提价带动归母净利回升，分红比例维持稳定 目标价：27.36 元 公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 海螺水泥（600585）2024 年报点评 推荐（维持） 事项： 公司发布 2024 年业绩报告，实现营收 910.30 亿元，同比下降 35.51%；归母净 利润为 76.96 亿元，同比下降 26.19%；扣非归母净利润为 73.65 亿元，同比下 降 26.06%。 评论： 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，成本上涨超预期等。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 91,030 | 92,967 | 94,204 | 96,073 | | 同比增速(%) | -35.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 7,696 | 9,666 | 11,175 | 12,126 | | 同比增速(%) | -26.2% | 25.6% | 15.6% | 8.5% | | 每股盈利(元) | 1.45 ...

2025 年 4 月 6 日 公司研究 24 年盈利底部或已明确，25 年公司利润有望回升 ——海螺水泥（600585.SH/0914.HK）2024 年年报点评报告 A 股：买入（维持） 当前价：24.16 元 H 股：买入（维持） 当前价：22.2 港元 作者 分析师：孙伟风 执业证书编号：S0930516110003 021-52523822 sunwf@ebscn.com 分析师：陈奇凡 执业证书编号：S0930523050002 021-52523819 chenqf@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 52.99 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 1280.31 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 19.53/28.75 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 17.10% | 股价相对走势 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 03/24 06/24 09/24 12/24 03/25 海螺水泥 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | 4. ...

公司公布2024 年报。2024 年，公司实现收入910.30 亿元，同比-35.51%，归母净利润76.96 亿元，同 比-26.19%；对应Q4 实现收入228.79 亿元，同比-45.47%，归母净利润24.98 亿元，同比+42.08%。 2024 水泥供需整体承压，Q4 水泥格局好转价格上行。公司业绩略低于预期。2024 年全年，由于地产及 基建需求承压，全年水泥行业价格承压。根据披露数据测算，2024 年，公司自产自销水泥及熟料2.68亿 吨，同比-6.05%，平均售价245.7 元/吨，同比-27.7 元/吨，由于煤炭价格下行，吨成本同比下降17.9 元/ 吨至187.1 元/吨，但吨毛利同比仍下滑9.8 元/吨至58.6 元/吨。除水泥销量价格下降外，建材贸易业务收 入同比降低60%也是收入下滑原因之一。2024Q4，由于水泥价格上涨，从而使得Q4 单季度归母净利润 同比增加。 华南及西部地区表现相对较优。分区域来看，南部及西部区域收入同比下降8.64%/4.13%，是下降相对 较少的地区，判断主要因为粤港澳大湾区及西部大开发重点建设工程对需求产生较好支撑作用。 分红率总体保持平稳。2024 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in cement prices in the eastern region, which is anticipated to support profit growth due to improved pricing dynamics [19][24] - The company has maintained a strong financial position with a net debt ratio of -22% as of the end of 2024, indicating robust operational resilience [4] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 91,030 million in 2024, with a decline of 35.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 7,696 million, down 26.2% year-on-year [7] - For 2025, the expected earnings per share (EPS) is RMB 1.88, with a gradual increase to RMB 2.29 by 2027 [5] Market Dynamics - The eastern and central regions account for over 50% of the company's main revenue, and the recovery in these areas is crucial for profit generation [2] - The company has seen a significant increase in cement prices, with a 15% year-on-year rise in the price of PO42.5 bulk cement in the eastern region as of March 28, 2025 [24] Operational Efficiency - The company has successfully reduced capital expenditures, with planned reductions of 18% and 20% for 2023 and 2024, respectively, and a further 23% reduction planned for 2025 [4] - The company has achieved a comprehensive cost of RMB 187.25 per ton for self-produced cement clinker, which is lower than its domestic peers [61] International Expansion - The company has expanded its overseas production capacity, with 11 operational clinker production lines generating approximately 16.5 million tons annually, representing 6% of its total global capacity [3][39] - The overseas business has shown stable profitability, with a significant increase in profit from RMB 1.1 billion in 2023 to RMB 2.3 billion in 2024 [42] Aggregate Business Development - The company has increased its aggregate production capacity to 163 million tons by the end of 2024, with plans for further expansion in 2025 [48] - The aggregate business has generated revenue of RMB 4.69 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.4% [51]

Core Points - The stock price of Conch Cement (600585) closed at 24.6 yuan, down 1.28% from the previous week, with a total market capitalization of 130.36 billion yuan [1] - Conch Cement's 2024 annual report shows a main revenue of 91.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.696 billion yuan, down 26.19% [2][5] - The number of shareholders decreased by 1,729 to 219,500, a reduction of 0.78%, with an average shareholding value of 423,800 yuan [3][5] - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.71 yuan per share for 2024, with total cash dividends amounting to approximately 3.91 billion yuan, representing 50.78% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4][5] Financial Performance - Main revenue for Q4 2024 was 22.879 billion yuan, down 45.53% year-on-year, while net profit for the same quarter was 2.498 billion yuan, up 42.27% [2] - The company's debt ratio stands at 21.31%, with investment income of 297 million yuan and financial expenses of -1.171 billion yuan, resulting in a gross profit margin of 21.7% [2] Shareholder Information - As of February 28, 2025, the average number of shares held per shareholder increased from 18,100 to 18,200 [3]

Summary of Anhui Conch Cement Co. Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Anhui Conch Cement Co. Ltd - **Industry**: Cement and Clinker - **Region**: Asia Pacific Key Financial Results - **4Q24 Performance**: - Net profit of Rmb1.5 billion, representing a 42% increase YoY and a 33% increase QoQ [1] - Full year 2024 net profit of Rmb7.7 billion, down 26% YoY, below consensus estimate of Rmb8.6 billion [1] - Dividend proposed at Rmb0.71 per share, maintaining a payout ratio of 49% YoY [1] Shipment and Production Data - **Total Shipments**: - 271 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 7.5% YoY [2] - 4Q24 shipments of self-produced products at 73 million tons, down 11% YoY but up 5% QoQ [2] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: - ASP for self-produced cement and clinker was Rmb246 per ton in 2024, down 10% YoY [3] - Estimated ASP in 4Q24 at Rmb265 per ton, an increase of 8% YoY and 12% QoQ [3] Cost and Profitability - **Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)**: - Production cost rose by Rmb7 per ton QoQ despite stable coal prices [3] - **Gross Profit**: - Estimated unit gross profit in 4Q24 at Rmb75 per ton, up from Rmb55 in 4Q23 and Rmb53 in 3Q24 [3] 2025 Guidance - **Capacity Expansion**: - Targeting an addition of 19.6 million tons of cement and 27.8 million square meters of concrete capacity in 2025 [4] - **Shipments**: - Expected total shipments of self-produced cement and clinker to remain flat at 268 million tons YoY [4] - **Capital Expenditure**: - Budgeted capex of Rmb11.9 billion for 2025, down from Rmb15.6 billion in 2024 [4] Market Outlook and Risks - **Market Rating**: - Stock rating is Overweight with a price target of HK$24.50, indicating a 4% upside from the current price of HK$23.60 [6] - **Risks to Upside**: - Stronger-than-expected infrastructure demand from major projects [10] - Stricter environmental regulations leading to tighter clinker supplies [10] - **Risks to Downside**: - Weaker-than-expected property demand and potential government intervention in cement pricing [11][15] Additional Insights - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately Rmb128.273 billion [6] - **Average Daily Trading Value**: HK$152 million [6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecast**: - EPS for 2024 estimated at Rmb1.66, with projections of Rmb2.11 for 2025 [6] This summary encapsulates the critical financial metrics, operational insights, and market outlook for Anhui Conch Cement Co. Ltd, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors and stakeholders.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [3] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's profitability is expected to improve as the industry stabilizes, despite a significant decline in revenue and profit in 2024 due to a downturn in the cement market and real estate sector [3][5] - The cement industry is anticipated to experience a "bottoming out" and recovery in 2025, supported by infrastructure demand and government efforts to stabilize the real estate market [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 91.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 35.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.70 billion yuan, down 26.19% year-on-year [3][5] - The company's total cement and clinker sales volume in 2024 was 27.1 million tons, a decrease of 7.46% compared to the previous year [5] Industry Outlook - The cement industry in 2024 faced significant challenges, with a 10.6% year-on-year decline in real estate investment leading to a 9.5% drop in national cement production [5] - The report forecasts a recovery in the cement industry in 2025, driven by continued demand from infrastructure projects and stricter supply-side reforms [5][6] Growth Projections - The company is expected to focus on its core cement business and international expansion, with projected revenue growth rates of 2.48%, 7.52%, and 6.05% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6] - Estimated revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 93.29 billion yuan, 100.30 billion yuan, and 106.36 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 9.87 billion yuan, 10.73 billion yuan, and 11.02 billion yuan [6][7] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the company are projected to be 13.0, 12.0, and 11.7 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, compared to the average P/E of 14.7 for comparable companies [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (首次覆盖) [3] Core Views - The report indicates that the company's profitability is expected to improve as the industry stabilizes, despite a significant decline in revenue and profit in 2024 due to a downturn in the cement market and real estate sector [3][5] - The cement industry is anticipated to experience a "bottoming out and recovery" trend in 2025, supported by infrastructure demand and ongoing supply-side reforms [5][6] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 91.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 35.51% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.70 billion yuan, down 26.19% year-on-year [3] Industry Outlook - The cement industry faced a significant downturn in 2024, with a 10.6% decrease in real estate investment leading to a 9.5% drop in national cement production [5] - The report forecasts a recovery in 2025, driven by continued infrastructure demand and government efforts to stabilize the real estate market [5] Company Strategy - The company is focusing on strengthening its core cement business while expanding internationally and integrating its upstream and downstream operations [5] - Key projects include the establishment of overseas offices and the commissioning of new production facilities in various countries [5] Financial Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 2.48% for 2025, with expected revenues of 93.29 billion yuan, and net profit of 9.87 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery trend [6][7] - The report estimates a PE ratio of 13.0 for 2025, compared to an average of 14.7 for comparable companies [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [12] Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue for 2024, with total revenue of 91.03 billion yuan, down 35.51% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.696 billion yuan, down 26.19% year-on-year. However, Q4 showed signs of recovery with a net profit of 2.498 billion yuan, up 42.27% year-on-year despite a revenue decline of 45.53% [4][5] - The company has strengthened its production scheduling, leading to a notable improvement in profitability in Q4, with a gross margin increase of 15.7 percentage points to 28.2% [5] - The company’s market share in cement production has continued to rise, with self-produced cement sales of 26.8 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 6.1% year-on-year, while the national cement production fell by 9.5% [5] - For 2025, demand is expected to improve slightly, supported by increased infrastructure spending and the issuance of special bonds, which may enhance overall demand for cement [5] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% from 2025 to 2027, with a strong cash flow of 18.5 billion yuan in 2024 and planned capital expenditures of 11.98 billion yuan for 2025 [6] - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are 103.7 billion yuan and 105.4 billion yuan, respectively, with expected net profits of 9.378 billion yuan and 9.772 billion yuan, indicating growth rates of 21.9% and 4.2% [6][8] Financial Summary - The company’s total market capitalization is 128.7 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 5.299 billion shares and a circulating share capital of 4 billion shares [3] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is 12.33, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 19.6% [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 1.77 yuan and 1.84 yuan, respectively [8][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 37.33 CNY, while the current price is 24.29 CNY [1][5][12]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 annual report meets expectations, with significant recovery in gross profit per ton of cement in Q4 2024, reflecting the price increase effects in East China. The reduction in capital expenditures further optimizes cash flow, and dividend expectations are likely to rise [2][12]. - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 91.03 billion CNY, down 35.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.696 billion CNY, down 26.2% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue was 22.879 billion CNY, down 45.53% year-on-year, while net profit was 2.498 billion CNY, up 42.27% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [12]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: 2023A: 141.157 billion CNY, 2024A: 91.030 billion CNY, 2025E: 92.609 billion CNY [4][13]. - **Net Profit (attributable to shareholders)**: 2023A: 10.428 billion CNY, 2024A: 7.696 billion CNY, 2025E: 10.403 billion CNY [4][13]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: 2023A: 1.97 CNY, 2024A: 1.45 CNY, 2025E: 1.96 CNY [4][13]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: 2023A: 5.6%, 2024A: 4.1%, 2025E: 5.4% [4][13]. - **Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E)**: 2023A: 12.58, 2024A: 17.04, 2025E: 12.61 [4][13]. Market Position - The company maintained a leading market share in cement delivery rates throughout the year, despite a decline in sales volume in Q4 2024, indicating a stable market position as a leading enterprise [12]. - The average selling price of self-produced cement and clinker in 2024 was 246 CNY per ton, down 28 CNY per ton year-on-year, with a gross profit of 59 CNY per ton, down 9 CNY per ton year-on-year [12]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to significantly reduce capital expenditures, with cash payments for fixed assets and other long-term assets amounting to 11.3 billion CNY in 2024, a substantial reduction compared to previous years. The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 50% for 2025-2027, indicating an improvement in cash flow and dividend expectations [12].