[Table_Page] 投资策略月报|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产行业 26 年 1 月市场总结 市场信心逐步回升，主流标的表现优异 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-02-26 [相对市场表现 Table_PicQuote] [分析师： Table_Author]郭镇 SAC 执证号：S0260514080003 SFC CE No. BNN906 021-38003639 guoz@gf.com.cn 分析师： 邢莘 SAC 执证号：S0260520070009 021-38003638 xingshen@gf.com.cn 分析师： 谢淼 SAC 执证号：S0260522070007 SFC CE No. BVB342 021-38003637 xiemiao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 李怡慧 SAC 执证号：S0260524040001 SFC CE No. BVI219 021-38003636 liyihui@gf.com.cn 分析师： 辛恬 SAC 执证号：S026052 ...

格隆汇2月25日｜太平洋证券研报指出，经建发股份初步测算披露， 2025年度实现营业收入6,736 亿元 到6,936亿元之间。预计公司将会在26-27年，优化以上2类泛地产子公司的精细化管理力度，降本增 效。随着我国存量房改善性需求的持续释放，家居零售市场有可能在26年底逐渐恢复稳健的状态。25年 公司海外供应链业务规模约140亿美元，同比增长约37%，稳健盈利。叠加公司已发布未来5年的供应链 三大战略目标，看好公司此举，有望奠定未来业绩增长空间，继续维持"增持"评级。 ...

2026 年 02 月 23 日 公司点评 增持/维持 建发股份(600153) 目标价: 昨收盘:9.28 ■ 事件 2026 年 1 月，建发股份发布业绩预告。预计 2025 年度实现归母净 利润为-100 亿元至-52 亿元。2024 年全年归母净利润为 29.5 亿。 ■ 点评 经公司初步测算披露，2025 年度实现营业收入 6,736 亿元到 6,936 亿元之间。其中三个子板块，拆分情况如下： >>供应链板块，营收约 5200 亿元，利润盈利约+33 亿； 建发股份，2025 业绩预告点评，供应链盈利稳，地产亏损减值 ◼ 走势比较 总股本/流通(亿股) 29/29 总市值/流通(亿元) 269.08/269.08 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 11.71/8.68 证券分析师：程志峰 电话：010-88321701 E-MAIL：chengzf@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190513090001 >>房地产板块：营收约 1570 亿元，同比 2024 年下降约-15%，主要 系子公司建发房产和联发集团因交付项目减少导致结转收入减少利润减 少；利润约-65 亿至-53 亿元，主要系 ...

推荐建发股份的时机在于去年 12 月中旬仓位洗净后，目前 9 元左右的 位置稳健，是短期利空出尽后的最佳配置时机。从相对估值、股息率和 NAV 来看，公司折价深，安全垫充裕，攻防兼备。 建发国际深耕高能级城市，选择优质土地储备项目。截至 2025 年中期， 公司未售土地储备面积约为 1,500 万平方米，对应货值 2,700 亿元，相 当于 2024 年销售额的两倍左右。土储周转速度快且质量高。 对于未来一段时间内地产基本面的判断是什么？ 各个城市企稳时间点会有所不同。基本面最好的城市如北京、上海和成都，有 望在今年三季度末或四季度逐步企稳，中概率情形可能要到 2027 年，小概率 则是在今年上半年。因此，在未来一段时间里，如果数据边际回调且股价盘整， 从一年维度投资博弈视角来看，目前是一个较高性价比的建仓时机。只要资金 进入，这个板块就能迅速反弹 30%至 40%。 建发股份 20260223 摘要 房地产市场挂牌量下降，价格跌幅收窄，部分城市或已触底，配置地产 股的必要性增加。多数股票估值仍低于去年三季度水平，折价空间 30%-40%。未来行情依赖核心城市量价及政策突破。 北京、上海和成都等基本面较好的城 ...

行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《上海三区启动住房以旧换新，推动 新房去库存 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.4 行 业 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 《2025Q4 公募基金延续低配，持股集 中度进一步提升—行业点评报告》 -2026.1.27 《销售延续调整态势，期待政策显效 与市场筑底 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.1.19 楼市延续筑底行情，政策宽松下布局时点已至 ——行业点评报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | huyaowen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070001 春节市场成交量：一手房网签偏弱，二手房基本持平 一手房方面，2026 年除夕前一周 40 城市合计一手房成交 133.68 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jianfa Co., Ltd. (建发股份), has revised its 2025 financial outlook, projecting significant losses due to underperformance in its real estate and home furnishing segments, with a shift from profit to substantial losses [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Jianfa Co., Ltd. expects 2025 revenue to be between 673.6 billion to 693.6 billion yuan, with a projected net loss attributable to shareholders ranging from 10 billion to 5.2 billion yuan [1] - The supply chain business is anticipated to generate revenue of 510 billion to 530 billion yuan, while real estate development is expected to contribute approximately 157 billion yuan, and home furnishing operations around 6.6 billion yuan [1] - The net profit margin for the supply chain business is projected to be between 0.63% to 0.67%, with real estate and home furnishing segments expected to incur significant losses [1] Group 2: Real Estate Business Performance - Jianfa Co., Ltd.'s real estate operations are managed by subsidiaries Jianfa Real Estate and Lianfa Group, which have shown contrasting performance [2] - Jianfa Real Estate is projected to achieve a net profit of approximately 6 billion yuan in 2025, while Lianfa Group is expected to incur a net loss between 10.8 billion to 9.3 billion yuan [3] - Lianfa Group's losses are attributed to market downturns and adjustments in sales strategies, leading to significant inventory write-downs estimated between 6 billion to 8 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Home Furnishing Operations - The home furnishing segment, primarily operated by subsidiary Meikailong, is expected to generate revenue of about 6.6 billion yuan but face a net loss between 22.5 billion to 15 billion yuan [4] - The decline in demand in the home retail market and reduced rental income have led to a significant drop in the fair value of investment properties, estimated to decrease by 12.6 billion to 21.5 billion yuan [4][5] - Meikailong has also made provisions for asset impairments ranging from 4.5 billion to 5.7 billion yuan, affecting various asset categories [5]

Group 1 - The former chairman Wang Wenhui of Junlong Life Insurance Co., Ltd. resigned due to personal reasons, effective from February 7, with Zou Shaorong taking over the chairman duties [1] - Zou Shaorong, born in 1976, holds a master's degree in law from Xiamen University and has held various positions within Xiamen Jianfa Group, including legal advisor and deputy general manager [3] - Junlong Life Insurance is jointly funded by Jianfa Group and a Taiwanese insurance company, each holding a 50% stake [3] Group 2 - The latest solvency report indicates that Junlong Life Insurance is projected to achieve an insurance business revenue of 2.638 billion yuan and a net profit of 376 million yuan by 2025 [3] - As of the end of Q4 2025, the company's core solvency adequacy ratio is 125.00%, and the comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio is 170.80%, with recent risk ratings at BBB level [3] - Under Wang Wenhui's leadership since June 2019, Junlong Life Insurance turned profitable after 11 years of losses, reporting a net profit of 8 million yuan in 2020 and further increasing to 31 million yuan in 2021 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Xiamen C&D Inc. (hereinafter referred to as "C&D Inc.") has announced a projected net loss of 5.2 billion to 10 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to non-cash losses, while its core supply chain operations remain profitable and its global expansion shows significant results [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected loss is mainly attributed to increased inventory impairment provisions at its subsidiary, Lianfa Group Co., Ltd., and losses from fair value changes of investment properties at Red Star Macalline Group [2]. - C&D Inc. had previously accounted for the potential impairments related to Red Star Macalline in its acquisition price, which was approximately 21 billion yuan for 100% equity, with a corresponding net asset value of about 52.8 billion yuan [2]. - Despite the negative apparent profits from Red Star Macalline since Q4 2023, the overall impact on C&D Inc.'s financials remains manageable, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 6.686 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. Group 2: Strategic Development - C&D Inc. continues to maintain a solid performance in its core supply chain operations, which serve as a stabilizing factor for the company amid financial pressures [4]. - The company has outlined a strategic development plan for its supply chain operations from 2026 to 2030, focusing on high-quality growth and reinforcing its brand positioning as "Chinese-style trading company with global development" [4]. - The company aims to accelerate its internationalization efforts, with a target of achieving an overseas business scale of 14 billion USD (approximately 1 billion yuan) by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 37% [4]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Industry experts believe that the projected loss for 2025 is a superficial impact due to cyclical fluctuations in the industry, and the core operational quality of C&D Inc. remains unchanged [6]. - The steady profitability of the supply chain business and the ongoing deepening of global expansion are expected to lay a solid foundation for the company's long-term development [6].

| 股票代码：600153 | 股票简称：建发股份 | 公告编号：临2026—006 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：115755 | 债券简称：23建发Y1 | | | 债券代码：240217 | 债券简称：23建发Y2 | | | 债券代码：240650 | 债券简称：24建发Y1 | | | 债券代码：241016 | 债券简称：24建发Y2 | | | 债券代码：241137 | 债券简称：24建发Y3 | | | 债券代码：241265 | 债券简称：24建发Y4 | | | 债券代码：241266 | 债券简称：24建发Y5 | | 厦门建发股份有限公司 关于上海证券交易所业绩预告相关事项监管工作函 的回复公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 厦门建发股份有限公司(以下简称"公司"或"建发股份")于近期收到上海 证券交易所《关于厦门建发股份有限公司业绩预告相关事项的监管工作函》(上 证公函【2026】0132 号)(以下简称"工作函")，工作函内容及回复列示如下： 2026 ...

Core Viewpoint - The conference focused on the application of lithium carbonate futures in the new energy industry, aiming to enhance industry collaboration and innovation [1][7]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The event was hosted by Jianfa Co., Ltd. and supported by various financial institutions, providing a platform for in-depth discussions on market trends and futures tools related to lithium carbonate [1][7]. - Key leaders from Jianfa Co., Ltd., CITIC Futures, and Guangzhou Futures Exchange attended the conference, highlighting the importance of the event in promoting green development [1][3]. Group 2: Key Presentations - Zhang Yuan from CITIC Futures discussed the specific applications of lithium carbonate futures and options in enterprise risk management, offering targeted risk control suggestions [5][12]. - Hu Junlong from Shanghai Zeyuan Business Consulting reviewed the lithium battery industry's trends and provided forecasts for the rapid growth of energy storage projects by 2026, impacting lithium salt demand [5][12]. - Xia Meng, Assistant General Manager of Jianfa Chemical, shared insights on how the company utilizes futures and options to lock in costs and manage risks, while planning for future industry collaboration [5][12]. Group 3: Industry Insights - Jianfa Co., Ltd. has been exploring a business model that combines futures and spot markets, focusing on core products like lithium carbonate to enhance financial services and risk management capabilities [6][13]. - The company aims to provide a safety net for upstream producers through price management and capacity locking, while offering flexible pricing models to downstream application enterprises [6][13]. - The successful hosting of the conference marks a new phase in collaboration and innovation between Jianfa Co., Ltd., Guangzhou Futures Exchange, CITIC Futures, and industry partners, with a commitment to the stable and high-quality development of the lithium carbonate industry [6][13].