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中信证券:当前黄金无法替代美元,但却能成为对冲美元风险的重要资产
搜狐财经· 2025-04-08 01:01
Core Viewpoint - The value of gold as a hedge against dollar risk is strengthening in the context of high interest rates, high inflation, and low growth, despite the dollar remaining the center of the global monetary system [1][5]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold - The establishment and eventual collapse of the gold standard were influenced by historical events, particularly World War I, which led to high deficits and inflation, causing countries to restrict gold convertibility [1][2]. - The Bretton Woods system emerged as a beneficiary of the gold standard's collapse, but it faced challenges due to the over-reliance on the U.S. economy and the "Triffin dilemma," which ultimately led to its end [2]. - The formation of the Jamaica system in 1976 marked a shift from a gold anchor to a credit anchor, establishing a floating exchange rate system and decoupling currencies from gold [3]. Group 2: Current Global Monetary Environment - The current macroeconomic environment in the U.S. is characterized by high interest rates, high inflation, and low growth, creating tensions between fiscal, economic, and monetary policies [5]. - There is an increasing demand for digital currencies and gold among global central banks, reflecting systemic changes in the global economy post-pandemic [5][6]. Group 3: Gold's Role in the Current Monetary System - Gold cannot replace the dollar but serves as an important asset for hedging against dollar risks, particularly for non-U.S. economies facing domestic inflation and concerns over the dollar's credit system [6][7]. - The influence of gold's anti-inflation, safe-haven, and credit attributes on its price is becoming more pronounced, even as U.S. Federal Reserve policies remain a significant factor [7].
全文|中信证券于翔:对股市不悲观 建议多配置股票资产(视频)
新浪证券· 2025-04-07 06:06
于翔认为,今天A股波动较大,主要是由于中国采取的反制措施超出市场预期,以及海外市场的大幅下 跌。海外市场的下跌源于中国反制措施的出台,使得其他国家与美国达成协议的概率降低,从而引发了 全球市场的恐慌性下跌。而A股的大跌更多是受到海外悲观情绪的带动,实际上并没有那么悲观。 如果中国进行逆周期操作,如在地产、城投领域加杠杆以及推动消费扩张,基本面的改善将更加确定, 这可能会吸引外资回流。此外,特朗普在明年中期选举前可能需要解决美国经济和美股下跌的压力,美 国的宽松政策可能在今年年底到明年上半年出现,与中国宽松周期重叠,他认为当前的大跌是一个布局 的时间点,建议投资者多配置股票,股票市场中顺周期板块的估值较低,适合进行左侧配置。 视频|关税战升级冲击A股?中信证券于翔:系市场过度反应 今日A股市场出现大幅调整,于翔分析表示,此次调整或与投资者对中美关税摩擦升级的过度反应有 关,同时受到海外市场悲观情绪的传导。 具体来看,此次中国反制的力度和果断性超出投资者预期。海外可能没想到(中方)会有这么明确的一 个反制措施,可能还想着4月9号之前我们可以谈。但实际上,对于任何一个国家来说,美国的关税政策 都是不公平的。中国作为 ...
中信证券于翔:当前的大跌是一个布局的时间点 建议多配置股票资产
新浪证券· 2025-04-07 04:33
专题:特朗普实施"对等关税",中国多领域硬核反制美国关税霸凌 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 美国总统特朗普的最新"对等关税"政策计划将对华新增收34%关税,4月9日生效。4月4日中方发布反制 措施,商务部宣布自4月10日起将对原产于美国的进口商品加征34%关税。全球市场巨震,后续会如何 演绎?4月7日,新浪财经连线中信证券政策研究首席分析师于翔深度剖析>>完整视频 于翔认为,今天A股波动较大,主要是由于中国采取的反制措施超出市场预期,以及海外市场的大幅下 跌。海外市场的下跌源于中国反制措施的出台,使得其他国家与美国达成协议的概率降低,从而引发了 全球市场的恐慌性下跌。而A股的大跌更多是受到海外悲观情绪的带动,实际上并没有那么悲观。 于翔 中信证券政策研究首席分析师 执业编号 S1010519110003 直播时间: 4月7日 11:30 9 同时,于翔还表示,如果中国进行逆周期操作,如在地产、城投领域加杠杆以及推动消费扩张,基本面 的改善将更加确定,这可能会吸引外资回流。此外,特朗普在明年中期选举前可能需要解决美国经济和 美股下跌的压力,美国的宽松政策可能在今年年底 ...
中信证券于翔:现在的大跌是个合适的布局时间点
新浪证券· 2025-04-07 04:27
对于今天A股波动较大,于翔指出,今天A股大跌主要是因为中国反制措施超出预期,以及海外市场大 跌。海外市场大跌是因为中国反制让其他国家与美国达成协议的概率降低,导致全球恐慌性下跌。A股 大跌更多是海外悲观情绪带动,其实没有那么悲观。关于后续中美关税加码问题,特朗普中期选举在明 年11月,美股是重要指标,大幅下跌对其政治压力大。如果特朗普继续加码,可能导致美股进一步回 调,反而对其不利,所以后续可能有回暖可能性。从大势研判来看,这次下跌有些过度悲观,建议关注 顺周期领域,因为顺周期板块估值便宜,且内需扩张逻辑更顺,如基建、地产和消费恢复等。 同时,他指出,若中国进行逆周期操作,如在地产、城投加杠杆和消费扩张,基本面改善确定,外资可 能回流。另外,特朗普明年中期选举前可能需要解决美国经济和美股下跌压力,美国宽松政策可能在今 年年底到明年上半年出现,与中国宽松周期重叠,所以,对股市不悲观,于翔认为现在大跌是布局时间 点。 6 微博 专题:特朗普实施"对等关税",中国多领域硬核反制美国关税霸凌 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 美国总统特朗普的最新"对等关税"政策计划将对华新增收 ...
中信证券于翔:中国整个产业链会进行升级 新能源车、低空经济等领域有明显的替代空间
新浪证券· 2025-04-07 04:23
专题:特朗普实施"对等关税",中国多领域硬核反制美国关税霸凌 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 美国总统特朗普的最新"对等关税"政策计划将对华新增收34%关税,4月9日生效。4月4日中方发布反制 措施,商务部宣布自4月10日起将对原产于美国的进口商品加征34%关税。全球市场巨震,后续会如何 演绎?4月7日,新浪财经连线中信证券政策研究首席分析师于翔深度剖析>>完整视频 于翔表示,中国的全面反制措施是针对美国对中国及其他国家实施的所谓"对等关税"所进行的不正当竞 争的应对。美国特朗普政府宣布对等关税后,中国面临关税加码,如加上此前的关税调查等,中国对美 出口的实际税率可能达到68%,这是特朗普政府对中国关税加码的明显提升。中国此次反制是对美国这 种不合理行为的严重抗议。与美国的对等关税政策相比,中国是基于维护自身合法权益和国际贸易秩序 而采取的必要措施,旨在应对美国的不合理加码行为,而非主动发起贸易争端。 他指出,从短期来看,反制措施对中国进出口、产业链成本和经济增长有一定影响。中国经济出口占比 较小,若按照极端情形,美国关税全部加码至54%,预计可能使出口拖累八到九个百 ...
中信证券:2025年清明出游需求旺盛 关注油价大跌传导至航司利润端
智通财经网· 2025-04-07 01:43
智通财经APP获悉,中信证券发布研报称,2025年清明出游需求旺盛,周边游和短途出境游热度高涨, 预计国际航班量将恢复至2019年同期约九成。航班管家预计清明节全票价同比跌幅或7.9%,低引进趋 势确认,国际油价暴跌,将对航司业绩形成有力支撑,期待顺周期、促消费政策传导至航空需求端。3 月以来行业票价同比跌幅逐步企稳走窄,航班管家预计清明节全票价同比跌幅或7.9%,低引进趋势确 认,期待行业票价表现逐步从"行业自律"向"供需优化"过渡,期待顺周期、促消费政策传导至需求端。 利好因素不断累积,淡季航司利润表现有望同比改善,继续推荐航空股的布局机会。 国内客座率或创历史新高,日均人次同比增长或超10%,国际航班量恢复率或九成左右 据航班管家统计,2025年清明节假期首日全民航客运航班量同比增长6.2%,其中国内线航班量同比增 长3.2%,国际线航班量同比增长30.2%,恢复至2019年同期的87.9%。航班管家预测,2025年清明假期 全民航日均航班量、客运量将同比增长5.7%、10.3%,航空出行人数同比高增、需求旺盛(2024年劳动 节/端午民航日均客运量同比增长8.1%/7.9%),该行预计客座率将升至历史 ...
海创药业: 中信证券股份有限公司关于海创药业股份有限公司首次公开发行部分限售股上市流通的核查意见
证券之星· 2025-04-03 11:46
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities provides a thorough review of the restricted shares of Haichuang Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. that are set to be listed for trading, confirming compliance with relevant regulations and the fulfillment of commitments by shareholders [1][5]. Group 1: Restricted Shares Overview - The total number of restricted shares to be listed is 8,790,661 shares, which represents 8.8780% of the company's total share capital [3][4]. - The listing date for these restricted shares is April 14, 2025, due to April 12, 2025, being a non-trading day [3][4]. Group 2: Shareholder Commitments - Shareholders, including Chengdu Haichuang Tongli Enterprise Management Center (Limited Partnership), Hinova United LLC, and Amhiron LLC, have committed not to transfer or manage the restricted shares for 36 months from the date of the company's stock listing [2]. - The shareholders have also agreed that any reduction in their holdings after the lock-up period will not exceed the legal limits set by regulations [2]. Group 3: Compliance and Verification - CITIC Securities confirms that the shareholders have adhered to their commitments regarding the restricted shares, and the listing of these shares complies with the Company Law, Securities Law, and other relevant regulations [5].
中信证券:价格改革进一步深化 电力、水务、燃气等公用事业价格有望更加市场化
智通财经网· 2025-04-03 00:36
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the deepening of price reforms and the improvement of governance mechanisms will lead to more market-oriented pricing in public utilities such as electricity, water, and gas [1][2] - The recent guidance from the Central Committee and the State Council emphasizes the need to enhance market price formation mechanisms and improve price regulation, which will support high-quality economic development [2] - The electricity market reform aims to establish a multi-level market system and improve pricing mechanisms for various power sources, which is expected to benefit large hydropower projects as prices become more market-oriented [3] Group 2 - Water pricing mechanisms need optimization to address the slow adjustment frequency and rising losses in the water supply industry, with the new guidelines expected to accelerate price reforms [4] - The sewage treatment fee structure is under pressure due to low government payments and user charges, and the new policies aim to alleviate the increasing accounts receivable issues in the sewage industry [4] - The gas price adjustment mechanism is being deepened, with several regions already increasing residential gas prices, which is expected to enhance the profitability of urban gas companies [5] Group 3 - The investment strategy suggests that the market-oriented pricing mechanisms will benefit large hydropower projects, improve water utility operations, and enhance the profitability of leading urban gas companies [7][8]
中信证券股份有限公司关于航天时代电子技术股份有限公司2024年度持续督导报告书
上海证券报· 2025-04-02 18:21
Core Viewpoint - The company successfully completed a non-public offering of shares, raising a total of RMB 413.56 million, with a net amount of RMB 411.59 million after deducting issuance costs [1][2]. Group 1: Non-Public Offering Details - The company issued 64,618,750 shares at a price of RMB 7.13 per share, approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1]. - The funds raised will be subject to verification by the accounting firm Zhongxing Caiguanghua, which confirmed the funds' arrival on July 18, 2023 [1]. - The Shanghai Branch of China Securities Depository and Clearing Co., Ltd. completed the securities change registration related to this issuance on July 31, 2023 [1]. Group 2: Continuous Supervision by Sponsor - The sponsor, CITIC Securities, established a continuous supervision work system and a corresponding work plan, clarifying the requirements for on-site inspections [2]. - A sponsorship agreement was signed between the sponsor and the company, outlining the rights and obligations during the supervision period [2]. - Continuous supervision included daily communication, on-site visits, and compliance with relevant regulations and normative documents [3]. Group 3: Review of Information Disclosure - The sponsor reviewed the company's governance documents, financial management, internal control systems, and internal audit reports [3]. - The sponsor conducted interviews with senior management and monitored media reports related to the company [3][4]. - The sponsor found that the company had established and executed an information disclosure system in accordance with relevant laws and regulations during the supervision period [5]. Group 4: Reporting Matters - During the continuous supervision period, the sponsor did not identify any matters that required reporting to the China Securities Regulatory Commission or the Shanghai Stock Exchange [5].
电气风电: 中信证券股份有限公司关于上海电气风电集团股份有限公司持续督导保荐总结报告书
证券之星· 2025-04-02 14:02
Company Overview - The company is Shanghai Electric Wind Power Group Co., Ltd., with the stock code 688660.SH and registered in Shanghai [1] - The legal representative is Qiao Yinping, and the actual controller is the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [1] Issuance Overview - The company received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on March 23, 2021, for its initial public offering (IPO) of 533,333,400 shares at a price of 5.44 RMB per share, raising a total of 2,901,333,696.00 RMB [2] - After deducting issuance costs, the net amount raised was 2,799,069,742.52 RMB [2] - The company was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board on May 19, 2021 [2] Sponsorship Work Overview - The sponsor, CITIC Securities, conducted due diligence and coordinated with various intermediaries during the IPO process, ensuring compliance with legal and regulatory requirements [3] - The sponsor actively communicated with the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission during the review process [3] - The continuous supervision period by the sponsor is set to end on December 31, 2024 [2][3] Major Events During Sponsorship - No significant events occurred during the sponsorship period [4] Company Cooperation with Sponsorship - The company cooperated fully with the sponsor during the due diligence and supervision processes, with no issues affecting the sponsorship work [5] Information Disclosure Review - The sponsor reviewed the company's information disclosure documents and found that the company established and executed its information disclosure system in accordance with relevant laws and regulations [5] Fund Usage Review - The sponsor reviewed the usage of the raised funds and confirmed that the company complied with regulations regarding the storage and use of the funds [5] - As of December 31, 2024, the company had used a total of 2.457 billion RMB of the raised funds, with a remaining balance of 388 million RMB [5]