Core Viewpoint - The company, Shui Jing Fang (600779), confirmed that there are no undisclosed significant information regarding major events such as asset restructuring, share issuance, or major transactions as of the current date [1] Group 1 - The company responded to investor inquiries on its interactive platform [1] - The company has communicated with its controlling shareholder, Sichuan Chengdu Shui Jing Fang Group Co., Ltd., and its actual controller, Diageo, regarding the status of disclosures [1] - There are no significant matters pending disclosure, including but not limited to major asset restructuring, share issuance, major transactions, business restructuring, share buybacks, bankruptcy reorganization, major business cooperation, or introduction of strategic investors [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry [5] Core Insights - The liquor industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with the "opening red" sales expected to remain under pressure year-on-year, while brand differentiation is evident. Positive feedback from high-end liquor is significantly boosting market confidence, and a shift in style and improved expectations may catalyze liquor stock prices [2][6] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The liquor market is experiencing a deep adjustment, with sales and revenue expected to decline throughout the year. However, there are signs of marginal improvement starting from Q4 2025, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye leading the market [6] High-End Liquor Performance - High-end liquor brands are showing resilience, with Moutai and Wuliangye implementing strategies to stabilize prices and enhance channel profits. Moutai's sales performance has improved, with significant user engagement and order volume [6][7] Stock Recommendations - The report recommends stocks with price elasticity, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as other brands like Shanxi Fenjiu and Yingjia Gongjiu, which are expected to clear inventory [6][7] Future Outlook - The liquor industry is believed to be at the bottom of its current cycle, with potential catalysts for stock prices including improvements in sales, price increases, and inventory reduction. Positive signals from policy changes could further enhance market sentiment [6][7]

Group 1 - The stock of Huangtai Liquor Industry has hit the daily limit down, indicating significant market distress [1] - Shede Liquor, Jiugui Liquor, and Jinhui Liquor have all seen declines exceeding 3%, reflecting a broader downturn in the sector [1] - Other companies such as Gujing Gongjiu, Jinzizijiu, Jinshiyuan, and Shui Jing Fang have also experienced declines, suggesting a widespread negative sentiment in the liquor industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the new low-alcohol product "Zhenxin Zhenyi Qingyang 29°" by Shuijingfang aims to meet the evolving social needs of consumers, particularly the younger generation, who are seeking meaningful connections and quality experiences in their social interactions [5][12][25]. Group 1: Product Launch and Features - Shuijingfang introduced "Zhenxin Zhenyi Qingyang 29°" at an event on February 3, emphasizing its alignment with modern consumer demands and the brand's 600-year brewing heritage [5][6][12]. - The product features a unique bottle design that symbolizes renewal and warmth, reflecting the brand's commitment to quality and innovation [6][21]. - The new low-alcohol beverage is designed to cater to various social settings, such as gatherings and outdoor activities, providing a refined choice for consumers who value quality interactions [12][21]. Group 2: Strategic Partnership with JD.com - Shuijingfang has deepened its collaboration with JD.com, a trusted platform for consumers purchasing premium liquor, enhancing the distribution and accessibility of its products [9][12][33]. - Since the partnership began in 2014, Shuijingfang's sales on JD.com have seen significant growth, surpassing 200 million yuan in 2023 [12][33]. - The collaboration aims to leverage JD.com's extensive user base and logistics capabilities to ensure timely delivery and quality assurance for consumers [33]. Group 3: Consumer Insights and Market Trends - Recent consumer research indicates a shift among younger individuals towards deeper relationships, prioritizing quality over quantity in social interactions [16][29]. - The product "Zhenxin Zhenyi Qingyang 29°" is a response to this trend, designed to facilitate intimate gatherings and meaningful conversations [16][29]. - The brand's approach reflects a broader industry trend of adapting to new consumer preferences, focusing on emotional connections and quality experiences [25][29].

Core Viewpoint - Water Margin's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.05% and a year-to-date increase of 10.69%, indicating mixed market sentiment towards the company [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Water Margin reported a revenue of 2.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 326 million yuan, down 71.02% compared to the previous year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 5.378 billion yuan, with 1.28 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Water Margin is 80,500, a decrease of 5.58% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 5.91% to 6,053 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable entities such as the China Securities White Wine Index A and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, with varying changes in their holdings [3]. Market Activity - Water Margin's stock has seen significant trading activity, with a turnover of 344 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.64% on February 5, 2025 [1]. - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the most recent occurrence on February 2 [1]. Business Overview - Water Margin, established on December 21, 1993, and listed on December 6, 1996, is primarily engaged in the production and sale of high-end liquor, with 87.10% of its revenue coming from high-end products [1]. - The company operates within the food and beverage sector, specifically in the liquor industry, and is categorized under various investment themes including white liquor and mid-cap stocks [1].

Core Viewpoint - Water Jiufang is facing significant challenges in its development, with a substantial decline in its financial performance for 2025, indicating a critical period for the company [1][8]. Financial Performance - Water Jiufang expects to achieve an operating revenue of 3.038 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 2.179 billion yuan, representing a 42% year-on-year decline [1][8]. - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 392 million yuan, down by 949 million yuan, which is a 71% year-on-year decrease [1][8]. - The projected revenue for 2025 marks the lowest since 2021, while the net profit is the lowest since 2018 [8]. Market Context - The white liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase due to multiple factors, including macroeconomic conditions, industry adjustments, and policy changes, leading to a high inventory level [8]. - Water Jiufang is particularly affected by competition from leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, which are expanding into the mid-range market, thereby increasing pressure on Water Jiufang's pricing [9]. Strategic Response - In response to the challenging environment, Water Jiufang is focusing on strengthening the synergy between online and offline channels, actively managing its operations, and maintaining investments in brand building and product innovation [5][9]. - The company is implementing measures to optimize market structure, improve cost efficiency, and enhance productivity while preparing for future competitiveness [5]. Ownership and Management Changes - There are rumors regarding the potential sale of Water Jiufang's shares by its foreign controlling shareholder, Diageo, which is considering various options to streamline its global business portfolio [4][12]. - Diageo currently holds 63.27% of Water Jiufang's shares, but the frequent changes in management have raised concerns about the stability of the company's strategic execution [12]. Potential Acquirers - Speculation about potential buyers for Water Jiufang includes other well-known liquor brands, with the possibility of these companies using Water Jiufang as a platform for expansion rather than focusing on its brand growth [13]. - The Sichuan Liquor Group has expressed interest in acquiring Water Jiufang, which could help it strengthen its market position and align with regional industry consolidation efforts [15].

Core Viewpoint - Water Margin's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.03% and a total market value of 20.963 billion yuan, while the company has experienced a year-to-date stock price increase of 11.80% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of February 4, Water Margin's stock price was 43.00 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 3.56 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.67% [1] - The stock has increased by 12.65% over the last five trading days and decreased by 0.83% over the last 60 days [1] - The company has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (top trading list) once this year, with the most recent occurrence on February 2 [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Water Margin reported operating revenue of 2.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 326 million yuan, down 71.02% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 5.378 billion yuan, with 1.280 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Water Margin was 80,500, a decrease of 5.58% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 5.91% to 6,053 shares [2] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, the "招商中证白酒指数A" fund holds 17.7303 million shares, an increase of 1.6367 million shares from the previous period [3]

Market Overview - The market experienced significant fluctuations with all three major indices dropping over 2%, and the Sci-Tech 50 index falling over 3% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.58 trillion, a decrease of 250.8 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 4,600 stocks declined, with 123 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] Sector Performance - The liquor sector showed resilience, with stocks like Huangtai Liquor and Jinhui Liquor performing well [1] - The electric grid equipment sector also performed strongly, with multiple stocks reaching the daily limit up [1] - Conversely, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, oil and gas, chemicals, coal, and semiconductors saw significant declines, particularly the non-ferrous metals sector, which faced severe losses [1] Analyst Insights - Huatai Securities suggested that the current market pullback creates opportunities for entry, emphasizing a mid-term positive outlook for Chinese assets despite short-term liquidity pressures [2] - Zhongtai Securities recommended focusing on sectors with strong demand and certainty, particularly in commodities related to geopolitical tensions and renewable energy [3] - Guotai Securities noted the need to observe potential style shifts in the market, particularly around the Chinese New Year, and highlighted the ongoing debate regarding inflation trends leading into 2026 [4]

Group 1 - The market is expected to enter a medium to long-term consolidation phase after a short-term momentum decline [10] - The Shanghai government has initiated a program to purchase second-hand housing for affordable rental housing projects, targeting new citizens, young people, and graduates [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has approved a new national standard for automotive door handles, set to be implemented in 2027, addressing safety and usability issues [5] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have released guidelines for the construction of a low-altitude economy standard system, aiming for over 300 standards by 2030 [3] - The Ministry of Finance has introduced a temporary method for long-term asset input tax deduction, allowing full deduction for mixed-use assets upon purchase [4] - The stock of Guokai Military Industry has experienced significant price fluctuations, with a recent announcement clarifying that its commercial aerospace projects are still in the R&D phase and have minimal impact on revenue [7]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector showed resilience in the market, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) experiencing a price increase of 0.86% by the end of trading on February 2, 2026, despite an initial surge of 3.28% during the day [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The food and beverage ETF Huabao (515710) opened strong, reaching a peak increase of 3.28% before closing up 0.86% [1]. - Major liquor stocks saw significant gains, with Jinhuijiu hitting the daily limit, Shuijingfang rising by 7.44%, and Jinzongzi Jiu increasing by 5.17% [1]. - Leading liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Yanghe also closed in the green [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - CITIC Construction pointed out that the surge in the liquor sector is driven by Moutai's sales price exceeding expectations, recognized reforms, and easing real estate policies, alongside a positive outlook for PPI [1]. - Moutai's payment and delivery progress has surpassed last year's levels, and industry reforms are advancing, with expectations for the industry to bottom out by 2026, potentially increasing market share for leading brands [1]. - Current valuations in the food and beverage sector remain low, with the PE ratio of the Huabao ETF at 19.81, placing it in the 3.33% percentile of the last decade, indicating strong medium to long-term investment potential [1][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Xiangcai Securities noted that the food and beverage industry's valuation is at a historical low, despite weak market data such as retail sales and consumer confidence [3]. - The prolonged adjustment period has led to a pricing of pessimistic expectations, and with inflation showing signs of mild recovery, investment opportunities in the consumption sector are emerging [3]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on core assets within the food and beverage sector, particularly the Huabao ETF, which has a significant allocation to leading high-end liquor stocks and other beverage segments [3].