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供需仍有改善空间,重视权益配置价值
Huafu Securities· 2026-01-17 12:20
Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the coal industry is currently experiencing a transformation, with policies aimed at energy security and a shift in supply dynamics. The coal price is expected to stabilize, with potential fluctuations in the short term [5][6] - The report highlights the limited elasticity of coal supply due to strict capacity controls and increasing mining difficulties, particularly in eastern regions. This is expected to lead to a concentration of production in western areas, raising supply costs [5] - The report suggests that despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs will support coal prices, which are anticipated to maintain a volatile upward trend [5] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 3.11%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.54 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has increased by 2.96% [13] 2. Thermal Coal - As of January 16, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 695 CNY/ton, down 4 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 66 CNY/ton [3][32] - Daily average production from 462 sample mines is 5.467 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [3][42] - The report notes a significant drop in daily consumption at major power plants, with inventory levels slightly increasing [3][46] 3. Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port has risen to 1,770 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 150 CNY/ton [4][76] - Daily average production from 523 sample mines is 769,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [4][76] - The report indicates that the coking coal market is experiencing upward price adjustments, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from steel production [4][76] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from a bottoming coal price cycle are also highlighted, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6] - The report recommends considering companies with integrated coal and power operations to mitigate cyclical volatility, such as Shaanxi Energy and Xinji Energy [6]
寒潮有望提振需求,逢低布局低位个股
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2026-01-17 11:40
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to experience a recovery in demand due to a cold wave, which may stimulate heating needs and lead to increased procurement [7]. - The report highlights that the coal price is likely to stabilize and potentially increase in the latter part of January, driven by a combination of steady supply and moderate demand recovery [7]. - The investment strategy suggests positioning in coal stocks that have shown resilience and potential for growth, particularly those with strong dividend yields and low valuations [8]. Summary by Sections Basic Conditions - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,905.163 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 1,857.669 billion yuan [2]. Key Company Performance - Major companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal are highlighted for their strong earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, with recommendations to buy or hold based on their growth potential [5]. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes fluctuations in coal prices, with a recent increase in coking coal prices by 150 yuan/ton, while thermal coal prices have seen a slight decline [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from sample mines is reported at 5.467 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.28% [8]. Inventory and Supply Chain - Coal inventory levels at major ports have increased, with a total of 27.012 million tons reported as of January 17, indicating a year-on-year increase of 5.50% [7]. - The report anticipates a tightening supply in the near term due to ongoing safety inspections and the upcoming holiday season affecting production [7]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment lines: 1. Companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, such as China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy [8]. 2. Companies with growth potential based on their production capacity, such as Yancoal Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal [8]. 3. Companies positioned for recovery in coking coal prices, including Lu'an Huanneng and Pingmei Shenma [8].
煤炭周报:寒潮来袭叠加节前补库,煤价或震荡偏强运行-20260117
Minsheng Securities· 2026-01-17 09:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several companies in the coal industry, including 晋控煤业, 山煤国际, 潞安环能, 华阳股份, 兖矿能源, 中国神华, 陕西煤业, 中煤能源, and 中广核矿业 [3][4]. Core Insights - The coal prices are expected to remain strong due to a combination of cold weather and pre-holiday stockpiling, with prices projected to fluctuate between 750-1000 RMB/ton [10][12]. - The report highlights a recovery in coal prices post-New Year, driven by reduced production and low inventory levels at ports [10][12]. - The focus is on companies with high spot market exposure and improved balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has completed overproduction governance for 2024 [10][12]. - The report suggests that downstream replenishment has begun, leading to a stable to slightly strong outlook for coking coal prices [10][12]. - The first round of price increases for coke is anticipated due to rising raw material costs and improved steel mill profitability [10][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The coal sector experienced a weekly decline of 3.3%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [18][21]. - The best-performing stocks included 云维股份 and 江钨装备, while 大有能源 faced the largest decline [24][26]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that Mongolia's coal exports increased by 7.11% year-on-year, while Australia's coal export value decreased by 13.48% [28][32]. - China's coal imports rose by 11.94% in December 2025 compared to the previous year, indicating a recovery in demand [34][34]. Company Performance - New集能源 reported a 3.01% increase in raw coal production for 2025, while 中煤能源 saw an 8.0% decrease in December's coal production [44][45]. - 大有能源 projected a significant net loss for 2025, highlighting the challenges faced by the company in the current market environment [46][51].
股票行情快报:山煤国际(600546)1月13日主力资金净买入85.61万元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-13 11:34
山煤国际2025年三季报显示,前三季度公司主营收入153.32亿元,同比下降30.2%;归母净利润10.46亿 元,同比下降49.74%;扣非净利润10.88亿元,同比下降50.23%;其中2025年第三季度,公司单季度主 营收入56.73亿元,同比下降28.27%;单季度归母净利润3.91亿元,同比下降50.53%;单季度扣非净利 润4.06亿元,同比下降49.65%;负债率49.71%,投资收益4219.74万元,财务费用1.56亿元,毛利率 34.71%。山煤国际(600546)主营业务:煤炭生产业务、煤炭销售和物流业务、非煤贸易业务。 该股最近90天内共有10家机构给出评级,买入评级5家,增持评级5家;过去90天内机构目标均价为 11.69。 证券之星消息,截至2026年1月13日收盘,山煤国际(600546)报收于10.41元,下跌1.51%,换手率 1.0%,成交量19.79万手,成交额2.07亿元。 1月13日的资金流向数据方面,主力资金净流入85.61万元,占总成交额0.41%,游资资金净流出86.52万 元,占总成交额0.42%,散户资金净流入0.91万元。 近5日资金流向一览见下表: 该股 ...
股票行情快报:山煤国际(600546)1月12日主力资金净买入562.42万元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-12 11:16
该股主要指标及行业内排名如下: 证券之星消息,截至2026年1月12日收盘,山煤国际(600546)报收于10.57元,下跌0.38%,换手率 1.27%,成交量25.13万手,成交额2.65亿元。 1月12日的资金流向数据方面,主力资金净流入562.42万元,占总成交额2.12%,游资资金净流出 1721.26万元,占总成交额6.48%,散户资金净流入1158.84万元,占总成交额4.36%。 近5日资金流向一览见下表: 该股最近90天内共有10家机构给出评级,买入评级5家,增持评级5家;过去90天内机构目标均价为 11.69。 资金流向名词解释:指通过价格变化反推资金流向。股价处于上升状态时主动性买单形成的成交额是推 动股价上涨的力量,这部分成交额被定义为资金流入,股价处于下跌状态时主动性卖单产生的的成交额 是推动股价下跌的力量,这部分成交额被定义为资金流出。当天两者的差额即是当天两种力量相抵之后 剩下的推动股价上升的净力。通过逐笔交易单成交金额计算主力资金流向、游资资金流向和散户资金流 向。 注:主力资金为特大单成交,游资为大单成交,散户为中小单成交 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理,由AI算法生成(网 ...
供给约束再起,重视煤炭景气回暖与价值重估 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2026-01-12 02:53
Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is entering a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy factors aligning, making it an opportune time to invest in coal stocks [5] Price Trends - As of January 10, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 696 RMB/ton, an increase of 17 RMB/ton week-on-week [2] - The price for Shanxi-produced coking coal at Jingtang port remains stable at 1650 RMB/ton as of January 9 [3] - International thermal coal prices show mixed trends, with Newcastle NEWC5500 at 71.8 USD/ton (up 0.3 USD) and ARA6000 at 95.3 USD/ton (down 1.8 USD) [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 90.3%, up 8.2 percentage points week-on-week, while coking coal mine utilization is at 85.34%, up 5.7 percentage points [3] - Coastal provinces show an increase in daily coal consumption by 29.90 thousand tons/day (+15.11%), while inland provinces see a decrease of 7.40 thousand tons/day (-1.81%) [4][5] - Chemical coal consumption has increased by 8.36 thousand tons/day (+1.13%) [4] Inventory Levels - As of January 8, coal inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 111.60 million tons (-3.17%), while inland provinces saw a larger drop of 409.00 million tons (-4.15%) [4] Investment Strategy - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a recommendation to invest in quality coal companies [7] - Companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others are highlighted for their stable operations and strong performance [7] - The coal market is expected to remain tight in the next 3-5 years, with a focus on the potential for price increases and valuation recovery [6][7]
供需边际改善预期较强,煤价企稳向好有望延续
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2026-01-10 13:26
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the coal industry, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Mining, Yancoal Energy, China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others [5]. Core Views - The coal market is expected to see strong marginal improvements in supply and demand, leading to a stabilization and potential increase in coal prices. The report anticipates that coal prices will continue to rise due to high electricity demand during the cold weather and a reduction in port inventories [6][8]. - The demand side remains resilient, with non-electric demand and electricity demand both expected to maintain high levels. The report highlights that steel production and chemical industry coal consumption are driving this demand [8]. - On the supply side, there are expectations of reduced coal production due to regulatory changes and potential capacity cuts in key mining regions, which could further tighten supply [8]. - The report suggests that investors should consider low-entry opportunities in the coal sector, focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, as well as those with significant production capacity growth [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Operational Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of dividend policies and growth prospects for listed companies in the coal sector, indicating a focus on stable earnings and potential for future growth [12][14]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - The report provides detailed tracking of coal prices, including indices for thermal coal and coking coal, highlighting recent price movements and trends in both domestic and international markets [9][10]. 3. Coal Inventory Tracking - There is a focus on coal production levels and inventory status, with recent data showing a decrease in port coal inventories, indicating improved supply-demand dynamics [8][10]. 4. Downstream Performance in the Coal Industry - The report tracks downstream consumption patterns, including daily coal usage by power plants and trends in steel and cement prices, which are critical for understanding overall coal demand [9][10]. 5. Recent Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The report analyzes the recent performance of the coal sector, noting fluctuations in stock prices and market sentiment, while also providing forecasts for key companies [8][10].
煤炭开采板块1月9日涨1.23%,江钨装备领涨,主力资金净流出3.24亿元
Zheng Xing Xing Ye Ri Bao· 2026-01-09 09:01
Group 1 - The coal mining sector increased by 1.23% on January 9, with Jiangte Equipment leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 0.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up 1.15% [1] - Jiangte Equipment's stock price rose by 9.95% to 9.06, with a trading volume of 448,900 shares and a transaction value of 397 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Major coal companies such as China Shenhua and Xinda Zhou A also saw increases, with China Shenhua up 2.41% to 42.45 and a transaction value of 1.551 billion yuan [1] - Conversely, some companies like Dayou Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal experienced declines, with Dayou Energy down 3.23% to 8.10 and a transaction value of 859 million yuan [2] - The coal mining sector experienced a net outflow of 324 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 397 million yuan [2][3] Group 3 - Jiangte Equipment had a net inflow of 109 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors had a net outflow of 46 million yuan [3] - China Shenhua also saw a net inflow of 34.67 million yuan from major funds, with retail investors experiencing a slight outflow [3] - The overall trend indicates a mixed sentiment in the coal mining sector, with significant retail interest despite the net outflow from major funds [2][3]
煤炭行业2026年策略报告:将反内卷进行到底-20260107
Shanxi Securities· 2026-01-07 06:55
煤炭 煤炭行业 2026 年策略报告 领先大市-A(维持) 【山证煤炭】煤炭进口数据拆解:25 年 11 月进口煤价继续提升 2025.12.30 【山证煤炭】煤炭月度供需数据点评 11 月:煤价环比上涨,反内卷初心未变 2025.12.17 胡博 执业登记编码:S0760522090003 邮箱:hubo1@sxzq.com 程俊杰 执业登记编码:S0760519110005 邮箱:chengjunjie@sxzq.com 将反内卷进行到底 2026 年 1 月 7 日 行业研究/行业年度策略 投资要点: 首选股票 评级 反内卷扭转煤炭市场预期。2025 年以来,煤炭股受累于煤价下 降,108 号文流向市场后,煤炭股悲观预期随即得到显著缓释。从 核心宏观目标来说,反内卷主要是为了扭转通缩趋势,传导链条为 "通缩→反内卷→盈利提升→通胀"。对煤炭而言,短期看供给控 制,中长期看需求复苏。反内卷需要上下游维持合理利润。"政策 顶"和"政策底"推动合理煤价中枢逐步形成。2016 年供给侧改革 和 2024 年山西查三超是反内卷运动的可比事件,底层驱动影响调 控效果,供给侧改革是债务驱动,山西查三超是安全生产驱动。 ...
股市必读:山煤国际(600546)12月31日主力资金净流出269.55万元,占总成交额2.59%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-04 21:33
截至2025年12月31日收盘,山煤国际(600546)报收于10.09元,下跌0.79%,换手率0.52%,成交量10.31 万手,成交额1.04亿元。 北京市金杜律师事务所就山煤国际能源集团股份有限公司2025年第四次临时股东会的召集和召开程序、 出席人员资格、表决程序及表决结果出具法律意见书。本次股东会于2025年12月31日以现场和网络投票 方式召开,审议通过《关于2026年度日常关联交易预计的议案》。出席股东共426人,代表股份占公司 总股本的65.7599%。表决程序合法合规,表决结果合法有效。 山煤国际2025年第四次临时股东会决议公告 山煤国际能源集团股份有限公司于2025年12月31日在太原市召开2025年第四次临时股东会,会议由董事 会召集,董事、总经理付中华主持,采用现场与网络投票结合方式召开。出席会议股东共426人,代表 有表决权股份总数的65.7599%。会议审议通过《关于2026年度日常关联交易预计的议案》,关联股东 已回避表决,表决结果为同意91.1247%,反对8.6955%,弃权0.1798%。北京市金杜律师事务所对本次 会议进行了见证,认为会议召集、召开程序、出席人员资格及 ...