供给收缩叠加大宗叙事，持续看好煤炭板块表现 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 28 日 评级： 增持（维持） 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 20,999.46 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 20,568.53 | 布局弹性标的》2026-02-07 有望上行推荐弹性》2026-02-07 2026-02-02 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 202 ...

| 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | 16.95 | 1.68 | 1.01 | 1.32 | 10 | 17 | 13 | 推荐 | | 600546 | 山煤国际 | 11.79 | 1.14 | 0.67 | 1.17 | 10 | 18 | 10 | 推荐 | | 601699 | 潞安环能 | 14.89 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 1.01 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 推荐 | | 600348 | 华阳股份 | 10.09 | 0.62 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 16 | 21 | 15 | 推荐 | | 600188 | 兖矿能源 | 17.72 | 1.44 | 0.94 | 1.18 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 推荐 | | 6010 ...

近5日融资融券数据一览见下表： 山煤国际融资融券信息显示，融资方面，当日融资买入1697.73万元，融资偿还2019.62万元，融资净偿 还321.89万元。融券方面，融券卖出1.32万股，融券偿还900.0股，融券余量22.6万股，融券余额266.45 万元。融资融券余额4.88亿元。 证券之星消息，截至2026年2月27日收盘，山煤国际(600546)报收于11.79元，上涨2.79%，换手率 1.39%，成交量27.46万手，成交额3.21亿元。 2月27日的资金流向数据方面，主力资金净流入1244.5万元，占总成交额3.88%，游资资金净流入339.75 万元，占总成交额1.06%，散户资金净流出1584.26万元，占总成交额4.94%。 近5日资金流向一览见下表： 该股最近90天内共有6家机构给出评级，买入评级2家，增持评级4家；过去90天内机构目标均价为 11.3。 资金流向名词解释：指通过价格变化反推资金流向。股价处于上升状态时主动性买单形成的成交额是推 动股价上涨的力量，这部分成交额被定义为资金流入，股价处于下跌状态时主动性卖单产生的的成交额 是推动股价下跌的力量，这部分成交额被定义为资金流出 ...

Q&A 山煤国际 20260226 摘要 公司目前生产经营保持正常稳定，春节后各矿井已恢复生产，销售端持 续正常供应煤炭，总体目标与 2025 年保持一致，2026 年 1 月产销完 成全年目标的均衡进度。 长春兴矿和韩家洼矿已完成产能核增公告要素，可按公告产能组织生产， 2025 年和 2026 年经营未发生变化。购买产能指标折算成本约为 150 元/吨，低于市场价 150-200 元/吨区间。 2024 年产量 3,300 万吨，2025 年 3,000 万吨，产量变化主要由于两 矿 2024 年下半年完成公告产能相关工作。2025 年两矿产能利用率为 100%，2024 年约为一半。 公司近期对印尼出口煤炭，通过股东山煤集团的煤炭出口专营权实现， 出口量不会很大。动力煤执行长协定价，炼焦煤随行就市。长协量约为 每年 1,800-1,900 万吨，其中港口长协约 600-700 万吨。 截至年底库存为几十万吨，年内最高库存为 200 多万吨，主要为动力煤。 动力煤订货在年初确定全年供货量，价格及运输节奏取决于下游库存与 需求，存在季节性差异。炼焦煤销售以地销或铁路为主，一般不进港。 2026 年初公司生产 ...

证券之星消息，截至2026年2月25日收盘，山煤国际(600546)报收于11.59元，上涨0.09%，换手率 1.47%，成交量29.12万手，成交额3.38亿元。 山煤国际2025年三季报显示，前三季度公司主营收入153.32亿元，同比下降30.2%；归母净利润10.46亿 元，同比下降49.74%；扣非净利润10.88亿元，同比下降50.23%；其中2025年第三季度，公司单季度主 营收入56.73亿元，同比下降28.27%；单季度归母净利润3.91亿元，同比下降50.53%；单季度扣非净利 润4.06亿元，同比下降49.65%；负债率49.71%，投资收益4219.74万元，财务费用1.56亿元，毛利率 34.71%。山煤国际（600546）主营业务：煤炭生产业务、煤炭销售和物流业务、非煤贸易业务。 该股最近90天内共有6家机构给出评级，买入评级2家，增持评级4家；过去90天内机构目标均价为 11.3。 资金流向名词解释：指通过价格变化反推资金流向。股价处于上升状态时主动性买单形成的成交额是推 动股价上涨的力量，这部分成交额被定义为资金流入，股价处于下跌状态时主动性卖单产生的的成交额 是推动股价下跌的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the coal industry is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with a favorable combination of fundamentals and policies, making it a good time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The report highlights a significant increase in coal prices, with Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal price reaching 717 CNY/ton, up 24 CNY/ton week-on-week, driven by optimistic market expectations post-holiday and reduced supply from major coal-producing regions [11][30] - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand balance in the short term, with a medium to long-term supply gap expected to persist, reinforcing the investment logic in coal assets [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Tracking - As of February 13, the market price for Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal is 717 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.5% [6][30] - International coal prices have also risen, with Newcastle's FOB price for Q5500 coal at 81.5 USD/ton, up 6.5% week-on-week [6][30] 2. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 84.4%, down 3.1 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 81.39%, down 5.3 percentage points [11][49] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 10% week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw an 18.8% decline [11][50] 3. Coal Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 1.854 million tons week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw a smaller increase of 0.235 million tons [50] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, while also considering companies with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and others [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, with specific recommendations for several companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the coal market post-Chinese New Year, driven by supply constraints and inventory depletion, with expectations of significant price increases [9][11]. - Domestic coal prices are stabilizing with slight fluctuations, while port coal prices are accelerating upward [12][11]. - The report anticipates that coal prices will return to a balanced supply-demand state in 2023-2024, with prices expected to fluctuate between 750-1000 RMB/ton [11][12]. Summary by Sections Company Earnings Forecast, Valuation, and Ratings - Recommended companies include: - Jinko Coal Industry (601001): EPS forecast of 1.68 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - Shanxi Coal International (600546): EPS forecast of 1.14 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699): EPS forecast of 0.82 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 17 [2]. - Huayang Co., Ltd. (600348): EPS forecast of 0.62 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 15 [2]. - Yancoal Energy (600188): EPS forecast of 1.44 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 12 [2]. - China Shenhua Energy (601088): EPS forecast of 2.95 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 14 [2]. - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225): EPS forecast of 2.31 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - China Coal Energy (601898): EPS forecast of 1.46 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 10 [2]. - CGN Mining (1164.HK): EPS forecast of 0.04 HKD for 2024, with a PE of 108 [2]. - Xinji Energy (601918): EPS forecast of 0.92 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 8 [2]. - Huaibei Mining (600985): EPS forecast of 1.80 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 7 [2]. - Lanhua Sci-Tech (600123): EPS forecast of 0.49 RMB for 2024, with a PE of 13 [2]. Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 1.9% compared to the 0.4% increase in the CSI 300 index [20][17]. - The thermal coal sub-sector showed the highest increase of 3.0%, while the coking coal sub-sector experienced a decline of 3.9% [20][17]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that domestic coal supply is tightening due to the Chinese New Year holiday, with a significant decrease in port inventory levels compared to the previous year [11][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high spot market exposure and recommends focusing on companies with strong balance sheets and high cash flow [12][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Shanmei International (600546) has experienced a decline in its financial performance, with significant drops in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the previous year [2] - As of February 10, 2026, Shanmei International's stock closed at 11.23 yuan, reflecting a 1.35% increase, with a trading volume of 307,400 hands and a total transaction amount of 343 million yuan [1] - The company reported a main operating income of 15.332 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 30.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.046 billion yuan, down 49.74% year-on-year [2] Group 2 - In the third quarter of 2025, Shanmei International's single-quarter main operating income was 5.673 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.27% year-on-year, and the single-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders was 391 million yuan, down 50.53% year-on-year [2] - The company has a debt ratio of 49.71%, with investment income of 42.197 million yuan and financial expenses of 156 million yuan, while maintaining a gross profit margin of 34.71% [2] - Over the past 90 days, six institutions have provided ratings for the stock, with two buy ratings and four hold ratings, and the average target price set by institutions is 11.3 yuan [2]

Group 1 - The stock of Shanmei International (600546) closed at 11.08 yuan on February 9, 2026, with an increase of 0.45% and a trading volume of 279,500 hands, resulting in a transaction amount of 310 million yuan [1] - On February 9, the net outflow of main funds was 356,400 yuan, accounting for 0.11% of the total transaction amount, while retail investors had a net inflow of 4.19 million yuan, representing 1.35% of the total transaction amount [1] - Over the past five days, the stock has experienced fluctuations in fund flows, with notable changes in retail and main funds [1] Group 2 - Shanmei International's total market value is 21.966 billion yuan, with a net asset of 20.457 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.046 billion yuan, ranking 13th, 14th, and 12th respectively in the coal industry [2] - The company reported a 30.2% year-on-year decline in main revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit decrease of 49.74% [2] - The gross profit margin of Shanmei International is 34.71%, significantly higher than the industry average of 19.65%, ranking 5th in the industry [2] Group 3 - In the last 90 days, six institutions have rated the stock, with two buy ratings and four hold ratings, and the average target price set at 11.3 yuan [3] - The concept of fund flow is explained, indicating that the difference between fund inflow and outflow reflects the net force driving stock price changes [3]

Group 1: Coal Prices - Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) price increased to 692 CNY/ton, up 1 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 7 [1] - Datong thermal coal price (Q5500) decreased to 567 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [1] - International thermal coal prices: Newcastle NEWC5500 at 76.3 USD/ton, up 1.5 USD/ton week-on-week; ARA6000 at 101.6 USD/ton, down 1.5 USD/ton [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Prices - Beijing Tangshan port coking coal price decreased to 1700 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [2] - Linfen coking coal price decreased to 1570 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 6 [2] - Australian hard coking coal price at 265.6 USD/ton, up 1.5 USD/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [2] Group 3: Production and Consumption - Sample thermal coal mine capacity utilization at 87.5%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week; coking coal mine utilization at 86.67%, down 2.5 percentage points [2] - Coastal provinces' coal consumption decreased by 16.3 million tons/day, down 7.22% week-on-week as of February 4 [3] - Inland provinces' coal consumption decreased by 81.8 million tons/day, down 18.1% week-on-week as of February 4 [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Current coal market is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy support [4] - Indonesian government reduced coal production quotas by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, impacting global coal supply [4] - Domestic coal supply is expected to remain constrained, with potential for price recovery due to demand resilience [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Coal sector remains attractive due to high performance, cash flow, and dividends; recommended to focus on quality coal companies [6] - Suggested companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal Australia among others [6] - Emphasis on the importance of coal assets as they are undervalued and have high potential for appreciation [5]