香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其 準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內容 而產生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 中煙國際（香港）有限公司 China Tobacco International (HK) Company Limited （ 於 香 港 註 冊 成 立 的 有 限 公 司 ） （股份代號：6055） 截至2024年12月31日止年度業績公告 中煙國際（香港）有限公司公佈本集團截至2024年12月31日止年度的經審核綜合財務業績， 連同截至2023年12月31日止年度之比較數字載列如下。 為更好地回饋股東、共享發展成果，經充分考慮本集團的良好盈利能力及充裕現金流， 董事會建議派發截至2024年12月31日止年度末期股息每股0.31港元，連同已派發的中期股 息每股0.15港元，全年股息合計每股0.46港元，同比增長43.8%。本集團將持續為股東創造 更大價值。 — 1 — 截至2024年12月31日止年度綜合損益及其他全面收益表 （以港元列示） | | | 2024年 | 2023年 | | --- | ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 中烟香港（06055） 港股公司覆盖 承载中烟全球化使命，前路星辰大海 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入 | 首次覆盖 | | --- | 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 概况：重组天利国际业务版图，打造境外战略桥头堡 中烟香港是中烟国际负责资本市场运作和国际业务拓展的指定境外平 台。公司成立于 2004 年，于 2018 年进行重组，于 2019 年于港交所 上市，是中国烟草总公司旗下第一个登陆资本市场的子公司。公司核 心业务包括烟叶类产品进口业务、烟叶类产品出口业务、卷烟出口业 务、新型烟草制品出口业务和巴西经营业务。根据公司官网数据，目 前，中烟香港经营业务领域涵盖新型烟草、卷烟、烟叶及雪茄等品 类，市场区域覆盖东亚、东南亚、南北美、中东欧等 50 余个国家和地 区，经营新型烟草品牌超过 20 个，卷烟品牌超过 35 个，雪茄品规超 过 35 个。公司业绩持续稳定增长，2016-2023 年，公司营业收入由 63.10 亿港元增长至 118.36 亿港元，CAGR 为 9.40%；归母净利润由 3.35 亿港元增长至 5.99 亿港 ...

新型烟草业务：HNB 产品正处发展红利期，产品力提升+区域扩张 助力加速发展。该业务 23 年营收占比为 1.1%，19-23 年营收 CAGR 达 48%，24H1 营收同比+28%。根据欧睿统计，23 年 HNB 全球规模 达 341 亿美元，且预计 23-27 年 CAGR 仍将达 13.5%，行业正处发 展红利期。目前中烟 HNB 品牌的市场份额仍较低，后续依托产品 力提升（如自然烟气技术）及区域持续扩张，份额有望加速提升。 资本运作平台定位，外延并购值得期待。公司定位为中烟体系资 本运作平台，此前收购中烟巴西为后续并购扩张提供良好范本， 2023 年/2024H1 巴西业务营收增长 41%/43%。作为中烟体系的重要 对外扩张平台，助力中烟国际化发展，公司成长空间值得期待。 盈利预测、估值和评级 投资逻辑 公司由中烟总公司控股，定位于中烟体系资本市场运作及国际业 务拓展平台，全面助力中烟国际化发展。23 年营收/归母净利分别 达 118.4/6.0 亿港元，19-23 年 CAGR 分别为 7.2%/17.0%。24H1 公 司营收/归母净利分别+12.4%/+40.8%，ROE 多年维持在 20% ...

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·食物饮品(HS) 中烟香港（06055.HK） 中烟体系唯一烟草上市公司，资源整合市值 显化空间较大 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 8324 | 11836 | 13277 | 14328 | 15318 | | 同比(%) | 3.23 | 42.19 | 12.17 | 7.92 | 6.91 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 374.90 | 598.77 | 806.40 | 925.21 | 1,017.50 | | 同比(%) | (46.66)* | 59.71 | 34.68 | 14.73 | 9.97 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.54 | 0.87 | 1.17 | 1.34 | 1.47 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 40.87 | 25.59 | 19.00 | 16.56 | 15.06 | *注：剔除收购中烟巴西产生 ...

Industry and Company Overview * **Industry**: Tobacco and related products * **Company**: Central Hong Kong, a subsidiary of China Tobacco International * **Role**: Capital operation platform and international business expansion for China Tobacco Key Points Business Segments 1. **Tobacco Imports**: * High margin Brazilian tobacco imports contribute to increased gross margins. * Brazil's impact on gross margins due to cost and price increases. * Tobacco imports are planned and dependent on annual quotas. * Gross margins for tobacco imports increased by 6% due to cost plus pricing model. * [10][11][12][13] 2. **Tobacco Exports**: * Exports to Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. * Sales volume and margins increased due to higher prices and improved product mix. * Sales volume and margins are expected to grow in the next few years. * [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43] 3. **New Tobacco Products**: * Sales in four core regions: Russia, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. * Focus on deepening market penetration and improving profitability. * Gross margins increased from 2.3% to 4.4% in the first half of 2024. * [39][40][41][42][43] 4. **H&B Products**: * Strategic focus for China Tobacco. * Price optimization, cost reduction, and product innovation. * Expansion into new markets based on market maturity. * [41][42][43] Financial Performance 1. **2024 Mid-Year Results**: * Revenue, gross margins, and scale all recorded normal growth. * Profitability continued to strengthen. * [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43] 2. **Associated Party Transactions**: * Renewal of agreements with six overseas associated parties. * Approval of new three-year associated transaction amount limits. * [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43] Future Outlook 1. **Tobacco Imports**: * Gross margins expected to remain stable. * Focus on maintaining cost competitiveness and optimizing product mix. * [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43] 2. **Tobacco Exports**: * Continued growth in sales volume and margins. * Expansion into new markets and product categories. * [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43] 3. **New Tobacco Products**: * Deepening market penetration in core regions. * Continuous improvement in profitability. * [39][40][41][42][43] 4. **H&B Products**: * Strategic focus for China Tobacco. * Continuous innovation and expansion into new markets. * [41][42][43]

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for China Tobacco Hong Kong (6055 HK) [1][4] Core Views - China Tobacco Hong Kong is positioned as the key platform for China Tobacco's overseas expansion, with its importance significantly increasing in the context of domestic tobacco growth slowing down and the necessity of going global [1][14] - The company is transitioning from a tobacco trader to a tobacco producer, with potential for asset injections from its parent company, China Tobacco, which could drive future growth [1][4] - The global tobacco market is undergoing a transformation towards new tobacco products (e g, heated tobacco), and China Tobacco Hong Kong could leverage this trend through acquisitions and market entry strategies [1][36] Industry Analysis - China's tobacco tax revenue accounted for approximately 7% of fiscal revenue in 2023, leading to a conservative policy stance on new tobacco products domestically [1][5] - In contrast, developed markets like the US and EU have seen a decline in tobacco tax revenue as a percentage of fiscal revenue (0 5%-1%), with ESG considerations becoming a priority, leading to more favorable policies for new tobacco products [1][5] - China's strong government execution and centralized regulatory framework have resulted in stricter controls on new tobacco products compared to overseas markets [1][11] Company Analysis - China Tobacco Hong Kong's revenue and profit in 2023 were RMB 11 8 billion and RMB 600 million, respectively, with a market cap of RMB 12 1 billion as of October 16, 2024, significantly lower than global tobacco giants [1][14] - The company's current profits are largely derived from business transfers from China Tobacco, including tobacco leaf import/export and duty-free cigarette exports [1][14] - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by its tobacco leaf import, cigarette export, and new tobacco export businesses, with projected revenue of HKD 13 58 billion, HKD 15 24 billion, and HKD 17 01 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [44][46] Valuation and Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of HKD 850 million, HKD 990 million, and HKD 1 152 billion for 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14x, 12x, and 11x, indicating significant valuation upside compared to global peers [1][4] - The company's valuation is attractive compared to global tobacco giants like Philip Morris International and Japan Tobacco, which trade at average P/E multiples of 18x, 18x, and 17x for 2024-2026 [47][48] Strategic Opportunities - China Tobacco Hong Kong could benefit from global geopolitical shifts and the "Belt and Road" initiative, providing opportunities for market entry and expansion in emerging markets [36][37] - The company is expected to accelerate its overseas expansion through acquisitions of production capacity, distribution channels, and brands, particularly in the taxed cigarette market [1][4]

Financial Performance - Revenue for the reporting period (ending June 30, 2024) reached [specific amount] with a growth rate of [specific percentage][5] - Revenue for the first half of 2024 increased by 12% to HKD 8,704,047 thousand compared to HKD 7,743,999 thousand in the same period last year[9] - Gross profit rose by 29% to HKD 964,215 thousand, driven by higher sales prices and a favorable product mix[9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 41% to HKD 643,341 thousand, with basic earnings per share increasing to HKD 0.93[9] - The company's financial summary highlights a [specific percentage] increase in net profit compared to the previous reporting period[2] - The company's cash flow statement indicates a [specific amount] in operating cash flow for the reporting period[2] - The company's equity structure shows a [specific percentage] increase in shareholder equity[2] - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, increased to HKD 8,704,047 thousand, up 12.4% from HKD 7,743,999 thousand in the same period in 2023[108] - Gross profit rose to HKD 964,215 thousand in H1 2024, a 29.4% increase compared to HKD 745,345 thousand in H1 2023[108] - Net profit attributable to equity holders of the company grew to HKD 643,341 thousand in H1 2024, up 40.8% from HKD 456,952 thousand in H1 2023[108] - Basic and diluted earnings per share increased to HKD 0.93 in H1 2024, compared to HKD 0.66 in H1 2023[108] - Total assets increased to HKD 9,211,367 thousand as of June 30, 2024, up 48.2% from HKD 6,213,612 thousand as of December 31, 2023[109] - Cash and cash equivalents grew to HKD 711,567 thousand as of June 30, 2024, a 24.7% increase from HKD 570,808 thousand as of December 31, 2023[109] - Total equity attributable to equity holders of the company increased to HKD 2,905,502 thousand as of June 30, 2024, up 16.5% from HKD 2,493,671 thousand as of December 31, 2023[110] - Retained earnings rose to HKD 1,998,563 thousand as of June 30, 2024, a 26.8% increase from HKD 1,576,560 thousand as of December 31, 2023[112] - Operating cash flow from operations decreased to 470,339 thousand HKD in 2024 from 494,428 thousand HKD in 2023[113] - Net cash from operating activities increased to 414,603 thousand HKD in 2024 from 385,993 thousand HKD in 2023[113] - Net cash used in investing activities significantly increased to 335,650 thousand HKD in 2024 from 674 thousand HKD in 2023[113] - Net cash from financing activities improved to 44,035 thousand HKD in 2024 from a net cash outflow of 6,232 thousand HKD in 2023[113] - Total customer contract revenue increased to 8,704,047 thousand HKD in 2024 from 7,743,999 thousand HKD in 2023[118] - Tobacco leaf sales revenue grew to 8,112,880 thousand HKD in 2024 from 7,469,818 thousand HKD in 2023[118] - Cigarette sales revenue more than doubled to 547,323 thousand HKD in 2024 from 240,131 thousand HKD in 2023[118] - New tobacco product sales revenue increased to 43,517 thousand HKD in 2024 from 33,895 thousand HKD in 2023[118] - Revenue from Mainland China grew to 7,256,648 thousand HKD in 2024 from 6,607,111 thousand HKD in 2023[119] - Revenue from Brazil surged to 200,339 thousand HKD in 2024 from 69,259 thousand HKD in 2023[119] - Tobacco leaf product import business revenue reached 6,802,187 thousand HKD, accounting for the largest share of total revenue at 78.1%[122] - Total revenue for the first half of 2024 was 8,704,047 thousand HKD, a 12.4% increase compared to 7,743,999 thousand HKD in the same period of 2023[122][123] - Gross profit margin for the tobacco leaf product import business was 10.9%, the highest among all business segments[122] - Cigarette export business revenue grew significantly by 127.9% year-over-year, from 240,131 thousand HKD to 547,323 thousand HKD[122][123] - Brazil operations revenue increased by 42.8% year-over-year, from 275,459 thousand HKD to 393,239 thousand HKD[122][123] - Total assets increased by 43.4% from 6,740,395 thousand HKD in 2023 to 9,665,203 thousand HKD in 2024[122][123] - Net profit for the first half of 2024 was 679,702 thousand HKD, a 33.1% increase compared to 510,540 thousand HKD in the same period of 2023[122][123] - Interest income more than doubled from 35,255 thousand HKD in 2023 to 66,549 thousand HKD in 2024[124] - Financing costs increased by 59.6% year-over-year, from 72,365 thousand HKD to 115,463 thousand HKD[126] - Inventory costs rose by 10.8% from 6,965,995 thousand HKD in 2023 to 7,715,854 thousand HKD in 2024[127] - Hong Kong profits tax provision for the six months ended June 30, 2024 was HK$82.669 million, calculated at 16.5% of estimated assessable profits, same as the previous year[128] - Overseas subsidiaries' taxes include corporate income tax and social contribution tax in Brazil, with applicable rates of 25% and 9% for the six months ended June 30, 2024 and 2023 respectively[128] - Interim dividend of HK$0.15 per share declared for the six months ended June 30, 2024, totaling HK$103.752 million, compared to none in the same period last year[129] - Basic earnings per share for the six months ended June 30, 2024 was HK$0.93, based on profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of HK$643.341 million and 691.68 million weighted average ordinary shares[130] - Trade and other receivables increased to HK$2.575 billion as of June 30, 2024 from HK$966.599 million as of December 31, 2023, with 90+ days overdue receivables significantly rising to HK$1.91 billion[132][135] - Cash and cash equivalents plus short-term bank deposits increased to HK$2.809 billion as of June 30, 2024 from HK$2.332 billion as of December 31, 2023[137] - Trade and other payables increased to HK$3.469 billion as of June 30, 2024 from HK$1.438 billion as of December 31, 2023, with 31-90 days payables rising to HK$2.291 billion[138][140] - Bank borrowings increased to HK$2.862 billion as of June 30, 2024 from HK$2.48 billion as of December 31, 2023, with a weighted average annual interest rate of 7.75%[141] - Revenue for the six months ended June 30, 2024, reached 8,704,047 thousand HKD, a 12.4% increase compared to 7,743,999 thousand HKD in the same period in 2023[149] - Gross profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was 964,215 thousand HKD, up 29.4% from 745,345 thousand HKD in the same period in 2023[149] - Operating profit for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was 957,779 thousand HKD, a 37.2% increase compared to 698,038 thousand HKD in the same period in 2023[149] - Profit attributable to equity holders of the company for the six months ended June 30, 2024, was 643,341 thousand HKD, up 40.8% from 456,952 thousand HKD in the same period in 2023[149] - Sales of tobacco products to a fellow subsidiary amounted to 6,802,187 thousand HKD for the six months ended June 30, 2024, compared to 6,448,079 thousand HKD in the same period in 2023[144] - Purchases of tobacco products from a fellow subsidiary totaled 1,218,803 thousand HKD for the six months ended June 30, 2024, a 54.7% increase from 787,848 thousand HKD in the same period in 2023[144] - Sales of new tobacco products to an associate of CNTC Group reached 4,835 thousand HKD for the six months ended June 30, 2024, up 64.1% from 2,946 thousand HKD in the same period in 2023[144] - Trade receivables from fellow subsidiaries stood at 1,943,078 thousand HKD as of June 30, 2024, compared to 201,057 thousand HKD as of December 31, 2023[146] - Trade payables to fellow subsidiaries amounted to 479,219 thousand HKD as of June 30, 2024, up significantly from 47,546 thousand HKD as of December 31, 2023[146] - Total remuneration for key management personnel (directors) was 5,569 thousand HKD for the six months ended June 30, 2024, slightly higher than 5,503 thousand HKD in the same period in 2023[147] Market Expansion and Acquisitions - The company completed the acquisition of China Tabaco Internacional do Brasil Ltda. (中煙巴西) in September 2021, which is expected to enhance its market presence in Brazil[3] - The company expanded its exclusive operating regions to include Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong, Macau, and duty-free shops in mainland China[4] - The company's market expansion strategy includes potential mergers and acquisitions to strengthen its global footprint[5] - The company expanded its operations in Brazil, enhancing raw tobacco resource allocation and achieving its first supply to a multinational tobacco company[10] - The company completed the acquisition of CBT on November 26, 2021, making it a non-wholly owned subsidiary and no longer a related party[46] - The company completed the acquisition of China Tobacco Brazil on November 26, 2021, making it a wholly-owned subsidiary, with CBT becoming an indirect non-wholly-owned subsidiary[24] Strategic Agreements and Contracts - The company signed the 2021-2024 Overseas Tobacco Supply Framework Agreement, securing long-term supply contracts for tobacco products[3] - The 2021-2024 Tobacco Product Export Agency Agreement was established to strengthen the company's export agency business[3] - The company entered into an exclusive operation and long-term supply framework agreement with China Tobacco International for the import of tobacco products, with no fixed term unless terminated by the company[26] - The pricing policy for tobacco product imports is based on a 6% markup on the purchase price from suppliers, with a 3% markup for specific cigarette brand production[27] - Sales transactions under the tobacco product import framework agreement amounted to HKD 6,802.2 million, accounting for 100% of the total revenue from tobacco product import business[28] - The company entered into exclusive operation and long-term supply framework agreements with various entities under China Tobacco Corporation for the export of tobacco products, with no fixed term unless terminated by the company[29] - The company's export pricing formula for tobacco leaf products is P = A × (1 - applicable markup percentage), where P is the purchase price from domestic suppliers and A is the sales price to independent third parties[31] - Starting from January 1, 2024, the applicable markup percentages for exported tobacco leaf products are no less than 1%, 2%, and 4%, depending on product variety, annual production, sales price, customer, and supplier[32] - In the reporting period, the procurement transaction amount for tobacco leaf product export business was HKD 881.9 million, accounting for 99.1% of the total procurement amount for this business[33] - The company has entered into exclusive operation and long-term supply framework agreements with entities under China National Tobacco Corporation for duty-free cigarette export business[34] - The pricing policy for high-end and other first-class duty-free cigarettes is determined based on Document No. 250 issued by the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration, with export prices for high-end cigarettes not less than 35% of domestic ex-tax transfer prices and other first-class duty-free cigarettes not less than 45%[38] - The company applies incremental markup percentages of 1% to 2%, 2% to 5%, or above 5% for incremental business in cigarette exports, considering reasonable profit margins, market demand, and services provided by downstream wholesalers[38] - The company's cigarette export business constituted related-party transactions with a procurement amount of HKD 374.9 million, accounting for approximately 99.2% of the total procurement volume for the cigarette export business[40] - The company's new tobacco product export business had related-party procurement transactions amounting to HKD 41.4 million, representing 100% of the total procurement volume for the new tobacco product export business[44] - The company has established exclusive and long-term supply framework agreements with entities under China Tobacco Corporation for the new tobacco product export business, with no fixed expiration date unless terminated by the company[41] - The pricing formula for new tobacco product procurement is P = A × (1 - applicable markup ratio), where P is the procurement price and A is the sales price to independent third parties[43] - The markup ratio for new tobacco product export business is at least 1%, subject to adjustments based on international market conditions and operational costs[43] - The company has been granted exemptions by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange from strict compliance with annual caps and independent shareholder approval requirements for certain related-party transactions[41][44] - The company's cigarette export business applies markup ratios ranging from 1% to 2%, 2% to 5%, or above 5% for incremental business customers[39] - The company has signed 2021-2024 overseas supply framework agreements for tobacco leaf product imports, with a three-year term extendable by mutual agreement[45] - The company's procurement transactions for tobacco leaf products in the import business amounted to HKD 329.2 million, accounting for 5.0% of the total procurement in this segment[50] - The company's sales agency business for tobacco leaf products generated HKD 0.2 million in commissions, representing approximately 0.024% of the total revenue from the export business[55] - The company's pricing policy for tobacco leaf product sales includes a minimum commission rate of 0.25% for products priced at USD 20,000 or more per ton, and 0.5% for products priced below USD 20,000 per ton[53] - The expected transaction amounts under the 2021-2024 overseas supply framework agreements are HKD 444.6 million for 2022, HKD 466.9 million for 2023, and HKD 490.2 million for the period from January 1 to November 16, 2024[49] - The expected commission amounts under the 2021-2024 tobacco leaf product export agency agreements are HKD 3.0 million for 2022, HKD 3.3 million for 2023, and HKD 3.6 million for the period from January 1 to November 16, 2024[54] - The company applies a fixed markup ratio of 6% when selling tobacco leaf products to China Tobacco International, based on the procurement price[47] - The company's procurement pricing policy considers factors such as raw material costs, product quality premiums or discounts, and supplier costs related to exchange rates[48] - The company's tobacco leaf product export agency agreements have a three-year term from November 17, 2021, to November 16, 2024, with the possibility of extension[51] - The company's related parties for tobacco leaf product export agency agreements include entities such as Cambodia Vinaton Group Co., Ltd. and Myanmar Bangkang Tobacco Factory[52] - The tobacco sales framework agreement with Alliance One International has been extended until December 31, 2024, with annual transaction caps of $114.4 million (HK$892.3 million) for 2023 and $85.0 million (HK$663.2 million) for 2024[61] - The total transaction amount under the tobacco sales framework agreement during the reporting period was HK$184.0 million[62] - The CBT tobacco sales framework agreement with Alliance One International was extended until December 31, 2024, following the initial term ending on December 31, 2022[62] - The pricing for tobacco sales under the framework agreements is determined based on factors such as quantity, quality, procurement costs, and market conditions[60] - The Alliance One related transactions are considered continuing connected transactions under the Listing Rules, with certain applicable percentage ratios exceeding 5%[57] - The board of directors approved the extension of the Alliance One related transaction agreements, including the annual caps, as fair and reasonable[57] - The initial term of the tobacco sales framework agreement began on November 26, 2021, and was set to end on December 31, 2022, before being extended[58] - The CBT tobacco sales framework agreement allows CBT to sell certain grades of tobacco products to Alliance One for distribution to end customers[62] - The Alliance One related transactions include both tobacco sales and procurement of agricultural materials, tobacco, and services[56] - The extension agreements for the Alliance One related transactions are exempt from certain Listing Rules requirements, including circular and shareholder approval[57] - The transaction amount under the CBT Tobacco Sales Framework Agreement for the year ending December 31, 2023 is expected not

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 20.2, representing a 24% upside from the current price [1][2] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 reached HKD 8.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, with net profit of HKD 680 million, up 33% year-on-year [1] - Expected net profits for 2024/2025/2026 are HKD 900 million, HKD 970 million, and HKD 1.09 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 1.12, HKD 1.20, and HKD 1.34 [1][2] - The tobacco leaf import business grew by 5.5% in revenue, driven by a 4.1% price increase, while the export business grew by 23%, with a 13.1% price increase [2] - Cigarette export revenue surged by 128%, with a 96% increase in volume, reaching 1.1 billion sticks, still below pre-pandemic levels of 5.5 billion sticks annually [2] - New tobacco products saw a 28.4% revenue increase, with a 41.3% volume growth despite a 9.1% price decline [2] - The Brazilian tobacco business contributed HKD 390 million in revenue, up 42.7%, driven by a 67% price increase despite a 14.5% volume decline [2] - The company declared its first interim dividend of HKD 0.15 per share, with an expected dividend yield of 2.6% for the year [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at HKD 13.1 billion, with a 10.7% growth rate, followed by 10.0% and 10.2% growth in 2025E and 2026E, respectively [3][8] - Gross margin improved to 10.9% in H1 2024, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, with further improvements expected to 11.1%, 11.2%, and 11.4% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E [2][3] - Net profit margin is forecasted to rise to 6.9% in 2024E, up from 5.8% in 2023A, and remain stable at 6.8% in 2025E and 2026E [3][8] - ROE is expected to peak at 29.7% in 2024E before moderating to 26.1% and 24.4% in 2025E and 2026E, respectively [3][16] Valuation Analysis - Comparable company analysis suggests a 16x PE multiple for 2025E, implying a target price of HKD 19.2 [9] - DCF valuation, assuming a WACC of 10% and a long-term growth rate of 2%, yields a fair value of HKD 21.3 [9] - The blended target price of HKD 20.2 is based on a combination of comparable company and DCF valuations [9] Industry and Business Outlook - The tobacco leaf import and export businesses are in an upward cycle, benefiting from rising prices and volume growth [2] - Post-pandemic recovery in passenger traffic has driven a rebound in cigarette exports, with significant growth potential as volumes remain below pre-pandemic levels [2] - Expansion in new tobacco products and potential M&A activities are identified as future growth drivers [2] - The company's strategic focus on higher-margin self-operated businesses and new product launches is expected to sustain profitability [2]

Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055) reported strong H1 2024 results with total revenue of HKD 8.7 billion, up 12.4% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 640 million, up 40.8% YoY [2] - The company announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.15 per share starting from 2024 [2] - Cigarette export revenue surged 127.9% YoY to HKD 550 million, driven by recovery in duty-free market traffic [3] - Tobacco leaf import revenue increased 5.5% YoY to HKD 6.8 billion, while tobacco leaf export revenue rose 23.0% YoY to HKD 920 million [3] - New tobacco product export revenue grew 28.4% YoY to HKD 44 million, and Brazil operations revenue increased 42.8% YoY to HKD 390 million [3] - Gross margin improved to 11.1%, up 1.5 percentage points YoY, with cigarette export gross margin rising significantly to 22.2%, up 6.5 percentage points YoY [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue breakdown: Tobacco leaf import (HKD 6.8 billion, +5.5% YoY), tobacco leaf export (HKD 920 million, +23.0% YoY), cigarette export (HKD 550 million, +127.9% YoY), new tobacco product export (HKD 44 million, +28.4% YoY), Brazil operations (HKD 390 million, +42.8% YoY) [3] - Gross margin improvement driven by higher-margin cigarette exports and optimized product mix [3] - Net profit margin increased to 7.4%, up 1.5 percentage points YoY [3] Market Data - Current price: HKD 16.72 [4] - 52-week price range: HKD 8.61-17.88 [4] - Market capitalization: HKD 11.56 billion [4] - Average daily turnover: HKD 53.35 million [4] Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecast for 2024E-2026E: HKD 13.4 billion (+13% YoY), HKD 14.7 billion (+10% YoY), HKD 15.9 billion (+8% YoY) [5] - Net profit forecast for 2024E-2026E: HKD 848 million (+42% YoY), HKD 969 million (+14% YoY), HKD 1.07 billion (+10% YoY) [5] - 2024E-2026E P/E ratios: 13.6x, 11.9x, 10.8x [5] - ROE expected to remain strong at around 30% from 2024E to 2026E [6] Key Drivers - Recovery in duty-free market traffic driving cigarette export growth [3] - Optimization of product mix and expansion of self-operated business scale improving margins [3] - Strong demand for tobacco leaf in international markets supporting export growth [3] - Focus on key brand cultivation and marketing efforts boosting new tobacco product sales [3]