策略专题研究 民生研究：2025 年 8 月金股推荐 2025 年 07 月 30 日 ➢ 八月配置策略。本文按照自上而下的逻辑，梳理出 10 只个股与 3 只 ETF。 ➢ 能源开采：潞安环能。1、现货煤比例高，业绩弹性大。2、煤价反弹启动， 需求有望超预期。3、PB 估值较低。 ➢ 有色金属：华友钴业。1、一体化布局优势显著，湿法镍产能增长贡献稳定 增量盈利。2、政策托底镍钴价格中枢抬升，6 月钴进口环比显著下降进入去库节 奏指引钴涨价机遇，印尼镍钴产能布局规模领先显著受益。3、绑定优质海外头 部客户，积极布局海外前驱体正极材料产能。4，大股东增持彰显公司未来发展 信心。 ➢ 汽车：吉利汽车。极氪计划私有化，将成为吉利全资子公司并退市，利于整 合资源、消除决策障碍，增强与吉利品牌协同，落实《台州宣言》，助力降本增效 与竞争力提升。银河品牌有望受益竞争缓解，A7 已预售、8 月上市，M9 预计 2025 年三季度推出。集团将年销量目标从 271 万辆上调 11%至 300 万辆，技 术降本与规模化有望推动主品牌盈利。极氪发布浩瀚-S 架构，高端 SUV9X 两小 时盲订 1 万台，8 月底预售，光辉版车型超 ...

湄公河联合巡逻收官，巴以冲突持续紧张 [Table_Industry] 军工 中老缅泰协作筑区域安全，加沙局势恶化引多国联署声明 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 证书编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 彭磊(分析师) | 010-83939806 | penglei2@gtht.com | S0880518100003 | | 杨天昊(分析师) | 010-83939791 | yangtianhao@gtht.com | S0880523080010 | 本报告导读： 军工板块上涨，中老缅泰湄公河联合巡逻圆满收官，巴以冲突态势持续紧张。大国 博弈加剧是长期趋势，军工长期向好。 投资要点： 军工《美出台万亿美元国防预算，PrSM 导弹进 入量产阶段》2025.07.21 军工《山东舰亮相香港，韩国与波兰达成坦克出 口协议》2025.07.10 股 票 研 究 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 双 周 报 证 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.29 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [Tabl ...

国金·月度金股 8 月： | 代码 | 简称 | 行业 | 收盘价 | 流通市值 | | EPS(元) | | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (元) | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/28 | 百万元 | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | | 000425.SZ | 徐工机械 | 工程机械 | 8.60 | 69632.81 | 0.68 | 0.88 | 12.72 | 9.82 | | 603308.SH | 应流股份 | 通用设备 | 27.18 | 18456.21 | 0.66 | 0.92 | 41.50 | 29.54 | | 000831.SZ | 中国稀土 | 小金属 | 45.89 | 48699.42 | 0.36 | 0.45 | 126.42 | 102.43 | | 6881.HK | 中国银河* | 证券Ⅱ | 11.24 | 41486.67 | 1.06 | 1.20 | 10.60 | 9.37 | | 1428.HK ...

截至2025年7月28日 10:20，中证高端装备细分50指数强势上涨1.43%，成分股光电股份10cm涨停，高德红外上涨5.56%，北方导航上涨4.69%，菲利华、普天 科技等个股跟涨。高端装备ETF(159638)上涨1.36%， 冲击3连涨。 流动性方面，高端装备ETF盘中换手1.65%，成交2092.11万元。拉长时间看，截至7月25日，高端装备ETF近1月日均成交5446.32万元。规模方面，高端装备 ETF最新规模达12.36亿元。 截至7月25日，高端装备ETF近1年净值上涨34.71%。从收益能力看，截至2025年7月25日，高端装备ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为19.30%，最长连涨月 数为2个月，最长连涨涨幅为29.39%，上涨月份平均收益率为6.55%。 场外投资者可通过中证高端装备细分50ETF联接基金（018028）布局行业轮动机会。 中航证券研报指出，截至2025年7月25日，军工行业共计67家企业公布2025年半年度业绩预告、快报，其中41家业绩预增，26家业绩预减。涨幅居前的上市 公司主要围绕船舶、防务、航天等产业链。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操 ...

一是建体系方向，建议关注AI赋能下的智能化作战底座； 二是补短板方向，建议关注围绕低成本、智能化特点的行业，包括低成本精确制导弹药、无人系统； 从催化来看，八一建军节在前，国防军工板块关注度升温。此外，九三阅兵临近，阅兵行情同样值得关注。 有机构分析指出，截至2025年7月25日，多家上市公司披露2025年半年报，仍然呈现结构性特点，船舶、低成本精确制导弹药方向等细分方向 公司表现较好。从上下游角度来看，上游军工电子板块表现较好。 往后看，随着军队人事调整和相关制度改革的逐步落地、"十四五"后期订单有望逐步落实、积压叠加新增需求、外延并购预期升温，预计2025 下半年国防军工行业即将进入业绩兑现阶段。 配置方面建议围绕三条投资主线： 7月28日早盘，国防军工板块表现活跃，中证军工指数成份股方面，建设工业涨停，华丰科技、西部材料、六九一二等多股涨超6%，北方导航 涨超5%。 热门ETF方面，代码有"八一"的国防军工ETF（512810）场内价格快速拉涨逾1%，实时成交超3100万元。 | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 | | | 30સ | 604 = | | | F9 盘前盘后 叠加 九转 画线 丁具 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the military industry and new materials sector, particularly highlighting the shipbuilding and low-cost ammunition segments [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Shipbuilding Sector Performance**: Companies like China Shipbuilding, China Power, China Ship Defense, and China Heavy Industry reported significant profit increases in the first half of the year, with China Shipbuilding's net profit reaching between 2.8 billion to 3.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 98% to 119% [3]. - **Low-Cost Ammunition Sector**: The low-cost ammunition segment is experiencing high demand, with upstream, midstream, and downstream companies showing substantial profit growth. For instance, Beihua Co. reported a net profit of 98 million to 110 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 182% to 220% [6]. - **Future Growth Drivers**: The military industry is expected to grow due to domestic smart battlefield needs, military trade demand, and broader military-related requirements, including low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace [7]. Additional Important Content - **Commercial Aerospace Developments**: The National Space Administration has initiated measures to enhance quality supervision of commercial aerospace projects, indicating a shift towards proactive governance in the industry [10][12]. - **Low Altitude Economy Initiatives**: Chengdu has established a future industry fund exceeding 100 billion yuan to support low-altitude economic development, including flying cars [13]. - **Additive Manufacturing Innovations**: Recent advancements in additive manufacturing technologies are expanding applications from metals to composites, with significant investments in core technology development [14]. - **Commercial Launch Services**: A recent tender for launch services worth 1.336 billion yuan indicates a growing role for private commercial rockets in the aerospace sector [9]. Conclusion - The military and aerospace industries are poised for growth driven by technological advancements and increasing domestic and international demand. The focus on quality management and innovation will be crucial for sustaining this growth trajectory.

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, North Navigation (600435.SH), with a target price of 17.00 yuan based on an 85 times PE valuation for 2025 [3][6]. Core Viewpoints - North Navigation is a leading supplier of military guidance systems, benefiting from the rising demand for long-range artillery systems. The company focuses on military products, particularly in navigation control and ammunition information technology, and has developed a robust technical platform [1][6]. - The company is expected to see a significant recovery in profitability in 2025, with a forecasted net profit of 1.05 to 1.2 billion yuan, compared to a loss of 742.17 million yuan in the previous year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - North Navigation is a key player in the domestic navigation control and ammunition information sector, backed by the China Ordnance Industry Group. The company has established a comprehensive technical platform encompassing seven major military technology sectors [1][25]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates a revenue of 2.748 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 22.91% year-on-year, with a net profit of 59 million yuan, down 69.29% from the previous year. However, a significant turnaround is expected in 2025, with projected revenues of 5.244 billion yuan and net profits of 305 million yuan [2][4][30]. Growth Drivers - The demand for long-range guided weapons is expected to drive substantial growth for North Navigation. The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing international market for its products, particularly following a significant contract for the AR-3 rocket artillery system with the UAE worth approximately 1.7 billion yuan [2][3][65]. Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.24 billion yuan in 2025, 6.44 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.64 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 310 million yuan, 400 million yuan, and 510 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 91%, 23%, and 19% respectively [3][4][16].

| 首选股票 | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 600435.SH | 北方导航 | 买入-A | | 002025.SZ | 航天电器 | 增持-A | | 600760.SH | 中航沈飞 | 买入-A | | 600862.SH | 中航高科 | 增持-A | | 600967.SH | 内蒙一机 | 增持-A | 相关报告： 【山证国防军工】全球市场格局发生剧 变，中国客机迎来历史机遇-【山证军工】 国产大型客机专题报告 2025.6.6 【山证国防军工】业绩筑底景气回升， 商业航天加速突破-【山证军工】国防军 工 2025 年度策略 2025.1.8 分析师： 骆志伟 资料来源：最闻 执业登记编码：S0760522050002 邮箱：luozhiwei@sxzq.com 李通 执业登记编码：S0760521110001 电话：010-83496308 邮箱：litong@sxzq.com 国防军工 国防军工 2025 年中期策略 领先大市-A(维持) 国际局势动荡加剧，我国军贸大有可为 ➢ 筑底回升重启景气周期。2025 年是承上启下的一年，过去半年中十四五 延迟订单逐步 ...

方正富邦基金经理吴昊认为，军工板块深藏爆发机遇，9月3日阅兵仪式可能会引发军工股提前表现，若 地缘局势升级也会催生相关投资机会。 2023年以来，军工行业基本面受到人事调整等因素影响，订单延后，行业景气度下滑。而在当下时 点，"十四五"计划进入最后一年，军工行业扰动因素已基本消除，下游需求呈恢复性增长，同时2027年 建设目标迫在眉睫，中长期目标也对行业发展提供明确指引：2035年基本实现国防和军队现代化，2050 年把人民军队全面建成世界一流军队。伴随需求恢复，产能结构逐步优化，国防军工板块有望得到大幅 改善，安全边际高，具备长期成长确定性。优先关注新域新质领域，如大飞机、低空经济、商业航天、 无人机、机器狗等方向。 军工行业自2024年下半年以来，走势呈现震荡下行态势，其主要驱动因素在于估值驱动。根据WinD数 据，2024年9月24日至2025年7月21日期间，军工板块受到A股风险偏好回暖水涨船高，国防军工指数大 涨37.24%,在各细分板块中排名前列，高于同期沪深300，27.17%的指数涨幅。 近一年来，低空经济、大飞机、军事智能化等主题活跃度提升，地缘冲突不断，军工板块热度高企，重 仓军工相关基金 ...

Group 1 - The report aims to summarize important weekly deep reports, significant commentary, and marginal changes within the macro strategy team of large manufacturing [1] - Core stocks identified by the team include Huada Jiutian, Shanghai Yanpu, Zhejiang Rongtai, and others [1] - The core portfolio consists of companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG Group, and others, indicating a focus on key players in the manufacturing sector [1] Group 2 - As of July 18, 2025, the best-performing indices in the last week included Communication (+8%), Pharmaceutical Biology (+4%), and Automotive (+3%) [2][13] - The top three indices in the large manufacturing sector were Changjiang Lithium Battery Equipment Index (+5%), Automotive Parts (+4%), and Automotive (+3%) [2][15] - A deep report on Xuguang Electronics highlights its leadership in domestic vacuum devices and growth potential in controllable nuclear fusion and electronic materials [4] Group 3 - The report indicates that the total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project has commenced, driving demand for construction machinery [3] - The defense sector is expected to benefit from military trade leading to strategic reassessment, particularly in regions like the Middle East [3] - The competitive landscape for vacuum arc extinguishing chambers shows a high concentration in the domestic market, with a CR2 of about 60% [5] Group 4 - The report forecasts a revenue CAGR of approximately 35% for the megawatt-level electronic tube segment from 2024 to 2027 [4] - The power equipment business is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of about 10% during the same period, driven by ongoing investments in the power grid [4] - The military business is projected to benefit from increased defense spending, with precision structural components expected to account for 58% of military revenue in 2024 [5] Group 5 - The report anticipates that the company will achieve revenues of 1.95 billion, 2.39 billion, and 3.03 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a CAGR of 24% [4] - The expected net profit for the same period is projected to be 170 million, 210 million, and 270 million yuan, with a CAGR of 39% [4] - The report highlights the company's strong position in the domestic aluminum nitride materials market, benefiting from domestic substitution trends [5] Group 6 - The report notes that the company has a high market share in the medical information technology sector, covering approximately 60% of tertiary hospitals by the end of 2024 [6] - The expected growth in the domestic medical software industry is projected at a CAGR of 11.5% from 2024 to 2029 [6] - The company is collaborating with major players like Huawei to develop a comprehensive intelligent medical information platform [6]