证 券 研 究 报 告 春节旅游跟踪报告 超长假期+政策助力催生全面景气，酒店涨价 推荐（维持） 幅度超预期 ❑ 风险提示：宏观经济波动；高频数据更新不及时；政策落地不及预期。 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 锦江酒店 | 600754.SH | 28.28 | 0.85 | 1.09 | 1.21 | 33.14 | 25.97 | 23.34 | 1.98 | 推荐 | | 首旅酒店 | 600258.SH | 17.46 | 0.80 | 0.88 | 0.96 | 21.93 | 19.89 | 18.19 | 1.67 | 推荐 | | 古茗 | 01364.HK | 28.48 | 1.05 | 1.10 | 1. ...

3 月金股报告 ——指数震荡，风格再平衡 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 02 月 27 日 分析师：王永健 执业证书编号：S0740522050001 （2）国内政策流动性宽松，筑牢市场底部。2 月 25 日央行开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作 并净投放 3000 亿元，连续第 12 个月加量续作，确保春节前后的流动性合理充裕；人 民币汇率持续走强稳定了跨境资金流动预期。 科技大类中，高端制造领涨；周期品中，建材钢铁走强。 （1）科技类资产内部，中游高端制造领涨。国防军工、机械设备、电力设备等中游 高端制造表现突出。其中，地缘政治动荡推动国防军工的走强，产业突破亦为其注入 了新的增长动力；海外制造业回暖、国内设备更新周期为机械设备提供支撑；电力设 备受益于 AI 产业海外缺电叙事与两会前的产业政策预期。 （2）周期大类中，建筑材料、钢铁、煤炭占优，有色金属回调。建筑材料中以玻璃 纤维主题领涨，主要受益于供给端优化、AI 算力和新能源需求预期的外溢。此外，在 地产政策托底预期与高股息属性共振下，钢铁与煤炭板块亦有突出表现。相反，受美 联储降息预期反复、海外地缘扰动与商品震荡走势传导，前期涨幅过大的 ...

Group 1: Key Insights - The report highlights the strong growth potential of the semiconductor industry, particularly driven by the demand for high-speed optical chips due to the ongoing upgrades in overseas computing power, catalyzed by events like the NVIDIA GTC conference [4] - The report emphasizes the transition of the defense industry towards intelligent and information-based munitions, with the company being a key player in the production of solid rocket engines, which positions it well for future growth [4] - The real estate sector is currently in an adjustment phase, with expectations of increased industry concentration and a shift from scale to quality, benefiting leading companies like the one analyzed [5] - The automotive sector is seeing advancements in intelligent driving solutions, with the company positioned as a core supplier for L3 autonomous driving technology, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5] - The chemical industry is experiencing a tightening supply of refrigerants, with the company expected to benefit significantly from this trend, as well as from its leadership in fluoropolymer materials [6] - The agricultural sector is projected to see stable growth despite recent price declines, with the company actively increasing its arable land and benefiting from rising grain prices [7] - The logistics sector is expanding its capacity through new shipbuilding initiatives, with a strong dividend policy and low valuation enhancing its attractiveness [8] - The machinery sector is recovering, with significant growth in excavator sales, positioning the company to capitalize on the industry's resurgence [8] - The hotel industry is entering a phase of accelerated expansion, with a focus on quality and quantity in new openings, indicating a positive outlook for the company [9]

Core Insights - The tourism market during the 2026 Spring Festival is expected to maintain high prosperity, characterized by simultaneous increases in volume and price, along with structural optimization [2][8] - AI technology is increasingly integrated into the entire tourism process, enhancing consumer convenience and experience [3][8] - The cross-border travel market is experiencing significant growth in both outbound and inbound tourism, with a diversified destination structure [5][6] Group 1: Travel Market Trends - The total inter-regional movement of people during the 2026 Spring Festival is anticipated to reach a new high, with growth in passenger flow across civil aviation, railways, and water transport [2] - The hotel market is witnessing both volume and price increases, with hotel night bookings on the Fliggy platform rising by 75% year-on-year during the Spring Festival [2] - Popular tourist cities are seeing significant price increases for hotel accommodations, driven by a segmented travel pattern of "first reunion, then vacation" [2] Group 2: Domestic Tourism - The domestic tourism market is thriving, with Fliggy reporting record-high order volumes and a 10% year-on-year increase in average booking amounts [3] - Traditional and niche destinations are both gaining popularity, reflecting a trend towards diversified experiences in domestic travel [3] - Key scenic spots, such as Zhangjiajie and Qi Yun Mountain, have reported substantial revenue growth during the holiday period, with some locations achieving record highs [3] Group 3: Cross-Border Tourism - The cross-border travel market is experiencing robust growth, with Southeast Asia as a core destination and significant increases in long-haul travel [5] - Outbound travel is dominated by family groups, with popular destinations including Bangkok and Hong Kong, while inbound tourism benefits from visa-free policies and cultural appeal [5][6] - Inbound tourism is showing strong consumer spending, with cities like Beijing and Shanghai leading in visitor numbers and economic contributions [6] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The tourism sector is expected to benefit from extended holidays, visa-free policies, and rising consumer sentiment, with a favorable outlook for service-oriented consumption [8] - Recommended investment targets include hotel chains such as Jin Jiang Hotels and ShouLai Hotels, as well as online travel agencies like Trip.com and Tongcheng Travel [8]

春节消费高景气，关注性价比、情绪价值和体验 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 2026 年春节消费调研观察 春节线下零售和服务消费高景气，下沉市场客流更旺盛、线下消费更火热。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 社会服务业《史上最长春节假期，文旅板块景气 度高》2026.02.23 社会服务业《千问加码外卖补贴，行业价格战趋 缓》2026.02.09 社会服务业《乐购新春方案出台，关注春节消费 表现》2026.02.08 社会服务业《政策推动、供求双旺，景区板块迎 黄金投资期》2026.02.07 社会服务业《政策支持服务消费发展，关注春节 数据》2026.02.01 票 研 究 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | 本报告导读 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the cultural tourism infrastructure and operations industry as stable for 2025 and 2026, indicating a positive outlook for growth and development in the sector [1]. Core Insights - Since 2025, the domestic tourism market has transitioned from recovery to a healthy development phase, with high consumer willingness to travel, primarily focusing on local and nearby tourism, leading to increasingly rigid consumption demands [1][15]. - The international tourism market is entering a high-quality growth phase driven by policy releases and payment facilitation, with expectations for inbound tourism to become a new growth point for the industry [5][18]. - The industry is experiencing a transformation towards quality and immersive experiences, particularly in traditional scenic areas, which are facing capacity constraints and intensified competition [1][42]. - The hotel industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with ongoing brand and chain development, but still facing pressure from soft growth in room prices and rising operational costs [1][2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The cultural tourism infrastructure and operations industry aims to meet public cultural and tourism demands, encompassing the development and provision of related material facilities and services [7]. - The industry is characterized by a deep integration of cultural and tourism resources, focusing on comprehensive services for tourists, including travel, accommodation, dining, and entertainment [7][8]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the tourism industry is a strategic pillar of the national economy, contributing over 10% to the national economic growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [10]. - The domestic tourism market is expected to continue supporting economic and social development, with a projected increase in domestic travel demand due to favorable policies and extended holiday periods [5][15]. Financial Performance - Revenue growth in the industry has slowed since 2025, but the operational resilience is expected to persist due to policy support and fundamental supply-demand dynamics [2][4]. - The financial structure of the industry shows a high reliance on debt financing, with a notable increase in overall debt levels and a rising proportion of rigid debt [4][36]. Future Outlook - For 2026, the report anticipates that policy dividends and new holiday regulations will further stimulate tourism consumption demand, with a steady development trend expected in the industry [5][16]. - The integration of AI and data processing technologies is expected to enhance tourism services, leading to a more refined transformation in the sector [5][30]. Sub-industry Analysis - The leisure facilities and cultural tourism infrastructure sector is characterized by high capital barriers and varying profitability across sub-sectors, with leisure facilities maintaining strong profitability due to resource scarcity [9][36]. - The report notes that the competitive landscape is dominated by state-owned enterprises, particularly in economically developed eastern regions, which exhibit significant scale advantages [2][4].

2026 年 2 月 24 日 行业研究 春节假期旅游需求旺盛，呈量价齐升、结构优化特点 ——春节假期旅游市场点评 要点 春节假期旅游市场延续高景气度，呈现 "量价齐升、结构优化"特征：2026 年春节假期，全社会跨区域人员流动量有望创新高，民航、铁路、水运等交通方 式客流均实现同比增长，其中水运受游轮观光、海南封关等因素拉动表现尤为亮 眼。酒店市场量价双增，从酒店交易规模来看，飞猪平台春节假期酒店间夜量同 比增长 75%，且高星级酒店人均预订间夜量接近 3 晚，呈现一定的消费升级趋 势，部分热门旅游城市酒店价格涨幅显著；受"先团圆、后度假"的分段式出行 影响，一定程度上推动春运机票价格同比上涨，热门航线供需格局较紧张。 国内游传统与小众目的地热度均上升，AI 推动消费场景串联：1）2026 年春节 国内游市场持续火爆，飞猪平台国内游订单量创历史新高，人均预订金额同比提 升约 10%。2）游客既追求传统旅游目的地的经典体验，亦青睐小众目的地的特 色玩法，国内游呈体验多元化趋势。传统景区方面，祥源文旅旗下核心景区表现 亮眼，春节假期前四天累计接待游客 26.45 万人，同比增长 20%，其中湖南张 家界黄龙洞、 ...

Group 1 - The "Shoulv Travel · Xiangyue Shiguang" food truck market officially launched at the foot of the Mutianyu Great Wall on February 17, coinciding with the Lunar New Year [1] - The event features traditional delicacies from well-known brands like Donglaishun and Quanjude, blending traditional craftsmanship with modern flavors, attracting both locals and tourists [3] - The food truck market will run until March 3, covering the entire Spring Festival holiday, and aims to provide an immersive cultural tourism experience by integrating food, culture, and local customs [5] Group 2 - The initiative emphasizes the integration of agriculture, culture, and tourism, focusing on three core areas: Great Wall culture, suburban folk customs, and the craftsmanship of time-honored brands [5] - The company plans to continue leveraging its resource integration and innovative model to create more culturally rich and market-viable tourism projects that resonate with the public [5]

Group 1 - The event "2026 Spring Festival Carnival" in Taihu Park, Tongzhou District, Beijing, features an immersive theater experience and interactive games to attract visitors and create a festive atmosphere [1] - The park has been transformed into a "boundaryless theater," allowing visitors to engage in various activities and win "silver tickets" that serve as emotional connections among participants [1] - The event highlights community involvement by distributing free tickets to local families, encouraging them to participate in the activities [1] Group 2 - The event showcases traditional cultural elements, such as the non-material cultural heritage fish lanterns, which captivated both residents and tourists [2] - Local delicacies, like the soft and fragrant "Rong Tofu," were introduced by community leaders to enhance the festive experience and promote local cuisine [2] - The immersive performance design aligns with the development goals of Taihu Performing Arts Town, which aims to create a high-quality cultural experience and attract more visitors to the area [2]

Core Viewpoint - Pacific Securities report indicates that Shoulu Hotel is investing in new hotel construction to promote asset expansion, focusing on the mid-to-high-end hotel sector and core urban clusters, reflecting the company's strategic implementation of optimizing development models [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company is advancing its asset expansion through two announcements that utilize "newly built sedimentary assets" and "leasing for rapid implementation" models [1] - This strategy covers the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic zones, demonstrating the company's commitment to seizing industry recovery opportunities and accelerating brand upgrades [1] Group 2: Regional Layout - Both projects are located in high-potential core areas, accurately capturing regional development dividends [1] - The projects create a north-south layout that aligns with the domestic hotel industry's trend of focusing on core regions, laying a solid foundation for the company's long-term performance growth [1] Group 3: Development Model - The dual model of "new construction + leasing" complements each other, balancing long-term asset accumulation with short-term benefit realization [1] - After two years of pressure, the hotel sector is showing signs of a RevPAR turning point, with expectations for operating data to achieve year-on-year growth by 2026 and profitability to improve [1]