1月29日的资金流向数据方面，主力资金净流出4419.06万元，占总成交额6.89%，游资资金净流入 2088.37万元，占总成交额3.26%，散户资金净流入2330.69万元，占总成交额3.63%。 证券之星消息，截至2026年1月29日收盘，山煤国际(600546)报收于11.32元，上涨1.25%，换手率 2.87%，成交量56.9万手，成交额6.41亿元。 近5日资金流向一览见下表： 该股最近90天内共有7家机构给出评级，买入评级3家，增持评级4家；过去90天内机构目标均价为 11.3。 资金流向名词解释：指通过价格变化反推资金流向。股价处于上升状态时主动性买单形成的成交额是推 动股价上涨的力量，这部分成交额被定义为资金流入，股价处于下跌状态时主动性卖单产生的的成交额 是推动股价下跌的力量，这部分成交额被定义为资金流出。当天两者的差额即是当天两种力量相抵之后 剩下的推动股价上升的净力。通过逐笔交易单成交金额计算主力资金流向、游资资金流向和散户资金流 向。 注：主力资金为特大单成交，游资为大单成交，散户为中小单成交 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Shanmei International's stock price increased by 5.1%, reaching 11.13 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 419 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.94%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 22.065 billion yuan [1] - Shanmei International Energy Group Co., Ltd. is located in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province, and was established on November 20, 2000, with its listing date on July 31, 2003. The company's main business includes new energy development, coal and coke industry investment, and logistics information consulting services [1] - The revenue composition of Shanmei International includes self-produced coal (36.87%), traded coal (24.93%), metallurgical coal (18.62%), thermal coal (18.25%), transportation (1.16%), and others (0.17%) [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under Galaxy Fund has a significant position in Shanmei International. The Galaxy SSE State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (530880) reduced its holdings by 20,000 shares in the fourth quarter, holding a total of 217,000 shares, which accounts for 3.94% of the fund's net value, making it the second-largest holding [2] - The Galaxy SSE State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (530880) was established on October 30, 2024, with a latest scale of 55.5754 million. Year-to-date return is 0.18%, ranking 5016 out of 5549 in its category; the one-year return is 2.66%, ranking 4150 out of 4285; and the return since inception is 3.02% [2] Group 3 - The fund manager of the Galaxy SSE State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (530880) is Huang Dong, who has a cumulative tenure of 13 years and 129 days. The total asset size of the fund is 1.579 billion yuan, with the best fund return during his tenure being 110.16% and the worst being -21.5% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is expected to see a recovery in performance in Q4 2025, driven by rising coal prices and a favorable supply-demand balance, with potential for a spring rally in Q1 2026 [1][7]. Price Trends - The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal increased from 672 CNY/ton in Q3 2025 to 765 CNY/ton in Q4 2025, marking a 13.8% increase [3]. - In Q4 2025, the price fluctuated significantly, peaking at 834 CNY/ton before dropping to a low of 670 CNY/ton, yet still achieving a notable average increase [2]. Profitability Outlook - The profitability of coal companies is expected to improve, with thermal coal prices rising and coking coal prices also showing significant increases, particularly in long-term contracts [4]. - The average price for coking coal at Jing Tang Port rose to 1726 CNY/ton in Q4 2025, a 10.5% increase from Q3 [4]. Production Dynamics - The "overproduction check" policy has led to a mixed production performance among listed coal companies, with some reporting declines while others saw increases in output [5]. - Major coal producers like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy reported production decreases of 5.0% and 2.1% respectively, while Shaanxi Coal and Yanzhou Coal Energy reported increases of 3.6% and 1.0% [5]. Cost Management - Cost control remains a priority for coal companies, with strategies shifting from volume-driven to cost-focused approaches due to previous low coal prices [6]. - Despite a slight increase in costs expected in Q4 due to rising coal prices and year-end expense settlements, companies have managed to maintain a focus on cost efficiency [6]. Future Supply and Demand - The exit of certain coal supply capacities is anticipated to significantly improve the coal supply-demand balance, with a potential reduction of around 100 million tons if implemented nationwide [8]. - This policy aligns with previous market predictions and is expected to lead to a notable reduction in coal inventories, enhancing price elasticity in 2026 [8]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include stable large-cap thermal coal firms such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal, as well as high-elasticity coal firms like Yanzhou Coal Energy and Jin Coal Industry [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight increase in fund holdings in the coal sector, with total market value rising to 6.874 billion yuan in Q4 2025, up 12.13% from Q3 2025, but still at a low level compared to historical data [9]. - The report notes that the coal sector's fund holding ratio is at its lowest in three years, suggesting low investment crowding in the sector [9]. - Key companies such as China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy are favored by funds, with significant increases in holdings for Yancoal Energy and Shanxi Coal International [9]. - Short-term supply tightening and ongoing replenishment demand are expected to stabilize and potentially rebound coal prices, projected to fluctuate between 750-1000 yuan per ton [9]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with high spot market elasticity, such as Jinko Coal Industry and Shanxi Coal International, as well as industry leaders like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal Industry [9]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - Fund holdings in coal stocks increased to 6.874 billion yuan in Q4 2025, a 12.13% rise from Q3 2025, with a holding ratio of approximately 0.36% of total fund holdings [9]. - The report identifies the top five companies by fund holdings, including China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal Industry, with notable increases in holdings for Yancoal Energy and Shanxi Coal International [9]. Price Outlook - The report anticipates that coal prices will stabilize and rebound due to supply constraints and replenishment needs, with a seasonal fluctuation expected between 750-1000 yuan per ton [9]. - The analysis indicates that the coal industry is likely to return to a state of basic supply-demand balance in 2023-2024, driven by production cuts and regulatory normalization [9].

Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing a slight increase in coking coal prices while thermal coal inventories continue to decline, indicating a potential stabilization in prices moving forward [7][85][87]. Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices have shown a slight decrease, with the CCI5500 thermal coal index reported at 691 RMB/ton, down 11 RMB/ton week-on-week [13][86]. - The production capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is at 89.8%, reflecting a 1.2 percentage point increase week-on-week [23]. - Inventory levels at major ports have decreased, with a reported 6.939 million tons, down 2.4% week-on-week [23][30]. Industry Outlook - The coal industry is expected to see a significant improvement in profitability in 2026, with a projected total profit of 2.97 billion RMB in 2025, down 47% year-on-year [7][87]. - The supply side is anticipated to experience a substantial decrease in growth rates compared to previous years, with coal prices expected to gradually rise [7][87]. - The long-term contracts for coal supply in 2026 are expected to remain stable, with stricter safety regulations likely to limit production [88][89]. Key Companies - Notable companies with stable profit distributions include China Shenhua, Yanzhou Coal, and Shaanxi Coal, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated demand recovery and supply constraints [7][87]. - Companies with high elasticity benefiting from improved demand expectations include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [7][87]. - Long-term growth companies identified include Huayang Co., New Energy, and Baofeng Energy, which are expected to show significant growth potential [7][87].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, recommending several companies based on their performance and market conditions [2][3]. Core Insights - The coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound due to tightening supply and ongoing replenishment demand, despite current weak market conditions [11]. - In 2025, domestic raw coal production is projected to reach 4.83 billion tons, an increase of 7.28 million tons (+1.2%) year-on-year, while total imports are expected to decline by 9.6% to 490 million tons [11]. - The report suggests that coal prices may return to a seasonal fluctuation range of 750-1000 RMB/ton, as supply constraints and regulatory normalization take effect [11]. - Investment recommendations focus on companies with high spot market exposure and strong balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has completed overproduction governance [11][16]. Company Performance Predictions - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, all rated as "Recommended": - Jinko Coal Industry: EPS of 1.68 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - Shanxi Coal International: EPS of 1.14 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - Lu'an Environmental Energy: EPS of 0.82 RMB, PE of 16 for 2024 [2] - Huayang Co.: EPS of 0.62 RMB, PE of 15 for 2024 [2] - Yancoal Energy: EPS of 1.44 RMB, PE of 10 for 2024 [2] - China Shenhua: EPS of 2.95 RMB, PE of 14 for 2024 [2] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry: EPS of 2.31 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - China Coal Energy: EPS of 1.46 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - CGN Mining: EPS of 0.04 HKD, PE of 96 for 2024 [2] - Xinji Energy: EPS of 0.92 RMB, PE of 8 for 2024 [2] - Huaibei Mining: EPS of 1.80 RMB, PE of 7 for 2024 [2] - Lanhua Sci-Tech: EPS of 0.49 RMB, PE of 13 for 2024 [2] Market Dynamics - The coal sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.4%, outperforming the broader market indices [18][21]. - The report notes that the focus on high dividend yields and stable earnings among leading companies enhances their defensive value amid uncertain international conditions [12].

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in electricity generation in Shanxi Province, with a total generation of 440.58 billion kWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% [1] - The breakdown of electricity generation by type shows that thermal power accounts for 80.5% of the total, with a generation of 354.58 billion kWh, down 3.6% year-on-year [1] - Renewable energy sources are showing growth, with wind power generation increasing by 13.8% to 55.58 billion kWh and solar power generation rising by 13.2% to 25.875 billion kWh [1] Electricity Generation Overview - In December 2025, Shanxi Province's electricity generation was 42.26 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3% [1] - The total electricity generation in Shanxi Province is primarily driven by thermal power, followed by wind and solar energy, indicating a shift towards renewable sources despite the overall decline [1] Industry Context - The report is part of a broader analysis by Zhiyan Consulting, which focuses on the energy sector in China from 2026 to 2032, assessing market trends and investment opportunities [1] - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and is organized to ensure comparability with previous years, reflecting the evolving landscape of industrial enterprises in the region [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting an "Overweight" rating, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [22]. Core Insights - The coal industry is anticipated to see a recovery in prices and profits in the second half of 2025, driven by seasonal demand and improved market conditions [1]. - Domestic raw coal production is projected to grow slightly by 1.2% year-on-year in 2025, while coal imports are expected to decline by 9.6% [2][11]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to witness a significant rebound in both thermal coal and coking coal prices, with thermal coal prices rising approximately 13.9% quarter-on-quarter [2][15]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic raw coal production for 2025 is estimated at 4.832 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. Monthly production figures for October, November, and December are projected at 407 million, 427 million, and 437 million tons, respectively, with slight declines in growth rates [5]. - Coal imports for 2025 are expected to total 490 million tons, a decrease of 9.6% compared to the previous year, with notable monthly fluctuations in the last quarter [11]. Price Trends - In Q4 2025, the average spot price for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port is projected to be around 767 RMB/ton, down 6.99% year-on-year but up 13.9% from Q3 2025 [14][15]. - Coking coal prices are also expected to rise, with the average price for Shanxi's main coking coal reaching 1,727 RMB/ton, marking a 0.8% increase year-on-year and a 10.44% increase from Q3 2025 [15]. Company Performance Forecasts - Key companies in the coal sector are expected to report varying performance in Q4 2025. China Shenhua is projected to achieve a net profit of 14.129 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.16% [16]. - Other companies such as TBEA and Erdos are also expected to show significant profit growth, while companies like Shaanxi Coal and Energy may see declines due to price pressures [16]. Valuation Metrics - The report includes a valuation table for key coal companies, indicating their expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 and beyond, providing insights into their market positioning [17].

Summary of Conference Call for Shanmei International Company Overview - **Company**: Shanmei International - **Industry**: Coal Mining and Trading Key Points Financial Performance and Projections - The company expects a concentration of expenses in Q4, with no new capital replacement indicator expenditures, as the last batch of indicators has been purchased [2][5] - The average selling price in Q4 shows an upward trend as of October, although complete data is not yet available [3] - The cost target for 2025 is approximately ten yuan lower than the previous year, with some expenses expected to be concentrated in Q4 [4] Production and Sales - The import trade coal business is expected to see a significant decline in advantages by 2026, with projections indicating that 2027 will not reach the 10 million tons level of 2024 [2][6] - The long-term contract coal volume for 2026 is set at 20 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from 2025, with stable production targets around 35 million tons [2][10] - The company maintains a balanced production of thermal coal and coking coal, targeting 35 million tons, while managing inventory levels to align with last year's figures [8][9] Taxation and Regulatory Environment - Resource tax remains stable between 9.5-10, with no fixed downward trend anticipated, although some special inspections may occur [7] - The company has purchased all necessary capacity indicators, ensuring no risk of overproduction, even with strict policy enforcement [15] Shareholder Returns and Capital Expenditure - The company aims to maintain a 60% dividend payout ratio while balancing resource expansion and shareholder returns, with plans for 2027-2029 yet to be defined [2][12] - Capital expenditures for 2027 are expected to remain within the normal maintenance range of 1.2 to 1.5 billion yuan [14] Market Dynamics and Pricing Strategies - The pricing mechanism for long-term contracts in 2026 will utilize both pithead and port pricing, with adjustments based on market conditions [9] - The company has successfully negotiated coal prices with power plants, which have been adjusted monthly since May [17] Operational Challenges - Winter snowfall may have short-term impacts on production, particularly in transportation, but overall operations in Shanxi are expected to remain stable [18] Strategic Planning - The company is actively seeking resources in Shaanxi, with an investment return rate set at the state-owned enterprise standard of 8% [14] - There are no immediate plans for new pledges from the controlling shareholder, as previous debts have been settled [16] Additional Insights - The metallurgical coal products are primarily sold based on market demand without long-term pricing agreements, indicating a flexible sales strategy [11] - The company is focused on smart mining upgrades, although specific expenditure details are not yet available, with benefits expected to materialize over time [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] Report's Core View - The coal industry is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy factors in resonance. It is advisable to allocate coal stocks on dips. The underlying investment logic of coal production capacity shortage remains unchanged, and coal prices have established a bottom and are expected to rise. High - quality coal enterprises have core asset attributes such as high profitability, high cash flow, high ROE, and high dividends. The coal sector is still undervalued, and its valuation is expected to increase. The coal supply bottleneck is expected to last until the "15th Five - Year Plan", and coal prices are likely to remain high. The report continues to be bullish on the coal sector and recommends top - down attention to several types of coal companies [3][11][12] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Core View and Key Focus - **Core View**: The coal industry is in the early stage of a new upward cycle. The supply side shows an increase in the utilization rate of sample power and coking coal mine wells. On the demand side, there are differences in coal consumption between inland and coastal areas, and non - electric demand also shows different trends. Coal prices stopped falling and rebounded since late December, but the rebound momentum weakened this week. In the future, inventory depletion and the upcoming cold wave will support coal prices, and the market is expected to be stable and slightly strong before the holiday. The coal sector has high - dividend support and upward elasticity, making it a cost - effective investment [11] - **Investment Suggestions**: Focus on companies with stable operations and performance, those with large previous declines and high elasticity, and high - quality metallurgical coal companies. Also, pay attention to other related companies [12] - **Key Focus**: In 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 9.6% year - on - year; India's coal production was basically flat with a slight decline; global seaborne coal trade decreased by 2.8% [13] 2. This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector fell 3.33% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 fell 0.57% to 4731.87. The top - three sectors in terms of gains were computer, electronics, and media [14] - The power coal, coking coal, and coke sectors fell 3.46%, 3.66%, and 4.38% respectively [17] - The top - three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Anyuan Coal Industry (3.97%), Huayang Co., Ltd. (2.90%), and Diantou Energy (0.81%) [20] 3. Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of January 16, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 688.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) was 686.0 yuan/ton, up 1.0 yuan/ton week - on - week; the annual long - term agreement price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 684.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton month - on - month [24] - **Thermal Coal Price**: At ports, the market price of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal (Q5500) from Shanxi was 697 yuan/ton on January 17, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week. At production sites, prices in some areas were stable while in Datong, it decreased. Internationally, FOB and CIF prices showed different trends [30] - **Coking Coal Price**: At ports, the prices of coking coal in Jingtang Port and Lianyungang increased. At production sites, prices in some areas increased while in others they were stable. The CIF price of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal in China increased [32] - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Injection Price**: The coking anthracite car - loading price in Jiaozuo was flat, while the prices of pulverized coal injection in Changzhi and Yangquan decreased [40] 4. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of sample power coal mine wells was 90.6%, up 0.3 percentage points week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of sample coking coal mine wells was 88.47%, up 3.1 percentage points week - on - week [47] - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of January 16, the price difference between domestic and foreign 5000 - kcal and 4000 - kcal thermal coal decreased [43] - **Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory**: Inland 17 provinces saw a decrease in coal inventory and an increase in daily consumption, while coastal 8 provinces saw a decrease in both inventory and consumption [44] - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: The Myspic composite steel price index increased slightly, the price of first - grade metallurgical coke was flat, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, the profit per ton of coke decreased, the profit per ton of steel in the blast furnace increased, the iron - scrap price difference decreased, and the blast furnace scrap consumption ratio decreased [65][66] - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: Urea prices in some regions increased, the national methanol price index decreased, the national ethylene glycol price index decreased, the national acetic acid price index increased, the national synthetic ammonia price index increased, the national cement price index decreased, the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, the float glass operating rate decreased, and chemical weekly coal consumption increased [72][76] 5. Coal Inventory Situation - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: Qinhuangdao Port's coal inventory increased to 550.0 tons; 55 ports' thermal coal inventory decreased to 6830.8 tons; the inventory of 462 sample mines decreased to 283.9 tons [91] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The production - site inventory decreased to 272.4 tons, the six - port inventory decreased to 298.9 tons, the inventory of independent coking plants increased to 954.8 tons, and the inventory of sample steel mills increased to 802.2 tons [92] - **Coke Inventory**: The inventory of coking plants decreased to 40.6 tons, the four - port inventory increased to 188.1 tons, and the inventory of sample steel mills increased to 650.33 tons [94] 6. Coal Transportation Situation - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of January 16, the China Yangtze River Coal Transportation Comprehensive Freight Index (CCSFI) was 704 points, down 3.6 points week - on - week [107] - **Ratio of Cargo to Ships at Four Northern Ports**: As of January 16, the inventory at four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1465.2 tons, the number of anchored ships was 99, and the ratio of cargo to ships was 14.8, down 1.96 week - on - week [102] - **Daqin Line Coal Transportation**: The average daily coal shipment volume on the Daqin Line this week was 118.0 tons, up 9.75 tons week - on - week [107] 7. Weather Situation - As of January 16, the Three Gorges outbound flow was 9180 cubic meters per second, up 23.22% week - on - week [114] - In the next 10 days, there will be precipitation in some areas, and a cold wave will affect many regions with significant temperature drops [114] - In the long - term (January 27 - 30), there will be precipitation in some areas, and the average temperature in some regions will be lower or higher than normal [114] 8. Listed Company Valuation Table and Key Announcements - **Listed Company Valuation Table**: The table shows the closing prices, net profit attributable to shareholders, EPS, and PE of key listed companies from 2024A to 2027E [115] - **Key Announcements**: Xinji Energy released its 2025 performance report; Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. announced the progress of its controlling shareholder's strategic restructuring; Guanghui Energy announced a guarantee - related关联交易; Meijin Energy announced a guarantee for its subsidiary and its 2025 performance forecast [116][117][118] 9. This Week's Important Industry News - By 2030, Guizhou's coal production and trial - operation capacity will reach 260 million tons per year [119] - Yunnan will increase coal resource exploration and promote the release of advanced coal production capacity [119] - 20 coal mines in Ordos passed the intelligent acceptance [119] - Guizhou has made breakthroughs in the coal and unconventional natural gas fields [119] - Jiangsu released its 2026 major project list, including one coal - related project [120]