交银国际研究 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 2 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 163.20 | 港元 184.00↑ | +12.7% | | | 网易云音乐 (9899 HK) | | | | | | 2024 下半年利润超预期；仍看好音乐付费长期增长潜力 | 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 7,867 | 7,950 | 8,008 | 8,700 | 9,382 | | 同比增长 (%) | -12.5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8.6 | 7.8 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 819 | 1,700 | 1,819 | 2,021 | 2,228 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 3.86 | 8.06 | 8.52 | 9.46 | 10.43 | ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" based on improved profitability and growth prospects [3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 7.95 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with significant improvement in profitability, achieving a gross profit of 2.682 billion RMB, up 27.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.7 billion RMB, up 107.7% year-on-year [1][3]. - The online music segment showed resilience with a revenue of 5.355 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.1%, driven by an increase in subscription revenue [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a total revenue of 7.95 billion RMB for 2024, with a slight increase of 1.1% compared to the previous year [1]. - Gross profit reached 2.682 billion RMB, with a gross margin improvement from 26.7% in 2023 to 33.7% in 2024 [1]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was 1.7 billion RMB, marking a substantial increase of 107.7% year-on-year [1][3]. User Engagement and Content Strategy - The company focuses on enhancing its differentiated content ecosystem, increasing the number of independent musicians on the platform to over 773,500, with approximately 4.4 million music tracks uploaded [2]. - The average listening time for long audio content per user increased by 35.8% year-on-year, indicating growing user engagement [2]. Cost Management - Sales expenses decreased by 19.3% to 612 million RMB due to more prudent promotional strategies, while R&D expenses fell by 10.2% to 780 million RMB, reflecting improved resource utilization [3]. Future Projections - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 is raised to 1.9 billion RMB, representing a 64% increase from previous estimates, with projections for 2026 and 2027 at 2.174 billion RMB and 2.446 billion RMB, respectively [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for NetEase Cloud Music, with a target price raised to HK$202.5 from the previous HK$115.0, indicating an upside potential of 18.6% from the current price of HK$170.70 [1][3][8]. Core Insights - NetEase Cloud Music reported a total revenue of RMB7.95 billion for FY24, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, which aligns with consensus estimates. Adjusted net profit surged by 108% year-over-year to RMB1.70 billion, exceeding consensus by 20%, primarily due to enhanced profitability in the online music segment and effective operational expense control [1][2]. - The company plans to focus on improving user experience to unlock long-term growth opportunities in FY25E, with expectations of a 15% year-over-year growth in online music services revenue driven by subscriber growth [1][5]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved significantly, rising by 3.6 percentage points year-over-year to 32.4% in the second half of FY24, with forecasts indicating further GPM expansion to 35.4% in FY25 [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Growth**: FY24 revenue was RMB7.95 billion, with projections of RMB8.08 billion for FY25E and RMB8.77 billion for FY26E, indicating a gradual recovery and growth trajectory [2][11]. - **Profitability Metrics**: Adjusted net profit is expected to grow from RMB1.70 billion in FY24 to RMB1.88 billion in FY25E, with adjusted net margins improving from 21.1% in 2H24 to 23.3% in FY25E [2][6][11]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The report values NetEase Cloud Music at a P/E of 21x for FY25E, which is at a discount compared to global peers, reflecting the competitive landscape in China's online content sector [8][9]. User Engagement and Market Strategy - The company has seen steady growth in monthly active users (MAUs) and user engagement, attributed to a distinctive content ecosystem and improved personalized recommendations [5]. - Key initiatives for FY25E include enriching the content library, fostering community development, enhancing user experience to drive payment willingness, and improving operational efficiency [5][6]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - NetEase Cloud Music's online music services revenue increased by 20% year-over-year in the second half of FY24, with membership subscriptions growing by 19% year-over-year [5][6]. - The company has adopted a more prudent operational approach, particularly in social entertainment, leading to a 33% year-over-year decline in related revenue as it focuses on its core music business [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase Cloud Music, with a target price set at HKD 202.5, based on a 21x P/E ratio for FY2025 [1][10]. Core Insights - NetEase Cloud Music reported a total revenue of RMB 7.95 billion for FY2024, reflecting a 1% year-over-year growth, in line with expectations. Adjusted net profit surged by 108% to RMB 1.7 billion, exceeding expectations by 20%, primarily due to improved profitability in the online music segment and effective cost control [1][2]. - The company aims to enhance user experience to unlock long-term growth opportunities, focusing on content library expansion, community development, user payment willingness, and operational efficiency [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2024, the overall gross margin increased by 3.6 percentage points to 32.4%, driven by improved revenue monetization and prudent cost management. The gross margin is projected to further increase to 35.4% in FY2025 [3][4]. - The online music service revenue for the second half of FY2024 grew by 20% year-over-year, reaching RMB 2.8 billion, with subscription revenue increasing by 19% to RMB 2.3 billion [2][4]. - The adjusted net profit margin for FY2024 was 21.1%, up by 8.8 percentage points year-over-year [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to reach RMB 8.08 billion in FY2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 1.6%, and projected to grow to RMB 9.28 billion by FY2027 [4][14]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB 1.88 billion in FY2025, reflecting a 10.7% year-over-year growth [4][14]. Valuation and Market Comparison - The target price of HKD 202.5 is based on a lower P/E ratio compared to global peers, reflecting the competitive landscape in China's online content sector [10][11]. - The report highlights that the stock has shown significant price performance, with a 51.5% increase over the past month and an 82.5% increase over the past six months [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 7.95 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, and a net profit of 1.565 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 113.2% [5] - The gross margin for 2024 reached 33.7%, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to cost optimization measures and a one-time adjustment in content licensing fees [5] - The company is expected to continue its profit growth trajectory, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 1.812 billion, 2.012 billion, and 2.220 billion yuan respectively [5] - The company is expanding its music library and community ecosystem, with over 770,000 independent musicians and approximately 4.4 million uploaded tracks by June 2024 [6] - The average listening time for long audio content per user increased by 35.8% year-on-year in 2024, indicating a growing user engagement with diverse audio content [6] - Membership subscription revenue reached 4.459 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22%, driven by enhanced product offerings and user experience [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.843 billion, 9.735 billion, and 10.609 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.2%, 10.1%, and 9.0% [5] - The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 8.4, 9.3, and 10.2 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.1, 14.5, and 13.2 times [5] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 36.3% in 2025 and further to 38.0% in 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 7.95 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, and a net profit of 1.565 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 113.2% [5] - The gross margin for 2024 reached 33.7%, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to cost optimization measures and a one-time adjustment in content licensing fees [5] - The company is expected to continue its profit growth trajectory, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 1.812 billion, 2.012 billion, and 2.220 billion yuan respectively [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue (million yuan): 2023A: 7,867, 2024A: 7,950, 2025E: 8,843, 2026E: 9,735, 2027E: 10,609 [7] - Net Profit (million yuan): 2023A: 734, 2024A: 1,562, 2025E: 1,812, 2026E: 2,012, 2027E: 2,220 [7] - Gross Margin (%): 2023A: 26.7, 2024A: 33.7, 2025E: 36.3, 2026E: 38.0, 2027E: 38.6 [7] - EPS (diluted, yuan): 2023A: 3.4, 2024A: 7.2, 2025E: 8.4, 2026E: 9.3, 2027E: 10.2 [7] - P/E (times): 2023A: 39.8, 2024A: 18.7, 2025E: 16.1, 2026E: 14.5, 2027E: 13.2 [7] Growth Drivers - The company is expanding its music library and community ecosystem, with over 770,000 independent musicians registered and approximately 4.4 million tracks uploaded by June 2024 [6] - The average listening time for long audio content per user increased by 35.8% year-on-year in 2024, indicating a growing user engagement with diverse audio content [6] - Membership subscription revenue reached 4.459 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22%, driven by enhanced product offerings and user experience [7]

Summary of Netease Cloud Music Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Netease Cloud Music - **Industry**: Online Music Streaming Key Points User Growth and Engagement - In 2024, Netease Cloud Music's monthly active users (MAU) showed steady growth, with core user engagement exceeding 30% [2][4] - The member user base demonstrated high stickiness and activity, with increased average listening duration [2][4] Revenue and Financial Performance - For 2024, Netease Cloud Music reported revenue of RMB 79.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [4][15] - Gross profit reached RMB 26.8 billion, up 27.5% year-on-year, while net profit surged to RMB 15.7 billion, reflecting a 113% increase [4][15] - Online music service revenue grew by 23.1%, with subscription revenue rising to RMB 44.6 billion [4][15] Content and Copyright Expansion - The company actively expanded copyright partnerships, signing agreements with JYP Entertainment and CJNM, and enhancing its Chinese music library [2][6] - By the end of 2024, approximately 773,500 independent musicians were registered on the platform, supported by initiatives like the Stone Plan and Cloud Ladder Plan [2][6] Original Music and Popular Releases - Netease Cloud Music successfully launched several popular original songs in 2024, including the "Roshengmen" series and "5.2 AM" [2][7] - The platform's focus on high-quality music content catered to the preferences of younger audiences [2][7] Audio Content and Product Innovation - The average listening duration for long audio users increased significantly by 35.8% year-on-year [2][10] - The app underwent continuous upgrades, enhancing personalized content recommendations and expanding music community features [11][12] Community Engagement and User Interaction - Netease Cloud Music improved community experiences by introducing features like vinyl record scenarios and music review interactions [12][13] - The company emphasized user-generated content (UGC) to foster community creativity and engagement [12][13] Strategic Focus for Future Growth - Looking ahead, Netease Cloud Music plans to prioritize user experience, particularly among younger demographics, and continue investing in original music production [9][18] - The company aims to enhance its content acquisition strategy through partnerships with both domestic and international copyright holders [19][20] Competitive Landscape and Market Position - Despite competition from free streaming services, Netease Cloud Music believes its quality content differentiates it significantly [21] - The company is focused on enhancing user experience to drive subscription growth and ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) [21] AI Technology Utilization - AI tools are being leveraged to improve music production efficiency and enhance personalized recommendations, significantly impacting content creation and user engagement [17][23] Capital Allocation and Future Investments - Future capital allocation will focus on product experience and content services to ensure the uniqueness and sustainability of proprietary content [24]

Summary of NetEase Cloud Music Annual Phone Conference Company Overview - **Company**: NetEase Cloud Music - **Industry**: Online Music Streaming Key Points and Arguments Industry Developments - The online music industry has seen continuous strengthening and effective improvements in 2024, focusing on enhancing the community ecosystem centered around music [1] - Active users have increased by over 30%, indicating strong community leadership and high user participation [2] User Engagement and Community - The platform has successfully attracted a rapidly growing member group characterized by high activity and listening time, becoming a central force in the community [2] - Unique music community and personalized content recommendations are highlighted as key differentiators [2] - The mobile end-to-end listening time has steadily increased compared to 2023, reflecting enhanced user engagement [2] Content and Copyright Strategy - The company has built a comprehensive music content ecosystem by improving copyright access and supporting independent musicians [2][4] - Strategic partnerships have been established with various artists and record companies to expand the music library, including significant collaborations with well-known musicians [5][17] - The platform has registered approximately 7.35 million independent musicians, marking a milestone in its musician support initiatives [5] Financial Performance - Gross profit reached 33.7% in 2024, up from 26.7% in 2023, driven by increased subscription members and cost optimization [3] - Net profit after adjustment tripled from RMB 8.19 billion in 2023 to RMB 1.7 billion in 2024 [3] - Subscription income surged by 113%, from RMB 7.3 billion in 2023 to RMB 15.7 billion in 2024 [13] Product Innovation and User Experience - Continuous product innovation has been emphasized, with upgrades to personalized recommendation algorithms and product functionalities [2][8] - The introduction of AI technologies has improved content recommendations and user engagement [16][21] - New features such as personalized audio effects and AI singing have been launched to enhance user experience [11][12] Future Strategies - The company aims to focus on long-term sustainable development, prioritizing user experience and cultivating high-quality user groups, particularly among young users [4][13] - Plans to invest in original music and enhance the music community ecology are set for 2025 [4][17] - The company is actively exploring new marketing strategies to attract more users and enhance member growth [18] Market Position and Competition - The management believes that free music apps may meet some user needs but will not significantly impact NetEase Cloud Music's market position due to the quality of content offered [19] - The company is committed to maintaining a competitive edge through unique content and user experience [19] Cost Management - Operating costs have been effectively managed, with a reduction in content service costs contributing to improved profitability [14][15] - Sales and marketing expenses decreased by 19.3%, reflecting a more cost-effective promotion strategy [15] Additional Important Insights - The company has recognized the importance of AI in enhancing user experience and content quality, viewing it as a long-term competitive advantage [21] - The strategic name change to NetEase Cloud Music aims to align better with user recognition and understanding [19] This summary encapsulates the key developments, financial performance, strategic initiatives, and market positioning of NetEase Cloud Music as discussed in the annual phone conference.

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生或因倚 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 NETEASE CLOUD MUSIC INC. （於開曼群島註冊成立的有限公司） （股份代號：9899） 截至2024年12月31日止年度的年度業績公告 董事會欣然宣佈本公司及其子公司（統稱「本集團」）截至2024年12月31日止年度 的未經審計合併業績。該等未經審計合併年度業績已由董事會的審計委員會連 同我們的管理層審閱。 | | 截至12月31日止年度 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2024年 | 2023年 | 變動(%) | | | （人民幣千元，百分比除外） | | | | 收入 | 7,950,146 | 7,866,992 | +1.1% | | 毛利 | 2,681,512 | 2,102,670 | +27.5% | | 除所得稅前利潤 | 1,570,255 | 767,679 | +104.5% | | 年內利潤 | 1,565,369 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for NetEase Cloud Music (9899.HK) [19] Core Views - NetEase Cloud Music focuses on increasing paid users and improving ARPPU, with future growth driven by both factors [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.3/1.5/1.7 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18/16/14X [2] Business Model and Revenue - Revenue mainly comes from online music services and social entertainment services, accounting for 63% and 37% of total revenue in 24H1 respectively [2] - Online music subscription revenue accounts for 84% of online music service revenue, with advertising and digital albums making up the remaining 16% [2] - Social entertainment service revenue is driven by MAU, payment rate, and ARPPU, with paid users increasing from 5800 in 2018 to 1.6 million in 2023 [10] Financial Performance - NetEase Cloud Music achieved its first annual profit in 2023, with a net profit of 700 million yuan and a net profit margin of 9% [2] - In 24H1, the company's net profit reached 800 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 20% [2] - Gross margin improved significantly from -4% in 21Q1 to 33% in 24Q3 [2] Industry Overview - The global music market is recovering, driven by the growth of streaming services, with China having the highest growth rate in 2023 [81][82] - The global streaming music market is relatively fragmented, with Spotify leading with a 32.1% market share in 2023 [103] - In China, the online music market has formed a "one super, one strong" competitive landscape, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music as the main players [105] Competitive Advantages - NetEase Cloud Music is one of the largest online incubators for independent musicians in China, with registered independent musicians increasing from 400,000 in 2021 to 684,000 in 2023 [121] - The platform has a strong community attribute, with over 48% of listeners browsing the comment section as of June 2021 [113] - The platform's user base is young, with 72% of users being post-00s in 2023 [112] Future Outlook - The company's strategy focuses on increasing paid users and improving ARPPU, with expected net profits of 1.3/1.5/1.7 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026 [2] - Gross margin is expected to continue to improve, reaching 34%/36%/37% in 2024/2025/2026, with net profit margins of 16%/17%/18% [142]