Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating due to the company's continuous cost reduction and quality improvement in granular silicon, with expected recovery in profitability as polysilicon prices gradually recover [3] Core Views - The company reported revenue of 8 863 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 57 7%, and a net loss attributable to the parent company of 1 480 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 126 8% [2] - Polysilicon shipments reached approximately 126 400 tons in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24 99%, with an average external selling price of 40 3 yuan/kg [2] - Granular silicon shipments to the top three customers accounted for 62 2% of total shipments, with the company's 420 000-ton polysilicon nominal capacity fully operational [2] - Granular silicon quality improved significantly, with N-type silicon accounting for over 96% of production, and total metal impurities in 5 elements reduced to below 1ppbw [2] - R&D expenditure increased to 718 million yuan in H1 2024, with an R&D expense ratio exceeding 8%, up 3 8 percentage points year-on-year [2] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 17 160 billion yuan, 30 523 billion yuan, and 42 118 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -49%, +78%, and +38% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be -1 915 billion yuan, 1 567 billion yuan, and 4 354 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -176%, +182%, and +178% [3] - The stock's PE ratio for 2025 and 2026 is estimated at 20x and 7x, respectively [3] Operational Highlights - Granular silicon cash cost is expected to drop below 30 yuan/kg, with significant improvements in product quality and impurity levels [2] - The company obtained 65 patents in H1 2024, including 16 invention authorizations, focusing on granular silicon, industrial silicon, silane gas, perovskite, and CCZ technologies [2] - The company aims to achieve full-scale production of GW-level granular silicon lines by the end of 2024 [2] Market and Valuation - The stock's closing price was 1 17 yuan, with a 12-month price range of 0 89-1 64 yuan and a market capitalization of 28 688 billion yuan [6] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio for 2024-2026 is projected at 8 31x, 3 61x, and 2 17x, respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (协鑫科技) is not explicitly stated in the report, but it suggests a "sustainable focus" and "buy on dips" strategy due to its competitive advantages in the industry [4]. Core Views - GCL-Poly is currently experiencing losses due to the significant decline in polysilicon prices, which has impacted its revenue and profitability. The company is focusing on improving product quality and reducing costs to navigate through the industry's downturn [1][2]. - The company has achieved a high quality of its core product, granular silicon, with 96.6% of its products meeting the 901A standard or above, which is essential for downstream customers [2][3]. - GCL-Poly's cash cost for granular silicon is expected to drop below 30 RMB/kg, making it the lowest in the industry, enhancing its competitiveness during the industry's bottom cycle [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, GCL-Poly reported a revenue decline of 57.7% year-on-year to 8.86 billion RMB, with a gross loss of 553 million RMB, resulting in a gross margin of -6.6% [2]. - The average selling price of polysilicon dropped by 67.5% year-on-year to 40.3 RMB/kg, compared to 124.1 RMB/kg in the same period last year [2]. Product Quality and Market Position - The company has significantly improved the quality of its granular silicon products, with a notable reduction in total metal impurity content and turbidity levels, meeting stringent market standards [2][3]. - GCL-Poly's production capacity for granular silicon has reached 420,000 tons per year, with a 65.6% year-on-year increase in granular silicon output [2]. Cost Structure and Future Outlook - The company has the lowest production costs in the industry for granular silicon, with further reductions anticipated following ongoing technical upgrades [3]. - GCL-Poly is expected to incur a net loss of up to 2 billion RMB for the full year of 2024, but is projected to return to profitability in 2025 with an estimated net profit of 2.4 billion RMB [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company has experienced a significant decline in revenue and profitability due to a sharp drop in industry chain prices, with a 57.9% year-on-year decrease in photovoltaic materials revenue in 2024H1 [1][2]. - The company is expected to reduce its cash cost of granular silicon to below RMB 30/kg, which will enhance its competitive advantage [1]. - The company has established long-term supply agreements with leading silicon wafer manufacturers, indicating strong demand for its granular silicon products [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024H1, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 8.863 billion, a decrease of 57.69% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -RMB 1.48 billion, a decline of 126.81% [2]. - The company's polysilicon production reached 136,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, while granular silicon production increased by 65.6% [1]. Product Quality and Market Position - The quality of granular silicon has improved significantly, with 95% of products meeting the impurity content standard of ≤0.5 ppbw [1]. - The top three customers accounted for 62.2% of the company's granular silicon shipments, reflecting strong market recognition [1]. Future Growth Potential - The company is exploring overseas granular silicon production capacity, which could support its international transformation [2]. - The silane gas business is expected to become a new profit growth point, with the company holding a leading position in high-purity silane gas production [2].

协鑫科技（03800） 更新报告 颗粒硅成本及品质优势有望进一步体现 降价与减值导致业绩盈转亏：公司上半年收入同比减少 57.7%至 88.6 亿元人民币（下同），毛利为-5.5 亿，同比减少 106.3%，股东净 利润-14.8 亿元，同比减少 126.8%。业绩下滑主要因为期内硅料价格 同比大幅下降 68%以及存货减值 8.2 亿元的影响，其中 2Q 单季度亏损 约 15.1 亿元，低于我们先前预期。期末资产负债率 41.3%（扣除背书 及折现票据影响则为 37%），财务状态仍相对健康。 产品持续迭代优化：上半年公司颗粒硅销售 12.6 万吨，同比增加 25%，硅料收入 48.6 亿元，平均不含税均价 40.3 元每公斤。品质持续 提升，颗粒硅基本全面实现 5 元素总金属杂质含量低于 1ppbw 及小于 0.5ppbw 产品比例提升至 95%，已与市场 N 型致密复投料品质标准一 致，18 元素总金属杂质产品比例亦由 43%提升至 69.5%；浊度缺陷取得 实质优化，7 月 120NTU 和 100NTU 产品比例分别达到 99.9%及 90.4%， 整体断线率（32.2%）已接近同期棒状硅水平（31.4 ...

协鑫科技（3800.HK）2024 年半年报点评 颗粒硅优势显著，钙钛矿、硅烷气业务加速进击 2024 年 09 月 02 日 ➢ 事件：8 月 30 日，公司发布 2024 年半年报，根据公告，24H1 公司实现收 入 93.52 亿元，同比-56.04%，归母净利润-14.80 亿元，同比-126.81%，扣非 归母净利润为-14.51 亿元，同比-127.90%。我们认为公司业绩由盈转亏主要系 多晶硅产能阶段性过剩，竞争加剧导致价格跌至现金成本以下所致。 ➢ 硅料产销量稳步提升，成本控制能力强。公司 24H1 实现多晶硅产量 13.64 万吨，同比+22.80%，销售量 12.64 万吨（含内部销售 5722 吨），同比+24.99%， 其中前三大客户出货量分别为 4.98/1.68/1.20 万吨，客户 CR3 占比达到 62.2%。 总体来看，颗粒硅销量稳步提升，体现了下游客户对颗粒硅认可度的提升。此外， 公司不断进行成本优化，硅耗、能耗和生产效率显著提升，颗粒硅成本持续下降， 根据公司预测，预计颗粒硅现金成本将降到 30 元/kg 以下。 ➢ 金属杂质、浊度含量逐季降低，产品质量持续提升。2024 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 协鑫科技 (3800 HK) 业绩低于预期，产线优化完成后成本将大幅下降 业绩低于预期，产线优化完成后成本将大幅下降：公司上半年归母净亏损 14.8 亿元，略超业绩预告的 14.5 亿元，其中 2 季度 15.1 亿元，低于我们预 期。上半年颗粒硅产量/出货量 13.6/12.6 万吨（2 季度 7.1/6.1 万吨，环比 +8%/-6%），吨销售均价 4.03 万元（我们测算 2 季度 3.1-3.2 万元），生产 成本则由于开工率较低而偏高，同时硅片业务也由于售价大跌而毛利亏 损，导致光伏材料分部毛利率-6.6%，并计提 8.2 亿元存货减值。公司 5 月 启动对颗粒硅产线的系统优化工程，尽管导致开工率短期下降但生产指标 实现了大幅优化，随着优化完成，9 月将开始增产，年底前将满产，届时 吨现金成本将降至 3 万元以下，远低于棒状硅龙头的约 4 万元。颗粒硅质 量继续提升，N 型（901A 及以上）比例 7 月已超 96%，并受到客户高度认 可，目前库存低于两周，为行业最低。公司硅烷气产能位居全球第一，外 售量目前占全国 1/3，且拥有碾压性的成本优势，随着需求快速增长，将 成为新 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不會就因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因 倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 GCL Technology Holdings Limited 協鑫科技控股有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司） （股份代號：3800） 截至2024年6月30日止六個月 之中期業績公告 | 財務摘要 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 截至6月30日止期間 | | | | | 2024年 | 2023年 | 變動百分比 | | | 人民幣百萬元 | 人民幣百萬元 | | | | （未經審核） | （未經審核） | | | 收入 | 8,862.9 | 20,945.9 | (57.7)% | | 毛（虧）利 | (552.6) | 8,777.9 | (106.3)% | | 本公司擁有人應佔期內（虧損）利潤 | (1,479.6) | 5,518.3 | (126.8)% | | 每股基本（虧損）盈利 | 人民幣(5.60)分 | 人民幣20.79分 ...

颗粒硅优势明显,低碳引领新周期 2024 年 06 月 27 日 [Table_ 【投资要点 Summary]】 颗粒硅生产工艺简洁、转化率高、能耗低,具备陡峭的品控降本学习 曲线和较高的壁垒,下游产品适配需要研发驱动。在行业进入比拼资 金实力、成本竞争力和绿色属性的阶段,颗粒硅降本、提质和低碳优 势逐步扩大,协鑫科技有望在成本、品质和低碳减排方面引领行业。 颗粒硅降本:利用率提升,一体化和研发降本。1)生产成本:提高 单模块产能、连续运行时长、产能利用率,进而摊薄固定成本。单模 块产能提升至 6 万吨,单位投资成本再降 30%。G6 长周期、低成本新 一代循环流化床技术开发,连续运行时间中短期目标 5000h,长期目 标 8000h,产能利用率有望提升。2)现金成本:上游工业硅余热蒸汽 利用,吨现金成本有望由 2.8 万元降低至 2.4 万元。3)使用成本: 核心辅材研发与工艺优化,下游客户 CCZ 拉晶等方案匹配,非硅成本 可下降 19%。 颗粒硅提质:杂质降低,浊度改善,价差收窄。1)杂质含量:5 元素 总金属杂质含量≤1ppbw 稳定在 90%左右,少子寿命略高于致密块料, 头尾氧含量与致密料持平,满 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral from Buy [2] Core Views - The company is expected to face significant short-term profit pressure due to a sharp decline in polysilicon and silicon wafer prices, with an estimated loss of approximately 200 million RMB in Q2 [2] - The company's production capacity utilization for granular silicon has improved to 80-90%, with expectations to reach full production in Q3, which may reduce costs below 40,000 RMB per ton [2] - A long-term sales agreement with leading silicon wafer manufacturer Longi has been signed, indicating strong industry recognition of the company's granular silicon quality [2] - The report anticipates a recovery in polysilicon prices in Q3 after a significant decline, suggesting that the current severe losses in the industry may not be sustainable [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company show a decline from 35,930 million RMB in 2022 to an estimated 22,865 million RMB in 2024, with a subsequent recovery to 31,965 million RMB by 2026 [4][8] - Net profit is expected to drop sharply from 16,394 million RMB in 2022 to 236 million RMB in 2024, before recovering to 3,345 million RMB in 2026 [4][8] - The gross margin is projected to decrease significantly from 75.0% in 2022 to 14.7% in 2024, with a gradual improvement to 30.1% by 2026 [5][8] Valuation - The valuation for the polysilicon business is set at 355 billion RMB, while new businesses such as perovskite and silane gas are valued at 50 billion RMB, leading to a total valuation of 405 billion RMB [6] - The target price for the company's stock is adjusted to 1.62 HKD from the previous 1.67 HKD, reflecting the recent stock price increase and limited short-term valuation attractiveness [2][6]

协鑫科技(3800) 公司研究/公司点评 证 与阿联酋主权基金合作，颗粒硅出海在即 券 研 究 报 ◼ 核心观点 告 买入( 维持) 6月3日，公司发布公告，于2024年5月，公司全资附属公司协鑫苏州 与Mubadala（阿联酋主权基金）全资附属公司MDC POWER订立合作协 公 议，内容有关MDC POWER与协鑫苏州探讨合作以开发阿联酋首个多晶 行业： 电力设备 司 硅生产设施合作项目。根据合作协议，公司将会就合作项目持续与 日期： y 20x2z4q年da0te6m月a0r5k日 研 Mubadala展开讨论，并就合作项目签订具备法律效力的投资协议。 究 分析师： 开文明 阿联酋大力支持可再生能源发展。根据中国经济网数据，阿联酋政府7月 出台的《国家能源战略 2050 更新》，2030 年清洁能源在总能源结构中的 E-mail： kaiwenming@yongxin 份额将提高到30%，阿联酋政府在能源领域投资未来7年将增加1500亿 gsec.com 至2000亿迪拉姆（约合400亿至540亿美元），可再生能源装机容量增加 SAC编号： S1760523070002 两倍以上，达到 14.2 吉瓦。 ...