2.子公司联发集团预计2025年度归母净利润为负值。联发集团地产项目2025年度结转收入规模同比下 降，叠加前期高地价项目集中结转的影响，整体结算利润为负；同时受行业波动及加大力度促销去化等 因素影响，联发集团计提的存货跌价准备预计将大幅增加，导致业绩进一步承压。 格隆汇1月16日丨建发股份(600153.SH)公布，公司财务部门初步测算，预计2025年度归属于母公司所有 者的净利润（以下简称"归母净利润"）为负值，主要系房地产业务子公司联发集团有限公司（以下简 称"联发集团"）年内结算利润为负、存货跌价准备计提增加，以及家居商场运营业务子公司红星美凯龙 家居集团股份有限公司（以下简称"美凯龙"）投资性房地产公允价值变动损失、各类减值准备计提增加 所致，供应链运营业务继续保持稳健盈利。具体情况如下： 1.公司供应链运营业务继续保持稳健盈利。2025年，公司大宗商品业务核心品类的经营总货量继续保持 增长；消费品业务与行业头部企业持续深化合作，业务规模稳步提升；公司销售目的地非中国大陆的海 外业务规模约140亿美元，同比增长约37%。 3.子公司美凯龙预计2025年度归母净利润为负值。由于房地产市场持续低迷导致家 ...

基于上述原因，根据初步测算，公司预计 2025 年度合并报表的归母净利润 将出现亏损。 经厦门建发股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）财务部门初步测算，预计 2025 年度归属于母公司所有者的净利润（以下简称"归母净利润"）为负值，主要系 房地产业务子公司联发集团有限公司（以下简称"联发集团"）年内结算利润为 负、存货跌价准备计提增加，以及家居商场运营业务子公司红星美凯龙家居集团 股份有限公司（以下简称"美凯龙"）投资性房地产公允价值变动损失、各类减 值准备计提增加所致，供应链运营业务继续保持稳健盈利。具体情况如下： 1.公司供应链运营业务继续保持稳健盈利。2025 年，公司大宗商品业务核 心品类的经营总货量继续保持增长；消费品业务与行业头部企业持续深化合作， 业务规模稳步提升；公司销售目的地非中国大陆的海外业务规模约 140 亿美元， 同比增长约 37%。 2.子公司联发集团预计 2025 年度归母净利润为负值。联发集团地产项目 2025 年度结转收入规模同比下降，叠加前期高地价项目集中结转的影响，整体 结算利润为负；同时受行业波动及加大力度促销去化等因素影响，联发集团计提 的存货跌价准备预计将大幅增加，导致业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a negative net profit attributable to the parent company for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to losses in its real estate subsidiary and increased impairment provisions [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The estimated net profit for 2025 is projected to be negative [1] - The negative profit is mainly attributed to the losses from the real estate subsidiary, Lianfa Group Co., Ltd. [1] - Increased provisions for inventory write-downs are also contributing to the negative outlook [1] Group 2: Business Segments - The home furnishing business segment, represented by Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Limited, is facing losses due to fair value changes in investment properties and increased impairment provisions [1] - The supply chain operation business continues to maintain stable profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a negative net profit attributable to shareholders for the fiscal year 2025 due to various operational challenges and losses in subsidiaries [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The supply chain operations remain profitably stable, while the bulk commodity business shows an increase in volume [1] - The consumer goods business has seen a scale-up, and overseas business revenue is approximately $14 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 37% [1] Group 2: Subsidiary Challenges - The subsidiary Lianfa Group is facing a decline in revenue from real estate project completions and an increase in inventory impairment provisions, contributing to the expected negative net profit [1] - Meikailong is experiencing losses due to changes in the fair value of investment properties and increased impairment provisions, which also impacts the overall net profit forecast for the company [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant reduction in the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30%, aimed at stimulating the commercial real estate market and facilitating inventory reduction [5][6] - The current inventory of commercial properties is high, with 141 million square meters of commercial space available for sale as of November 2025, including 52 million square meters of office space [6] - The report anticipates further policy easing to support the commercial real estate sector, as the current measures may have limited impact due to existing disadvantages in loan terms compared to residential mortgages [7][8] Summary by Sections Market Trends - The report indicates a downward trend in the commercial real estate market, with rising vacancy rates and declining rental prices [7] Policy Changes - The People's Bank of China has introduced measures to lower the down payment ratio for commercial property loans, which is expected to ease initial funding pressures for buyers [5][8] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery: China Resources Land, New World Development, Longfor Group [8] 2. Firms with strong credit profiles and good understanding of customer demand: Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, China Overseas Land & Investment [8] 3. High-quality property management companies under the "Good House, Good Service" policy: China Resources Mixc Lifestyle, Greentown Service, Poly Property [8]

Market Overview - On January 13, 2026, the equity market saw a majority of sectors decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Composite Index falling by 0.64% and 1.42% respectively. The CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices decreased by 0.60% and 1.28% respectively. The Shenwan Real Estate Index dropped by 1.67% [1] Individual Stock Performance - The top five gainers in the real estate sector were Daming City, Tibet Urban Investment, Rongfeng Holdings, Huali Family, and Nandu Property, with increases of 4.37%, 2.20%, 1.91%, 1.80%, and 1.79% respectively. Conversely, the largest decliners included Chengjian Development, Suzhou High-tech, Rongsheng Development, Hefei Urban Construction, and China Wuyi, with declines of -9.93%, -6.61%, -6.59%, -5.49%, and -5.46% respectively [2] Industry News - In Yinchuan, Ningxia, a dynamic adjustment mechanism for newly transferred commercial housing land has been implemented. The measures, effective from January 13, aim to promote stable and healthy development in the real estate market. They include linking residential land assessment prices to surrounding property sales prices, allowing installment payments for land transfer fees, and enhancing land use efficiency. Additional benefits for families with multiple children include increased public housing loan limits [3] - On January 13, three residential land parcels in Chengdu Tianfu New Area were successfully auctioned for a total of 9.27 billion yuan. The total land area was 55,000 square meters (approximately 82.55 acres), with a total planned construction area of 110,000 square meters. The Sichuan Urban Renewal Group won the auction at the starting price [4] Company Announcements - Xiamen C&D Inc. announced the issuance of its second short-term financing bond for 2026, amounting to 1 billion yuan with a term of 180 days. The bond will be used to supplement working capital for trade-related expenditures. The issuance date is set for January 14, 2026, with interest payments commencing on July 14, 2026 [5] - China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd. announced the interest payment arrangement for its first medium-term note of 2022, totaling 645 million yuan with an interest rate of 3.3%. The interest payment date is scheduled for January 26, 2026, with maturity on January 26, 2027 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The marathon symbolizes the victory of civilization and urban development, reflecting the sustainable future of cities and the importance of ecological coexistence in modern urban marathons [1][10]. Group 1: Marathon as a Symbol of Urban Civilization - The marathon originated from the historical victory of Athens, representing not just a race but a defense of independence and civilization [1]. - Modern marathons serve as a grand exhibition and stress test of urban civilization, emphasizing sustainability and ecological coexistence [1][10]. Group 2: Xiamen Marathon's Unique Features - The 2026 Xiamen Marathon, as the first World Athletics Platinum Label event of the year, showcases a beautiful running route that embodies the "City-Enterprise-Race" symbiosis [3][5]. - The marathon has evolved into a significant urban asset, enhancing city infrastructure and governance while promoting tourism and local culture [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Partnership and Economic Impact - The partnership between Jianfa Group and the Xiamen Marathon has lasted for 24 years, creating a unique brand that promotes sustainable urban growth [6][7]. - The economic benefits of the Xiamen Marathon reached 1.98 billion yuan in 2025, highlighting its role as a catalyst for urban branding and economic development [7]. Group 4: Comprehensive Urban System Testing - Marathons test a city's collaborative capabilities, public service efficiency, and emergency management, reflecting the overall health of urban civilization [10]. - Jianfa Group's involvement in the marathon exemplifies its commitment to sustainable development and community engagement across various sectors [10][12]. Group 5: Commitment to Sustainable Development - Jianfa Group prioritizes green and low-carbon development, integrating sustainability into its operational blueprint and supporting a resilient ecological system [12]. - The group's initiatives include clean energy investments and environmental restoration projects, contributing to a sustainable urban ecosystem [12]. Group 6: The Future of Marathon Cities - The Xiamen Marathon represents a continuous journey towards urban civilization, merging the spirit of the marathon with the city's development [15]. - The event not only celebrates athletic achievement but also embodies the long-term vision of a sustainable and thriving "Marathon City" [15].

Group 1: Real Estate Market Policies - Yinchuan has implemented eight measures to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, focusing on land security, planning, housing quality, policy support, supply guarantees, promotional incentives, rights protection, and market regulation [1] - The new policy includes a dynamic adjustment mechanism for newly sold residential land, allowing for staggered payment of land transfer fees, and increases in public housing loan limits for families with two or more children [1] Group 2: Land Auction Results - Chengdu held its first land auction of 2026, selling five plots of residential and commercial land with a total area of approximately 141 acres, with the total transaction price around 910 million yuan [2] - The auction reflects a trend of bottom-price transactions and state-owned enterprise leadership, indicating a stable land market during the current adjustment period [2] Group 3: Regulatory Actions - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has taken disciplinary actions against Xingyue Kanglv and China Aoyuan, citing violations of multiple listing rules and issues related to internal controls and benefit transfers [3] - The actions serve as a warning to the industry about the importance of improving corporate governance and compliance to navigate through market cycles [3] Group 4: Financial Forecasts - Huaxia Happiness has projected a net loss of 16 billion to 24 billion yuan for 2025, with potential negative equity by year-end, raising concerns about possible delisting from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [4] - The company needs to expedite its pre-restructuring process and debt restructuring to avoid severe consequences for stakeholders [4] Group 5: Financing Activities - Jianda Co. plans to issue 1 billion yuan in ultra-short-term financing bonds with a maturity of 180 days, aimed at supplementing operational funding for trade-related activities [5][6] - This move demonstrates the company's financial resilience and strategic determination amid the current challenges in the real estate sector and private enterprise financing [6]

Core Insights - The current stock of housing that meets the "good house" standard is less than 5%, with an annual demand for housing improvement projected to reach 700 million to 1 billion square meters, indicating a shift towards a "product certainty era" in the industry [1] - The real estate sector is transitioning from quantity expansion to quality enhancement, making product strength the core competitive advantage for companies in this new development phase [1] - The current housing prices are at a low point, while product standards have reached historical highs, presenting an optimal time for buying and upgrading homes, with expectations for the next five years to be the "year of products" in Chinese real estate [1] Industry Trends - According to the latest report by CRIC, leading real estate companies are excelling in product strength by focusing on safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence, as reflected in the "2025 China Real Estate Enterprise Product Strength TOP 100" rankings [2] - The rankings include traditional categories such as top enterprises and products, along with new categories like "Top 10 Good House Enterprises" and "Top 20 Good House Works," showcasing the industry's focus on quality [2] - Despite challenges such as market saturation and structural declines in purchasing power, the relationship between good products and sales is not direct, necessitating a deep integration of market analysis, customer insights, and product refinement to overcome these challenges [2] Product Development - CRIC's CEO highlighted the importance of selecting unique market opportunities, with projects like Shenzhen Bay and Shanghai Gao Fu achieving strong sales due to their prime locations [3] - Emphasizing product uniqueness and differentiation is crucial, as seen in projects like Zhengzhou Jinmao and Puyang Zhuyou, which have achieved competitive advantages through differentiated offerings [3] - The industry is expected to evolve by 2026 from a focus on individual product competition to a more integrated approach involving product, customer research, and operational strategies [3]

Market Overview - On January 8, the logistics sector rose by 0.1% compared to the previous trading day, with ST Xuefa leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4082.98, down 0.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13959.48, down 0.51% [1] Stock Performance - ST Xuefa (002485) closed at 4.41, up 5.00% with a trading volume of 56,500 shares and a turnover of 24.14 million yuan [1] - Longzhou Co., Ltd. (002682) closed at 8.36, up 4.11% with a trading volume of 1.2365 million shares and a turnover of 1.03 billion yuan [1] - Yuanda Holdings (000626) closed at 8.12, up 2.65% with a trading volume of 98,400 shares and a turnover of 7.91 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include *ST Yuanshang (603813) up 2.32% and *ST Haiqin (600753) up 1.83% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The logistics sector experienced a net outflow of 137 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 89.95 million yuan [2] - The main funds showed a significant net inflow in stocks like SF Holding (002352) with 67.10 million yuan, while Longzhou Co., Ltd. (002682) had a net inflow of 61.06 million yuan [3] - Conversely, stocks like Xiamen Xiangyu (600057) and Xiamen Guomao (600755) faced declines of 2.68% and 1.93% respectively, indicating a mixed sentiment in the sector [2]