好的，各位投资者，大家下午好，我是国信食品分析师杨苑。我们今天这一场会议，非常 有幸的请到了重庆啤酒的董秘邓总来跟我们做这一场交流。在我们正式开始之前，这里还 是要强调一下我们的会议纪律。我们这次会议的话也是策略会，我们采用的是报名制，所 以也是一个非常小范围的交流，也希望大家不要把我们这次交流的任何的内容向外传播， 然后我们大家一起来进行接下来的讨论。好，郑总请问您能听得到吗？ 发言人 4 0:00:37 能听得到，谢谢杨燕，谢谢各位投资者时间。 发言人 3 0:00:41 好的，谢谢邓总的时间。好，那我这边的话就先向邓总先去进行请教。我们在线的投资者 的话，如果有任何问题也可以在线上一键举手提问，或者是把问题发给我，由我来这边来 问也可以。好，那我这边的话就抓紧时间先向郑总进行一个请教我就先来提问一个关于渠 道的一个问题。因为我们之前在业绩交流会那个业绩快报完了一个交流会的时候，公司其 实也是多次强调在飞力达渠道这边的一个布局。其实我们从自身终端的一个调研情况来看 我们会发现在超市，便利店，流通这些终端，我们会发现重啤的这个渗透率确实是有提高 的。 特别是我们有观察到像 1664、乌苏这些产品的排名也非常 ...

我们应该是从二三年到下半年就已经看到现影的这个恢复是相对而言是比较疲弱的那我们在那个时候呢就加强了在非现影渠道的投放非现影渠道呢确实也是过去呢啤酒行业包括我们自己都是把现影渠道呢作为重点我们所有的新品 所有的这个包括品牌的广告都是和信誉去做这样的一个长深度的这样的一个绑定所以说从结构来讲和终端的售价来讲信誉渠道的价格和结构都远远要高于我们的这个非信誉渠道非信誉渠道如果从现在来看在超市里面还有机会看到 一块多两块多一瓶的这样的一些啊超低端的这样一些啤酒而这些这种价格的啤酒你付一元一看也两千多块钱一吨其实肯定从这个这个赚钱的角度来讲他肯定从单品来看都是亏损的啊所以呢飞行引渠道呢第一个要做的呢首先呢我们要把飞行引渠道的这个呃沉降和铺货要做下去对于我们来讲我们 在全国相对而言我们的这个销售终端的这个颗粒度啊密集程度啊这个网络相对而言是有更大的成长的那样的一些空间啊另外呢刚刚也提到这个结构上的消费习惯形成结构上的原因飞行渠道的整体的这个均价相对而言要低一些啊我们还要 从环境来讲还有机会在非线引渠道去提升我们的这个结构带来这个高端化的这样一些成长所以我们在今年其实在去年也有我们在非线引渠道就要通过产品除了费用的投放以及这 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Beer is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to face short-term pressure due to weak demand and inventory destocking, but high dividends are likely to continue [4][7] - For 2024, the company forecasts revenue of 14.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.15%, and a net profit of 1.244 billion yuan, down 6.84% year-on-year [4][9] - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, with net profit estimates revised to 1.244 billion yuan, 1.351 billion yuan, and 1.433 billion yuan respectively [4][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects a 0.75% decline in sales volume for 2024, primarily due to weak restaurant consumption and increased rainy weather [5] - The average price per ton is projected to decrease by 0.4% due to a decline in the share of on-premise consumption channels [5] - The net profit margin is expected to decline due to a decrease in product structure and increased depreciation costs from new factory operations [6] Cash Flow and Dividends - Despite facing challenges, the company maintains good cash flow, and high dividends are expected to provide strong support for the stock price [7] - The company plans to increase investments in non-on-premise channels to improve product structure [7] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 21.5 for 2024, 19.8 for 2025, and 18.6 for 2026 [4][9] - The projected EPS for 2024-2026 is 2.57 yuan, 2.79 yuan, and 2.96 yuan respectively [4][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 14.645 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.15%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.84% [2][3] - The performance is under pressure due to weak sales volume and pricing, with a projected sales volume of 2.975 million tons in 2024, down 0.75% year-on-year [3] - Despite the short-term challenges, the company is expected to maintain a high dividend level, with cash dividend ratios of 83.0%, 99.6%, and 101.4% for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company anticipates a revenue of 14.645 billion yuan, with a slight decline in net profit to 1.245 billion yuan [5] - The gross margin is expected to decrease to 48.5% in 2024 from 49.1% in 2023 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 2.57 yuan, down from 2.76 yuan in 2023 [5] Sales and Market Dynamics - The sales volume is projected to decline to 2.975 million tons in 2024, with a quarterly breakdown showing a significant drop in Q4 [3] - The company faces challenges in high-end product sales, with brands like 1664 and Uusu experiencing a decline, while others like Lebao and Carlsberg continue to grow [3] Future Outlook - The company aims to explore new growth opportunities and expand non-drinking channels, with expectations for revenue stability in 2025 [4] - The projected revenues for 2025 and 2026 are 14.789 billion yuan and 14.968 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 1.267 billion yuan and 1.298 billion yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Beer is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to generate a total revenue of 14.645 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.15% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.245 billion yuan, down 6.84% year-on-year [1][3]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.582 billion yuan, a decline of 11.5% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to the parent company of 87 million yuan, indicating a significant increase in losses compared to the previous year [1][3]. - The beer industry is facing challenges due to changes in consumption habits and scenarios, particularly in dining and entertainment channels, leading to a decline in sales volume [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The sales volume for 2024 is projected to be 2.975 million kiloliters, a decrease of 0.75% year-on-year, with a slight decline in revenue per ton by 0.4% [2]. - The company's net profit margin and operating profit margin are expected to decrease by 0.5 and 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, indicating reduced scale effects due to declining sales [3]. Strategic Outlook - The company plans to continue its "Sailing 27" strategy, focusing on expanding its market share through a diversified brand portfolio and high-end strategy, while also enhancing non-dining channel development and increasing canning rates [3]. - The company anticipates a recovery in dining and nightlife consumption scenarios with the introduction of consumption promotion policies [3]. Earnings Forecast - The adjusted earnings forecast for 2024-2026 is as follows: revenue of 14.645 billion yuan in 2024, 14.749 billion yuan in 2025, and 15.168 billion yuan in 2026; net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.245 billion yuan in 2024, 1.280 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.351 billion yuan in 2026 [3][5].

——现饮渠道需求承压 提升罐化率优化产品结构 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（下调） 食品饮料 2025 年 02 月 08 日 重庆啤酒 (600132) | 市场数据： | 2025 年 02 月 07 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 55.20 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 77.00/50.85 | | 市净率 | 12.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 7.79 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 26,715 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,303.67/10,576.00 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | 上 市 公 司 | 基础数据: | 2024 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 4.41 | | 资产负债率% | 66.84 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 484/484 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 02-07 03-07 04-07 05-07 06-07 07-07 08-07 09-07 10-07 1 ...

公司研究 量价承压，静待需求好转 ——重庆啤酒（600132.SH）2024 年业绩快报点评 要点 事件： 24 年公司实现收入 146.45 亿元，同比-1.15%；实现归母净利润 12.45 亿元，同比-6.84%；实现扣非归母净利润 12.22 亿元，同比-7.04%。其中，24Q4 实现收入 15.82 亿元，同比-11.45%；实现归母净利润-8675 万元，亏损同比扩 大；实现扣非归母净利润-8405 万元，亏损同比扩大。 外部环境影响叠加高基数和去库存，24Q4 销量下滑较多。24 年受外部消费环 境变化以及旺季极端气候条件影响，啤酒行业在现饮渠道面临压力。受此影响， 24 年公司整体销量同比下降 0.75%，每百升营收同比下降约 0.4%，每百升营 收下滑与渠道结构变化有关，非现饮渠道高端化进程比现饮渠道慢，24 年非现 饮渠道收入占比持续提升，一定程度影响均价。其中 24Q4 量/价分别下降 8.0%/ 3.7%，第四季度销量下滑较多除外部环境影响外，也与公司 23Q4 的销量基数 较高和产品去库存有关。 2025 年 2 月 9 日 分产品看，我们估计 24 年高端产品疆外乌苏和 1664 ...

公司点评报告 · 食品饮料行业 淡季延续疲弱表现 2025 年 2 月 7 日 主要财务指标预测 分析师 刘来珍 ：021-2025-2647 ：liulaizhen_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523040001 | | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 14814.84 | 14644.60 | 14689.47 | 15065.89 | | | 收入增长率% | 5.53 | -1.15 | 0.31 | 2.56 | | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1336.60 | 1245.21 | 1298.20 | 1344.51 | | | 利润增速% | 5.78 | -6.84 | 4.26 | 3.57 | | | 毛利率% | 49.15 | 48.99 | 48.86 | 48.98 | | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 2.76 | 2.57 | 2.68 | 2.78 | 放缓，但有韧性 | | PE | 19.99 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Chongqing Beer [1][4] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 fell short of expectations, with total revenue, net profit attributable to shareholders, and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 14.645 billion, 1.245 billion, and 1.222 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year declines of -1.15%, -6.84%, and -7.04% [2] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw significant pressure on profits, with revenue and profit figures of 1.582 billion and -0.87 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year revenue decline of -11.45% and a loss in profit [2] - The company is committed to a high-end strategy and plans to increase the development of non-drinking channels, with high-end products expected to grow in sales while some brands like Chongqing and others are projected to decline [3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company experienced a decline in both volume and price, with sales volume down by -0.75% and -8.03% in 2024 and Q4 respectively, primarily due to challenges in the dining and entertainment channels and adverse weather conditions in some markets [2] - The average price per unit also decreased, with declines of -0.40% and -3.72% for the full year and Q4 respectively [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to enhance its high-end product offerings and reduce the proportion of mid-to-low-end products in non-drinking channels, while also promoting non-beer products [3] - In 2025, the company will continue to refine its non-drinking channel management by segmenting it into nine channels and teams, aiming to improve operational efficiency [3] Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been adjusted to 2.57, 2.71, and 2.92 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21, 20, and 19 times [4] - The company is expected to benefit from lower barley costs in 2025, although it will face increased depreciation expenses from the Foshan factory and freight optimization [3]

证券代码：600132 证券简称：重庆啤酒 公告编号：2025-001 重庆啤酒股份有限公司 2024年度业绩快报公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大 遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 本公告所载2024年度主要财务数据为初步核算数据，未经会计师事务所审计， 具体数据以公司2024年年度报告中披露的数据为准，提请投资者注意投资风险。 一、2024年度主要财务数据和指标 单位：人民币万元 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | 增减变动 幅度（％） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 1,464,459.78 | 1,481,483.64 | -1.15 | | 营业利润 | 318,451.43 | 335,279.44 | -5.02 | | 利润总额 | 317,395.68 | 337,569.06 | -5.98 | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利润 | 124,521.49 | 133,659.73 | -6.84 | | 归属于上市公司股东的扣除非 经常性损益的净利润 | 122,151.40 ...