Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in China is undergoing a deep adjustment, with significant declines in investment, sales area, and sales revenue in 2025, indicating a challenging market environment [1][3][9]. Investment and Sales Data - In 2025, national real estate development investment reached 82,788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2% [1]. - The sales area of new commercial housing was 88,101 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, while the sales revenue was 83,937 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% decline [1][9]. - The construction area for real estate developers was 659,890 million square meters, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, with residential construction down 10.3% [3]. Construction Activity - New construction area was 58,770 million square meters, down 20.4%, with residential new construction area at 42,984 million square meters, a decline of 19.8% [4]. - The completion area was 60,348 million square meters, down 18.1%, with residential completions at 42,830 million square meters, a decrease of 20.2% [4]. Market Dynamics - The market is still in a "de-inventory" phase due to declining new home sales and significantly reduced land transactions over the past two years [5]. - Some central and state-owned enterprises are maintaining orderly construction activities, and there is still demand for well-located properties, which is boosting market confidence [6]. Financial Policies and Support - Local governments are enhancing "guarantee delivery" efforts, with recent financial policies aimed at stabilizing financing for projects on the "white list," which will support the delivery of homes [7]. Leading Companies - In 2025, ten real estate companies achieved sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, with four surpassing 200 billion yuan. These include major players like Poly Development, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Vanke [9]. - The top ten companies by investment are primarily state-owned enterprises, with significant investments from China Overseas, China Resources, Poly Development, and China Merchants Shekou, indicating a strategic positioning during market adjustments [9]. Market Trends - December 2025 showed signs of improvement, with new commercial housing sales area increasing by 39.87% month-on-month and sales revenue rising by 44.07% [10]. - The average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities saw a slight decrease, with Shanghai experiencing a minor increase, while other cities like Beijing and Guangzhou reported declines [10][11]. - The second-hand housing market is also seeing a shift, with increased transactions in second-hand homes as buyers seek more affordable options [12].

厦门供应链"三巨头"亮剑！五年战略蓝图重磅发布 近日，厦门大宗商品供应链领域的"三巨头"——厦门象屿（600057）、厦门国贸（600755）、建发股份 （600153）——相继亮出五年战略蓝图，清晰描绘出2026年至2030年供应链头部企业的跃升路径。 建发集团则聚焦提升"专业化、国际化、数智化、预见力、资源力"五大核心竞争力，筑牢主业高质量发 展根基。在资源力层面，公司将统筹、优化全盘资源配置，并通过股权投资、战略合作和自主建设等方 式，获取并整合产业链上下游关键节点的重要物流与产业资源，提高对核心要素的掌控能力，提升供应 链的安全性与稳定性，比如在物流层面，对内构建统一的物流支持体系，对外加大物流投资，增强物流 体系综合实力。此外，公司将主动链接外部资源，构建独特的资源组合与产业生态，增强行业话语权和 影响力，提升企业核心竞争力。 通过从单纯交易转向资源整合，企业能够深度嵌入产业链上下游，显著增强对全链条的影响力与话语 权。尤其是在传统贸易领域，资源掌控不仅是抵御外部风险的关键屏障，更是构建差异化竞争优势、形 成行业领导地位的核心要素，最终推动企业从被动参与者转变为产业链的主导者。 出海战略再升级 随着 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while second-hand home prices fell by 6.1% in 2025, with core cities experiencing a significant decline [1][2]. - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investments in this area can reflect broader economic trends [4]. - It notes that the competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [4]. Summary by Sections New Home Market - In December 2025, new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing price changes of -1.7%, -2.5%, and -3.7% respectively [1][11]. - The report indicates that new home prices increased in 5 cities while decreasing in 65 cities throughout the year, with Shanghai showing a consistent month-on-month increase [1]. Second-Hand Home Market - The second-hand home prices in 70 cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month and 6.1% year-on-year, with all cities experiencing a decline [2][12]. - The report notes that after a brief stabilization in some cities post-September 2024, the second-hand home prices resumed their downward trend starting in the second quarter of 2025 [2]. Transaction Volume - For new homes, the transaction volume in 30 cities was 117.7 million square meters, reflecting a 1.3% decrease month-on-month and a 38.1% decrease year-on-year [3][25]. - In the second-hand market, the transaction volume in 15 cities totaled 213.9 million square meters, showing a 3.9% increase month-on-month but a 4.0% decrease year-on-year [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly in first-tier and select second-tier cities, as these areas are expected to benefit from policy changes and market dynamics [4]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Green Town China, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments among others [4].

Core Insights - The report indicates a sustained optimistic sentiment in the real estate sector, suggesting that the market performance is likely to continue positively throughout the year [1]. Group 1: Policy Environment - Central policies have seen few new measures, maintaining a loose stance towards the real estate sector. Recent actions include the extension of tax incentives for public rental housing and a reduction in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [5][16]. - Local policies focus on long-term strategies in major cities, with initiatives aimed at urban renewal and optimizing land use policies [5][16]. Group 2: Transaction Performance - New home transactions remain low, with a year-on-year decline of 31.3% in the first 22 days of January, while second-hand home transactions have shown a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [5][9]. - The number of second-hand home subscriptions has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 59.8% in the same period [5][9]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The new housing supply is in a seasonal downturn, with a 12% decrease in new home launches week-on-week. However, the transaction volume slightly exceeds the supply, indicating a market adjustment [5][9]. - The land supply and transaction scale have contracted sharply, with a 67% year-on-year decrease in land transaction value [5][9]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The real estate sector has shown strong performance, with a 5.2% increase in the SW real estate index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.8 percentage points [5][9]. - Major real estate companies have experienced notable stock price increases, with leading firms like Greentown and China Merchants Shekou seeing significant gains [5][9]. Group 5: C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs sector has seen a 2.29% increase in the comprehensive return index, with 68 out of 78 REITs reporting gains this week [5][9].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant loss in 2025, with projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from -10 billion to -5.2 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 2.946 billion yuan in 2024 [1] Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of -10 billion to -5.2 billion yuan for 2025, a stark contrast to the profit of 2.946 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between -6.5 billion and -3.2 billion yuan, down from 1.905 billion yuan in 2024 [1] Group 2: Reasons for Loss - The loss is primarily attributed to negative profit recognition from Lianfa Group and a significant increase in inventory impairment provisions, with Lianfa Group's revenue recognition declining year-on-year [1] - The company has also reported a substantial decrease in the fair value of investment properties at Meikailong, leading to the recognition of asset and credit impairment provisions due to changing rental expectations [1] Group 3: Dividend and Cash Flow - Despite the anticipated loss, the company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.2 yuan per share, totaling 580 million yuan, and maintains a commitment to a full-year dividend of no less than 0.7 yuan per share for 2025 [2] - The expected loss is mainly due to non-cash losses, which are not expected to significantly impact operational cash flow, and the parent company's retained earnings remain positive [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company's supply chain and Jianfa Real Estate division are expected to continue operating steadily, contributing positively to profits [2] - Following the substantial impairment provisions from Lianfa Group and Meikailong, the company is anticipated to alleviate negative factors affecting its performance and valuation, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being -9.42 billion, 2.93 billion, and 4.46 billion yuan respectively [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][29]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives emphasizing the stabilization of the real estate market. The report notes a positive shift in industry sentiment and anticipates favorable policy developments in the future [3][29]. - The report identifies attractive valuation levels for quality companies, with some firms' price-to-book (PB) ratios at historical lows, making them appealing investment opportunities [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The report notes that first and second-tier cities experienced a 0.6% decrease in transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a 17.7% increase [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, down 0.2% week-on-week. Year-to-date figures show a 9.6% decline compared to the previous January [13][29]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [23][29]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to promote urban renewal, with various cities actively developing urban renewal plans. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of high-quality real estate development and the need for tailored policies [29][33]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a 17.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for 2025, with new residential sales area down 8.7% [29][33]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have released their expected net profit for 2025, with notable losses projected for companies like Jianfa Holdings and Jindi Group, while Poly Development anticipates a profit of 1.03 billion yuan [37][29]. - Financing activities are active among various firms, with China Overseas Development issuing bonds totaling 25 billion yuan, and Vanke's bond extension proposal receiving approval [37][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Buy" rating for the real estate industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in second-hand home subscriptions and a strengthening of transaction confidence [7][15]. - The average daily subscription for second-hand homes in 79 cities reached 3,404 units from January 1 to January 22, 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.1% compared to the same period in 2025 [16][27]. - The report highlights that the market is experiencing a self-driven recovery without significant large-scale stimulus policies being implemented [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Second-Hand Homes: Significant Growth in Subscriptions and Record High Conversion Rates - Overall transactions show a recovery in lower-tier cities, although this has not yet fully translated into net signing [15]. - In key cities, second-hand home subscriptions in first-tier cities like Guangzhou are relatively stable, while many lower-tier cities are experiencing growth [31]. - The conversion rate of visits to transactions has reached a new high, with a 5.6% conversion rate in 70 cities, up from the previous quarter [35]. 2. New Homes: Low Net Signing Levels Across All Tiers - The average daily net signing for new homes in 45 cities was 250,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 42.1% [29]. - All tiers of cities are experiencing varying degrees of decline in new home net signing, with first-tier cities seeing the most significant drops [29]. 3. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of January 22, 2026, the average price of second-hand homes in 33 cities has decreased by 17.9% year-on-year compared to 2025 [41]. - The report indicates that the price adjustments in lower-tier cities are more pronounced, aligning closer to residents' psychological expectations, which has led to increased subscriptions [42]. - The report notes a decline in the number of second-hand listings, particularly in key cities, due to factors such as the removal of ineffective listings by agents and homeowners withdrawing listings amid falling prices [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives aimed at stabilizing the market. The emphasis on "high-quality development" suggests a shift in policy that could lead to positive changes in the industry [3][4]. - The report notes that the current valuation levels for quality companies are historically low, making them attractive investment opportunities [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The transaction volume for new homes in first and second-tier cities decreased by 0.6%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw an increase of 17.7% [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week. Year-on-year, January transactions are down by 9.6% [4][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69, indicating a healthy demand relative to new listings. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [4][24]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights a series of government initiatives aimed at promoting urban renewal, with a focus on addressing key issues such as planning, funding, and operational challenges. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has indicated that there is significant potential for high-quality development in the real estate sector [3][31]. - Specific policies include Shanghai's "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes urban renewal as a key strategy for enhancing urban quality and development [3][31]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have reported their expected net profits for 2025, with notable figures including China Vanke's bond extension proposal and various financing activities from companies like China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [3][41].

Core Viewpoint - A significant number of companies in the A-share market have reported substantial losses, leading to a collective loss of 500 billion yuan, indicating a severe financial crisis within the industry [1][20]. Group 1: Company Losses - 65 companies disclosed their financial troubles, with major players like Red Star Macalline, Jindi Group, and Jianfa Holdings reporting massive losses of 225 billion, 135 billion, and 100 billion yuan respectively [4][10]. - The losses from these three companies alone could have been sufficient to acquire an entire medium-sized sector, highlighting the scale of the financial damage [5]. - The losses are attributed to asset impairment and the devaluation of previously overvalued properties, leading to a collapse in investor confidence [8][20]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market appears to be in a state of denial, with indices showing resilience while individual stocks suffer severe declines, indicating a disconnect between market perception and reality [3][10]. - The financial reports have led to a significant drop in stock prices, undermining the belief in "core assets" and revealing the fragility of the market [10][20]. Group 3: Financial Strategies - The phenomenon of "financial big washing" is observed, where companies are using accounting flexibility to report massive losses in one go, potentially to reset their financial baselines for future reporting [17][20]. - This strategy allows companies to clear hidden liabilities and prepare for a potential recovery, but it also risks eroding investor trust [20][21]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The current regulatory environment, including the new registration system, has increased the pressure on companies to maintain transparency and avoid continuous losses, which could lead to delisting [21][22]. - Companies are advised to focus on fundamental performance rather than speculative trading, as the market is becoming increasingly unforgiving towards those with deteriorating fundamentals [21].

克而瑞数据显示：2025年超七成房企净利润同比下滑，存货减值与结转压力，化作全行业共同的困局，即便是以往被视为"压舱石"的国央企， 它们或许步伐更稳，却也在这轮漫长的困局中感受到了切实的压力。 近日，建发股份（600153.SH）披露2025年业绩预告，其子公司联发集团因年内结算利润承压、存货跌价准备计提增加，将出现亏损。联发的 人事变动也引发业内关注——建发房产总经理林伟国拟升任建发房产董事长，并同步拟出任联发集团董事长，意味着建发集团旗下房地产板块 将由其统一执掌。事实上，年底多家房企不约而同地启动人事与组织变革，这既是应对当下市场压力的必要举措，也为企业的战略转型铺平道 路。 面对行业压力，联发正通过一系列策略调整应对周期考验，如投资聚焦一、二线高能级城市，优化存量资产结构以及聚焦特定客群进行产品定 位等等，勾勒出一条适应变化、寻求稳健发展的转型探索路径。 这种聚焦策略，在当前行业利润普遍承压的阶段，体现了一种"以短期阵痛换取长期健康"的战略和决心。它意味着联发主动收缩战线，将有限 的资源集中投入于更精准适配核心战略的区域，为"新青年"产品的开发和去化，构筑了坚实的客群基础，以稳健经营推动企业向高质量发 ...