Investment Rating - The investment rating for the consumer staples sector in China is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Moutai, Wuliangye, and others [1]. Core Insights - Premium baijiu wholesale prices have rebounded month-on-month, while discounts on liquid milk and condiments have narrowed [1][11]. - The report highlights the resilience of consumer stocks amidst a volatile market, emphasizing their value [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Baijiu Pricing - Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) are 1700 and 1650 yuan respectively, with month-on-month increases of +100 and +70 yuan. Year-to-date changes are +100 and +60 yuan, but year-on-year changes are -530 and -560 yuan [10][40]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price remains stable at 830 yuan, with a year-to-date increase of +10 yuan and a year-on-year decrease of -105 yuan [4][40]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 price is 870 yuan, up by +20 yuan month-on-month and +20 yuan year-to-date, with a year-on-year increase of +10 yuan [4][40]. - Other notable prices include Shanxi Fenjiu and various products from Yanghe and Gujing Gongjiu, showing mixed trends in pricing [10][40]. Discounts on Consumer Products - Discounts on liquid milk products have decreased from an average of 62.8% to 61.4% and from 63.4% to 61.7% for median values [19][37]. - Discounts on condiments have also narrowed from 87.1% to 85.0% (average) and from 88.2% to 84.9% (median) [19][37]. - Conversely, discounts on convenience foods have slightly increased, with average discounts moving from 94.8% to 94.6% [20][37]. - Beer, soft drinks, and infant formula discounts have remained stable, with slight variations in average and median rates [21][38].

2026.02.26 本文字数：1062，阅读时长大约2分钟 此前，帝亚吉欧管理层公布了一项"加速计划"用于恢复增长，其中也包括计划处置部分非核心资产。受此影响，水井坊在2025年底屡屡传出将被 出售的消息，但随即水井坊官方予以了否认。 作者 |第一财经栾立 中国酒业消费尚未走出深度调整期，洋酒巨头们的日子同样不好过。 近日，世界酒业巨头帝亚吉欧公布了截至2025年12月31日的2026上半财年报告。受中美市场表现拖累，帝亚吉欧半年销售额为105亿美元，同比下 降2.8%。在业绩说明会上，帝亚吉欧管理层再次回应了出售水井坊的传言。 帝亚吉欧管理层表示，上半财年欧洲、拉丁美洲和加勒比海地区、非洲等区域的销售业绩实现了较好增长，而集团业绩的下滑主要受美国烈酒和 中国白酒业务的影响。其中，中国白酒销售的持续下滑对亚太区域市场销售有所冲击，该区域销售额同比下降11%。如果剔除中国白酒业务的影 响，集团净销售额降幅将收窄至同比下降0.5%。 帝亚吉欧的白酒业务主要是此前收购的水井坊（600779.SH）。此前公布的业绩预告显示，2025年水井坊预计实现归母净利润3.9亿元，同比下降 71%；预计实现营业收入30.4亿元 ...

中国酒业消费尚未走出深度调整期，洋酒巨头们的日子同样不好过。 近日，世界酒业巨头帝亚吉欧公布了截至2025年12月31日的2026上半财年报告。受中美市场表现拖累， 帝亚吉欧半年销售额为105亿美元，同比下降2.8%。在业绩说明会上，帝亚吉欧管理层再次回应了出售 水井坊的传言。 帝亚吉欧管理层表示，上半财年欧洲、拉丁美洲和加勒比海地区、非洲等区域的销售业绩实现了较好增 长，而集团业绩的下滑主要受美国烈酒和中国白酒业务的影响。其中，中国白酒销售的持续下滑对亚太 区域市场销售有所冲击，该区域销售额同比下降11%。如果剔除中国白酒业务的影响，集团净销售额降 幅将收窄至同比下降0.5%。 帝亚吉欧的白酒业务主要是此前收购的水井坊（600779.SH）。此前公布的业绩预告显示，2025年水井 坊预计实现归母净利润3.9亿元，同比下降71%；预计实现营业收入30.4亿元，同比下降42%。 帝亚吉欧管理层也表示，白酒业务的业绩变化与中国宏观经济、市场政策变化有关。此外，2026年中国 农历春节日期较晚，销售数据的错位比较也带来一定影响。 记者了解到，一般春节备货会提前1至2个月进行。今年春节在2月中旬，备货时间较晚，这也会 ...

Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry is rated as stable for 2025 and 2026 [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry in China includes various sub-industries such as agriculture, food processing, and beverage manufacturing, closely linked to economic development, population structure, and consumer preferences. Despite ongoing economic pressures and weak consumer demand, the industry continues to grow, although revenue growth rates are declining and profitability is weakening [1][6] - The agricultural sector shows a steady increase in grain planting area and production, with major crops like rice, wheat, and corn maintaining a balance between supply and demand. However, some crop prices are under pressure due to supply-demand dynamics and international trade conditions [24][25] - The food manufacturing sector is experiencing stable growth, with overall profitability remaining flat. The industry is characterized by increasing fixed asset investments and a slight increase in total assets [52][53] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The food and beverage industry has a total asset value of 8.42 trillion yuan at the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.59%. The industry’s revenue for 2024 is 9.07 trillion yuan, showing a slight decline of 0.20% year-on-year [7][11] - By the end of September 2025, the industry’s total assets increased to 8.61 trillion yuan, with a revenue of 6.71 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.75% [7][11] 2. Agricultural Sector - The agricultural sector's total output value reached 162,787.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%. The grain planting area for 2024 and 2025 is projected to be 11,931.9 million hectares and 11,940.9 million hectares, respectively [24][25] - Grain production is expected to increase, with total grain output for 2024 and 2025 estimated at 70.65 million tons and 71.49 million tons, respectively [27] 3. Feed Industry - The feed industry is experiencing growth in production, influenced by the recovery of the livestock sector. The total industrial feed production for 2024 is 31,503.1 million tons, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.1% [45] - The feed prices are expected to remain low due to fluctuations in raw material prices and weak downstream demand [49] 4. Food Manufacturing - The food manufacturing sector continues to grow, with total assets reaching 2.41 trillion yuan by September 2025, reflecting a 4% increase year-on-year. The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 is 1.63 trillion yuan, with a slight decrease in profit margins [52][53] 5. Livestock Industry - The livestock sector is under pressure, with pork prices gradually declining. The production of beef is increasing, while sheep meat production is decreasing due to weak demand [56][58] - The overall production of meat is expected to grow, with pork production for 2024 and 2025 estimated at 5,706.03 million tons and 5,938 million tons, respectively [58]

24 February 2026 | 12:16AM HKT Equity Research China Consumer Staples: LNY expert calls: Spirits: Moutai/Wuliangye pivoting to recovery path; Dairy saw disciplined pricing yet unexciting On Feb 23, we hosted an expert call with a large spirits and F&B distributor located in Hunan province. Key highlights: 1) Spirits: Feitian Moutai volume/pricing topped expectations during the CNY period in the expert's region, with Feitian Moutai spirits retail sales volume up >20% yoy offsetting shipment control on non-st ...

23 February 2026 | 1:39AM HKT Equity Research China Spirits Tracker: 2026 LNY retail sales slightly better than expected; Resilient super premium with Moutai/Wuliangye LNY consumption sentiments: Pax mobility: The pax mobility for LNY holiday (Feb 15 - 21), up by c.9% yoy and the whole Chunyun window recorded 5.3bn (Feb 2-20). Strong homecoming flows translated into robust on-premise activity: daily average sales of key retail and catering enterprises rose +10.6% yoy over the first two holiday days (MOFCOM) ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival consumption exceeded expectations, with service consumption leading the growth, driven by a significant increase in dining and travel demand [2][7] - The report highlights a notable recovery in the travel sector, with an expected total of 9.5 billion people traveling during the Spring Festival, marking a historical high [10][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of quality and experience in consumer spending, with a shift towards premium products and services [7][19] Summary by Sections 1. Spring Festival Consumption Trends - The Spring Festival holiday from February 15 to 23, 2026, saw a "good start" in consumption, with key retail and dining enterprises reporting a 10.6% increase in average daily sales compared to the same period in 2025 [10][22] - The first four days of the holiday recorded an 8.6% increase in average daily sales for key retail and dining enterprises compared to the previous year [10][19] - Government initiatives, including a 20.5 billion yuan fund for consumer subsidies, significantly boosted consumer spending [11][10] 2. Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) Market - The Baijiu market showed signs of improvement, with a narrowing decline compared to previous major holidays, although brand differentiation became more pronounced [27][30] - High-end Baijiu brands like Moutai and Wuliangye continued to lead the market, with a focus on price elasticity and rational consumer behavior [27][30] - The report identifies three key changes in the Baijiu market: increased importance of personal consumption, a more relaxed approach from manufacturers regarding sales targets, and improved channel sentiment [30][31] 3. Snack and Food Market - The snack market is expected to benefit from an extended peak season, with a longer preparation and sales cycle compared to 2025 [33][34] - Offline channels, particularly membership-based supermarkets and discount stores, are performing better than online channels, with significant growth in sales during the holiday period [34][35] - The report notes a diversification in snack offerings, with strong performance in high-quality nut gift boxes and innovative packaging strategies enhancing brand visibility [35][36]

来源：江苏经济报 来源：江苏经济报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a downturn, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) declining by 1.19% as of the close on February 12, 2026, reflecting weak performance in key stocks like liquor and consumer goods [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF opened weakly and continued to fluctuate at low levels, closing down 1.19% [1][8]. - Key stocks in the sector, including Jinhe Industrial, Gujing Gongjiu, and Wuliangye, saw declines of over 2%, while major brands like Kweichow Moutai and Yanghe also fell by more than 1% [1][8]. Group 2: Liquor Pricing Trends - The price of Feitian Moutai has been rising, with the latest reported prices on February 12, 2026, showing the original box price at 1,700 yuan and the loose bottle price at 1,660 yuan [3][10]. - The liquor industry is showing a divergence in performance, with demand concentrating on leading brands, particularly Kweichow Moutai, which is benefiting from marketing reforms and strong customer engagement through the iMoutai app [3][10]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts predict that the liquor channel has reached a bottom, with expectations for a rebound post-Spring Festival, marking a favorable time for annual investment [4][11]. - The industry is currently at a low valuation, with the Huabao ETF's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.58, placing it in the 9.2% percentile of the last decade, indicating a potential opportunity for long-term investment [3][11]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF is recommended for investors, with approximately 60% of its portfolio allocated to leading high-end and mid-range liquor brands, and nearly 40% to other segments like beverages and dairy [5][11]. - The ETF provides a way for investors to access core assets in the food and beverage sector, with a focus on companies with strong performance and dividend potential [4][11].

Core Viewpoint - The overall sales of liquor during the Spring Festival period are expected to decline by 8%, which is better than previous pessimistic forecasts, with varying performance across different consumption categories [1]. Group 1: Consumption Environment - The Spring Festival sales have fully commenced, with an overall expected decline of 8% in liquor sales during this period [1]. - Gift consumption (mass premium) is expected to see slight growth, while business consumption is projected to decline by 20% [1]. - Residential consumption is expected to remain flat with slight growth, and government consumption is anticipated to drop by 90% [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - **Kweichow Moutai**: The return of funds for the March flying Moutai is not fully completed, with zero inventory and low channel stocking willingness, focusing more on turnover rates. The post-holiday price is expected to stabilize at 1550 yuan [1]. - **Wuliangye**: Current shipments are up by 30% year-on-year, with sales performance showing a 10% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - **Luzhou Laojiao**: The current return progress for Guojiao 1573 is at 35%, with approximately three months of inventory. However, both shipment and sales are down by over 30% and 25% respectively, despite stable pricing [1]. - **Honghua Lang**: Currently, sales are up by 9% year-on-year [2]. - **Jian Nan Chun**: Sales are flat year-on-year [2]. - **Shede and Shui Jing Fang**: Both brands have seen slight declines despite low base comparisons [2].