Core Viewpoints - The coal market is experiencing a slight recovery, with the advantage of imported coal narrowing further [7][81] - The overall profitability of the coal mining industry is expected to improve in 2026 after a significant decline in 2025 [7][84] Market Dynamics - The CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 698 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2 RMB/ton [13][82] - The average daily consumption of coal in coastal power plants is 208,000 tons, with a stock availability of 15.4 days [22][28] - The coal inventory at major ports decreased by 5.5% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [22][28] Industry Insights - The coal mining industry saw a profit total of 352 billion RMB in 2025, a year-on-year decline of 42% [7][84] - The expected supply-demand balance in 2026 is anticipated to support coal prices, with a significant reduction in supply growth [7][84] - The long-term contracts for coal supply in 2026 are expected to enhance the fulfillment rate due to increased market factors [84][85] Key Companies - Major companies with stable dividends include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal [7] - Companies benefiting from improved demand expectations and supply contraction include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7] - Companies with long-term growth potential include Huayang Co., New Energy Co., and Baofeng Energy [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including 晋控煤业, 山煤国际, 潞安环能, 华阳股份, 兖矿能源, 中国神华, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中广核矿业 [2][14] Core Insights - The reduction in coal production in Indonesia has heightened expectations for supply contraction, which is anticipated to positively impact coal prices post-holiday [6][9] - The report forecasts that coal prices may return to a seasonal fluctuation range of 750-1000 RMB/ton, driven by domestic capacity reductions and Indonesian production cuts [9][10] - The report highlights the importance of companies with high spot market exposure and improved balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which are expected to be less affected by production limits [9][14] Summary by Sections Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuation, and Ratings - 晋控煤业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.68 RMB, PE for 2024A is 9, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 山煤国际: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.14 RMB, PE for 2024A is 10, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 潞安环能: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.82 RMB, PE for 2024A is 16, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 华阳股份: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.62 RMB, PE for 2024A is 15, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 兖矿能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.44 RMB, PE for 2024A is 11, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 中国神华: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.95 RMB, PE for 2024A is 14, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 陕西煤业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.31 RMB, PE for 2024A is 10, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 中煤能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.46 RMB, PE for 2024A is 10, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 中广核矿业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.04 HKD, PE for 2024A is 93, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 新集能源: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.92 RMB, PE for 2024A is 8, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 淮北矿业: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.80 RMB, PE for 2024A is 7, rated as "Recommended" [2] - 兰花科创: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.49 RMB, PE for 2024A is 13, rated as "Cautiously Recommended" [2] Market Dynamics - The coal market has seen a slight increase in prices due to ongoing supply constraints and decreasing port inventories, with expectations for a price surge post-holiday as downstream operations resume [9][10] - The report notes that the coal consumption by power plants remains high, despite a week-on-week decrease, indicating strong demand [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal price trends and the performance of coal companies in light of changing market conditions [10][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Yancoal Energy, and China Shenhua [5][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that supply constraints, particularly from Indonesia, are expected to support coal prices, suggesting a favorable environment for investment in flexible coal stocks [7][8]. - The coal market is anticipated to maintain a weak supply-demand balance as the Chinese New Year approaches, but with expectations of rising global coal prices due to reduced supply from Indonesia [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for coal prices to rise, recommending a focus on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, as well as those with significant production capacity growth [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 19,855.11 billion [2]. 2. Company Performance - Key companies such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Lu'an Environmental Energy are projected to have strong earnings per share (EPS) growth, with respective estimates for 2026 at 0.40 and 0.76 [5]. - The report tracks the operational performance of listed companies, noting their dividend policies and growth prospects [12][14]. 3. Coal Price Tracking - The report provides insights into coal price trends, indicating that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port has seen a slight increase, while coking coal prices have experienced a decline [8][9]. - As of February 6, 2026, the average daily production of thermal coal from sample mines was 5.281 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.90% [8]. 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that supply from Indonesia is tightening due to government-imposed production cuts, which is expected to impact global coal prices positively [7][8]. - Demand for coal is projected to decline as industrial electricity consumption decreases with the approach of the Chinese New Year [7][8]. 5. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment themes: focusing on high-dividend, low-valuation stocks, companies with significant production growth, and those positioned for recovery in coking coal prices [8][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][26]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline significantly in 2026 due to the revision of the RKAB quota, with production set at approximately 600 million tons, a notable decrease from 740 million tons in 2025 [6][7]. - The reduction in coal production is anticipated to lead to a tightening of coal supply, which may drive up global coal prices, particularly for thermal coal [7]. - The Indonesian government is implementing policies to control coal production and exports, aiming to enhance domestic energy security and increase fiscal revenue through coal export taxes [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the coal industry is 37, with a total market capitalization of approximately 198.55 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 194.41 billion yuan [2]. Regulatory Changes - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is reviewing the RKAB quotas, which are crucial for coal mining operations. The approval rate for the first batch of RKAB in 2026 was only 71.49%, with significant reductions in approved quotas for many companies [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic market obligation (DMO) will be adjusted to ensure local demand is met before allowing coal exports. The DMO demand is expected to remain above 250 million tons [7]. - The report predicts that Indonesia's coal exports will face substantial declines starting in Q2 2026, which will further constrain global coal supply and potentially elevate prices [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-elasticity stocks in the thermal coal sector, including companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Huayang Co., and others, as they are expected to benefit from rising coal prices [7].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the industry rating to "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The Indonesian government has proposed a significant reduction in coal production, leading to a suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners, which is expected to exceed market expectations [2][3] - The production quota for 2026 is set at approximately 600 million tons, a substantial decrease from the actual production of 790 million tons in 2025, with core miners facing reductions of 40%-70% [2] - The suspension of spot exports is anticipated to create a supply gap in the global thermal coal market, benefiting international coal prices, particularly for low-calorific thermal coal, which is Indonesia's main export variety [3] Summary by Sections Industry Events - Indonesian miners have halted spot coal exports due to a government-imposed production cut, which has raised concerns about potential layoffs and mine closures [1] - The reduction in coal production quotas is expected to reshape trade patterns, with a quick recovery of exports being unlikely unless the government relaxes its production cut requirements [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that rising overseas coal prices could boost domestic coal price expectations, leading to an upgrade in the industry rating [3] - Companies such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Shanxi Coal International are expected to benefit from this situation [3]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies directly benefiting from Indonesian coal resources, including China Qinfa, Power Development, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and others [11]. Core Insights - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline by approximately 5.5% in 2025, with production estimated at 790 million tons, down from 836 million tons in 2024 [1][14]. - As the world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia's coal exports are projected to decrease by about 5.0% in 2025, with total exports expected to reach 505 million tons [2][20]. - The report highlights significant declines in coal export revenue and tax contributions, leading to increased fiscal pressure on the Indonesian government [3][28]. - Domestic coal demand is expected to grow robustly, driven by population growth and increasing electricity needs [31]. - The Indonesian government plans to implement a series of policies to tighten coal production quotas, increase export taxes, and enhance domestic market obligations (DMO) to support coal prices and increase tax revenue [4][36]. Summary by Sections Coal Production and Export Trends - In 2025, Indonesia's coal production is projected to be 790 million tons, a decrease of 5.5% from 2024 [1][14]. - The coal export volume for 2025 is expected to be 505 million tons, reflecting a 5.0% decline compared to the previous year [2][20]. - The export revenue for coal (excluding lignite) in the first eleven months of 2025 is reported at $22.17 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.27% [28]. Domestic Demand and Policy Changes - The IEA forecasts that Indonesia's coal consumption will reach approximately 266 million tons in 2025, primarily due to population growth and economic expansion [31]. - The Indonesian government is set to implement a "combination policy" to manage coal supply actively, which includes tightening production quotas and increasing export taxes [4][36]. Regulatory and Taxation Framework - New regulations will impose a progressive export tax ranging from 1% to 11%, depending on coal type and price, effective from 2026 [9][44]. - The introduction of stricter mining rights taxes linked to coal quality and production methods is expected to raise operational costs for coal producers [45]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes investment in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the changes in the Indonesian coal market, particularly those with strong domestic market presence and resilience to price fluctuations [11].

证券之星消息，截至2026年2月5日收盘，山煤国际(600546)报收于11.14元，下跌4.54%，换手率3.2%， 成交量63.44万手，成交额7.08亿元。 2月5日的资金流向数据方面，主力资金净流入3543.18万元，占总成交额5.01%，游资资金净流出319.05 万元，占总成交额0.45%，散户资金净流出3224.13万元，占总成交额4.56%。 近5日资金流向一览见下表： 山煤国际融资融券信息显示，融资方面，当日融资买入8015.32万元，融资偿还6754.85万元，融资净买 入1260.47万元。融券方面，融券卖出1.94万股，融券偿还7.88万股，融券余量20.89万股，融券余额 232.71万元。融资融券余额5.07亿元。 近5日融资融券数据一览见下表： 该股主要指标及行业内排名如下： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 注：主力资金为特大单成交，游资为大单成交，散户为中小单成交 山煤国际2025年三季报显示，前三季度公司主营收入153.32亿元，同比下降30.2%；归母净利润10.46亿 元，同比下 ...

Summary of Shanmei International Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shanmei International - **Industry**: Coal Industry Key Points Contracts and Pricing Mechanism - Shanmei International has signed 20 million tons of long-term contracts for 2026, using a pricing mechanism based on the national coal trading center's monthly long-term price plus port price indices, deducting transportation costs to calculate the pithead price. This mechanism has been well accepted by downstream customers [2][6][8] Financial Performance - The average price of metallurgical coal for Q4 2026 is approximately 800 RMB/ton, an increase from 720-723 RMB/ton in Q3 2026. The overall operational performance for Q4 is expected to be slightly better than Q3, with no significant expense provisions or impairment projects anticipated [2][13][14] Trade Volume and Market Dynamics - The coal trade volume for Shanmei International in 2025 decreased due to a drop in import volumes, with imports from Jinsida falling from 18 million tons to around 10 million tons. Future trade volumes are expected to remain relatively stable, potentially slightly below 18 million tons [2][17] Production Capacity and Regulatory Environment - The current washing rate is about 70%, with a washing output rate also above 70%. Since the implementation of the supply guarantee policy, two mines have increased capacity by 6 million tons, completing all necessary procedures. Shanxi province maintains strict safety and environmental regulations, with coal companies adapting to this high-intensity regulatory environment, operating at 100%-110% capacity without exceeding production limits [2][18][21] Resource Expansion and Investment Returns - Shanmei International has a minimum required return on investment of 8%. The company is actively monitoring the release of provincial resources and evaluating new resource opportunities [2][15][16] Inventory and Sales - The coal inventory at the end of Q3 was approximately 1 million tons, with a target to reduce it by 700,000 tons to match the previous year's level of around 300,000 tons by the end of Q4. Sales have improved in Q4 due to adjustments and the development of new port channels [10][11] Shareholder Adjustments - Shanmei International has removed the Shanxi Provincial State-owned Capital Operation Company from its shareholder list as part of a broader strategy for state-owned enterprise management in Shanxi province. However, the company continues to operate independently [20] Production Plans During Holidays - Shanmei International plans to maintain normal production during the 2026 Spring Festival, with no large-scale holidays or shutdowns expected unless mandated by local government [3][22][23] Digital Management Requirements - Current assessments focus on group-level performance, including information rating and investor relations management, without specific new requirements [19] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's operational strategies, market conditions, and regulatory environment.

Group 1 - The A-share market showed recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4100 points, closing up 0.85% while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.21% and the ChiNext Index fell 0.4% [1] - The coal energy sector performed exceptionally well, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Meijin Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal [1][2] - The coal mining and processing sector saw an overall increase of 7.92%, with several stocks achieving limit up, indicating strong market interest and performance [2] Group 2 - Recent cold weather has increased energy demand for heating, prompting local governments to enhance energy supply measures, which supports coal production and supply stability [3] - Analysts are optimistic about coal prices stabilizing and rebounding, with expectations of increased demand post-Chinese New Year, suggesting a tight supply-demand balance [3] - The coal ETF has risen over 10% year-to-date, reflecting strong investor interest and net inflows over the past four days [4] Group 3 - International thermal coal prices have significantly increased, with Australian Newcastle coal futures reaching a one-year high, indicating a bullish trend in the market [5] - Forecasts for the coal industry suggest a notable improvement in profitability by 2026, driven by a slowdown in supply growth and recovery in demand [5]

4613.96 煤炭指数昨日分时走势图 ◎记者 王文嫣 截至2月4日收盘，万得央企煤炭概念指数、万得煤炭开采精选指数涨幅分别达到7.61%和7.58%，中煤 能源、恒源煤电、兖矿能源、山西焦煤、潞安环能、山煤国际、晋控煤业等一批个股涨停。 煤炭企业人士、研究员认为，短期内煤价或受印尼矿商暂停现货煤炭出口等消息的扰动。从中长期来 看，煤炭供需基本面有望持续改善，年度价格中枢有望上移。 近年来，新疆煤炭产量迅速攀升，成为影响市场的重要变量。新疆维吾尔自治区统计局最新发布数据， 2025年全疆规模以上工业企业原煤累计产量5.53亿吨，同比增长1.9%，较2024年17.5%的增速明显放 缓。 煤炭市场已提前进入春节放假状态 卓创资讯煤炭行业报告认为，2026年国内动力煤供应量整体仍将保持在高位充裕水平，但考虑到国内超 产核查及"反内卷"工作将继续推进，且新增产能有限，同时煤矿或有控制产量以平衡库存保障利润行为 等因素影响产量，原煤产量增速将放缓的预期较强。 从供应端来看，主产区部分民营煤矿提前进入春节假期，国有煤矿维持稳定生产以保障供应，整体产量 边际收缩。 从需求端来看，前期寒潮推动沿海电厂日耗维持高位，但随着寒 ...