Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on February 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up while the ChiNext Index declined, and the electric grid equipment sector experienced a brief surge before retreating [1] - The only ETF tracking the CSI Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, the electric grid equipment ETF (159326), fell by 0.61% with a trading volume of 558 million yuan, while stocks like Hangzhou Electric and Hongsheng Huayuan hit the daily limit [1] - According to the General Administration of Customs, key power equipment exports are projected to reach 71.5 billion USD from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20%, with transformers, winding wires, insulators, and switchgear showing significant growth rates of 35%, 24%, 45%, and 29% respectively [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities anticipates a potential acceleration in electric grid investment, with overseas supply unable to meet demand, leading to extended delivery times for power transformers and high-voltage cables in Europe and the U.S., which could extend into the 2030s [1] - The company believes that Chinese electric equipment manufacturers are entering a golden development period for overseas exports, with expectations for continued growth in both volume and price in 2026 [1] - According to Chengtong Securities, there is a pressing need for the replacement of aging electric grid equipment in developed economies, where over 20% of equipment has exceeded its 20-year lifespan, benefiting domestic electric grid companies amid increasing investment growth [1] Group 3 - The electric grid equipment ETF (159326) is the only ETF in the market tracking the CSI Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, with a strong representation in sectors such as power transmission and transformation equipment, grid automation equipment, cable components, and distribution equipment [2] - The ETF includes leading companies in overseas markets such as Tebian Electric, China XD Electric, and Baobian Electric, showcasing its comprehensive industry coverage [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective rebound on February 3, with the only electric grid equipment ETF (159326) rising by 3.38% and achieving a trading volume of 1.514 billion yuan, driven by news catalysts [1] - The global AI computing power construction is entering an explosive phase, with high-power and stable power supply becoming essential for computing clusters, leading to an upgrade of power transformers as core infrastructure [1] - In regions like Guangdong and Jiangsu, many transformer factories are operating at full capacity, with some orders for data center-related businesses scheduled as far out as 2027 [1] Group 2 - The electric grid equipment ETF (159326) tracks the CSI Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, with a strong representation in sectors such as transmission and transformation equipment, grid automation equipment, and distribution equipment [2] - The smart grid sector holds a significant weight of 88% in the index, while ultra-high voltage equipment accounts for 65%, both being the highest in the market [2] - Leading companies in the export market include TBEA, China XD Electric, and others, indicating a strong presence in the international market [2]

中国电网投资在过去一年创下历史新高，并有望在未来几年持续稳步增长。 2月2日，中国电力企业联合会官方发布的《2025-2026年度全国电力供需形势分析预测报告》显示， 2025年，全国电网工程建设完成投资6395亿元，同比增长5.1%。 中国电力企业联合会统计与数智部主任侯文捷表示， "近年来，风光大基地建设推动特高压直流输电通道工程投资快速增长，2025年直流工程投 资同比增长25.7%；交流工程投资同比增长4.7%。" 据新华社报道，从电力供应端看，2026年太阳能发电装机规模将首次超过煤电装机规模，年底风电和太 阳能发电合计装机规模将达到总发电装机的一半。 近年来，我国在大数据、云计算、人工智能、5G网络、工业互联网等新兴基础设施建设领域取得了显 著进展，极大促进了相关行业用电量增长。以互联网数据服务用电量为例，2021年至2025年年均增长 35.9%。 特高压与配电网双轮驱动 而此次大规模投资的核心目标之一是中国特高压（UHV）电网的扩建。 作为"西电东送"战略的重要组成部分，该计划旨在通过特高压线路将西部丰富的能源输送至东部负荷中 心。预计到2030年，特高压电网将连接超过420吉瓦的电力容量。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The transformer manufacturing sector in China is experiencing a surge in demand, with factories in Guangdong and Jiangsu operating at full capacity, and some orders for data center projects extending to 2027 [1] - The delivery cycle for the U.S. market has increased from 50 weeks to 127 weeks, indicating a significant backlog in supply [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The demand side is exceeding expectations due to the initiation of new energy construction and grid upgrades since 2023, alongside an anticipated AI boom in 2025 that is accelerating data center development [1] - On the supply side, there is a rigid production capacity, and delays in expansion plans from overseas manufacturers are contributing to a high dependency on electric transformers [1] - The industry has faced long periods of low profit margins prior to 2023, leading to a reduction in production capacity and a loss of skilled labor [1] - Major companies like Siemens Energy and Hyundai Electric are experiencing delays in capacity expansion due to postponed training for technical personnel [1] Additional Important Points - China's transformer production capacity accounts for 60% of the global market, with delivery cycles being less than one-fifth of that of European and American companies, which aligns with the urgent need for AI computing power and data center construction [2] - A review of current expansion plans from overseas manufacturers indicates that by 2030, there will still be a 10% shortage of electric transformers in Europe and the U.S., suggesting continued benefits for domestic companies from overseas orders [2] Investment Recommendations - Suggested investments include high-voltage equipment exports and components from companies such as Siyi Electric, TBEA, and Huaming Equipment [2] - Domestic investment opportunities are identified in companies like Pinggao Electric, China West Electric, XJ Electric, and Guodian NARI [2]

证券代码：600406 证券简称：国电南瑞 公告编号：临2026-005 2025 年 4 月 7 日，国电南瑞科技股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）时任董 事长山社武先生向公司董事会提议回购公司股份。2025 年 4 月 14 日，公司召开第 九届董事会第三次会议审议通过《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司 A 股股份的 议案》，同意公司使用自有资金以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份，本次回购的 股份用于未来实施股权激励计划。回购资金总额不低于人民币 5 亿元（含本数）， 不超过人民币 10 亿元（含本数），回购价格不超过人民币 34.13 元/股(含本数)， 回购期限自公司董事会审议通过本次股份回购方案之日起不超过 12 个月，即从 2025 年 4 月 14 日至 2026 年 4 月 13 日。因公司实施 2024 年年度权益分派及 2025 年半年度权益分派，回购价格上限由不超过人民币 34.13 元/股（含本数）调整为 不超过人民币 33.55 元/股（含本数）。具体内容详见公司于 2025 年 4 月 8 日、4 月 15 日、6 月 23 日、9 月 24 日在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com ...

二月交易日刚开启，大A就跌懵了，主要指数均跌超2%。 今日特高压板块逆势上涨，电网设备ETF(159326)放量上涨1.33%，年初至今累计上涨近18%。 板块轮动，开始了吗？ 01 订单排到两年后 周末消息非常多。 首先，也是关注度最高的，即国际黄金和白银价格遭遇史诗级暴跌，均创下数十年最大单日跌幅。 | | | 金属期货表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅(结)1 | | -13 | aq2604 | 沪银2604 | 24832 | -17.00% | | 2 | pd2606 | #2606 | 413.70 | -16.00% | | ਤੇ | pt2606 | 铝2606 | 552.15 | -16.00% | | র্ব | au2604 | 沪金2604 | 1008.60 | -15.73% | | રે | Ic2605 | 英语:2605 | 132440 | -13.99% | | 6 | ni2603 | 沪煌2603 | 129650 | -11.00% | | 7 | sn2603 | 沪铝 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report highlights that the recent volatility in gold and silver prices is primarily driven by market momentum reversals, with silver attracting high leverage and speculative funds since November 2025 [2][5] - The report anticipates that after the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, there will be more interest rate cuts than the market expects, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields likely to decline [2][4] - The report notes that the recent decline in the manufacturing PMI does not indicate a weakening economy, as it reflects a temporary fluctuation rather than a downward trend [10] Group 2: Commodity Market Analysis - The report indicates that the recent crash in silver prices has led to liquidity risks that may spread to other commodities, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector [5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support levels for gold prices, particularly the 60-day moving average, which is currently at $4,400 per ounce [5] - The report suggests that the Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to manage the risk of a one-sided market in silver futures [5] Group 3: Equity Market Outlook - The report predicts a rebound in the A-share market following the Spring Festival, driven by positive sentiment from performance forecasts and new developments in sectors like AI applications and commercial aerospace [6][10] - It advises a balanced ETF allocation in domestic equities, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the market [11] Group 4: Bond Market Perspective - The report notes that the bond market is expected to see increased buying activity due to risk aversion and expectations of monetary easing, with 10-year yields projected to decline to around 1.80% [7][10] - It highlights that the recent adjustments in risk appetite have created trading opportunities in government bonds as a hedge against stock market volatility [4][7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **grid and electrical equipment** sector, particularly in the context of global investment trends and structural demand drivers across regions including **China, ASEAN, the US, and the EU** [2][3][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Structural Upcycle**: Analysts believe the current upcycle in grid equipment is structural rather than cyclical, supported by high manufacturing utilization and multi-year order visibility across **APAC** [3][10]. - **Investment Needs**: Global grid investment reached approximately **$450 billion** in 2025, but this is still below the estimated **$1 trillion** needed annually by 2050 to meet demand [4]. - **Aging Infrastructure**: About **45%** of global grid assets are over **20 years old**, with significant replacement needs emerging, particularly in the US where the average transformer is around **40 years old** [4][10]. - **OEM Backlogs**: Equipment suppliers are experiencing unprecedented demand, with average selling prices for transformers increasing by approximately **75%** since 2019, and high-voltage cable costs nearly doubling [5][10]. Regional Developments - **China**: The 15th Five-Year Plan mandates a record investment of **RMB 4 trillion** by 2030, a **40%** increase from previous plans, focusing on high-voltage expansion to support renewable energy [7]. - **ASEAN**: Leaders have agreed to accelerate the ASEAN Power Grid, aiming to double cross-border capacity by 2040, supported by an **$800 billion** financing initiative [7]. - **US**: Federal programs, including a **$65 billion** grid modernization fund, are pushing utilities to enhance and expand networks [7]. - **Europe**: The European Commission has introduced a new Grid Package requiring **€584 billion** in transmission investment by 2030 [7]. Capacity and Constraints - Manufacturing capacity for grid equipment is tight across APAC, with Japan operating at nearly **100%** utilization. Expansion plans are in place, but skilled labor shortages and input constraints remain significant challenges [12]. - Orderbooks are strong, particularly in Korea, where companies report **30%** year-over-year growth in orderbooks, with lead times extending to **3-4 years** [13]. Pricing Dynamics - Anticipated price increases in China due to potential tariff adjustments in the 2026 regulatory cycle are expected to support average selling price hikes and margin expansion [14]. - Japan's Hitachi aims to increase EBITDA margins from **13-15%** to **16-20%** by FY30, indicating a focus on disciplined pricing and higher-value products [14]. Demand Drivers - Demand is driven by a multi-year structural grid upgrade cycle across APAC, with significant needs for replacement and modernization of aging infrastructure, as well as the integration of digital automation and smart grid technologies [15][16]. Investment Recommendations - Companies positioned at the core of structural grid equipment demands, such as **NARI Technology**, **Hitachi**, and **Hyundai Electric**, are highlighted as key beneficiaries of the ongoing investment cycle [18][19]. - NARI Technology is particularly noted for its alignment with China's domestic grid investment priorities, with expectations of sustained pricing uplift and market share gains [18]. Conclusion - The combination of aging infrastructure, rising demand from renewable energy, and the need for modernization and digitalization in grid systems suggests a robust growth outlook for the grid equipment sector across APAC, with favorable pricing power and earnings durability anticipated [10][11].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on China's power grid equipment sector, with a bullish outlook on grid capital expenditure (CAPEX) growth, projected at an 11% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for 2026-2030, up from a previous estimate of 9% [2][10][13]. Core Insights and Arguments - **CAPEX Growth Drivers**: - The State Grid's Rmb4 trillion investment plan under the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) indicates a 7% CAPEX CAGR [3][15]. - Historical data shows that actual grid investments during previous FYPs exceeded initial targets by 2-18%, suggesting potential for similar outcomes in the future [3][15]. - Structural factors such as electrification, energy security, and the integration of renewables are increasing the urgency for grid reinforcement [7][20]. - **Pricing Upside**: - Anticipated increases in transmission and distribution (T&D) tariffs starting in 2026 could enhance grid economics, with each Rmb0.01/kWh increase potentially generating Rmb634 billion in pre-tax profit over the 2026-2030 period, equating to 14% of total grid CAPEX during the 15th FYP [3][20]. - **Earnings Revisions**: - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised from -31% to +18%, reflecting stronger volume outlooks and improved pricing [4][32]. - NARI Technology is highlighted as a top pick, with expected earnings growth of 22% CAGR, driven by its alignment with State Grid's CAPEX growth [4][32]. Key Companies and Their Performance - **NARI Technology (600406.SS)**: - Price target raised from Rmb28.00 to Rmb42.00, with EPS revisions indicating a 7-16% increase for 2026-2027 [32][35]. - The smart grid and energy digitalization segments are expected to drive revenue growth [33]. - **Ningbo Sanxing Medical Electric (601567.SS)**: - Price target increased from Rmb30.00 to Rmb39.10, but EPS forecasts were trimmed by 25% due to weaker revenue and margins [41][44]. - The power equipment segment is expected to recover with a projected 20% YoY increase in average selling prices (ASP) in 2026 [44]. - **Willfar Information Technology (688100.SS)**: - Price target raised from Rmb45.00 to Rmb64.00, with EPS revisions up by 4% for 2026 and 11% for 2027, driven by grid investment acceleration [48]. Valuation Insights - Key power grid equipment stocks are trading at an average forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23x, below the historical average of 24x and the peak of 40x [2][28]. - Domestic-focused stocks have underperformed export-driven peers by 191 percentage points since January 2025, indicating potential for re-rating as domestic CAPEX growth becomes more apparent [7][28]. Additional Important Points - The market currently underestimates the potential for domestic grid CAPEX growth, which could lead to significant earnings upgrades and valuation re-ratings across the sector [27][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of investor positioning, which is currently skewed towards export-driven stocks, suggesting a potential rotation towards domestically focused names as CAPEX surprises materialize [7][28]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the power grid equipment sector in China, highlighting the expected growth in CAPEX, pricing dynamics, and the performance of specific companies within the industry.

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 28 January 2026 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Power Equipment Expert call takeaways on 15th FYP grid capex; Nari Tech and Sieyuan Electric our top picks in 1H26 The share prices of China po ...