon footprint advantages. As domestic preferential electricity prices are gradually eliminated, the company's cost advantage over peers may widen. - Product quality is improving, with the total metal impurity ratio for granular silicon at ≤0.5 ppbw reaching 95.8% in July 2024, a significant increase from Q2 2023. - The company's products with a quality rating of 910A and above accounted for 96.6% of total products, an increase of 11.3 percentage points from February 2024. - The company has introduced a "turbidity" concept to represent the content of granular silicon powder, with 99.9% of products having turbidity <120 NTU in July 2024, a 79.3 percentage point increase from Q1 2023. [1] Silane Gas Business - The silane gas business is expected to benefit from demand in silicon-carbon anodes, photovoltaic cells, semiconductors, and display panels. As an intermediate product in granular silicon production, the company has a significant cost advantage in silane gas, which is expected to contribute to profit growth. [1] Perovskite Technology - The company is advancing its perovskite technology through its subsidiary, with the world's first 100MW perovskite pilot production capacity established. A groundbreaking ceremony for a GW-level large-scale perovskite production base was held in December 2023. The conversion efficiency of the company's 1×2m perovskite single-junction module is 19.04%, and the efficiency of the 369×555mm stacked module is 27.34%. [1]