以金银为首的大宗商品继续下跌，上周五大跌的港股三大指数低开，恒指跌1.06%，国指跌1.35%，恒 生科技指数跌1.29%。权重科技股集体低迷，阿里巴巴、网易跌超2.4%；金银继续跳水，黄金股领衔有 色金属股下挫，其中灵宝黄金大跌近14%，中国黄金国际大跌超12%，山东黄金、紫金矿业、赤峰黄金 等多股跌超9%以上；三大运营商宣布调整电信服务增值税税率，由6%调至9%，三大电信股低开，中国 联通跌超7%。另外，生物医药股、锂电池概念股多数上涨，其中宁德时代涨近2%。(格隆汇) ...

[Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 2 日 [Table_Title] 2025 年黄金需求同比增加 8%至 4999.4 吨，投资需求同 比增加 84%至 2175.3 吨 证券研究报告|行业动态报告 [Table_Title2] 有色金属 [Table_Summary] ►供给：2025 年黄金总供应量同比增长 1%，达到 5002.3 吨 生产商一直专注于全价风险敞口，对套期保值兴趣寥寥。黄金 矿商在 2025 年同样表现亮眼。然而，市场对金价下跌的中位 数预期可能促使部分参与者提高警惕。套期保值行为正从看涨 期权卖出转向看跌期权买入——尽管规模仍相对有限——这表 明矿商希望在保留上行风险敞口的同时获得下行保护。但要将 产量提升至当前水平之上仍将面临挑战。 ►需求：2025 年黄金需求（不考虑 OTC及其他）达到 4999.4 吨，同比增长 8% 2025 年，不考虑 OTC 及其他，黄金总需求同比增长 8%至 4999.4 吨。其中金饰制造 1638.0 吨，同比减少 19%；科技用金 322.8 吨，同比减少 1%；投资需求 2175.3 吨，同比增长 84%； 央行购金 863.3 吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting a positive outlook for gold and silver prices in the medium to long term [2][4]. Core Views - The new Federal Reserve Chairman's policies have raised concerns, leading to a correction in gold and silver prices. However, the long-term trend remains bullish due to central bank gold purchases and a weakening dollar credit [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical factors and macroeconomic policies in influencing metal prices, particularly in the context of expanding domestic demand in China [8][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The SW Non-ferrous Index increased by 3.37% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% [8]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Zijin Mining, China Molybdenum, and Yunnan Aluminum, among others, with a focus on their earnings forecasts and valuations [2][8]. 2. Base Metals - Aluminum prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions and domestic production adjustments, with a notable increase in aluminum inventory [24][28]. - Copper prices are expected to remain stable, supported by a weak dollar and increased import activity, despite a generally subdued demand environment [45][48]. - Zinc prices have shown volatility due to external factors and domestic supply disruptions, with a recent increase in prices observed [49][50]. 3. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - Gold and silver prices are projected to rise in the medium term, driven by central bank purchases and a weakening dollar [2][8]. - The report highlights the potential for price increases in cobalt and nickel due to supply constraints and geopolitical factors [2][24][63]. 4. Rare Earths - The report does not provide specific insights into rare earths, focusing instead on the broader non-ferrous metals market [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights increased volatility in the metals sector due to intensified capital competition, with the non-ferrous metals index outperforming the broader market indices [2][5]. - The report suggests that the precious metals sector is poised for recovery, driven by central bank gold purchases and a favorable long-term outlook for gold prices [4][24]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are expected to see price increases due to stable supply-demand dynamics and significant infrastructure investments [4][48]. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 1.62%. In contrast, the non-ferrous metals index rose by 3.37%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.29 percentage points [5][8]. - Year-to-date, the non-ferrous metals index has increased by 22.59%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 20.94 percentage points [9]. Price Changes - The report details price fluctuations for various metals, with copper prices increasing by 0.32% and aluminum prices decreasing by 0.79% week-on-week [16]. - Precious metals saw significant price changes, with gold prices down by 1.52% and silver prices down by 17.44% [16]. Inventory Changes - Copper inventories in domestic markets decreased by 0.7 million tons, while exchange inventories increased by 2.5 million tons [33]. - Aluminum social inventories totaled 102.55 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.05 million tons [49]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Precious Metals**: The report emphasizes the potential for gold prices to rise due to increased central bank purchases and a favorable economic outlook [24]. - **Industrial Metals**: Copper demand is expected to remain strong, supported by infrastructure investments and a stable supply chain [4][33]. - **Aluminum**: The report notes a decrease in the operating rates of downstream processing enterprises, indicating potential supply constraints [48]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report recommends focusing on stable supply-demand dynamics in the new energy manufacturing sector, highlighting companies such as Huafeng Aluminum and Baowu Magnesium [4].

Group 1: Metal Sector - Shandong Gold - Shandong Gold's net profit forecast for 2026 is projected to reach CNY 108.14 billion, with a PE ratio of 25.21[10] - The company has a resource reserve of 2,058 tons and an equity reserve of 787 tons, indicating significant undervaluation potential[14] - The recovery of the Jiaoji Gold Mine is expected to contribute 10 tons of gold annually once fully operational[14] Group 2: Building Materials Sector - Oriental Yuhong - Oriental Yuhong's operating performance is expected to bottom out, with net profits projected at CNY 18 billion in 2025, increasing to CNY 29 billion by 2027[21] - The company plans to increase revenue through retail price hikes of 3-4% and overseas expansion, potentially adding CNY 25 billion in revenue from international operations[21] - The domestic construction materials market is expected to see a 47% decline in sales area compared to 2021, leading to significant supply exit in the sector[18] Group 3: Transportation Sector - ZTO Express - ZTO Express is expected to achieve a net profit of CNY 104.45 billion in 2026, with a PE ratio of 11.80[10] - The company has improved its cash flow, with cash reserves exceeding CNY 300 billion and a debt ratio below 30%[44] - The competitive landscape in the express delivery sector is stabilizing, with a focus on improving profitability and operational efficiency[43]

Market Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend around the Spring Festival in February 2026, with a focus on the "Technology + Resources" mainline market[3] - Key attention should be given to the earnings reports of US tech stocks and the potential validation of AI industry trends[3] Investment Strategy - Focus on three main lines: - Technology sector, including optical modules, storage, semiconductor equipment, and energy storage, addressing the issues of electricity shortages in the US, chip shortages domestically, and global storage shortages[3] - Non-ferrous metals, with increased volatility expected after January, particularly in industrial metals and chemicals[3] - Hot topics such as robots participating in the Spring Festival Gala and updates on AI large models[3] Recommended Stocks - **Metals**: Shandong Gold (EPS: 1.78, PE: 30.6 in 2026E)[20] - **Chemicals**: Juhua Co. (EPS: 2.51, PE: 15.7 in 2026E)[20] - **New Energy**: Junda Co. (EPS: 1.67, PE: 60.5 in 2026E)[20] - **Machinery**: Dier Laser (EPS: 2.87, PE: 30.6 in 2026E)[20] - **Military Industry**: Aero Engine Corporation (EPS: 0.35, PE: 132.9 in 2026E)[20] - **Non-Banking**: New China Life (EPS: 10.68, PE: 7.8 in 2026E)[20] - **Automotive**: Top Group (EPS: 1.92, PE: 37.7 in 2026E)[20] - **Electronics**: Jingce Electronics (EPS: 1.15, PE: 115.3 in 2026E)[20] - **Communication**: Zhongji Xuchuang (EPS: 17.40, PE: 37.3 in 2026E)[20] - **Media**: Giant Network (EPS: 2.12, PE: 20.8 in 2026E)[20] Risk Factors - Economic recovery may fall short of expectations, leading to slow growth or stagnation due to factors like slow job growth and reduced market demand[22] - Significant changes in individual stock fundamentals could lead to substantial declines in revenue or net profit[22]

新京报贝壳财经讯 2月1日，据Choice数据统计，包括紫金矿业、中金黄金、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、湖 南黄金和西部黄金在内的6家黄金上市公司披露2025年度业绩预告。其中，紫金矿业2025年净利润同比 预增59%-62%；中金黄金Q4净利预计环比增长14%-75%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - As of January 30, 2025, a total of 3,056 A-share listed companies have disclosed their earnings forecasts, with 1,095 companies expecting positive results, indicating a recovery in various industries such as non-ferrous metals, automotive, chemicals, and semiconductors [1][2][7]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - 1,095 companies are expected to report positive earnings, with 83 showing slight increases, 374 turning losses into profits, 13 maintaining profitability, and 625 forecasting significant growth [8]. - Among the companies with significant growth, Ningbo Fubang expects a net profit of 50 million to 70 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 3,099.59% to 4,379.43% [1][8]. - 619 companies anticipate a net profit of over 100 million yuan, with 136 expecting over 1 billion yuan, including major firms like Zijin Mining and China Shenhua [2][8]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals, automotive, chemicals, and semiconductor industries are showing signs of recovery, with leading companies performing particularly well [2][9]. - Companies such as Shandong Gold and Western Gold are forecasting significant profit increases, with Shandong Gold expecting a net profit of 4.6 billion to 4.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56% to 66% [12]. - East China Semiconductor reported that niche memory prices are rising due to supply constraints, positively impacting their business outlook [9]. Group 3: Specific Company Highlights - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89.5% to 128.17%, driven by strong demand for computing infrastructure [3][10]. - New Yisheng anticipates a net profit of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 231.24% to 248.86% due to increased demand for high-speed products [10]. - Tianfu Communication forecasts a net profit of approximately 1.88 billion to 2.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 60%, benefiting from the growth of the AI industry and global data center construction [11].

Core Viewpoint - The market for gold and silver has experienced significant declines, with spot gold dropping over 4% and spot silver falling more than 5%, indicating a bearish trend in precious metals [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Spot gold is reported at $5,139.38 per ounce after a daily decline of over 4% [4]. - Spot silver is currently priced at $108.90 per ounce, reflecting a drop of more than 5% [4]. - The A-share market opened lower, with all three major indices declining by over 1%, led by the gold and base metals sectors [4]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Several gold and silver-related stocks have hit the daily limit down, including companies like 盛达资源 (Shengda Resources) and 中金黄金 (Zhongjin Gold), which both saw a 10% drop [4][5]. - Specific stock performances include: - 晓程科技 (Xiaocheng Technology) down 19.92% with a trading volume of 2.289 billion [5]. - 贵研铂业 (Guiyan Platinum) down 10.01% with a trading volume of 1.031 billion [5]. - 山东黄金 (Shandong Gold) down 10% with a trading volume of 3.775 billion [6]. Group 3: Risk Announcements - Multiple companies, including 白银有色 (Baiyin Yese) and 招金黄金 (Zhaojin Gold), issued risk warnings due to the volatility in precious metals prices [6][9]. - The domestic prices of gold jewelry have also seen a decline, with major brands like 周生生 (Chow Sang Sang) and 周大福 (Chow Tai Fook) adjusting their prices [6].

Group 1 - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump has sparked hawkish expectations, leading to a significant sell-off in the global precious metals market, with silver dropping over 35% and gold nearly 13% [3][5] - The Federal Reserve's policy framework may see a notable shift if Warsh assumes leadership, as Deutsche Bank suggests a unique combination of "rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" could emerge under his guidance [3] - The U.S. Treasury Department reported a projected decline in national fiscal revenue for 2025, with total revenue expected to be 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year [4] Group 2 - The World Trade Organization ruled that U.S. clean energy subsidy measures violate WTO rules in the dispute initiated by China regarding the Inflation Reduction Act [4] - The China-UK economic relationship is set to deepen with the signing of four economic cooperation documents, focusing on "Export to China" initiatives and service trade agreements [4] - The Panama Supreme Court ruled that the contract for the operation of ports along the Panama Canal held by CK Hutchison is invalid, prompting a response from the Chinese government to protect its legitimate rights [4] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is working to enhance the attractiveness and flexibility of refinancing systems to support the capital market's stable growth [6] - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.96% and significant sell-offs in gold stocks [6] - The CSRC is revising the registration management measures for listed companies to clarify the types of strategic investors and enforce a minimum holding requirement of 5% [6] Group 4 - The regulatory body has issued new guidelines for fund sales and marketing practices, prohibiting collaborations with unqualified internet influencers and requiring the removal of misleading features from fund platforms [7] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is addressing issues related to the surge in IPO applications expected in 2025, highlighting deficiencies in the preparation of listing documents [8] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is monitoring stocks with abnormal fluctuations and has reported several cases of suspected violations to the CSRC [8]