Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The real estate market has shown a significant decline in sales, with a year-on-year decrease in sales area of 8.7% and sales amount down by 12.6% for the year 2025 [4][13] - The trend of "price for volume" is evident, with the average selling price of commercial housing dropping by 4.3% year-on-year [4][13] - New construction area has decreased for four consecutive years, with a decline of 20.4% in 2025 [5][20] - The total investment in real estate development has also seen a significant drop of 17.2% year-on-year [6][24] - The cash flow pressure on real estate companies remains high, with a 13.4% year-on-year decrease in funds available to developers [6][26] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 881 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 8.7% [4][13] - The sales amount reached 8.39 trillion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [4][13] - December 2025 saw a sharp decline in sales area and amount, with year-on-year decreases of 15.6% and 23.6%, respectively [4][13] Construction Data - The new construction area for 2025 was 588 million square meters, reflecting a 20.4% decrease [5][20] - The completion area was 603 million square meters, down 18.1% year-on-year [5][20] Investment Data - Real estate development investment totaled 8.28 trillion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 17.2% [6][24] - The funds available to real estate developers were 9.31 trillion yuan, down 13.4% year-on-year [6][26] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Resources Land [7][34] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery are also highlighted, such as Longfor Group and New City Holdings [7][34] - Quality property management firms with strong service standards are recommended, including China Resources Mixc Life and Greentown Service [7][34]

Core Viewpoint - Jianfa Co., Ltd. has officially released its supply chain operation business strategic plan for 2026-2030, aiming to become an internationally leading supply chain operator amidst global economic uncertainties [1] Strategic Goals - The company will focus on three strategic goals over the next five years: enhancing economic efficiency, improving market position, and expanding overseas scale [1] Core Competencies - Jianfa will strengthen five core competencies: specialization, internationalization, digital intelligence, foresight, and resource capability to lay a solid foundation for high-quality development [3] Specialized Operations - The company will continue to deepen its specialized operating model, strengthen core categories, and enhance the value of industry chain services through differentiated management [3] International Expansion - Jianfa aims to replicate its business model overseas, focusing on resource acquisition in regions like South America, Africa, and Central Asia, while also tapping into high-demand markets in developed countries [3] Digital Intelligence - The company plans to upgrade its operations through digital intelligence, utilizing user demand and technological innovation to create a comprehensive digital platform for decision-making and risk management [3] Foresight and Resource Optimization - Jianfa will enhance its strategic planning and industry research capabilities, optimizing resource allocation and integrating key logistics and industry resources to improve supply chain security and stability [5] Innovation and Growth - The company will cultivate a second growth curve by leveraging its existing resources and exploring new segments such as "new consumption" and "artificial intelligence," aiming for long-term growth [6] Key Development Phase - The next five years are critical for Jianfa as it transitions from being "domestically excellent" to "internationally leading," focusing on professional operations, international expansion, and innovation-driven growth [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous improvement in the real estate sector, driven by favorable policies and a strengthening of the second-hand housing market [1] - The overall industry rating remains at "Buy," consistent with previous assessments [2] Group 1: Policy Developments - Central government policies are increasingly supportive, with the Ministry of Finance announcing an extension of the tax exemption policy for second-hand housing transactions until the end of 2027 [5][14] - The People's Bank of China has introduced measures including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates and a decrease in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [5][15] - The publication of multiple articles in "Qiushi" magazine indicates a heightened focus on real estate and urban development, suggesting a strong policy commitment [5][17] Group 2: Market Performance - The second-hand housing market has shown significant improvement, with a 40.3% year-on-year increase in transactions for the first 15 days of January, despite a 10% decline compared to the previous week [5][23] - New housing transactions remain low, with a 29.7% year-on-year decrease in sales volume, although there was a 9.9% week-on-week increase [5][23][26] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes in 33 cities increased by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a stabilization in prices [5][25] Group 3: Land Market Dynamics - The total land transfer revenue remains low, with a 25.2% week-on-week decline and a 54.3% year-on-year decrease, reflecting weak market conditions [5][24] - There are localized instances of structural premiums in third and fourth-tier cities, suggesting potential opportunities despite overall market weakness [5][24] Group 4: Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - Key companies in the real estate sector, such as Vanke A and China Overseas Development, maintain a "Buy" rating with reasonable valuations projected for 2025 and 2026 [6] - The report includes detailed financial metrics for various companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, which suggest potential for growth in the sector [6][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing government support for the real estate sector through tax policies aimed at reducing transaction costs and promoting housing demand, particularly for first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade [10][11] - The real estate market is currently experiencing a significant decline in new home sales, with a year-on-year decrease of 38.1% in new home transactions across 30 cities [2][23] - The report emphasizes that the current policies are extensions of previous measures and suggests that more substantial policy interventions may be necessary to stimulate the market [11] Summary by Sections Policy Review - The government has extended the personal income tax refund policy for residents purchasing new homes after selling their existing properties, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [10] - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been reduced to 30% to support the commercial real estate market [11] Market Performance - The real estate index decreased by 3.5% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.95 percentage points, ranking 30th among 31 sectors [2][12] - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 119.1 million square meters this week, reflecting a 2.4% increase from the previous week but a 38.1% decrease year-on-year [23][25] - In the secondary housing market, transactions in 15 cities totaled 205.8 million square meters, showing a 3.8% increase week-on-week but a 7.6% decline year-on-year [31] Credit Market - A total of 14 corporate bonds were issued by real estate companies this week, with a total issuance of 12.11 billion yuan, marking a 54.8% increase from the previous week [3][40] - The net financing amount for the week was -2.7 billion yuan, indicating a decrease in net financing compared to the previous week [40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks, particularly those of leading state-owned enterprises and quality private firms, as they are expected to benefit from the improving competitive landscape [3] - Recommended stocks include Green Town China, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments among others [3]

近日，许多企业仍在为过去一年的跌宕而复盘时，厦门建发集团有限公司（下称"厦门建发集团"）及其 核心上市平台建发股份（600153.SH），却以一系列令人瞩目的战略合作，为2026年定下了坚实基调。 从全球动力电池龙头宁德时代，到海南资源巨擘海垦集团，再到国家级政策性银行中国进出口银行，短 短月余，厦门建发集团高层签约的行程密集如梭。建发股份的核心引擎供应链运营业务，正挣脱传统模 式的桎梏，发动一场深刻的"升维"之战。 以"金融"为盾，保障业务扩张的底气与安全 厦门建发集团及建发股份近期与金融体系的互动，为公司自身供应链运营业务的稳定发展奠定了坚实基 础。 2025年12月19日，交通银行行长张宝江到访厦门建发集团。张宝江行长明确表示，将围绕建发核心领 域，以做好科技金融、绿色金融等"五篇大文章"进行精准赋能，助力厦门建发集团优化产业布局，为厦 门建发集团战略落地与业务升级注入金融动能。这一定位极具前瞻性，它意味着银行资金不再仅是传统 的流动资金贷款，而是将成为孵化新产业、支持绿色转型的"战略燃料"。 紧随其后，2026年1月13日，厦门建发集团又与中国进出口银行签署的《战略合作协议》。进出口银行 作为支持对外 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiamen C&D Inc. (referred to as "C&D") announced a positive performance outlook for 2025, highlighting robust profitability in its supply chain operations and accelerated growth in international business [1] Group 1: Business Performance - C&D's supply chain operations are expected to maintain steady profitability in 2025 [1] - The scale of C&D's overseas business, excluding mainland China, is projected to reach approximately $14 billion (nearly 100 billion RMB) in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 37% [1] - The year-on-year growth rate is expected to continue to improve on a quarterly basis [1]

Key Points - China Metallurgical Group Corporation (China MCC) expects a decline of over 50% in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025 due to losses in the real estate sector and increased asset impairment provisions [1] - JAC Motors anticipates a net loss of approximately 1.68 billion yuan in 2025, although this represents a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [2] - Northern Rare Earth forecasts a net profit increase of 116.67% to 134.60% in 2025, driven by improved sales and production efficiency in rare earth products [3] - Shenghong Technology projects a net profit increase of 260.35% to 295% in 2025, attributed to the growing demand for AI infrastructure and high-end products [4] - Lanke Technology expects a net profit increase of 52.29% to 66.46% in 2025, benefiting from strong demand in the AI industry [7] - Aiwai Electronics anticipates a net profit increase of 17.70% to 29.47% in 2025, focusing on high-value chip solutions [25] - Longxin General expects a net profit increase of 47.15% to 60.53% in 2025, driven by steady growth in its core motorcycle and general machinery businesses [28] - China One Heavy Industry predicts a net loss of 310 million to 460 million yuan in 2025, although this represents a significant reduction from the previous year's loss [35] - Kunda Technology expects a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.5 billion yuan in 2025, impacted by industry supply-demand imbalances [34] - Daqing Energy anticipates a net loss of 1 billion to 1.3 billion yuan in 2025, although this reflects a narrowing of losses compared to the previous year [42]

Core Viewpoint - Company Jianfa Co. is expected to report its first loss since its listing, with a projected negative net profit attributable to shareholders for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to losses in its real estate business and increased impairment provisions [5][7]. Group 1: Supply Chain Operations - The company's supply chain operations continue to maintain steady profitability, with core commodity business volume showing growth. The overseas business, excluding mainland China, reached approximately $14 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 37% [6]. Group 2: Real Estate Subsidiary Performance - Subsidiary Lianfa Group is expected to report a negative net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, as revenue from real estate projects is projected to decline year-on-year. This is compounded by the impact of high land prices from previous projects and increased inventory impairment provisions due to market fluctuations and aggressive promotions [6]. - Subsidiary Meikailong is also expected to report a negative net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025. The ongoing downturn in the real estate market has weakened demand in the home retail sector, leading to a significant decline in rental income and a reassessment of future rental yields, resulting in a substantial decrease in the fair value of investment properties [6].

1.公司供应链运营业务继续保持稳健盈利。2025年，公司大宗商品业务核心品类的经营总货量继续保持 增长；消费品业务与行业头部企业持续深化合作，业务规模稳步提升；公司销售目的地非中国大陆的海 外业务规模约140亿美元，同比增长约37%。 格隆汇1月16日丨建发股份(600153.SH)公布，公司财务部门初步测算，预计2025年度归属于母公司所有 者的净利润（以下简称"归母净利润"）为负值，主要系房地产业务子公司联发集团有限公司（以下简 称"联发集团"）年内结算利润为负、存货跌价准备计提增加，以及家居商场运营业务子公司红星美凯龙 家居集团股份有限公司（以下简称"美凯龙"）投资性房地产公允价值变动损失、各类减值准备计提增加 所致，供应链运营业务继续保持稳健盈利。具体情况如下： 3.子公司美凯龙预计2025年度归母净利润为负值。由于房地产市场持续低迷导致家居零售市场需求减 弱，近两年美凯龙租赁及管理收入持续低位震荡徘徊，租金水平较以往年度已出现较为显著的下滑，市 场情绪和租金预期发生了转变，因此美凯龙对未来租金的收益情况进行了预期调整，致使投资性房地产 价值大幅下降。同时，美凯龙根据各项资产最新可回收情况，对各类资产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a negative net profit attributable to the parent company for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to losses in its real estate subsidiary and increased impairment provisions [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The estimated net profit for 2025 is projected to be negative [1] - The negative profit is mainly attributed to the loss from the real estate subsidiary, Lianfa Group Co., Ltd. [1] - Increased provisions for inventory impairment are also contributing to the negative profit outlook [1] Group 2: Subsidiary Performance - The real estate subsidiary, Lianfa Group Co., Ltd., is expected to report a loss in profit recognition for the year [1] - The home furnishing mall subsidiary, Red Star Macalline Group Co., Ltd., is facing losses due to fair value changes in investment properties and increased impairment provisions [1] - The supply chain operation business continues to maintain stable profitability [1]